Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Thoughts...

• OSU's offensive leverage total is a little low to me, considering they haven't played many great defenses.  A 72% rate against iffy competition means Mizzou could force them into the high-60% range.  What that means is, a lot of passing downs for OSU.  Now, they've done well so far in Passing Downs this year, but still...the more PD's for OSU, the better for Mizzou.
• Both teams are obviously explosive on offense and decent on defense, but you see from the numbers that, against slightly harder competition, Mizzou's offensive and defensive numbers have both been a bit better.  That's encouraging.  However, in close games, OSU's defense has been mighty stout so far.
• OSU's 3.63 Line Yards per carry is simply astounding.  That's really, really good.  Combined with the meager two sacks they've allowed, you begin to think that OSU has a pretty damn stout offensive line, huh?
• Meanwhile, MU's only giving up 0.16 PPP rushing.  Even when they give up some yards, they're pretty empty yards.
• OSU and MU have pretty much identical S&P numbers in the passing game, but the sheer quantity of passing tells you something.  OSU appears to be an "establish the run, beat 'em deep" team...which is obviously a bit different than Mizzou's strategy.
• Mizzou's success rate is 62.1% on Non-Passing Downs.  Oy.
• Both defenses are good on Passing Downs, but Mizzou's has been a smidge better.  Take out the horrific breakdowns against Illinois four games ago, and Mizzou's Passing Down breakdowns have been minimal at best.
• Both offenses are great in every quarter (I'm ignoring Q4 numbers, as neither teams have played many meaningful plays in Q4), but they're best in Q3.  Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense seems to be iffy in the 'gameplan' quarters (Q1/Q3) and dominant in the 'talent' quarters (Q2/Q4), while OSU's defense gets a little worse each quarter.  Keep that last point in mind if they're actually slowing Mizzou down early.

Projections after the jump.

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A few quick Big 12 recaps and comments for you...

• Nebraska 35, San Jose State 12 - SJSU got it to 14-12 early in Q4 until NU finally kicked it into gear.  Marlon Lucky's Heisman campaign isn't going well.  Nor is his All-Conference campaign.  Corn Nation looks at the goods and bads.
  
• Colorado 31, Eastern Washington 24 - Well...I guess almost losing to EWU is better than losing to EWU.  Darrell Scott struggled to get going, but I'm wondering how much of that is the O-line.  Ralphie Report looks at CU's first-down struggles.
  
• Iowa State 48, Kent State 28 - REVENGE!!!  Though for the second straight week, ISU's scoreboard blowout didn't match the stats.  Clone Chronicles analyzes what's up.
  
• Kansas 29, Louisiana Tech 0 - If I'm a KU fan (and I'm very much not), I'm starting to get really, really worried about the running game.  3rd-stringer Angus Quigley did well after Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford combined for 39 yards on 14 carries.  But the defense is obviously looking good.  A nice recap at Rock Chalk Talk.
  
• Kansas State 69, Montana State 10 - Three return TDs + really bad opponent = 59-point win.
• Oklahoma 52, Cincinnati 26 - Cincy acquitted themselves relatively well, but my buddy's predictions of greatness for Ryan Broyles turned out to be pretty accurate.  CC Machine has some initial reactions...
  
• Texas Tech 35, Nevada 19 - Graham Harrell was only 19-for-46, and Colin Kaepernick had 350+ total yards, which means I'm looking forward to next week.  I'm not scared of a loss, but I'm looking forward to an interesting challenge.  Double T with thoughts and links.
  
• Texas 42, UTEP 13 - Watched some of this one.  Colt McCoy is at his best when he's running around and improvising, and he looked good last night (as did Quan Cosby).  The defense still has some improving to do, but they continuously came up with big hits when they needed to.  Nothing postgame-ish at BON yet, but I'm sure it's coming...
• Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37 - Nothing like putting up 42 points in the second half to blow open a tight game.  Kendall Hunter (210 yards rushing) and Dez Bryant (236 receiving) looked, shall we say, solid.
• Texas A&M 28, New Mexico 22 - The Jerrod Johnson era begins.  A&M's defense confused UNM's QB (Porterie) pretty well, making up for the injuries to Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson.
  
• Baylor 51, Northwestern State 6 - Check out Robert Griffin's numbers.  Even against a 1-AA opponent, he looked pretty outstanding for a true freshman.  I'm not saying Baylor's an emerging threat or anything, but they might at least resemble a real team soon.

2007 was a year of emergence and disappearance in Stillwater.  The offense was supposed to dominate with Bobby Reid throwing to Adarius Bowman and handing off to Dontrell Savage, while a relatively young defense was supposed to struggle a bit.  A few injuries, collapses and tirades later, Zac Robinson was throwing to Dez Bryant and handing to Kendall Hunter.  The good news was that the emerging offensive threats were both good and younger than their predecessors.  The bad news was...the defense still stunk.

It's BTBS Day once again...time to figure out how good the offense really was, how bad the defense really was, and what's possibly changed for 2008.

Quick Stats Overview

(I mentioned during my '+' Concept post a couple weeks ago that a lot of the defensive averages were over 100...well, I've adjusted all those.  The national average on every one of these stats is now exactly 100.0.  Just so you know.)

Total Offense

OffEqPts+ (all plays): 150.77
OffS&P+ (all plays): 132.30
OffS&P+ (close games only): 141.12

Rushing Offense

OffRunEqPts+ (all): 147.82
OffRunS&P+ (all): 136.00
OffRunS&P+ (close):140.64

Passing Offense

OffPassEqPts+ (all): 139.88
OffPassS&P+ (all): 133.23
OffPassS&P+ (close):149.58

Total Defense

DefEqPts+ (all): 89.74
DefS&P+ (all): 90.88
DefS&P+ (close): 100.22

Rushing Defense

DefEqRunPts+ (all): 93.02
DefRunS&P+ (all): 100.28
DefRunS&P+ (close): 107.39

Passing Defense

DefEqPassPts+ (all): 65.50
DefPassS&P+ (all): 72.71
DefPassS&P+ (close): 75.96

Game-By-Game EqPts Scores

9/1: Georgia 30.9, Oklahoma State 16.4
9/8: Oklahoma State 33.5, Florida Atlantic 1.3
9/14: Troy 37.3, Oklahoma State 20.8
9/22: Oklahoma State 55.2, Texas Tech 46.2
9/29: Oklahoma State 37.1, Sam Houston State 9.3
10/13: Oklahoma State 47.3, Nebraska 15.6
10/20: Kansas State 36.4, Oklahoma State 32.1
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2
11/10: Kansas 37.6, Oklahoma State 28.2
11/16: Oklahoma State 45.2, Baylor 11.7
11/23: Oklahoma 48.3, Oklahoma State 13.8
12/31: Oklahoma State 42.8, Indiana 27.8

Offense

Predicting when OSU was going to explode and when they were going to implode was tough to do last year.  Their EqPts+ performances ranged from 78.8 to 241.9.  Two of their worst EqPts+ performances of the season were against Georgia (83.4) and Oklahoma (81.0), which is somewhat predictable--OSU's biggest strength is its pure speed, and teams who could match that speed were able to dominate.  However, their very worst was against Texas A&M (78.8)...who was not known for their speed.  Meanwhile, their best performances were unpredictable as well.  They lit up Texas Tech so badly (241.9) that Mike Leach prompted his DC's resignation after the game.  They also put up a decent performance against a good Kansas defense (184.7...albeit a lot of their good plays came while playing from behind).  They also kept up with a reasonably fast Texas defense (178.0) and roughed up Indiana (170.9) real nice.  They ended up swinging an okay 109.4 against Troy, though the game was out of reach so fast that most of the stats were meaningless.  In all, their averages were obviously quite good, but the up and down nature of their performance held them back.

Continue reading this post »

That's right...it's OSU week on RMN!  OSU was my default second-favorite team growing up...that's really neither here nor there, so let's just move on to the links.

First, the quick summary: OSU in 2008 will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator, and they'll have plenty to work with--QB Zac Robinson (who would be an all-conference caliber performer in any other conference), a stable of potential stud RBs, an "all-conference" (what a joke) tight end, Dez Bryant at WR, and a ton of returning experience at OL. Meanwhile, if there's reason for overly-optimistic post-spring chatter, it's the potential improvement (and depth) of the defense. The LB corps and secondary return mostly intact, and while the DL lost quite a bit of experience, there's a lot of potential with former big-time recruits and good athletes. In all, despite losing a big number of lettermen from the 2007 squad, they return athleticism and potential in each unit. Will that be enough to make OSU a contender in a South Division loaded with a Top 5 Oklahoma team, a hungry Texas team, and a flavor-of-the-month Texas Tech squad? Unlikely, but I guess you never know. At least they'll probably be better than ATM, right?

Rivals.com has listed three Cowboys on their position rankings: Zac Robinson is the #16 QB, Dez Bryant the #19 WR, and Brandon "All-Conference" Pettigrew the #4 TE.

How'd the Orange & White Game go? Let's find out! About 20,000 fans saw a strangely low-scoring 9-7 win for the Orange (what was the score of Mizzou's game? Something like 436-358?) Sign of an improved defense? Dez Bryant and RB Kendall Hunter both had decent games despite the lack of points, while guys like Seb Clements, Jamie Blatnick, and Justin Gent were defensive heroes.

The defense could be further assisted by the emergence of former star recruit Richetti Jones (sorry, The Richetti Jones), who may finally be fully recovered from a broken hip.

Despite the fact that his new offensive coordinator's name is Trooper (!!), Mike Gundy is considering calling the plays during games this fall. Either way, OSU's (and Mizzou's, for that matter) style could be helped by the new clock rule changes, according to a Daily Oklahoman blogger.

It wouldn't make sense to create an OSU Links post and not mention T. Boone Pickens at least once. So I'll go with this Barry Tramel column, talking about how the pretty, new, massively expanded stadium (paid for with Pickens' scrilla) now needs to be kinda sorta filled.

You don't build a 60,000-seat palace with a county fair attitude. You build 60,000 seats because you want them filled.

It's Gundy's job to fill them. He's got to get some help from the marketing department and the business office and even the hot-dog vendors. But in big-time college football, it falls upon the coach to fill the seats.

OSU averaged 39,857 fans in 2007, so there's not going to be any jump to 60,000 in 2008. But the ascension must start.

Gundy doesn't seem all that worked up about the mandate. "My job is to put a good team on the field," he said.

Gundy's done a so-so job of that the past two years but he's done a heck of a job giving fans their money's worth. Football at the Boonedock has been the best show in the state the last two years.

Victories of 41-29 over Nebraska, 49-45 over Texas Tech and 41-39 over Kansas State; losses of 34-33 in overtime to Texas A&M, 27-21 in Bedlam, 38-35 to Texas and 43-28 to Kansas. Poke fans don't always go home happy from Stillwater, but they always go home entertained.

Finally, let's visit YouTube for highlights of 'Pokes new...
...and old...
Oy.