Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

As we look at this season's to-date BTBS stats, keep in mind that we can approximately say that Mizzou and UT have played similar schedules.  I mean, OU > OSU, but Illinois > anybody UT played in non-conference.  In the end, it's more or less balanced out (to my naked eye, anyway), and we can take these stats at something close to face value.

Thoughts...

• This game will likely lie on the right arms of the two BFF's, Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy, as both teams have pretty stout run defenses.  UT's run defense is a little better, but MU's run offense is better, so unless Ogbonnaya continues to break off 1-2 big runs a game, this is pretty much a wash.
• One thing I find interesting: UT allows 2.28 line yards per carry.  So does Mizzou.  That's a very good number, but looking at the overall rushing numbers, I'd have expected a little better for UT.  For instance, they allow a 0.455 rushing S&P (compared to Mizzou's 0.542); but UT and Mizzou have allowed the exact same LY/carry.  The reason: while Mizzou has allowed few big rushes (longest five rushes: 68, 41, 35, 22, 18), UT has allowed almost no big rushes (longest five carries: 26, 26, 21, 21, 19).  Really, the only difference between the Mizzou rush defense and that of Texas is Kendall Hunter's 68-yard TD run and a 41-yard scamper by Illinois' Daniel Dufrene (which I do not even remotely remember--that game was a Shiner-and-Jager-fueled blur).
  
• Both teams are good at the leverage (avoiding Passing Downs on offense, moving opponents toward them on defense).  They stay near 80% leverage while holding their opponents near 60-65%.  Mizzou held OSU near 65%, while Texas held OU to 66%.  Again, this is important because even teams who generally perform well on Passing Downs can get bitten by them eventually (Mizzou against OSU, for instance).  The lower the leverage %, the more passing downs a team has to face.
• To no one's surprise, Mizzou has been more explosive than Texas to date (0.54 PPP vs 0.48 PPP).  UT's PPP has risen in the last couple of games, thanks to a few long plays to Chris Ogbonnaya.  I can't figure Ogbonnaya out--he doesn't look fast at all, but defenders can't seem to catch up to him.  And I don't know how much of his success has been due to his own skills or the skills of Colt McCoy and the guys blocking for him, but he's torched a decent defense (Colorado) and a good one (Oklahoma) so far, and you can't argue with results.
• Both teams have similar S&P margins, both overall and in close games.  In close games, MU is +0.427 (1.125 on offense, 0.698 on defense), while UT is +0.453.
• Both teams have the tendency to give up some big pass plays (they both allow at least 0.34 PPP in the passing game), but the key for Texas will be holding Mizzou as close as possible to the 37% success rate that Texas opponents have managed so far, instead of the 62% Mizzou has put up.  And it all ends up tying together.  An unsuccessful passing attempt here and there means more Passing Downs...and Mizzou sucked on Passing Downs against OSU.
• And speaking once more of Passing Downs, both defenses have been identically strong in this regard.
• Turnovers could always swing either way, but so far Mizzou has had a tendency of making more of the turnover game than UT has--they've benefitted from t/o's by about 3 more points per game.
• Mizzou's offense is best in Q1 and Q3, while their defense is best in Q2 and Q4, but overall they've been pretty consistently strong in both categories.  Meanwhile, OU game aside, UT has been best on offense in the first half and best on defense in the second half.
• Texas' defense has the overall advantage on Mizzou's, but Mizzou has been better (and allowed fewer big plays) on third downs.  Keep that in mind.

Projections after the jump.

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Quick bitter impressions of Texas' 2007 season: Colt McCoy regressed, the secondary couldn't stop anybody, the LBs were slow, the offense leaned too much on Jamaal Charles, and Texas only won...10 games.  Let's take a look at how 'bad' Texas really was last year and how much improvement they can expect in 2008.

Initial Stat Assault

Here are the 'EqPts' scores from the 2007 slate:

9/1: Texas 21.6, Arkansas State 11.0 (real score: 21-13)
9/8: Texas 26.4, TCU 3.3 (34-13)
9/15: Texas 19.8, Central Florida 18.7 (35-32)
9/22: Texas 46.4, Rice 6.9 (58-14)
9/29: Texas 22.1, Kansas State 15.5 (21-41...KSU had like 13 special teams TDs)
10/6: Oklahoma 23.5, Texas 21.2 (28-21)
10/13: Texas 46.5, Iowa State 6.8 (56-3)
10/20: Texas 26.9, Baylor 6.0 (31-10)
10/27: Texas 28.9, Nebraska 21.5 (28-25)
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2 (38-35)
11/10: Texas 51.4, Texas Tech 35.2 (59-43)
11/23: Texas A&M 41.7, Texas 16.4 (38-30)
12/27: Texas 41.3, Arizona State 13.1 (52-34)

* KSU's win in Austin last year was possibly the flukiest win I've ever seen from a BTBS perspective.  They should have lost by 7, and they won by 20.

* At the same time, UT had no business even being on the same field as ATM, yet they cut it close at the end.

* In the end, the 'disappointing' 10-3 season should have really been 11-2.  And UT's only true bad performance was against ATM.  But thank god UT did lose to ATM, as otherwise we'd have been relegated to whooping Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl (after being #1 on 12/1), with UT-Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, and...well, I really enjoyed my trip to Dallas.

More stats!

Offense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 47.1% / 0.46 / 0.926
Passing: 46.1% / 0.38 / 0.837
TOTAL: 46.6% / 0.42 / 0.884

Rushing (CLOSE): 46.1% / 0.42 / 0.877
Passing (CLOSE): 45.8% / 0.35 / 0.804
TOTAL (CLOSE): 45.9% / 0.38 / 0.842

Passing Downs S&P: 0.576
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 1.018

Redzone S&P: 1.052

Q1 S&P: 0.858
Q2 S&P: 0.902
Q3 S&P: 0.790
Q4 S&P: 0.988

1st Down S&P: 0.932
2nd Down S&P: 0.796
3rd Down S&P: 0.803

Pressure (i.e. Q4 and close) S&P: 1.169

Line Yards/Carry: 3.12

* Considering their QB didn't seem to have any arm strength and their best WR got hurt, these are pretty solid offensive numbers.

* UT's success rates (efficiency) were pretty decent, but their PPP numbers (explosiveness) were only so-so.  This reflects the lack of a go-to WR, and the fact that Jamaal Charles only seemed to get going in Q4.

* UT was better overall than in close situations, meaning when they got things rolling (against the Rice's and Iowa State's of the world...and, to be fair, against Texas Tech too), they were great...but in tight games they were only above average.

* Their "pressure" numbers were aided in part by the fact that they didn't blow out teams with bad defenses like Nebraska, Arkansas State, and Central Florida.  So when 'pressure' situations emerged, they moved the ball well.  Still, though, they came through in those games.

Defense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 41.3% / 0.23 / 0.643
Passing: 42.4% / 0.26 / 0.688
TOTAL: 41.9% / 0.25 / 0.669

Rushing (CLOSE): 41.4% / 0.23 / 0.642
Passing (CLOSE): 42.9% / 0.26 / 0.686
TOTAL (CLOSE): 42.2% / 0.24 / 0.666

Passing Downs S&P: 0.356
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 0.818

Redzone S&P: 0.639

Q1 S&P: 0.657
Q2 S&P: 0.618
Q3 S&P: 0.639
Q4 S&P: 0.757

1st Down S&P: 0.761
2nd Down S&P: 0.623
3rd Down S&P: 0.460

Pressure S&P: 0.584

Line Yards/Carry: 2.49

* These numbers really are pretty strong.  UT might not have lived up to UT standards on D, but let's not overstate the case here.

* Offenses were able to move the ball relatively efficiently (41.9% success rates were almost exactly the national average), but Texas' speed was able to cut off plays pretty quickly--opponents' PPP's were extremely low.  You could move the ball on UT, but only if you were super-patient.  And only if you got some yards on 1st down.  The strong 'Horn DL pinned its ears back in passing downs.

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