Defensive Lines

1. Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
2. Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
3. Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
4. Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
5. Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
6. Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return.  Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

1. Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
2. Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
3. Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
4. Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
5. Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
6. Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference.  Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense.  Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam.  If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

1. Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
2. Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
3. Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
4. Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
5. Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
6. Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards.  The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma (17)
2. Texas (14)
3. Texas Tech (11)
4. Oklahoma State (9)
5. Baylor (8)
6. Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first.  ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

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Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...

• How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday?  Success on 2nd downs.  They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
• How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday?  It appears the answer is in the trenches.  Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed.  This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples).  While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
• It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected.  Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P.  And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear.  Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)?  While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play).  Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou.  Is that coaching?  Execution?  Luck?  No idea.
• Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor.  OUCH.  Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance!  The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.

Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...

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South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

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Quick bitter impressions of Texas' 2007 season: Colt McCoy regressed, the secondary couldn't stop anybody, the LBs were slow, the offense leaned too much on Jamaal Charles, and Texas only won...10 games.  Let's take a look at how 'bad' Texas really was last year and how much improvement they can expect in 2008.

Initial Stat Assault

Here are the 'EqPts' scores from the 2007 slate:

9/1: Texas 21.6, Arkansas State 11.0 (real score: 21-13)
9/8: Texas 26.4, TCU 3.3 (34-13)
9/15: Texas 19.8, Central Florida 18.7 (35-32)
9/22: Texas 46.4, Rice 6.9 (58-14)
9/29: Texas 22.1, Kansas State 15.5 (21-41...KSU had like 13 special teams TDs)
10/6: Oklahoma 23.5, Texas 21.2 (28-21)
10/13: Texas 46.5, Iowa State 6.8 (56-3)
10/20: Texas 26.9, Baylor 6.0 (31-10)
10/27: Texas 28.9, Nebraska 21.5 (28-25)
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2 (38-35)
11/10: Texas 51.4, Texas Tech 35.2 (59-43)
11/23: Texas A&M 41.7, Texas 16.4 (38-30)
12/27: Texas 41.3, Arizona State 13.1 (52-34)

* KSU's win in Austin last year was possibly the flukiest win I've ever seen from a BTBS perspective.  They should have lost by 7, and they won by 20.

* At the same time, UT had no business even being on the same field as ATM, yet they cut it close at the end.

* In the end, the 'disappointing' 10-3 season should have really been 11-2.  And UT's only true bad performance was against ATM.  But thank god UT did lose to ATM, as otherwise we'd have been relegated to whooping Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl (after being #1 on 12/1), with UT-Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, and...well, I really enjoyed my trip to Dallas.

More stats!

Offense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 47.1% / 0.46 / 0.926
Passing: 46.1% / 0.38 / 0.837
TOTAL: 46.6% / 0.42 / 0.884

Rushing (CLOSE): 46.1% / 0.42 / 0.877
Passing (CLOSE): 45.8% / 0.35 / 0.804
TOTAL (CLOSE): 45.9% / 0.38 / 0.842

Passing Downs S&P: 0.576
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 1.018

Redzone S&P: 1.052

Q1 S&P: 0.858
Q2 S&P: 0.902
Q3 S&P: 0.790
Q4 S&P: 0.988

1st Down S&P: 0.932
2nd Down S&P: 0.796
3rd Down S&P: 0.803

Pressure (i.e. Q4 and close) S&P: 1.169

Line Yards/Carry: 3.12

* Considering their QB didn't seem to have any arm strength and their best WR got hurt, these are pretty solid offensive numbers.

* UT's success rates (efficiency) were pretty decent, but their PPP numbers (explosiveness) were only so-so.  This reflects the lack of a go-to WR, and the fact that Jamaal Charles only seemed to get going in Q4.

* UT was better overall than in close situations, meaning when they got things rolling (against the Rice's and Iowa State's of the world...and, to be fair, against Texas Tech too), they were great...but in tight games they were only above average.

* Their "pressure" numbers were aided in part by the fact that they didn't blow out teams with bad defenses like Nebraska, Arkansas State, and Central Florida.  So when 'pressure' situations emerged, they moved the ball well.  Still, though, they came through in those games.

Defense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 41.3% / 0.23 / 0.643
Passing: 42.4% / 0.26 / 0.688
TOTAL: 41.9% / 0.25 / 0.669

Rushing (CLOSE): 41.4% / 0.23 / 0.642
Passing (CLOSE): 42.9% / 0.26 / 0.686
TOTAL (CLOSE): 42.2% / 0.24 / 0.666

Passing Downs S&P: 0.356
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 0.818

Redzone S&P: 0.639

Q1 S&P: 0.657
Q2 S&P: 0.618
Q3 S&P: 0.639
Q4 S&P: 0.757

1st Down S&P: 0.761
2nd Down S&P: 0.623
3rd Down S&P: 0.460

Pressure S&P: 0.584

Line Yards/Carry: 2.49

* These numbers really are pretty strong.  UT might not have lived up to UT standards on D, but let's not overstate the case here.

* Offenses were able to move the ball relatively efficiently (41.9% success rates were almost exactly the national average), but Texas' speed was able to cut off plays pretty quickly--opponents' PPP's were extremely low.  You could move the ball on UT, but only if you were super-patient.  And only if you got some yards on 1st down.  The strong 'Horn DL pinned its ears back in passing downs.

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