I doubt this one becomes as long as the typical BTBS usually is, simply because I wrote a BTBS on Illinois about three months ago, and it's not like any games have happened since then.  But I still have some things to talk about.

'+' Projections

For one thing, using '+' ratings, we can actually somewhat project some points.  How, you ask?  Simple.  The EqPts+ number simply compares a team's performance with the averages of their opponents.  So watch what we can do...

Mizzou Rushing

• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.06
• Projection #1: 16.20
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts+: 165.11
• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 9.82

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.01

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 12.00 (I don't fear the loss of Tony Temple, but UI's D-line will be as good or better than last year's)

Mizzou Passing

• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.88
• Projection #1: 14.78
  
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts+: 87.04
• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 21.14
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 17.96

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 18.00

Illinois Rushing

• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts+: 171.78
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 14.24
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 17.78
• Projection #2: 11.70

Projected Illinois Rushing Output: 12.97

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 11.00 (Dufrene is decent, but he's no Mendenhall...and 6 of Mizzou's front 7 return)

Illinois Passing

• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts+: 72.33
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 8.78
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.37
• Projection #2: 5.22

Projected Illinois Passing Output: 7.00

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 9.00 (Mizzou's secondary returns intact, but Benn is healthy)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Illinois 20.0

Neat, huh?  So that gives us a jumping-off point for the game.  Turnovers and special teams can certainly make up an 11-point difference, plus if the offensive line is the last thing on a team to gel, that helps Illinois, as Mizzou's O-line has further to go to gel.

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Feel it?  Feel those goosebumps?  IT'S THE FIRST GAME-WEEK OFFICIAL RELEASE OF THE YEAR.  WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

TIGER DEFENSE EXPECTED TO BE STOUT IN 2008
   The Tiger defense was young overall to begin the 2007 season, and through its 4 non-conference games to open the season, it didn’t fare all that well statistically. It allowed 435 yards and 34 points to Illinois in the season opener, and then 534 yards and 25 points at Ole Miss.
   After that point, however, Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus’ young pups really began to play well. After the rough start, the Tiger defense held their next 8 opponents under 400 yards of total offense – including sterling efforts against #25 Nebraska (297 total yards, 6 points) and #22 Texas Tech (380 yds., 10 pts.), which represented season-low yard and point totals for both. The defense closed the season with a bang, as well, as they shut down the high-powered offensive attack of Arkansas, holding the #25-ranked Razorbacks to 361 yards and just 7 points, one game after Arkansas scored 50 points to win at #1 LSU.
   Here’s a look at at where Mizzou ranked (and what it was allowing per game) in its first 4 games (all non-conference games), versus where it stood in Big 12-play (8 regular-season conference games only)…

And from fightingillini.com's release...

Illinois looks to defend its back-to-back Big Ten rushing titles as five of the top six rushers from a year ago return. The Illini will have a big hole to fill as single-season rushing leader Rashard Mendenhall (129.3 ypg) is now with the NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers, but quarterback Juice Williams (58.1 ypg) and last year's backup Daniel Dufrene (22.6 ypg) return. Williams broke the school record for rushing yards by a quarterback for the second consecutive year and Dufrene averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per carry, including a 100-yard game in the upset of No. 1 Ohio State. Added into the mix at running back will be redshirt freshman Troy Pollard and true freshmen Jason Ford and Mikel LeShoure.

Monday PC reports:

• PowerMizzou: "A couple of more freshmen could make their debuts soon. Pinkel said that receiver Wes Kemp will definitely see action this season and safety Kenji Jackson could still lose his redshirt. Jerrell Jackson and Michael Egnew will also play at wideout."
• Dave Matter: "Buried within a long discussion of the spread offense, Pinkel offered this interesting thought: He said if the coaching staff had been as experienced with the spread offense in 2005 as much as it is now, it would have tailored more of a West Virginia-type option attack around Brad Smith. Not sure I’ve ever heard that actually verbalized by an MU coach."  (DM's also got an updated depth chart.)
  

Jeremy Maclin: stronger, faster, quicker.  THAT should give you goosebumps.

It's Like Father, Unlike Son!

Unleash the hounds!!

So what to expect on Saturday night when No. 6 Missouri opens the 2008 season against No. 20 Illinois at 7:30 in St. Louis and on ESPN?

A Missouri defense that is not making like Simple Simon.

Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is ready to unleash the hounds. Adding complexity and diabolic disguise, this Missouri defense intends to not only bark, but also bite.

“With the experience that we had coming back,” Eberflus said of a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters from the Cotton Bowl victory over Arkansas, “we were able to do a little bit more during two-a-days in terms of install. Improve on our menu in terms of what we want to pull off during the course of the season.”

Translated: Missouri will blitz left when Illinois is fearful of a rush from the right. The Tigers will make it look as if a zone is open when a defender is ready to close for an interception.

That is the way the MU defense closed out last season. That is the way it plans to start this one.

“We’ve got to give our offense the ball,” said defensive end Stryker Sulak. “Our offense is great. They do things with it.”

You can catch some nice audio Pinkel/Daniel audio goodness here.  Meanwhile, Tiger Talk had itself one heckuva crowd last night.  Too bad it's at Buffalo Wild Wings--the root of all evil--this year.

Dave Matter's got his weekly Big 12 notes.

Another day, another "the skeptics are believing" column.

The Chicago Tribune has a couple Braggin' Rights-releated articles: Illinois tries to build on last year, and Daniel standing tall at QB for Mizzou (notice in the web address it has the words "Chase Daniels Misssouri Quarterback"?  Sigh...at least a copy editor caught it in the article, I guess).

Finally, it's not Michael Snaer, but Mizzou Basketball did get its second commit of the 2009 class yesterday: 6'10 faceup PF Keith Dewitt.  This is a pretty good get.  You hope that the second big-man in the class is a bit more of a banger, but Dewitt had offers from NC State, OU, OSU, Miami-FL, Marquette, and others, so there's nothing not to like here.  Get Michael "Now With a Fifth Star!" Snaer and the aforementioned banger, and you've got yourself a pretty damn nice class, Mike Anderson.  Steve Walentik's got more.

We continue our looks at other conferences by moving to the north and east...to Big Ten country.

Same rules as apply as with my SEC Preview (Part One, Part Two). I'm calling this a "Beyond the Box Score" preview, but I'm going to make it as non-number friendly as possible.  I'm going to use some BTBS concepts to set up the team previews, but the rest will be more standard analysis.  And hopefully that will make you want to learn the BTBS concepts.  Or something like that.

Here's what we're going to do: I'm going to address each team's four main "Game-Changing Stats" emerging from their WinCorr's (I didn't figure anybody would care if I didn't list out the top 20 statistical categories as I've been doing recently...correct me if I'm wrong).  Then I'll look at their national '+' rankings and list their best and worst categories.

Ohio State (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Defense.
  
• 2nd Down Defense.
• Overall Defense, Passing Downs.
  
• Q2 Offense.
  

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Non-Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive Passing Down S&P+
#1: Defensive 1st Down S&P+, Defensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#99: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#95: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#84: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#81: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

They were #1 in 13 defensive categories overall.  They were to defense what Florida was to offense.  (It's important to remember this in light of the fact that, well, nobody really respects them a whole lot after the national title game problems.  This is a good team.)  The question is, if they do get back to the title game (and let's face it--the schedule screams 11-1), can they get over the hump?  The game-changing stats suggest that it's possible.

First of all, everyone but Larry Grant and Vernon Gholston return on the defensive side, and while Gholston's loss is a blow, his replacement Lawrence Wilson is experienced and was a starter last year until a broken leg ended his season.  That, combined with a more experienced secondary, means a continued stout pass defense is likely.  The question is, can they avoid the occasional breakdown?  Like other good defenses--LSU, Auburn--OSU had a bit of trouble with Passing Down breakdowns, but it wasn't a tremendously huge issue.  Lord knows they didn't lose to LSU because of the defense.

No, the trouble was on offense.  Todd Boeckman did his best Craig Krenzel impersonation for most of the season, and while it was good enough for 11 wins, he really didn't come through when it counted most.  He averaged just 182 yards passing while getting sacked 7 times in their two losses.  He will likely be complemented this fall by the guy everybody got tired of last winter, #1 high school recruit Terrelle Pryor.  Installing a run-oriented package for Pryor a few plays a game could help with some of the key rushing/redzone stats--a backfield of Pryor and Beanie Wells shouldn't have any problem with 1st or 3rd down rushing (though it might not help Q2/Q4 passing).  And that could make a huge difference in key moments.

Summary: If their defense remains as good as ever, and the running game improves...that leaves the passing game.  They struggled passing in the "talent" quarters (Q2/Q4), and Terrelle Pryor probably won't help in that regard.  It's up to Boeckman and his key receivers--Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline, Ray Small--to actually make some plays against good secondaries, and until they do, tOSU will still be a bit limited.

Verdict: Of course, they'll still win the Big Ten, so 'limited' is a relative term.  If I'm ranking teams based on who I think would beat whom, this team falls below Georgia, USC, OU, Florida, Missouri, and possibly LSU.  But we all know they'll be right there in the title hunt at the end of the season.  Accept it, live it, love it.

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Sniff...Beyond the Box Score, I've missed you ever so.  Life seemed incomplete without you...especially considering I've spent a good portion of my last 6 months entering play-by-play information in preparation for bringing you back into my life.  It's all at my fingertips now, and Illinois is the beneficiary of that.

Actually, that's a lie.  It's all at my fingertips, but I don't know what to do with it all.  By the time we get further into the schedule here, I'll have a lot more interesting tidbits and my fingertips, but for now I'm stuck using the same sort of measures I looked at last year.  Which isn't bad by any means...just not as good as it will be.

So for now we're focusing on three major numbers for the most part: success rates, PPP (Points Per Play), and S&P (Success Rates + Points Per Play).  You remember these old friends, right?  If not, go here.

Let's get started...see where this takes us!  (And if your eyes start to glaze over from all the random numbers, just hop down to the Conclusion at the end...and don't forget to take the poll!)

ALL PLAYS (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing

Illinois: 49.6% / 0.42 / 0.916
Opponents: 41.2% / 0.30 / 0.709

Passing

Illinois: 39.5% / 0.33 / 0.722
Opponents: 40.3% / 0.29 / 0.692

Total

Illinois: 45.9% / 0.39 / 0.844
Opponents: 40.7% / 0.29 / 0.700

Illinois really wasn't that great a passing team, but you probably didn't need creative numbers to tell you that. The typical stats (167 passing yds/game, 15 TD, 15 INT) do just fine there. Rejus Benn was solid as a freshman, but he wasn't tremendously consistent from game to game. He needs to be healthy and consistent this year.

CLOSE GAMES ONLY

Rushing

Illinois: 50.5% / 0.41 / 0.913
Opponents: 39.9 / 0.25 / 0.650

Passing

Illinois: 38.9% / 0.31 / 0.703
Opponents: 40.0% / 0.25 / 0.648

Total

Illinois: 46.2% / 0.37 / 0.835
Opponents: 40.0% / 0.25 / 0.649

This really was a pretty solid defensive unit.  I'll produce the numbers to prove it at some point, but a 0.649 S&P in close games is pretty good.

Continue reading this post »

That's right...baseball's done, so as far as we're concerned, it's officially football season (one positive thing about Mizzou Baseball's non-advancement to the Super Regionals is, we were going to have to start this series this week anyway, and this way we can say we waited until baseball was over!). With just the right number of weeks remaining until the season starts, we're going to take a week-by-week look at Mizzou's 2008 opponents (sans SEMO...sorry, SEMO). That will include an initial Links post on Mondays, a Behind the Box Score look on Tuesdays (hee hee hee...so happy to have BTBS back in my life), and other smatterings of info...leading to an e-mail exchange with a writer/blogger for the opponent on Friday. Should be fun. And without further adieu, it's time to dive into the schedule. First up: an August 30 date with the Illinois Fighting Illini in St. Louis. Lindy's calls it the 4th-biggest non-conference game in the country this season.

First, we'll jump back in time to the end of the Rose Bowl, when the Daily Illini wrote a tribute to the departing 2007 seniors and broke down what would be returning for 2008. Here are two samples:

Running backs

Junior tailback Rashard Mendenhall has decided to forego his senior year season and enter the NFL Draft. Who can blame him? Mendenhall set Illinois records for all-purpose yards in a season (1,999 yards) and scoring in a season (114 points). A big key to the Illini's success will be finding the right combination to take some of the pressure off of Williams. Junior college transfer Daniel Dufrene played well despite being hampered by an ankle sprain early in the season. His long run at Ohio State stopped the early Buckeye momentum. Troy Pollard showed flashes of tremendous speed before going down with a season-ending knee injury in the Big Ten opener against Indiana. If healthy, he could provide the Illini with a major spark.

And...

Defensive line

The Illini defensive front remains strong despite the loss of Chris Norwell. David Lindquist, Doug Pilcher, Will Davis, Jerry Brown and Derek Walker all return to a line that tied the Illini record for sacks in a season with 40.

And here's the UI Athletic Department's 2008 Spring Media Guide (pdf).

Here's a mid-spring write-up of the unit that scares me most in regard to August 30: the defensive line. Mizzou OL vs Illinois DL is, to me, the matchup of the game.

Spring Game: Offense 38, Defense 31 (though apparently that doesn't tell you that the defense did well).

Finally, we'll take on ESPN's breakdown of Illini spring football developments.

Spring answers
1. Foreboding foursome: The defensive line distinguished itself as arguably Illinois' strongest unit this spring. Despite the loss of standout tackle Chris Norwell, the front four dominated a depleted offensive line and a new set of running backs. Sacks leader Will Davis anchors the line along with fellow ends Doug Pilcher and Derek Walker. "The defensive front has got a chance to be as good as I've been around in 15 years," coach Ron Zook said. "The instant you take the ball, it's hard to gain a lot of yards."

2. Man in the middle: Illinois had no trouble tabbing a successor to All-American middle linebacker J Leman. In a move that surprised nobody, Brit Miller moved from strongside linebacker to middle linebacker before spring practice. A two-year starter, Miller recorded 62 tackles last year and has the outgoing personality that makes him a natural leader. He has practiced at middle linebacker since his freshman year and can mentor promising sophomore Martez Wilson. "He knows the defense probably better than any other linebacker because he has been around," linebackers coach Dan Disch said.

3. Juice flowing: No longer needing to be guided through coverages and plays, quarterback Juice Williams took the next step in his evolution this spring. Williams continued to improve in the passing game, which Illinois will rely on more without Rashard Mendenhall. The junior has improved his decision-making skills and, despite being an introvert, welcomed a greater leadership role.

Fall questions
1. Back problems: Life after Mendenhall got off to a shaky start this spring as Illinois struggled to find answers in the run game. Injuries on the offensive line and an improved defensive line didn't help matters, but the rushing attack was a clear disappointment. Illinois finished with minus-11 net rushing yards in the spring game, and no back gained more than 6 yards in an April 12 scrimmage. "That probably has been the biggest disappointment this spring," offensive coordinator Mike Locksley told reporters. Daniel Dufrene, the team's top reserve last season, will continue to compete with freshman Mikel LeShoure for the starting job. Troy Pollard and freshman Jason Ford join the mix this fall.

2. Receiver roulette: Illinois has a legitimate star in wideout Arrelious Benn, who won Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors despite a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. The next step is to find other reliable targets. Chris James returns following ACL surgery, and hopes are high for big-play threat Jeff Cumberland. Converted cornerback Chris Duvalt will be in the mix along with heralded incoming freshman Cordale Scott.

3. Safety first: Safety will continue to be spotlighted this summer as Illinois tries to replace starters Kevin Mitchell and Justin Harrison, who combined for 155 tackles, 24 passes defended and six interceptions last season. Sophomore Travon Bellamy is in good shape for a starting spot but must hold off Nate Bussey, Garrett Edwards and Bo Flowers. Donsay Hardeman, a highly regarded junior college prospect, joins the mix in training camp.

Before we delve too deeply into this week's analysis, I'll just say that I (initially) don't think Illinois will be quite as good as they were last year. They leaned on Mendenhall on offense and Leman/Norwell on defense, and no matter how good the recruiting has been, it takes a while for new leadership to develop. The more the offense leans on Juice Williams, the better for opponents. Williams can be good in certain circumstances, but if they don't find a true threat at RB, it'll become a 'Brad Smith 2004' situation, where defenses just focus on corralling him and dare him to consistently complete passes with his relatively inaccurate arm. He's a serious playmaker, but he needs a good RB to be consistent, and that doesn't appear to be the case (so far) for 2008.

That said, they could be a matchup nightmare for Mizzou simply because what looks like their biggest strength (defensive line) matches up with what is by far Mizzou's biggest question mark heading into the fall (offensive line). OU proved that the way to beat Mizzou is to generate pressure on Daniel with your front four and allow yourself to drop 7 guys into coverage. (Now...you have to do both--you can't just drop 7 into coverage like KU did--you also have to get pressure on Chase.) If Mizzou's OL doesn't do a strong job, then the game will be dictated by Illinois, and it will be easier for Juice to play under control and not try to do too much on the offensive end to keep up.

But that's enough talk for today. We've got the rest of the week to talk about this.