South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

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2007 was a year of emergence and disappearance in Stillwater.  The offense was supposed to dominate with Bobby Reid throwing to Adarius Bowman and handing off to Dontrell Savage, while a relatively young defense was supposed to struggle a bit.  A few injuries, collapses and tirades later, Zac Robinson was throwing to Dez Bryant and handing to Kendall Hunter.  The good news was that the emerging offensive threats were both good and younger than their predecessors.  The bad news was...the defense still stunk.

It's BTBS Day once again...time to figure out how good the offense really was, how bad the defense really was, and what's possibly changed for 2008.

Quick Stats Overview

(I mentioned during my '+' Concept post a couple weeks ago that a lot of the defensive averages were over 100...well, I've adjusted all those.  The national average on every one of these stats is now exactly 100.0.  Just so you know.)

Total Offense

OffEqPts+ (all plays): 150.77
OffS&P+ (all plays): 132.30
OffS&P+ (close games only): 141.12

Rushing Offense

OffRunEqPts+ (all): 147.82
OffRunS&P+ (all): 136.00
OffRunS&P+ (close):140.64

Passing Offense

OffPassEqPts+ (all): 139.88
OffPassS&P+ (all): 133.23
OffPassS&P+ (close):149.58

Total Defense

DefEqPts+ (all): 89.74
DefS&P+ (all): 90.88
DefS&P+ (close): 100.22

Rushing Defense

DefEqRunPts+ (all): 93.02
DefRunS&P+ (all): 100.28
DefRunS&P+ (close): 107.39

Passing Defense

DefEqPassPts+ (all): 65.50
DefPassS&P+ (all): 72.71
DefPassS&P+ (close): 75.96

Game-By-Game EqPts Scores

9/1: Georgia 30.9, Oklahoma State 16.4
9/8: Oklahoma State 33.5, Florida Atlantic 1.3
9/14: Troy 37.3, Oklahoma State 20.8
9/22: Oklahoma State 55.2, Texas Tech 46.2
9/29: Oklahoma State 37.1, Sam Houston State 9.3
10/13: Oklahoma State 47.3, Nebraska 15.6
10/20: Kansas State 36.4, Oklahoma State 32.1
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2
11/10: Kansas 37.6, Oklahoma State 28.2
11/16: Oklahoma State 45.2, Baylor 11.7
11/23: Oklahoma 48.3, Oklahoma State 13.8
12/31: Oklahoma State 42.8, Indiana 27.8

Offense

Predicting when OSU was going to explode and when they were going to implode was tough to do last year.  Their EqPts+ performances ranged from 78.8 to 241.9.  Two of their worst EqPts+ performances of the season were against Georgia (83.4) and Oklahoma (81.0), which is somewhat predictable--OSU's biggest strength is its pure speed, and teams who could match that speed were able to dominate.  However, their very worst was against Texas A&M (78.8)...who was not known for their speed.  Meanwhile, their best performances were unpredictable as well.  They lit up Texas Tech so badly (241.9) that Mike Leach prompted his DC's resignation after the game.  They also put up a decent performance against a good Kansas defense (184.7...albeit a lot of their good plays came while playing from behind).  They also kept up with a reasonably fast Texas defense (178.0) and roughed up Indiana (170.9) real nice.  They ended up swinging an okay 109.4 against Troy, though the game was out of reach so fast that most of the stats were meaningless.  In all, their averages were obviously quite good, but the up and down nature of their performance held them back.

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