Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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A couple quick notes about additions before we launch into the stat orgy that is the BTBS Preview.

• I've added "Sack Rates" back into the mix now.  Not sure why I didn't earlier, but they're there now.  Sack Rate = Sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
• I've also added a "Run Rate" measure looking at Passing Downs and Non-Passing Downs.  Run Rate = Rushes / Total Plays.  Easy enough, right?  Among other things, this looks at how aggressive or conservative an offense is, and/or how much it tends to respect the defense it's opposing.  If your Run Rate is pretty high on Passing Downs, that suggests that you really don't trust that you can throw the ball downfield without a disaster.
• I changed "Total Turnover Points Margin" to "Turnover Points Margin per Game".  The numbers were getting pretty big, and it was easy to lose track of what the turnovers have meant on a game-to-game basis.

Alright...orgy time!  I should note that CUbuffs.com has a fantastic PDF of season stats as well.  I wish every school went into this much detail.

Thoughts after the jump.

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Rivals.com loves them some Mizzou Tigers.  Their mid-season All-American team contains two Tigers--Chase Coffman and Sean Weatherspoon (have to figure there are decent odds that Chase Daniel reclaims his spot on this team as well)--while their mid-season Freshman All-American team has Elvis Fisher.

Did Chase Daniel have an offer from Texas?  Did he know UT had jumped back into the recruiting game the last days before Signing Day?  Dave Matter pieces together the fact and fiction of the "Texas spurned Chase spurned Texas" story.  And they've got a pretty silly "what might have been" take as well.  I blacked out after the words "Mike Martz"

Texas links!

• Dave Matter: Behind the Numbers
• Dallas Morning News: QBs at Texas, Missouri stay in touch
• The Missourian: Tigers have mixed feelings on Texas trip
• KC Star: MU football team has a definite Texas flavor
• Post-Dispatch: MU secondary will face stern test
• Dallas Morning News: No. 1 ranking puts focus squarely on Longhorns
• Austin American-Statesman: Texas finding all the right answers

Bernie, just because you admit that you're overreacting by spewing out a "The heat is back on Pinkel" column after one damn loss, that doesn't make it okay to spew out a "The heat is back on Pinkel" column after one damn loss.  Sweet jesus.  I shouldn't have even linked to that crap.  Let's just move on...

Well, I guess there's one positive development to Mizzou's loss to OSU--it made the conference look tougher...tough enough to pass the SEC in SI's latest power rankings...of course, I'd have still taken the win...

A couple quick football recruiting notes (and reminders why following football recruiting so close gets really old after a while): Sheldon Richardson is still technically committed to Mizzou, but he's visiting Miami after the season and "announcing his choice" on Signing Day.  Meanwhile, Ronnie Wingo is setting up an official visit to Alabama for January, meaning he won't be announcing for a while either.

After yesterday's Media Day, we've got a couple of Mizzou Basketball links for you, first a "Veteran Tigers have to help out newbies" article from the KC Star, second a series of audio clips from PowerMizzou.

Finally, Mizzou Volleyball beat KU in 4 sets last night, 25-20 25-19 21-25 25-19.  Woohoo!  Border War Showdown points!  Actually, hopefully this is the turning over of a new leaf for Mizzou.  They cut down on service errors (2), outblocked KU (9.5 to 5.0) and hit 0.274 for the match.  Julianna Klein led with 19 kills, but she had twice as many attempts as anybody else.  Wendy Wang, with her 16 kills to 2 errors, was possibly the star of the match.  The Missourian has more.

I may have posted the BTBS 'box' yesterday, but there's still plenty to discuss.  Let's look back at last week's preview and see how things shook down.

Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.

Nebraska: 39.7% success rate, 40.9% while the game was close
Missouri: 56.9% success rate, 56.3% while the game was close

So NU held Mizzou a smidge below its season success rate...but still couldn't stop the big play.  Meanwhile, NU didn't have nearly enough offensive consistency.

If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.

Nebraska: 6-for-22 on passing downs.  They were 5-for-11 passing (2 successful passes to Nate Swift, 2 to Todd Peterson, 1 to Menelik Holt) with 1 sack, and they were 1-for-5 rushing. 

They were 2-for-4 in Q1 (that's when the two passes to Swift came), 4-for-18 the rest of the game.

Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team.  They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.

Nebraska Offense

Q1: 50.0% success rate / 0.42 PPP / 0.924 S&P
Q2: 30.0% success rate / 0.18 PPP / 0.484 S&P
Q3: 37.5% success rate / 0.15 PPP / 0.522 S&P

And the game was over in Q4.

They really did gameplan pretty well, with the rollouts and such, but once Mizzou got comfortable (which didn't take long), it was over fast.

Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3.  We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off.  They start fast and stay fast.

Missouri Offense

Q1: 61.5% success rate / 0.70 PPP / 1.320 S&P (skewed by Maclin's long TD)
Q2: 50.0% success rate / 0.40 PPP / 0.903 S&P
Q3: 72.7% success rate / 1.23 PPP / 1.953 S&P

So a slight dropoff in Q2, but only to 0.903.  That's still good.  I do find one thing ironic, though: remember how NU's coaches bragged about the fantastic gameplan they'd put together?  Well Mizzou was unbelievable in the "gameplan" quarters (Q1/Q3).  That's some good coaching by Nebraska, huh?

The game could be made or broken on third downs.

Mizzou on 3rd downs: 77.8% success rate / 1.487 PPP / 2.264 S&P
Nebraska on 3rd downs: 63.2% success rate / 0.391 PPP / 1.022 S&P

Nebraska was a little too successful on 3rd downs for my taste, but while they were just barely converting (0.391 PPP), Missouri was breaking the Points Per Play chart (1.487).  Again, S&P is a lot like OPS in baseball--anything over 0.900 is pretty good.  A 2.264 S&P is "Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series" good.

(Correction: Barry Bonds only put up a 1.994 OPS in the 2002 World Series.  My bad.  The Missouri offense on third downs was better than Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series.)

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I was looking back at the first posts made on RMN recently...and it reminded me that last year, along with the BTBS piece, I threw together a unit-by-unit preview of the upcoming game as well.  How's about we try that again?

Oh yeah, and leave your own predictions and/or random comments in the comments below.

QB vs QB

I can honestly say without hesitation that Mizzou would win this category against any team in the country.  This one needs no explanation.  Advantage: Mizzou.

MU RBs vs NU LBs

I'll say this: Cody Glenn has worked out better at LB than I thought he would--you'd figure there would be a one-year transition period, but he's stepped up well and is leading the Huskers in tackles from his weakside LB position.  He's even 3rd on the team in tackles for loss, plus he's broken up three passes and forced a fumble.  Problem is, his counterparts have been underwhelming.  Phillip Dillard is okay, but the strongside LB position has produced next to nothing.  Granted, they'll likely be in a nickel most of Saturday, but regardless, this LB unit is still limited.

Oh yeah, and Derrick Washington is really, really good.  Advantage: Mizzou.

MU WRs/TEs vs NU DBs

NU Secondary = work in progress.  MU receiving corps = best in America.  Advantage: Mizzou.

MU O-line vs NU D-line

This is an interesting matchup; it will probably be where the game is decided.  The starting front four for Nebraska--Zach Potter, Ndamukong Suh, Ty Steinkuhler, and Pierre Allen--has been downright solid for the Huskers.  There are two problems, however.

1) Though we've heard pretty good things about freshman DE Cameron Meredith, there is almost no depth whatsoever with this unit.  Their rotation is small, which means either a) they continue with their small rotation against Missouri and wear down by the third quarter, or b) they open up a big rotation to keep guys fresh, and a lot of guys who are either too inexperienced or not good enough to have earned playing time get a lot of snaps.  Either way, that's a bad thing for Nebraska.

2) Illinois' D-line is likely better than the Husker unit, and Illinois got little to no pressure on Chase Daniel.  Maybe you've heard this once or twice on RMN, ahem, but getting pressure on Chase Daniel with your front four is your only means of survival against the Mizzou offense.  Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown are proving to be a ridiculously good set of bookend tackles.

In other words, Advantage: Mizzou.

NU RBs vs MU LBs

Even though I've never been as high on Marlon Lucky as some, I still always saw him as a solid back, particularly on 3rd down.  He's picking a bad time to not live up to even my expectations.  Granted, there's still a lot of time left in his senior season, but he just hasn't been very dynamic at all.  Sophomore Roy Helu Jr. seems to have passed him in terms of potential and upside, and fellow sophomore Quentin Castille is getting the short-yardage carries.  It's now a three-headed RB attack for Nebraska, and last week's 15-carry, 46-yard performance from the RBs against Virginia Tech didn't exactly fill me with the fear that Nebraska will be able to control the pace and grind out the clock with the running game.  They'll have to rely on the short passing game for that.

Oh yeah, and Brock Christopher and Sean Weatherspoon are freaking fantastic.  Advantage: Mizzou.

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1 - What did last week's string of upsets tell you about the current state of college football?

2 - A month into the season, where do you think Joe Ganz ranks among Big 12 QBs?

3 - For those who have seen Nebraska play at all this year, what do you think gives Nebraska the best opportunity of stopping the Mizzou offense enough to win?

4 - Big 12 Picks!

Texas @ Colorado
Kansas @ Iowa State
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Oklahoma @ Baylor
ATM @ OSU

And finally...

Mizzou @ Nebraska

5 - Finally...on average, which game do you usually see as a bigger game in football: MU-NU or MU-KU?  (For Doug, change that to KU-KSU or MU-KU)  I think I've asked a question like this before, but...screw it.  I'm asking it again.

Continue reading this post »

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet.  That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play.  Oh well, I guess.  Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska.  And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them.  At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet.  And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Thoughts...

• Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year.  They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming.  Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
• Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs.  Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
• Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
• Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry.  I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition.  That's a stout run defense right there.
• Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
• Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
• If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
• Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin.  What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games?  You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
  
• Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team.  They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
• Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4.  Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
  
• Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3.  We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off.  They start fast and stay fast.  Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games.  They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
• Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs.  A 1.623 S&P?  Seriously?
• The game could be made or broken on third downs.  Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383.  You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

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It's Like Father, Unlike Son!

ESPN's Mark Schlabach evaluates the football conferences pretty accurately, I think.  1) I do like that he was brave enough to put the Mountain West over the ACC and Big East.  2) One qualm: Brandon Tate and Drew Willy above Chase Daniel on the Top Offensive Performers list?  Really?  I mean...Jeremy Maclin had better numbers than Tate did...

I posted a quote last night, but here's more from Pinkel's Monday press conference:

On Missouri’s offensive line:
"It’s coming together, you’re never there. I think it’s coming. Dan Hoch has done a really good job, we played him a little in the first half, our normal substitution plan. I think young players are getting more experience. They key was, can a guy like Elvis Fisher come in and play that position and still keep all the other areas solid and not have to move guys around. And that has enabled us to do that and you have to recognize him (Fisher) for playing at the level he’s playing. He’s certainly had a good test, we’ve been playing some good teams."

On Derrick Washington:
"Derrick Washington has come in and played at a very high level. When you lose a starter like Tony Temple, and you wonder why we might be executing so well, it’s because a tailback comes in and is playing at such a high level and then you have all these experienced players around him so you are able to execute better."

PowerMizzou's got audio from the PC.

Buffalo Links!

• Mutigers.com: It's the official release! ("Dating back to the season-opening win against Illinois in 2007, Mizzou has won 8 consecutive non-conference games. That is the longest such streak in school history, with last Saturday’s win over Nevada breaking a tie with the previous mark from 1981-82. The last non-conference defeat the Tigers suffered was a 39-38 loss to Oregon State in the 2006 Sun Bowl. If you take bowl games out of the equation, then the Tigers have won 12 straight regular-season non-league games, dating back to a win over Troy in 2005.")
• Dave Matter: Quick injury notes--Andrew Gachkar is doubtful with a strained Achilles, while William Moore is "probable to doubtful", whatever the hell that means.
• Buffalo News: Willy's dramatic pass grabs national attention.
• UBathletics.com: Naaman Roosevelt Named MAC East Offensive Player of the Week.

Back to William Moore: he's getting frustrated with the injury.

Moore knows he should sit out Saturday’s game. Missouri has a bye week thereafter and then opens Big 12 play at Nebraska on Oct. 4. Rest would help.

“It was a proven fact,” he said. “I hurt it in the Illinois game. I took practice pretty easy, didn’t play SEMO, and came back and practiced.

“That week of practice I was good. I was ready to go.”

Physically, yes. But something was bothering Moore as he took the field last Saturday against Nevada.

His foot felt good. But he wasn’t sure of it. He admitted he held back on some plays. He admitted he wasn’t Willy Mo, the name by which all friends and foes know him.

“Cautious,” Moore said.

In happier injury news, Danario Alexander is feeling good.

Dave Matter posts his weekly Big 12 notes.

A basketball recruiting note: Michael Snaer visited Florida State this weekend and had what appears to be an identical reaction as he did to the Mizzou trip.  Kool-Aid Perry uses the word "great" 18 times in the article.  So there you go.  Not too worried about it, really, but the great 'coachspeak' quotes are great...great, I tell you...

Finally...Shawn Michaels? Really?  I was always a Sting man myself...but I shouldn't have an opinion on this one, as I couldn't really name a single new wrestler from the last 5 years...is Rugged Ronnie Garvin still around?  Demolition?  Koko B. Ware?  JYD?

Hmm...that gives me an excuse to search the youtubes...

Ahh yes...

Today we start with recruiting news.  A couple WRs are liking Mizzou: first up is 3-star Houston WR Josh Gordon, who continues to rank Mizzou #1 on his list; next is...that's right, 4-star NC WR Jheranie Boyd. Rivals' #32 player in the country watched Mizzou on TV last Saturday, put the Tigers back in his Top 5, and scheduled a visit.  Nice.

Another day, another "Wasn't Derrick Washington great the other day?" story.  This time, Dave Matter compares Washington's starting debut to that of other Tigers...

Another day, another "Wasn't Elvis Fisher great the other day?" story.  Actually, two of them.  The Maneater and KC Star take their turns...

While the youngsters are getting all the attention, someone finally talks about just how freaking good Stryker Sulak was the other day.

SEMO Links!  Feel the excitement!  Or not!

• PowerMizzou: Three Tiger Keys to the game
• Missourian: Eddie Calvin did not pick SEMO over Mizzou
• SE Missourian: MU wears game face for Southeast

Dave Matter does a little thinking and shares some more thoughts on Michael Keck's departure.

Could Keck have developed into a Big 12 defensive end? We’ll probably never know. Gary Pinkel has historically maintained a strict policy against granting players a release from their scholarship if they intend to transfer to another Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A) program. Maybe it’s for the best. Keck might be better suited and more comfortable playing at a lower level.

If anything, maybe Keck’s case can be looked as a strike against the recruiting services that rated him such a high-level prospect. Keck will probably be most remembered for being Rivals.com’s No. 1 rated high school recruit in the state — though Rock Bridge tight end Aron White surpassed him on the site’s rankings by national signing day last year. (Sometimes I think these rankings do more harm than good. I can’t help but sympathize with kids who carry these lofty mythical rankings into college. When White didn’t become an instant starter at Georgia last year, I’m sure some Bulldog fans were disappointed. Ridiculous.)

But back to Keck. There are some people around the state whose opinion I trust who believed he was a creation of the recruiting sites. Missouri certainly wasn’t the only program that offered Keck a scholarship, but his ranking didn’t necessarily reflect a consensus opinion around the state. Of course, hindsight is crystal clear, but it was strikingly obvious last fall that Derrick Washington, Carl Gettis and Luke Lambert were better equipped to contribute immediately at MU. As a 200-pound defensive end/outside linebacker, Keck was more of a project.

The KC Star's Blair Kerkhoff compares the atmospheres in StL (for MU-UI) and KC (for MU-KU).  MizzouRah's Shawn shares his thoughts as well.

ESPN's Tim Griffin shares his weekend predictions.  The only news will come if the Big 12 doesn't sweep this crappy slate of teams.

Finally, Mizzou Volleyball is in always lovely College Park, MD, tonight, for the Spring Hill Suites at Arundel Mills Invitational.  They'll play St. John's (who receives votes in the latest polls), Maryland (unranked) and Kentucky (unranked).  After a relatively strong showing last weekend, here's to hoping they go undefeated and come home 5-1.  More here from the Maneater's astute, dapper volleyball beat writer...

Well this is encouraging...Mizzou season ticket sales have exceeded 40,000...more than 5K above the previous high from 2004...suddenly another 60,000 average doesn't seem so difficult to obtain, even with the cake home schedule...

Derrick Washington: The Man.

PowerMizzou takes a nice look at Elvis Fisher and the test he passed on Saturday.

One play in particular stood out. On a second quarter handoff to Derrick Washington, Fisher pulled from his left tackle position over to the center spot and led the way up the middle of the field for the Tiger tailback.

"On Derrick Washington's run, on the 40-yard touchdown run, he had two pancake blocks; one on Vontae Davis, which is there best player and one on Britt Miller, who is probably the second or third best player," Daniel said. "He doesn't say too much but he gets the job done. He graded out one of the highest of the offensive linemen."

The Trib takes a look at Mizzou's "leaky secondary" and how fixable the problem really is...

It's Cut to the Chase time!!!  Well, sort of...it's not an exclusive interview so much as a bunch of quotes from the weekly media gathering...

SEMO Links!

• The Missourian: SEMO football coach with I-A experience prepares team to face MU
• Post-Dispatch: Why play a patsy?
• SE Missourian: Predictions
• SE Missourian: Redhawks collect two OVC honors after opening win

I missed this the other day, but any time Stewart Mandel talks Mizzou, I should link to it...

On the recruiting front, PowerMizzou gets some quotes from Mizzou recruits in attendance at The Dome...including...

Ronnie Wingo: "It was a really great way to start the season. I couldn't believe they scored 52 points. I loved the way they ran the ball. I talked a little with Sheldon and Darris [Ford]. We had fun hanging out and watching the game together."

Finally, a quick soccer link: the Maneater blog takes a look at some pretty stout battles for playing time...