Defensive Lines

1. Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
2. Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
3. Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
4. Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
5. Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
6. Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return.  Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

1. Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
2. Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
3. Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
4. Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
5. Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
6. Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference.  Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense.  Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam.  If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

1. Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
2. Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
3. Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
4. Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
5. Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
6. Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards.  The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma (17)
2. Texas (14)
3. Texas Tech (11)
4. Oklahoma State (9)
5. Baylor (8)
6. Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first.  ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

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Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Atch is out today...he sent in his contribution below...

1 - Three teams remain in the running for the Big 12 South--Texas, OU, and Texas Tech.  Of the three, who would you most rather face in title game, and who would you least rather face?

2 - Wants aside, who do you think we will face?  (And since your answer will be directly impacted by this game, who wins OU-TT this weekend?)

3 - Favorite moment from the 2008 season thus far?

4 - A week later, I'll ask it again: Any thoughts about your local basketball club yet?

5 - Both Missouri and Kansas have ridiculous numbers of freshmen on this year's basketball team...just a week into their respective careers, who's your favorite to this point?

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I don't have many masochistic tendencies, so we're not going to spend a ton of time analyzing Saturday night's destruction.  Instead we're going to take a (relatively) quick look at the BTBS 'box scores' for each of last Saturday's games...

• So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race?  Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind.  You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality.  This game is why my 'close game' designation was created.  While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count.  The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end.  The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second.
• This game was also why I do the "% close" number.  Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri.  But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions).  UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.
• I'm not sure I've ever seen quarter-to-quarter splits as large as Mizzou's in this game.  I mean, 0.226 to 0.814 to 1.168 to 1.742?  To a nerd like me, that's impressive (even though it signifies nothing).
• Seriously, UT would have beaten anybody in the country by double digits Saturday night.  That show (Q1 in particular) was unreal.  A buddy of mine from Dallas went down to the game and said he was at least heartened by the fact that he got to watch a team play perfect for a half.  Even if it wasn't Mizzou, being in the presence of greatness is still being in the presence of greatness.

On to the other games after the jump...

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As we look at this season's to-date BTBS stats, keep in mind that we can approximately say that Mizzou and UT have played similar schedules.  I mean, OU > OSU, but Illinois > anybody UT played in non-conference.  In the end, it's more or less balanced out (to my naked eye, anyway), and we can take these stats at something close to face value.

Thoughts...

• This game will likely lie on the right arms of the two BFF's, Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy, as both teams have pretty stout run defenses.  UT's run defense is a little better, but MU's run offense is better, so unless Ogbonnaya continues to break off 1-2 big runs a game, this is pretty much a wash.
• One thing I find interesting: UT allows 2.28 line yards per carry.  So does Mizzou.  That's a very good number, but looking at the overall rushing numbers, I'd have expected a little better for UT.  For instance, they allow a 0.455 rushing S&P (compared to Mizzou's 0.542); but UT and Mizzou have allowed the exact same LY/carry.  The reason: while Mizzou has allowed few big rushes (longest five rushes: 68, 41, 35, 22, 18), UT has allowed almost no big rushes (longest five carries: 26, 26, 21, 21, 19).  Really, the only difference between the Mizzou rush defense and that of Texas is Kendall Hunter's 68-yard TD run and a 41-yard scamper by Illinois' Daniel Dufrene (which I do not even remotely remember--that game was a Shiner-and-Jager-fueled blur).
  
• Both teams are good at the leverage (avoiding Passing Downs on offense, moving opponents toward them on defense).  They stay near 80% leverage while holding their opponents near 60-65%.  Mizzou held OSU near 65%, while Texas held OU to 66%.  Again, this is important because even teams who generally perform well on Passing Downs can get bitten by them eventually (Mizzou against OSU, for instance).  The lower the leverage %, the more passing downs a team has to face.
• To no one's surprise, Mizzou has been more explosive than Texas to date (0.54 PPP vs 0.48 PPP).  UT's PPP has risen in the last couple of games, thanks to a few long plays to Chris Ogbonnaya.  I can't figure Ogbonnaya out--he doesn't look fast at all, but defenders can't seem to catch up to him.  And I don't know how much of his success has been due to his own skills or the skills of Colt McCoy and the guys blocking for him, but he's torched a decent defense (Colorado) and a good one (Oklahoma) so far, and you can't argue with results.
• Both teams have similar S&P margins, both overall and in close games.  In close games, MU is +0.427 (1.125 on offense, 0.698 on defense), while UT is +0.453.
• Both teams have the tendency to give up some big pass plays (they both allow at least 0.34 PPP in the passing game), but the key for Texas will be holding Mizzou as close as possible to the 37% success rate that Texas opponents have managed so far, instead of the 62% Mizzou has put up.  And it all ends up tying together.  An unsuccessful passing attempt here and there means more Passing Downs...and Mizzou sucked on Passing Downs against OSU.
• And speaking once more of Passing Downs, both defenses have been identically strong in this regard.
• Turnovers could always swing either way, but so far Mizzou has had a tendency of making more of the turnover game than UT has--they've benefitted from t/o's by about 3 more points per game.
• Mizzou's offense is best in Q1 and Q3, while their defense is best in Q2 and Q4, but overall they've been pretty consistently strong in both categories.  Meanwhile, OU game aside, UT has been best on offense in the first half and best on defense in the second half.
• Texas' defense has the overall advantage on Mizzou's, but Mizzou has been better (and allowed fewer big plays) on third downs.  Keep that in mind.

Projections after the jump.

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So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step.  I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing.  Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week.  Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs.  You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently?  If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

• So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
• They split in turnover margin...
• They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
• They won the field-position battle...
• They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
• They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
• They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
• And they lost.  Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
• There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge.  Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin).  OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers).  Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
• Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled.  They were fast, and they didn't miss.  That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

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Bryan Burwell says the Mizzou defense feels slighted.  First of all, good.  It's always great when you can play the "nobody respects us" card.  Second, they're right.  Somehow the Illinois game, despite being a relatively marquee non-conference win and despite the never getting within one possession in the second half, has resulted in us having less respect than we would have gotten if we'd just pummeled UL-Monroe or something to start the season.

The Missourian has a relatively interesting story about Mizzou's now-celebrated TD celebration.  Love the last sentence.

Dave Matter talks OSU with The Daily Oklahoman's Jenni Carlson.

BTS: Have you seen enough from OSU's defense to think it can stop some of the top teams left on the schedule?

Carlson: Stop them, no. But it might be able to slow them down a bit. Again, I'm not really sure that the Cowboys have been truly tested yet this season. It will be interesting to see how they do against Missouri. No way will they stop the Tigers, but if they can get some stops and maybe a couple turnovers, that would be a big step in the right direction for OSU.

More OSU Links!

• KC Star: Defense could decide gunfight at Mizzou
• PowerMizzou: Three Tiger keys against Oklahoma State
• Tulsa World: OSU's penalty problems
• Daily Oklahoman: The Cowboys are in a new position - 5-0 and in the spotlight
• Tulsa World: Big-play athletes (Jeremy Maclin & Dez Bryant)
• Daily Oklahoman: OSU football: Answering the skeptics
• O'Colly (OSU student paper): Perrish Cox's three biggest fans
• O'Colly: Into the fire

Jake Harry: the invisible man.

After the game, a reporter facetiously asked MU Coach Gary Pinkel if he planned to prorate Harry’s scholarship.

Quarterback Chase Daniel, the man most responsible for Harry’s irrelevance, took the joke a step further.

" ‘Why do you even need a scholarship? You don’t play,’ " he asked Harry in jest. "He laughs about it, too. He says, ‘Just miss a pass on third down. Let me get on the field once or twice a game.’ "

Harry didn’t get that chance against the Cornhuskers and has kicked only nine times in five games. It’s an occupational hazard when you punt for the third-ranked Tigers (5-0, 1-0 Big 12), who are averaging 53 points entering Saturday’s game against 17th-ranked Oklahoma State (5-0, 1-0).

Not that Harry is complaining.

The Mizzou offense: an embarrassment of riches.

Not even Don James thinks Gary Pinkel would leave Mizzou for Washington.

Finally, a quick basketball recruiting note: a new big man has emerged on Mizzou's radar screen, and he's got a great name.  That's right, I'm talking about 6'10, 240 Jarrid Famous, who has offers from Mizzou, Xavier, and seemingly the entire bottom half of the Big East.

Thoughts...

• OSU's offensive leverage total is a little low to me, considering they haven't played many great defenses.  A 72% rate against iffy competition means Mizzou could force them into the high-60% range.  What that means is, a lot of passing downs for OSU.  Now, they've done well so far in Passing Downs this year, but still...the more PD's for OSU, the better for Mizzou.
• Both teams are obviously explosive on offense and decent on defense, but you see from the numbers that, against slightly harder competition, Mizzou's offensive and defensive numbers have both been a bit better.  That's encouraging.  However, in close games, OSU's defense has been mighty stout so far.
• OSU's 3.63 Line Yards per carry is simply astounding.  That's really, really good.  Combined with the meager two sacks they've allowed, you begin to think that OSU has a pretty damn stout offensive line, huh?
• Meanwhile, MU's only giving up 0.16 PPP rushing.  Even when they give up some yards, they're pretty empty yards.
• OSU and MU have pretty much identical S&P numbers in the passing game, but the sheer quantity of passing tells you something.  OSU appears to be an "establish the run, beat 'em deep" team...which is obviously a bit different than Mizzou's strategy.
• Mizzou's success rate is 62.1% on Non-Passing Downs.  Oy.
• Both defenses are good on Passing Downs, but Mizzou's has been a smidge better.  Take out the horrific breakdowns against Illinois four games ago, and Mizzou's Passing Down breakdowns have been minimal at best.
• Both offenses are great in every quarter (I'm ignoring Q4 numbers, as neither teams have played many meaningful plays in Q4), but they're best in Q3.  Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense seems to be iffy in the 'gameplan' quarters (Q1/Q3) and dominant in the 'talent' quarters (Q2/Q4), while OSU's defense gets a little worse each quarter.  Keep that last point in mind if they're actually slowing Mizzou down early.

Projections after the jump.

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1 - I'm not going to mention Spit-Gate here (whoops, I just did...scratch that!), but instead I'll ask you this: what was your single favorite moment from last Saturday night's excorcism in Lincoln?

2 - Can OSU slow down Missouri enough on Saturday night to keep it a game late into the fourth quarter?

3 - Kansas-ISU: nice recovery and win by KU or warning sign of bad things to come for the Beakers?

4 - Name me the teams you think could beat Missouri right now (on a neutral field).

5 - Big 12 Picks!

Colorado at Kansas
Nebraska at Texas Tech
Kansas State at Texas A&M
Iowa State at Baylor

And the marquee matchups...

Oklahoma vs Texas
Oklahoma State at Missouri

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For a better look at Oklahoma State, we turned to one of the blogosphere's newest additions: Pokes Pride. Here's what Pokes Pride had to say about the Cowboys and how they matchup with Mizzou this weekend.

RMN: Just exactly how good is this OSU team? Is it hard to judge OSU from playing the likes of struggling Wazzou and Texas A&M teams?

PP: Good Question. We will find that out when we play a more talented team (Saturday). I do believe it's a little hard to tell how good we are when we've played horrid teams in A&M, MSU and WSU. Our offense has been steamrolling teams all year but then again, didn't Cal drop 66 on Wazzou? I'm not trying to say that our offense isn't good enough because they are extremely talented, but we have yet to play a stronger defensive team. As for our defense, they are starting to create more turnovers and pressure the quarterback. However, our run defense still needs a lot of improvement.

RMN: Much like Mizzou, OSU is putting up eye-popping offensive numbers. Obviously, Hunter, Toston, Bryant and Robinson are all great players, but what is the key to slowing down the Pokes' offense?

PP: Stopping the run should be the only concern for Mizzou. We are 2nd in the nation with 315 rush yards/game so If they can stop the run, they will take away our offense. Our passing game hasn't been the same since last year (that might have something to do with our stronger running game). Dez Bryant has basically been the only receiver thrown to all year, so if he is covered, there is not much we can do through the air, unless Pettigrew plays.

RMN: As we've harped on many times at RMN, the only shot teams have against Mizzou's offense is to create pressure with the front four. What should we expect from OSU's defensive line?

PP: The weakest part of our defense has been our D-Line. I have no idea what Gundy's plan is on getting to Daniel, but it better be a good one. Our pass defense has actually been pretty good so far but Maclin scares me. He could have a HUGE day.

(More questions plus a prediction after the jump)

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