Part One.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Defense (particularly on Passing Downs)
• Defensive Points Per Play
• Q4 Rushing Offense
• Rushing Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#1: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#2: Defensive Q1 S&P+, Defensive 2nd Down S&P+, Defensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#106: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#93: Offensive 2nd Down Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#91: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+

With the program Frank Beamer has established at this point, and with the current status of the ACC, how far do you think Virginia Tech is capable of falling in a given year?  However you answer that question, that's what you're predicting for the Hokies in '08, as they are damn near starting from scratch at many, many positions.  Twelve starters are gone, including the top RB, four top receivers, sacks leader, and top three tacklers.  Is Beamer Ball well-established enough that returning personnel doesn't really matter--they're going to win their division (or seriously threaten to) anyway?

We start on offense, where there's at least some continuity at QB...though you could make the case that there's a little too much continuity.  Both Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor return.  Combined, Syrod Glennlor went for 2700 passing yards, a 17-8 TD-INT ratio, and about 400 rushing yards.  As long as harmony is maintained, this can be a pretty decent QB duo, but you always have to worry about clashing egos here.  Meanwhile, 4 starting OL's return as well, including star guard Sergio Render, who has started 26 games in two years.  VT only ranked #54 in the country in Line Yards+, and they gave up a ridiculous 54 sacks as well, so it's not like the line is going to be fabulous, but it will need to be much better to compensate for the dearth of ability and experience at the non-QB skill positions.

At RB, the Hokies are in the middle of a mind-boggling 6-way race for the starting job.  Juniors Kenny Lewis and Jahre Cheeseman (and maybe RSFr Josh Oglesby) currently lead the battle to replace Branden Ore, who was dismissed in the spring, but was extremely overrated--read: 3.7 yards per carry in '07--anyway.  None of the candidates have been very impressive, and you can't figure VT improves much in the rushing game.  Meanwhile, the leading returning receiver (TE Sam Wheeler) had all of 15 catches a year ago.  With the running game being only decent, it's going to be up to guys like sophomore Zach Luckett (UPDATE, 8/18: Luckett has been suspended indefinitely, so...strike that name, I guess), freshman Jarrett Boykin, converted QB Ike Whitaker, and RSFr Danny Coale catching passes, and somebody needs to turn into a big-play threat.

So with an offense in disrepair, VT will rely on its defense to stay competitive.  Only, they have to replace three starters on the DL, two big-name LBs in Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall, and All-American CB Brandon Flowers.  There's still some star power here--CB Macho Harris, safety Kam Chancellor, possibly DE Orion Martin--and it's impossible to imagine a Frank Beamer team being even only above-average on D--but depth could be an issue.

Verdict: Like I said at the top, what's your answer to "It's impossible to imagine a Frank Beamer team being worse than ___"?  Because that's where they're going to finish this year.  They're proven at QB, RG...and that's about it.  But they're still going to have a chance at the Coastal Division title, because it's not like anybody else is going to run away with it.

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