Quick bitter impressions of Texas' 2007 season: Colt McCoy regressed, the secondary couldn't stop anybody, the LBs were slow, the offense leaned too much on Jamaal Charles, and Texas only won...10 games.  Let's take a look at how 'bad' Texas really was last year and how much improvement they can expect in 2008.

Initial Stat Assault

Here are the 'EqPts' scores from the 2007 slate:

9/1: Texas 21.6, Arkansas State 11.0 (real score: 21-13)
9/8: Texas 26.4, TCU 3.3 (34-13)
9/15: Texas 19.8, Central Florida 18.7 (35-32)
9/22: Texas 46.4, Rice 6.9 (58-14)
9/29: Texas 22.1, Kansas State 15.5 (21-41...KSU had like 13 special teams TDs)
10/6: Oklahoma 23.5, Texas 21.2 (28-21)
10/13: Texas 46.5, Iowa State 6.8 (56-3)
10/20: Texas 26.9, Baylor 6.0 (31-10)
10/27: Texas 28.9, Nebraska 21.5 (28-25)
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2 (38-35)
11/10: Texas 51.4, Texas Tech 35.2 (59-43)
11/23: Texas A&M 41.7, Texas 16.4 (38-30)
12/27: Texas 41.3, Arizona State 13.1 (52-34)

* KSU's win in Austin last year was possibly the flukiest win I've ever seen from a BTBS perspective.  They should have lost by 7, and they won by 20.

* At the same time, UT had no business even being on the same field as ATM, yet they cut it close at the end.

* In the end, the 'disappointing' 10-3 season should have really been 11-2.  And UT's only true bad performance was against ATM.  But thank god UT did lose to ATM, as otherwise we'd have been relegated to whooping Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl (after being #1 on 12/1), with UT-Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, and...well, I really enjoyed my trip to Dallas.

More stats!

Offense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 47.1% / 0.46 / 0.926
Passing: 46.1% / 0.38 / 0.837
TOTAL: 46.6% / 0.42 / 0.884

Rushing (CLOSE): 46.1% / 0.42 / 0.877
Passing (CLOSE): 45.8% / 0.35 / 0.804
TOTAL (CLOSE): 45.9% / 0.38 / 0.842

Passing Downs S&P: 0.576
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 1.018

Redzone S&P: 1.052

Q1 S&P: 0.858
Q2 S&P: 0.902
Q3 S&P: 0.790
Q4 S&P: 0.988

1st Down S&P: 0.932
2nd Down S&P: 0.796
3rd Down S&P: 0.803

Pressure (i.e. Q4 and close) S&P: 1.169

Line Yards/Carry: 3.12

* Considering their QB didn't seem to have any arm strength and their best WR got hurt, these are pretty solid offensive numbers.

* UT's success rates (efficiency) were pretty decent, but their PPP numbers (explosiveness) were only so-so.  This reflects the lack of a go-to WR, and the fact that Jamaal Charles only seemed to get going in Q4.

* UT was better overall than in close situations, meaning when they got things rolling (against the Rice's and Iowa State's of the world...and, to be fair, against Texas Tech too), they were great...but in tight games they were only above average.

* Their "pressure" numbers were aided in part by the fact that they didn't blow out teams with bad defenses like Nebraska, Arkansas State, and Central Florida.  So when 'pressure' situations emerged, they moved the ball well.  Still, though, they came through in those games.

Defense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 41.3% / 0.23 / 0.643
Passing: 42.4% / 0.26 / 0.688
TOTAL: 41.9% / 0.25 / 0.669

Rushing (CLOSE): 41.4% / 0.23 / 0.642
Passing (CLOSE): 42.9% / 0.26 / 0.686
TOTAL (CLOSE): 42.2% / 0.24 / 0.666

Passing Downs S&P: 0.356
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 0.818

Redzone S&P: 0.639

Q1 S&P: 0.657
Q2 S&P: 0.618
Q3 S&P: 0.639
Q4 S&P: 0.757

1st Down S&P: 0.761
2nd Down S&P: 0.623
3rd Down S&P: 0.460

Pressure S&P: 0.584

Line Yards/Carry: 2.49

* These numbers really are pretty strong.  UT might not have lived up to UT standards on D, but let's not overstate the case here.

* Offenses were able to move the ball relatively efficiently (41.9% success rates were almost exactly the national average), but Texas' speed was able to cut off plays pretty quickly--opponents' PPP's were extremely low.  You could move the ball on UT, but only if you were super-patient.  And only if you got some yards on 1st down.  The strong 'Horn DL pinned its ears back in passing downs.

Continue reading this post »