So hey...at least we're not the Dallas Cowboys right now...

For the first time ever, I'm starting The Links with a soccer link.  Why?  Because it's Positivity Week for Mizzou Links posts, and Mizzou Soccer just whooped #6 Texas A&M in College Station, 3-0, that's why.  With three conference games remaining, they sit at 5-2, just one game behind 6-1 Colorado.  The Missourian has more.

So before I wrote my "Day After" post yesterday, I guess I could have just saved some time and linked to this relatively similar piece posted hours earlier by Gabe from PowerMizzou.

Missouri is still, in my estimation and most others, the class of the Big 12 North. I realize some of you will say that's like winning a beauty contest for ugly women. I don't really agree, but that's neither here nor there.

We have heard for a long time how good the leadership is on this team. Players like Chase Daniel, Tommy Saunders and Ziggy Hood have been praised for their leadership. It's time for that to show up next week.

The Tigers lost any chance at the national title on Saturday. There is not one possible way Missouri gets back in that discussion. But other than that, they didn't lose much. Mizzou has five games left. Four of them are against Big 12 North teams. If Mizzou wins those four games, it is mathematically impossible for them not to win the Big 12 North. At that point, the Tigers will have a chance to become what has been the haunting of the Big 12 Conference for a decade: The ultimate spoiler in the league title game.

Listen, Missouri is better than Colorado. They are better than Iowa State and Kansas State. They have proven they are far better than Nebraska. They were better than Kansas last year and I still happen to think they're better than the Jayhawks again this year, no matter what yesterday might have said.

(Technically, if they win those four North games but lose to Baylor, it is indeed mathematically possible to not win the North...if Kansas wins all of their other games.  Won't happen, but I'm just sayin'...mathematically possible.)

Time for one last cleanse before we move on to Colorado: Dave Matter empties the notebook.

Classy gesture by ESPN’s Chris Fowler after the game. Between live interviews with McCoy and Texas Coach Mack Brown, Fowler ran halfway across the field during a commercial break to give Daniel a hug as the Tigers filed into the locker room. He probably needed it.

I confess I missed the offsetting personal foul penalty late in the fourth quarter while I was taking the elevator down to the field level, but at least Austin Wuebbels was showing some fight — something his teammates didn’t bother with in the first half.

There has been some speculation that redshirt freshman defensive end Chris Earnhardt has quit the team. A team official told me on Sunday that Earnhardt was a late scratch from the travel list, but nothing has been made official about his status with the team.

Don't know why Earnhardt would quite now...with major "give them a boost" depth chart changes on the horizon, but as I usually say when somebody (possibly) quits...if they didn't want to be here anymore, then it's not a very big loss.  But I'll hold off on saying more until we find out if it's true.

So in case anybody's forgotten, here's one thing we've got going for us: we've got the best tight end in the country, and to me it isn't even close.

Better days ahead!  Still a shot at the Big 12 Title game!  The KC Star and Post-Dispatch both going with the RMN-approved positive spin!  Positivity week, people!

And finally...to basketball!  Mike Anderson has his players running.

I have this done already, so I may as well post the BTBS a day early.

Another week, another set of mind-blowing BTBS numbers for the Mizzou offense.  But notice this too: against Texas Tech, Nevada put up a 0.779 S&P and 26.88 EqPts.  Against Mizzou, those numbers were 0.666 S&P and 19.97 EqPts.  So while Mizzou and Tech gave up roughly the same number of actual points, Mizzou's defense performed better as a whole.  And it's performing incrementally better each week.

To the numbers we go!  And for The Beef, I'm once again bolding the key points.  You're welcome.

Notice how quickly Mizzou put this out of reach.  Less than 30% of the game was played in "close" circumstances--that's almost as low as it was against SEMO last week.  Against Mizzou, you're under such pressure to score and score early that one mistake can feel like having your serve broken by Pete Sampras--you just don't know how you're going to make up the distance you've just given up on the scoreboard.

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So...does anybody really feel a great desire to dive into the intricacies of the BTBS stats for a 52-3 win that could have been 100-3 with the starters in?  I thought not.  But there are a few things I have to point out.

Almost Perfect

After the jump, you can check out my BTBS "box score" table for the SEMO game.  In it, be sure to check out the 'close-game' stats.

• Mizzou ran 17 plays while the game was 'close' (i.e. within two possessions). 
  
• Of those 17, 15 were successful.
• Those 17 plays resulted in 17.25 EqPts.
• Anything over a 45% success rate is solid.  Mizzou's close-game success rate was 88.2%.
• Anything over a 0.50 PPP is solid.  Mizzou's close-game PPP was 1.01.
• Adding those together, anything over about a 0.950 S&P is solid.  Mizzou's close-game S&P was 1.897.
• Looking back at my 2007 stats, only one offensive performance can top Mizzou's near-perfection here: Florida put up a 92.3% close-game success rate, 1.40 close-game PPP, and 2.321 close-game S&P versus Western Kentucky last year.  F---ing Tim Tebow...always getting in Chase Daniel's way on the greatness scale...

QBs

For the game, Mizzou QBs put up the following numbers...

Chase Daniel

Passing: 88.2% / 1.07 PPP / 1.949 S&P
TOTAL: 80.6% / 0.90 PPP / 1.706 S&P

Chase Patton

Passing: 75.0% / 0.37 PPP / 1.121 S&P
TOTAL: 75.0% / 0.57 PPP / 1.321 S&P

Blaine Gabbert

Passing: 22.2% / 0.06 PPP / 0.280 S&P
TOTAL: 40.9% / 0.18 PPP / 0.589 S&P

Now...anybody who watched the game knows that Gabbert struggled more than Daniel and Patton.  But slack should be cut toward him due simply to the personnel on the field...especially on the last drive, when he was handing to Shaun Scott (who actually looked decent) and Tyrone Reece (who didn't).  In all, though, I do think it was good for Gabbert to get out the butterflies against SEMO.  Hopefully he'll get some snaps against Nevada, Buffalo, and one or two conference opponents as well.  Redshirt's off--might as well take advantage of it.

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Dave Matter, Gabe Dearmond and others have confirmed yesterday's rumor--RSFr Michael Keck has quit the football team for "personal reasons".  From most accounts, it appears that it was just a case of "this isn't as easy as it used to be".  Maybe there's more to it than that, maybe not.  I wish him well.

In all, this appears to be a "hurts our depth" problem more than a "hurts our immediate product on the field" problem.  Keck seemed competent out there, but he wasn't a big playmaker, and true freshman Jacquies Smith seemed to have already surpassed him for PT.  It hurts because you always want the big-time in-state kids to succeed here so that other big-time in-state kids see them succeeding, but I can't get myself too worked up about this one.  Defensive End is a position of decent young depth for Mizzou, so we should be okay there.  Next year we'll be choosing a starter from a pool of Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, Marcus Malbrough, Chris Earnhardt, Aldon Smith, and whatever other recruits we sign (Sheldon Richardson, etc.).  No matter what, there will probably be a dropoff from what we're accustomed to this year--Stryker Sulak and Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis have served us quite well, and Keck was not going to change that whether he was in uniform or not.  But again, I wish him well.

 Scrimmage reports!  All the usual suspects check in with their descriptions of Saturday's "sloppy" scrimmage.

• Mutigers.com - "Freshman DE Jacquies Smith recorded three sacks while fellow freshman Kenji Jackson scooped up a bobbled pitch and returned it 49 yards. Earlier, Jackson had a sure interception snagged from the air by a leaping Wes Kemp."
• The Trib - '"We’ve got a lot of work to do if we want to be ready for this first football game," Pinkel said. "Obviously, that’s my job to get it done."'
• Dave Matter's Blog - "[Brian] Coulter limped off the field after two plays of the third unit’s first series. I know fans want to read that he’s going to redefine the defensive end position at MU and make people forget Justin Smith, but let’s seriously hold off the jersey retirement ceremony. For one, Coulter hasn’t been healthy since he stepped on the field. The latest setback could reveal further damage. Secondly, Coulter has to outplay the No. 2 defensive ends before he can even think about unseating Stryker Sulak or Tommy Chavis, two of the better defensive ends in the Big 12. That’s not happening any time soon, if ever."
• PowerMizzou - Player of the Day: Gotta be Wes Kemp. Before today, I would not have mentioned him as a freshman that might play, but when Perry went out, Kemp got reps with the first team offense and really looked good. The DeSmet product could find his way on the field yet.
• KC Star - '“Chase Patton is playing as good as I’ve ever seen him play,” Daniel said. “He made one bad read out of 35 snaps today. I’m not perfect. He’s not perfect. But he’s playing at a much higher level than he used to play at.”'
• Post-Dispatch - "But errors in execution irked Pinkel. In a red-zone sequence starting at the 20-yard line, the No. 1 offense advanced to the 5 against the No. 2 defense. But a false start forced the Tigers to the 10. Too many balls rolled on the ground from fumbles and bad snaps. The first major skirmish of camp broke out in the end zone between Elvis Fisher, the newly minted starting left tackle, and defensive lineman Dominique Hamilton."

 PowerMizzou has a nice story on the emerging youth on the defensive line.  Not only are all four backups RSFr's--Michael Keck and Chris Earnhardt at DE, Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton at DT--but now they're getting a push from a couple of true freshmen--DEs Jacquies Smith and Marcus Malbrough are both getting snaps with the 2nd team now.

 The Trib's Steve Walentik checks in on some of the other true freshmen.

Gabbert’s status might be of greatest interest to fans, but a few other freshmen figure to have far bigger impacts than the backup quarterback if they make it into Missouri’s rotation.

Linebacker Will Ebner remains the only true freshman promised a chance to play this season, but the Tigers are also likely to turn to a couple of rookie pass catchers to help overcome the loss of All-American tight end Martin Rucker and survive until junior wide receiver Danario Alexander can make it back onto the field. Alexander is not expected to play until October after a second surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

Wide receivers Wes Kemp, Gahn McGaffie and Jerrell Jackson and tight ends Michael Egnew and Andrew Jones could all get chances to bolster a receiving corps that has looked thin and is getting thinner. Earlier this week, senior tight end Chase Coffman underwent surgery to repair fractured right pinky finger. Then in yesterday’s scrimmage, junior wideout Jared Perry sustained what Pinkel described as "real mild dislocation" in his right shoulder while attempting to reel in a fade pass against Tremane Vaughns.

Coffman and Perry are expected to play in the season opener against Illinois, but their injuries emphasized the Tigers’ need to identify some capable backups.

The 6-foot-4, 225-pound Kemp, who starred at DeSmet High School in St. Louis, could yet be one of them. He saw action with the No. 1 offense after Perry exited and enjoyed one of his most productive days since practice started. Largely unnoticed over the past week, he hauled in two catches for 51 yards. He made a good adjustment on a slightly underthrown deep pass from walk-on Luther Roweton and turned it into a 29-yard gain.

 Granted, the major change happened a few days ago, but the Post-Dispatch has a relatively large story up regarding the changes to the O-line.  And probably more interestingly, they also have a story on just how good a recruiting job Andrew Jones ended up doing with a couple now-classmates last year.

 Oh goodie, Bernie Miklasz is paying attention to Mizzou again.

 Quick recruiting blurbs: Texas DE Terrance Lloyd has set up his first official visit, and it's to Columbia.  Meanwhile, Texas WR Cobi Hamilton has a top two of Mizzou and Arkansas.

 In soccer news, Mizzou's second exhibition game went off without a hitch--they destroyed Illinois State, 5-0.  Sophomore Alysha Bonnick had a hat trick.

 Finally, to the surprise of...well...me, Aaron Crow did NOT sign with Washington after all.  He'll play for the Fort Worth Cats for the time being.  I hate it when draft picks don't sign--I don't understand why every league doesn't just have a setup like the NBA.  You get your rookie contract, it's not worth a helluva lot, and then you make an insane amount when the rookie contract runs out.  Mizzourah has more thoughts on that.

Meanwhile, in an 11th hour move, MU prospect Jared Cosart signs with the Phillies.  They must have thrown a ton of money at him (as he was picked in the 38th round), but he seemed to be having an amazing summer and piqued their interests.  More on the summer Cosart was having (or had) can be found here.  It seems like a new draft strategy is to draft a few Cosart-types (signed to play in college, said "If I'm drafted after the __ round, I'm going to college") late...and if you decide that you're not going to be able to sign one of your top picks, you can throw high-round money at them just in case.  The Pirates threw huge money at a couple of late-round picks thought unsignable, after their 2nd round pick demanded too much money after coming off of an arm injury.

(And by the way...bully to my Pirates for whipping out the checkbook on this draft class.  Their minor league system was horrendous a month ago, but they acquired 8 decent pieces for Bay, Nady, and Marte, and now they've signed 30+ members of a risky and relatively bold draft class.  I'm not signing up for 2013 World Series tickets just yet, but this has been the most positive month for the future of the Pirates since...uhh...1997?)

So as we read practice report after practice report, we can start to see a few emerging battles that we can pay attention to as the rest of August progresses (three weeks till kickoff!!!).  I thought I'd walk through the major battles (at least, 'major' as I see them).  If nothing else, this will give you something else to think about when you're reading the multitude of reports from Matter, Gabe, et cetera.

Some of the questions I had at the beginning of practice seem to have resolved themselves:

• Which freshman WR will emerge?  Answer: Jerrell Jackson.
• Will anyone challenge Jake Harry at punter?  Answer: No.
• Who will emerge as the main backup defensive tackle?  Answer: Terrell Resonno.
• Will Derrick Washington hold onto his #1 RB gig?  Answer: a resounding yes.
• Will LB depth be a problem?  Answer: not really
• Will anybody challenge Castine Bridges for starting CB opposite Carl Gettis?  Answer: nope.
• Will Blaine Gabbert challenge Chase Patton for the backup QB gig?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Dan Hoch look as good from Day One as some thought he would?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Justin Garrett face a challenge at SS?  Answer: nope.  He may be close to making a junior-to-senior surge like Pig Brown did last year.  Okay, maybe not to that extent, but he seems to know what he's doing now.

Right Guard: Dain Wise vs Austin Wuebbels

This one's come out of nowhere.  Early on we were hearing that none of the right guards could block Ziggy Hood, and after yesterday's practice it sounds like the RSFr Wuebbels has gained some steam.  Wuebbels only gained notice in the spring when he was arrested for marijuana possession, and I had somewhat written off his chances of seeing too much of the field this year.  But Wise, who has been "the next star O-Lineman" for three years now but has never seized one of the starting jobs, has failed to separate himself so far in August.  The O-line always seems like the last unit to find a rhythm when practices start, so a lot will still work itself out here (and Dan Hoch could still catch on and insert himself into the 2-deep), but for now assumed-starter Wise has a battle on his hands.  My prediction: Wise retains the job.  But here's to hoping he actually wins it instead of being the default winner.

Main Backup Defensive End: Brian Coulter vs Michael Keck

At the end of spring, two redshirt freshmen--Michael Keck and Chris Earnhardt--had seized the backup DE roles, and when you've got two senior starters, that's a pretty damn nice situation.  However, that was before God Himself, Brian Coulter, made his way to campus, and folks started thinking that he might even overtake perpetually-underappreciated Tommy Chavis as the starter opposite Stryker Sulak.  But then Coulter went and tweaked his ankle.  He's not yet to full-speed, so the Coulter vs Keck (and maybe Earnhardt) battle is still waiting to come to fruition.  But Coulter has three weeks to show his stuff, and we'll all continue to assume he'll do just that.  However...My prediction: I'm skeptical of JUCOs as a whole (though top JUCO DEs usually work out relatively well), so I say Keck is the #3 DE at the start of the season.  We'll see what's developed by mid-season, however.

Nickel Back: Del Howard vs Hardy Ricks (vs Gilbert Moye)

I don't know what to do with Hardy Ricks.  He started last year as starting CB but quickly proved that he's more adept at hitting than covering.  I was advocating, as were many others, that Ricks move to safety, especially after he got injured and lost his starting job, and he did a pretty decent job with the position in the spring.  Howard made a similar transition about 12 months ago, having his redshirt ripped off to play CB in his freshman campaign, then moving to safety in the offseason.  When Pig Brown got hurt, it was a battle for playing time between Howard and Justin Garrett, and though Howard seems to have better ball skills, Garrett was more trustworthy and got the majority of playing time.  Mizzou safeties seem to make a surge between their sophomore and junior seasons--just ask William Moore, Justin Simpson, or David Overstreet--and I've been expecting something similar with Del.  At this point, he seems steady but not necessarily any better than Ricks.

Moye, meanwhile, has a sickening amount of athletic ability but is finding out that the safety position has a pretty slow learning curve.  He seems to make more good AND bad plays than either Howard or Ricks, but I have to figure he's going to stay behind both of them in '08.  By 2009, on the other hand...we'll see.

This battle is important for playing time, but it's quite possible that two of these three will be Mizzou's starting safeties in 2009, so I'd prefer to see all continue to get more and more experience.  My prediction: I say Ricks overtakes Howard and gives Mizzou yet another hard hitter in the nickel package.

Now...I'm doing a lot of speculating considering Mizzou's only one week into August practices, and it's quite possible I could write this exact same post next Sunday with three completely different positions up for grabs.  But this team has (knock on wood) so many certainties to it right now...barring injury (KNOCK ON WOOD), we're pretty much set, unless Jerrell Jackson continues to surge and threatens Jared Perry's starting spot.