I just can't tell you how much I was hoping to write a Mizzou-Texas Tech preview this week.  But instead of moping around about it, it's on to the numbers!

Thoughts after the jump...

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Defensive Lines

1. Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
2. Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
3. Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
4. Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
5. Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
6. Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return.  Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

1. Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
2. Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
3. Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
4. Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
5. Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
6. Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference.  Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense.  Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam.  If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

1. Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
2. Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
3. Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
4. Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
5. Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
6. Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards.  The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma (17)
2. Texas (14)
3. Texas Tech (11)
4. Oklahoma State (9)
5. Baylor (8)
6. Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first.  ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

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Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

That's right, boys and girls (mostly boys)...it's that time of week again.  It's time for BTBS Box Scores!

I'll save most of my thoughts for tomorrow, but...holy crap, those are just universally atrocious numbers from Colorado.  Their best down (2nd) was not even half as good as Mizzou's best down (2nd).  Their success rates on Non-Passing Downs (30.0%) were 10% worse than Mizzou's success rates on Passing Downs (40.0%).  Missouri's close-game S&P was 2680% that of Colorado's.  I don't mean to pile on, really (I like the folks at Ralphie Report), but...SEMO's offense looked about twice as good as Colorado's on Faurot Field.  Coach Nick Nolte's got some work to do.

Other Big 12 games after the jump.

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A few quick Big 12 recaps and comments for you...

• Nebraska 35, San Jose State 12 - SJSU got it to 14-12 early in Q4 until NU finally kicked it into gear.  Marlon Lucky's Heisman campaign isn't going well.  Nor is his All-Conference campaign.  Corn Nation looks at the goods and bads.
  
• Colorado 31, Eastern Washington 24 - Well...I guess almost losing to EWU is better than losing to EWU.  Darrell Scott struggled to get going, but I'm wondering how much of that is the O-line.  Ralphie Report looks at CU's first-down struggles.
  
• Iowa State 48, Kent State 28 - REVENGE!!!  Though for the second straight week, ISU's scoreboard blowout didn't match the stats.  Clone Chronicles analyzes what's up.
  
• Kansas 29, Louisiana Tech 0 - If I'm a KU fan (and I'm very much not), I'm starting to get really, really worried about the running game.  3rd-stringer Angus Quigley did well after Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford combined for 39 yards on 14 carries.  But the defense is obviously looking good.  A nice recap at Rock Chalk Talk.
  
• Kansas State 69, Montana State 10 - Three return TDs + really bad opponent = 59-point win.
• Oklahoma 52, Cincinnati 26 - Cincy acquitted themselves relatively well, but my buddy's predictions of greatness for Ryan Broyles turned out to be pretty accurate.  CC Machine has some initial reactions...
  
• Texas Tech 35, Nevada 19 - Graham Harrell was only 19-for-46, and Colin Kaepernick had 350+ total yards, which means I'm looking forward to next week.  I'm not scared of a loss, but I'm looking forward to an interesting challenge.  Double T with thoughts and links.
  
• Texas 42, UTEP 13 - Watched some of this one.  Colt McCoy is at his best when he's running around and improvising, and he looked good last night (as did Quan Cosby).  The defense still has some improving to do, but they continuously came up with big hits when they needed to.  Nothing postgame-ish at BON yet, but I'm sure it's coming...
• Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37 - Nothing like putting up 42 points in the second half to blow open a tight game.  Kendall Hunter (210 yards rushing) and Dez Bryant (236 receiving) looked, shall we say, solid.
• Texas A&M 28, New Mexico 22 - The Jerrod Johnson era begins.  A&M's defense confused UNM's QB (Porterie) pretty well, making up for the injuries to Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson.
  
• Baylor 51, Northwestern State 6 - Check out Robert Griffin's numbers.  Even against a 1-AA opponent, he looked pretty outstanding for a true freshman.  I'm not saying Baylor's an emerging threat or anything, but they might at least resemble a real team soon.

South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

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