Remembering the Alamo Bowl
Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.
Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.
Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.
Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.
The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).
More rambling after the jump.
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Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score
We were out of sorts all game, Chase Daniel's never played worse, we were falling down in pass coverage, we couldn't run the ball, our "most accurate kicker of all-time" missed a game-ending FG, we were a step behind in our play-calling for much of the game...and we won our 10th game of the season. How in the hell did this happen??
Missouri
|
NW'ern
|
|
| % Close = 100.0% | ||
| 63.2% | Field Position % |
36.8% |
| 70.3% | Leverage % |
69.9% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 74 | Plays | 83 |
| 18.55 | EqPts | 22.09 |
| 41.9% | Success Rate | 41.0% |
| 0.25 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.27 |
| 0.670 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.676 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | same |
| same | EqPts | same |
| same | Success Rate | same |
| same | PPP | same |
| same | S&P | same |
| RUSHING | ||
| 4.45 | EqPts | 4.06 |
| 34.5% | Success Rate | 40.0% |
| 0.15 | PPP | 0.12 |
| 0.498 | S&P | 0.516 |
| 3.00 | Line Yards/carry |
3.03 |
| PASSING | ||
| 14.10 | EqPts | 18.03 |
| 46.7% | Success Rate | 41.7% |
| 0.31 | PPP | 0.38 |
| 0.780 | S&P | 0.792 |
| 2.2% | Sack Rate |
10.4% |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 48.1% | Success Rate | 43.1% |
| 0.25 | PPP | 0.28 |
| 0.726 | S&P | 0.708 |
| 3.1% | Sack Rate |
3.2% |
| 38.5% | Run Rate |
46.6% |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 27.3% | Success Rate | 36.0% |
| 0.26 | PPP | 0.24 |
| 0.536 | S&P | 0.600 |
| 0.0% | Sack Rate |
23.5% |
| 40.9% | Run Rate |
32.0% |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 1 |
| 5.79 | Points Lost | 1.84 |
| 7.70 | Points Given | 3.33 |
| 13.49 | Total T/O Pts | 5.17 |
| -8.32 | Turnover Pts Margin | +8.32 |
| 0.678 | Q1 S&P | 0.868 |
| 0.721 | Q2 S&P | 0.603 |
| 0.729 | Q3 S&P | 0.991 |
| 0.607 | Q4/Q5 S&P | 0.377 |
| 0.509 | 1st Down S&P | 0.678 |
| 0.670 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.587 |
| 0.971 | 3rd/4th Down S&P | 0.790 |
| 0.410 | In own red zone |
0.515 |
| 0.723 | 25 to 25 |
0.839 |
| 0.600 | In opp. red zone |
0.491 |
Thoughts after the jump...
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Mizzou Links, 12-15-08
Oh baby...8 degrees...20 mph winds...a layer of sleet/snow/frozen rain on the roads...this is gonna be fun...
So it was a big weekend for Mizzou Football Recruiting...not necessarily in the "hosting uncommitted recruits" sense, but in the "hosting mostly committed recruits and solidifying everybody's commitments" sense (it seems to have worked). The only big-name, uncommitted kid in town was Ronnie Wingo, who had a "perfect" trip. He's insisting on taking five visits, but I think there's at least a small chance that doesn't happen. His family's on-board with Mizzou, and I'm quite optimistic about our chances whenever he decides to pull the trigger.
Chase Coffman may not get his name on the wall, but he is indeed getting a mural...
Mizzou Back to Practice links!
- Dave Matter: Tigers get back to practice
"The coaches will give significant reps to younger players during the pre-bowl practices in Columbia. Nobody took advantage of the extended time more on Saturday than freshman quarterback Blaine Gabbert. This was really the first substantial practice time I’ve seen from Gabbert since preseason camp back in August, and other than his No. 11, not much looked the same. He zipped some fastballs downfield during 11-on-11 drills, something we didn’t see much from Gabbert during two-a-days. On one, he fired a 30-yard rope to Wes Kemp between defenders that would have gone for a touchdown."
- PowerMizzou: Gabbert takes over
- Post-Dispatch: Maclin says jump to NFL isn't a done deal yet (of course...what else is he going to say?)
Carl Gettis: future leader.
Another day, another "What a disappointing season" article from Vahe Gregorian at the Post-Dispatch, this one on Chase Daniel and the Heisman...and yes, he's not the only one writing them...but I always notice when it's him...
To basketball. Here is a handful of Murray State wrap-up links for you...
- The Trib: A little more than they bargained for
- The Trib: [Isaac] Miles lives the dream
- The Missourian: Missouri frontcourt held in check
- The Missourian: Tigers find a way to win
- KC Star: Mizzou wins sixth straight
- Post-Dispatch: Lyons leads Missouri past pesky Murray State
Finally, for those who don't keep up with stat-nerd Ken Pomeroy and his basketball rankings, you may want to check them out. He's sooo over the RPI, he's come up with something better, and Mizzou's #9. Fun. It's too early to take that too seriously, but it does show that while Mizzou has beaten up on mostly cupcakes (USC's #33, Cal #46, and Mizzou's SOS is #6 in the Big 12), they've done it in a pretty statistically sound way, which is encouraging. Now we just need DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons to hold onto the ball, and we're really in business...
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Mizzou Links, 12-5-08
Certainly the most interesting article from the last 24 hours is this Trib link about the Mizzou secondary's communication issues during the KU game.
Sophomore cornerback Carl Gettis recalled a number of instances against KU where one or two players missed the defensive play call from the sideline and teammates. Other times, said cornerback Castine Bridges, the wrong play was signaled.
"For some reason, we slacked off," said Bridges, who suffered a season-ending torn medial colateral ligament in the game. "Some guys were playing the wrong calls. Some guys were calling Cover 2 instead of Cover 3."
Jackson wondered if some players were too caught up in the rivalry’s intensity to persistently concentrate on the game’s mental side.
"For a couple of plays, we would be communicating, and then after that, I’d look at" safety Justin "Garrett and he wasn’t even looking at me," Jackson said. "So everyone was really just trying to make sure they were doing their job. It’s against Kansas. A lot of emotions are flying. We were just really wanting to win, and it was hard to focus in on the call each different play."
How did that work out?
"It seemed like every time we didn’t get a call, that’s when a big play came," he said. "We’re going to have to do a better job."
The good news, of course, is that the two people in the article who seemed to be the most together were a sophomore (Gettis) and a freshman (Jackson), but...yeah, might want to get that hammered out. I hear OU's, uhh, not too bad at passing the ball.
OU Links!
- KC Star: Oklahoma provides a head game for Missouri
- KC Star: Maclin's return game in spotlight
- Post-Dispatch: Maclin ready to expose Oklahoma's weakness on kick return defense
- Dave Matter: Writer's Block (a Q&A with Jake Trotter of the Daily Oklahoman)
- PowerMizzou: Three Keys to a Tiger victory (First key on the list: score a lot. You know, that's just crazy enough to work...)
- Tulsa World: Sooners' success speaks for itself
- The Missourian: MU football hopes to overcome history, #4 Oklahoma
- The Missourian: Tigers push optimistic message for Oklahoma game
- Daily Oklahoman: Bradford to have 8am surgery following title game
- Daily Oklahoman: Bob Stoops' Big 12 championship history
- Daily Oklahoman: Will Tigers have any advantage?
Also regarding the OU game...the Missourian mentions one reason for Mizzou hope: 2003 KANSAS STATE!!!!!!! Just know where you heard that first.
Nothing earth-shattering in this article, but the P-D has a nice summary of the Big 12 Championship's history of upsets...
Also nothing earth-shattering here, but...man, I'm going to miss the "Isn't Chase Coffman amazing?" articles. We've only got a month left with him...
Finally, there aren't a lot of new names or anything, but check out Mizzou's status with a lot of recruits in this week's Chamber...
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Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?
KU
|
Opp. |
Mizzou |
Opp. |
|
| 68.8% | % Close | 52.5% | ||
| 49.7% | 50.3% | Field Position % | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 71.3% | 65.9% | Leverage % | 76.8% | 68.5% |
| Total | ||||
| 795 | 780 | Plays | 762 | 826 |
| 313.43 | 292.05 | EqPts | 392.41 | 265.57 |
| 47.6% | 41.8% | Success Rate | 56.8% | 42.1% |
| 0.39 | 0.37 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| 0.870 | 0.792 | S&P | 1.083 | 0.743 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 528 | 555 | Plays | 453. | 381 |
| 218.59 | 212.79 | EqPts | 228.79 | 119.84 |
| 47.9% | 43.1% | Success Rate | 57.6% | 42.8% |
| 0.41 | 0.38 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| 0.893 | 0.814 | S&P | 1.081 | 0.742 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 115.92 | 105.62 | EqPts | 145.56 | 91.46 |
| 49.4% | 39.4% | Success Rate | 52.0% | 40.6% |
| 0.33 | 0.33 | PPP | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| 0.820 | 0.728 | S&P | 0.977 | 0.659 |
| 3.35 | 2.71 | Line Yds/carry | 3.13 | 2.73 |
| Passing | ||||
| 197.51 | 186.44 | EqPts | 246.84 | 174.12 |
| 46.0% | 43.4% | Success Rate | 60.3% | 43.3% |
| 0.45 | 0.40 | PPP | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| 0.910 | 0.837 | S&P | 1.160 | 0.809 |
| 5.9% | 4.3% | Sack Rate | 2.2% | 5.4% |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 51.7% | 46.5% | Success Rate | 61.5% | 47.1% |
| 0.38 | 0.37 | PPP | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| 0.895 | 0.831 | S&P | 1.162 | 0.794 |
| 5.3% | 3.9% | Sack Rate | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 53.8% | 50.4% | Run Rate | 47.9% | 52.8% |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 37.4% | 33.0% | Success Rate | 41.7% | 31.6% |
| 0.43 | 0.39 | PPP | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| 0.807 | 0.720 | S&P | 0.830 | 0.636 |
| 6.8% | 4.8% | Sack Rate | 3.6% | 7.1% |
| 23.4% | 23.5% | Run Rate | 23.5% | 26.7% |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 19 | 21 | Total | 17 | 19 |
| 43.19 | 61.28 | Points Lost | 48.11 | 45.63 |
| 46.04 | 50.30 | Points Given | 34.23 | 71.73 |
| 89.23 | 111.58 | Total T/O Pts | 82.34 | 117.36 |
| +22.35 | -22.35 | T/O Pts Margin/Gm | +35.02 | -35.02 |
Thoughts after the jump...
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The Fog of '09 - North Defenses
Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.
Defensive Lines
- Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
- Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
- Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
- Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
- Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
- Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)
That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.
Linebackers
- Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
- Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
- Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
- Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
- Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
- Kansas (?)
I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.
Defensive Backs
- Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
- Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
- Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
- Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
- Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
- Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)
Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.
Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.
North Defenses, 2009
- Nebraska (15)
- Missouri (12)
- Kansas State (11)
- Iowa State (10)
- Kansas (9)
- Colorado (6)
As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.
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Monday Musings - The Big XII North Champion Edition
Hmmm...I just do not see that getting old any time soon...Big XII North Champions. Not saying it is my destination, but saying it is nice to see this team accomplish it in back to back seasons when other seasons have had the same expectation.
At any rate, this was a REALLY busy weekend for Mizzou sports, as the winter sports are geared up and the fall sports are winding down. Lots of stuff to cover and some random thoughts on football and NASCAR.
Football:
Thanks to DirecTV (all the more ironic since I work for a competitor),I was only able to see that last three quarters of action. At any rate, I have not read or heard enough to know if the team knew the fate of the UT/kU game when they took the field. In all honesty, I kind of hope they did know and were able to go out there and take care of business like they did. Chase looked comfortable again, save for the two interceptions (one which did not count, and the one that did. Speaking of the one that did not count, I think it is funny that a roughing the passer can negate an INT. To me, the ball is gone, it should be change of possession and 15 yards off...but that is just me). What I hope happened this past week was that while we continued to pay lip service to the fact that Chase Coffman COULD play, we went ahead and game planned that he would not. I am not entirely sure we did that for the kSU game, and I think it showed in the offense's efficiency. This time around, Jones looked more than ready to step in and things clicked better. As it pertains to Coffman, all the more reason he is the most important cog (except for Daniel) out there and why he needs to be 100 percent for the Championship game. I will be honest, I think we can beat kU without him, but we do not likely stand a chance against any of the four from the south without him.
On defense...gosh..I wish we could just wrap up and tackle. WAY too many shoulder tackles which do not work at this level. Saw one from Willy Mo, another from Lambert and others where I do not remember the people specifically. Nice game by Chavis (even if the announcer could not say his name correctly) and nice to see Gettis further earn his rep as a lock-down corner with an interception. And I am still looking for the superior effort on D. Wash's long TD run, but the more I see it, the more it just seems to be a product of the system and Washington's really wonderful vision. He just glided around and took the correct angles which resulted in ISU guys getting naturally sealed off of him and went from there.
As for "hate" week and what-not, you will find I will probably not participate too much in it. To me, these next two weeks are just a long two weeks without Mizzou playing, with a stop-over for the OU/TTech game next Saturday. As for some perspective on the season and this accomplishment...maybe next week...we'll see. I think I am of the opinion that if I do not talk about the closing of this season, it just wont end :-)
Soccer:
Not too much left to cover on this one, as it was pretty well hashed out on the pages of Rock M over this past weekend. The ladies went right out and stomped on the throat of Evansville on a terrible Friday night with goals in the 3rd minute and the 33rd minute. A win of 2-0, along with a 2OT thriller between Memphis and Illinois (which Illinois won) figured to have the Tigers in a good spot. But, after a scoreless 1st half, Illinois got on the board early in the 2nd. The Tigers fought back on a goal from freshman Mallory Stipetech and evened it at one. They went all the way to penalty kicks (some would argue a terrible way to finish a game) and were even at 4 goals each on the 5th kick when back-up goalie and occasional field player Mallory Forst stepped up to take the kick.. She was unsuccessful, and the Tigers finished their season with another 2nd round of the NCAA tourney loss, again in 2OT (or more).
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Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.
Mizzou
|
Opp. |
ISU |
Opp. |
|
| 55.3% |
% Close | 73.9% |
||
| 56.3% |
43.7% |
Field Position % | 53.0% |
47.0% |
| 79.7% |
67.8% |
Leverage % | 64.3% |
71.3% |
| Total | ||||
| 669 |
749 |
Plays | 698 |
668 |
| 355.37 |
239.77 |
EqPts | 227.72 |
306.33 |
| 56.3% |
41.8% |
Success Rate | 41.3% |
49.0% |
| 0.53 |
0.32 |
PPP | 0.33 |
0.46 |
| 1.094 |
0.738 |
S&P | 0.739 |
0.948 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 417 |
367 |
Plays | 495 |
514 |
| 212.27 |
116.90 |
EqPts | 164.87 |
231.79 |
| 58.0% |
43.1% |
Success Rate | 40.6% |
47.9% |
| 0.51 |
0.32 |
PPP | 0.33 |
0.45 |
| 1.089 |
0.749 |
S&P | 0.739 |
0.930 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 74.85 |
86.99 |
EqPts | 74.76 |
126.61 |
| 53.3% |
40.7% |
Success Rate | 39.4% |
47.4% |
| 0.45 |
0.26 |
PPP | 0.31 |
0.36 |
| 0.987 |
0.664 |
S&P | 0.706 |
0.834 |
| 3.15 |
2.71 |
Line Yds/carry | 2.73 |
3.24 |
| Passing | ||||
| 225.38 |
152.78 |
EqPts | 123.74 |
179.72 |
| 60.2% |
42.7% |
Success Rate | 41.9% |
50.6% |
| 0.56 |
0.37 |
PPP | 0.36 |
0.57 |
| 1.163 |
0.799 |
S&P | 0.778 |
1.075 |
| 2.2% |
6.1% |
Sack Rate | 4.3% |
4.7% |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 61.4% |
47.2% |
Success Rate | 48.3% |
53.2% |
| 0.54 |
0.33 |
PPP | 0.33 |
0.45 |
| 1.152 |
0.803 |
S&P | 0.812 |
0.986 |
| 1.4% |
4.7% |
Sack Rate | 4.0% |
3.2% |
| 48.0% |
53.9% |
Run Rate | 57.0% |
60.5% |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 40.0% |
30.3% |
Success Rate | 26.8% |
38.5% |
| 0.41 |
0.30 |
PPP | 0.36 |
0.47 |
| 0.814 |
0.602 |
S&P | 0.632 |
0.855 |
| 4.0% |
8.0% |
Sack Rate | 4.6% |
7.0% |
| 24.2% |
27.0% |
Run Rate | 31.4% |
33.3% |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 15 |
17 |
Total | 17 |
24 |
| 41.72 |
39.57 |
Points Lost | 42.73 |
61.30 |
| 32.41 |
63.42 |
Points Given | 39.47 |
63.66 |
| 74.13 |
102.99 |
Total T/O Pts | 82.20 |
124.96 |
| +28.86 |
-28.86 |
T/O Pts Margin/Gm | +42.76 |
-42.76 |
Thoughts after the jump...
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Mizzou-KSU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score
Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...
K-State
|
Mizzou
|
|
| % Close = 41.8% | ||
| 34.6% | Field Position % |
65.4% |
| 59.5% | Leverage % |
67.1% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 74 | Plays | 79 |
| 21.60 | EqPts | 35.52 |
| 32.4% | Success Rate | 41.8% |
| 0.29 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.45 |
| .616 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.867 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 32 | Plays | 32 |
| 2.53 | EqPts | 13.78 |
| 25.0% | Success Rate | 43.8% |
| 0.08 | PPP | 0.43 |
| 0.329 | S&P | 0.868 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 12.86 | EqPts | 17.05 |
| 38.7% | Success Rate | 42.1% |
| 0.41 | PPP | 0.45 |
| 0.802 | S&P | 0.870 |
| 2.84 | Line Yards/carry |
2.97 |
| PASSING | ||
| 8.74 | EqPts | 18.47 |
| 27.9% | Success Rate | 41.5% |
| 0.20 | PPP | 0.45 |
| 0.483 | S&P | 0.865 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 40.9% | Success Rate | 45.3% |
| 0.42 | PPP | 0.56 |
| 0.830 | S&P | 1.014 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 20.0% | Success Rate | 34.6% |
| 0.10 | PPP | 0.22 |
| 0.304 | S&P | 0.568 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 2 | Number | 2 |
| 2.71 | Points Lost | 6.15 |
| 6.87 | Points Given | 2.41 |
| 9.58 | Total T/O Pts | 8.56 |
| -1.02 | Turnover Pts Margin | +1.02 |
| 0.315 | Q1 S&P | 0.824 |
| 0.320 | Q2 S&P | 1.145 |
| 0.931 | Q3 S&P | 0.453 |
| 1.163 | Q4 S&P | 1.039 |
| 0.771 | 1st Down S&P | 1.008 |
| 0.545 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.810 |
| 0.451 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.535 |
- The Mizzou offense sputtered all night, as Chase Daniel seemed to have misplaced what arm strength he has in the locker-room before the game. The defense, however, never gave K-State even a millisecond to breathe. These are about the best close-game defensive stats that you'll ever see from a Mizzou defense. Mizzou's 0.868 close-game S&P was a big disappointment considering the opponent, but K-State's 0.329 close-game S&P was amazingly low.
- Mizzou's biggest defensive problems in '08: occasional Passing Down lapses, Passing PPP. K-State's Passing Downs S&P: 0.304. K-State's Passing PPP: 0.20. The fact that KSU only managed an overall 0.29 PPP despite a 93-yard run against the Mizzou scrubs tells you all you need to know, really. We're all quick to unleash fury when Mizzou's defense doesn't live up to standards (as against Baylor), but we should be just as quick to throw praise in their direction when they're this dominant. K-State's problem hasn't been offense this year (they don't have a great offense, but it's certainly been solid, especially in the passing game), but Mizzou completely and totally shut them down.
- Mizzou was as big an overachiever as you could find in the first half of the season when it came to success on Passing Downs. But Chase Daniel has lost his mojo in this regard, and he knows it. We can win the North even if he doesn't rediscover the magic, but we sure as hell won't have a chance in the Big 12 title game without it.
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Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
Well...between Senior Day and Ron Prince, there has been very little talk (or motivation to talk) about the actual game taking place this weekend. And while I'm not finding a ton of motivation either, the numbers will do the talking!
KSU
|
Opp. |
Mizzou |
Opp. |
|
| 53.7% | % Close | 55.7% | ||
| 47.6% | 52.4% | Field Position % | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 66.1% | 68.3% | Leverage % | 77.2% | 68.6% |
| Total | ||||
| 632 | 682 | Plays | 624 | 684 |
| 255.78 | 269.74 | EqPts | 323.25 | 217.16 |
| 42.9% | 44.6% | Success Rate | 57.9% | 42.3% |
| 0.40 | 0.40 | PPP | 0.52 | 0.32 |
| 0.831 | 0.841 | S&P | 1.097 | 0.740 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 319 | 387 | Plays | 389 | 340 |
| 132.16 | 157.36 | EqPts | 198.12 | 114.10 |
| 45.8% | 46.0% | Success Rate | 58.6% | 44.1% |
| 0.41 | 0.41 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| 0.872 | 0.867 | S&P | 1.095 | 0.777 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 96.97 | 135.21 | EqPts | 112.57 | 73.13 |
| 43.4% | 44.8% | Success Rate | 51.7% | 39.9% |
| 0.33 | 0.38 | PPP | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| 0.761 | 0.825 | S&P | 0.949 | 0.630 |
| 2.72 | 3.14 | Line Yds/carry | 3.12 | 2.39 |
| Passing | ||||
| 158.81 | 134.53 | EqPts | 200.69 | 144.03 |
| 42.4% | 44.3% | Success Rate | 62.3% | 44.3% |
| 0.47 | 0.42 | PPP | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| 0.898 | 0.859 | S&P | 1.175 | 0.845 |
| 2.7% | 4.6% | Sack Rate | 2.2% | 6.5% |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 51.0% | 49.6% | Success Rate | 62.9% | 47.3% |
| 0.44 | 0.42 | PPP | 0.53 | 0.32 |
| 0.950 | 0.920 | S&P | 1.162 | 0.790 |
| 2.2% | 4.8% | Sack Rate | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| 56.5% | 59.7% | Run Rate | 47.3% | 54.4% |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 27.1% | 33.8% | Success Rate | 40.8% | 31.2% |
| 0.33 | 0.33 | PPP | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| 0.605 | 0.671 | S&P | 0.874 | 0.631 |
| 3.3% | 4.4% | Sack Rate | 3.7% | 8.4% |
| 28.5% | 37.5% | Run Rate | 23.2% | 28.4% |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 20 | 10 | Total | 13 | 15 |
| 48.82 | 23.23 | Points Lost | 35.58 | 36.87 |
| 55.77 | 24.80 | Points Given | 30.00 | 56.55 |
| 104.59 | 48.03 | Total T/O Pts | 65.58 | 93.42 |
| -56.56 | +56.56 | T/O Pts Margin/Gm | +37.84 | -37.84 |
Thoughts after the jump.
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