It's going to be inevitable to talk about Missouri in 2009 without talking about losses--Daniel, Coffman, Maclin (probably), etc.  However, there is a potentially strong identity for Missouri to carve out of what is returning...namely, threats in the running game.

Returnees

Derrick Washington (5'11, 215, junior)

Derrick Washington was, to say the least, feast-or-famine in 2008.

• First five games: 67 carries, 500 rushing yards, 10 TDs (plus 9 catches, 92 yards, another 2 TDs) (7.8 yards per touch)
  
• Next two: 15 carries, 28 rushing yards, 2 TDs (plus 8 catches, 70 yards) (4.3 yards per touch)
  
• Next four games: 59 carries, 381 rushing yards, 4 TDs (plus 7 catches, 66 yards) (6.77 yards per touch)
  
• Final three games: 36 carries, 127 yards, 1 TD (plus 5 catches, 49 yards) (4.3 yards per touch)

Thanks to his outstanding receiving ability, his per-touch averages were never really too terrible, but three things were clear regarding Washington: 1) his success took the Missouri offense to a stratospheric level, 2) he struggled mightily against the better rush defenses on the schedule (OU, Texas, Northwestern, OSU), and 3) he didn't look nearly as explosive at the end of the season.  Now, (1) needs no explanation--matching the Daniel-Maclin-Coffman trifecta with an unstoppable running game is just about unfair.  Really, (2) doesn't need an explanation either--better defenses stop good players better.  That's, like, science or something.  However, (3) needed a bit of an explanation...and it possibly just got one:

Why the drop-off in the second half of the season? Was Washington injured? Gary Pinkel never mentioned his tailback in his weekly injury reports, but, for what it’s worth, a relative of Washington’s recently posted on a MU message board that the tailback injured his knee in MU’s second game, which eventually required his knee to be drained to relieve swelling.

Now, this obviously wasn't a tremendously significant injury, as Washington's most productive stretch--Nevada, Buffalo and Nebraska--came after the second game.  Plus, he went for 151 total yards and 2 TDs in frigid temps up in Ames late in the season.  Regardless, it's as good an explanation as anything else to explain why Washington was struggling.  When #24 is on, he exploits even tiny holes and runs through arm tackles.  Against OU and Northwestern in particular, even when there were holes to be exploited, he was only getting 4-6 yards instead of 8-12.

Mizzou's chances for a surprise North title in 2009 rely on Washington being both healthy and productive, and while I'm 90% optimistic he will be both, his late-season struggles prevent me from being 100% optimistic.

De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, sophomore)

Obviously after one season of mostly junk-time work, it's hard to get a read on De'Vion Moore's potential, but it's tempting to go in one of two extreme directions:

1. Barring one big carry against Colorado, here were his stats during conference play (junk time or no): 19 carries, 69 yards (3.6 per carry), 0 TDs.  Not amazing stuff.  It seems clear early on that he has the ceiling of Marcus Woods and the floor of Earl Goldsmith.  He's shifty but not all that productive.
   
2. Did you see that one big carry against Colorado (4:03 of this video)?  Holy crap!  He got a whole and just exploded away from every defender!  Kid's got some serious jets and could make a nice inside-outside combo with D-Wash in '09.

As always, reality probably lies halfway between the two extremes, but with three years of eligibility remaining, there's still plenty of potential in De'Vion to be exploited.  And he certainly makes for an interesting change of pace with Washington running mostly between the tackles.

Redshirts

Drew Temple (5'10, 190ish, RSFr)

We obviously don't know a ton about Drew Temple at this point, but his Rivals video tells us that he runs a lot like his older brother Tony--stringing runs outside until a hole develops, then trying to explode through it--only, it appears, he maybe seeks out contact a bit more.  How that translates to success at Mizzou, who the heck knows, but for as disappointing as Tony Temple was at times, I think we would all be pretty happy to have a TT proxy in the backfield for another few years, huh?

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Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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I have this done already, so I may as well post the BTBS a day early.

Another week, another set of mind-blowing BTBS numbers for the Mizzou offense.  But notice this too: against Texas Tech, Nevada put up a 0.779 S&P and 26.88 EqPts.  Against Mizzou, those numbers were 0.666 S&P and 19.97 EqPts.  So while Mizzou and Tech gave up roughly the same number of actual points, Mizzou's defense performed better as a whole.  And it's performing incrementally better each week.

To the numbers we go!  And for The Beef, I'm once again bolding the key points.  You're welcome.

Notice how quickly Mizzou put this out of reach.  Less than 30% of the game was played in "close" circumstances--that's almost as low as it was against SEMO last week.  Against Mizzou, you're under such pressure to score and score early that one mistake can feel like having your serve broken by Pete Sampras--you just don't know how you're going to make up the distance you've just given up on the scoreboard.

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So...does anybody really feel a great desire to dive into the intricacies of the BTBS stats for a 52-3 win that could have been 100-3 with the starters in?  I thought not.  But there are a few things I have to point out.

Almost Perfect

After the jump, you can check out my BTBS "box score" table for the SEMO game.  In it, be sure to check out the 'close-game' stats.

• Mizzou ran 17 plays while the game was 'close' (i.e. within two possessions). 
  
• Of those 17, 15 were successful.
• Those 17 plays resulted in 17.25 EqPts.
• Anything over a 45% success rate is solid.  Mizzou's close-game success rate was 88.2%.
• Anything over a 0.50 PPP is solid.  Mizzou's close-game PPP was 1.01.
• Adding those together, anything over about a 0.950 S&P is solid.  Mizzou's close-game S&P was 1.897.
• Looking back at my 2007 stats, only one offensive performance can top Mizzou's near-perfection here: Florida put up a 92.3% close-game success rate, 1.40 close-game PPP, and 2.321 close-game S&P versus Western Kentucky last year.  F---ing Tim Tebow...always getting in Chase Daniel's way on the greatness scale...

QBs

For the game, Mizzou QBs put up the following numbers...

Chase Daniel

Passing: 88.2% / 1.07 PPP / 1.949 S&P
TOTAL: 80.6% / 0.90 PPP / 1.706 S&P

Chase Patton

Passing: 75.0% / 0.37 PPP / 1.121 S&P
TOTAL: 75.0% / 0.57 PPP / 1.321 S&P

Blaine Gabbert

Passing: 22.2% / 0.06 PPP / 0.280 S&P
TOTAL: 40.9% / 0.18 PPP / 0.589 S&P

Now...anybody who watched the game knows that Gabbert struggled more than Daniel and Patton.  But slack should be cut toward him due simply to the personnel on the field...especially on the last drive, when he was handing to Shaun Scott (who actually looked decent) and Tyrone Reece (who didn't).  In all, though, I do think it was good for Gabbert to get out the butterflies against SEMO.  Hopefully he'll get some snaps against Nevada, Buffalo, and one or two conference opponents as well.  Redshirt's off--might as well take advantage of it.

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We're back with Week Two of the Postgame Podcast.  This time with twice the content!  Listen to rptgwb, The Beef, Uribe Auction, and me talk about Mizzou's take-the-foot-off-the-gas-25-minutes-in 52-3 win over SEMO!

via images.pictopia.com.edgesuite.net (Joel Kowsky, MUTigers.com)

Overflow thread for immediate reaction. Analysis to come in the form of the postgame podcast some time in the next 24 hours.

**SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE, by rptgwb: Good, Bad, and Indifferent now added after the jump. And I promise it doesn't just say "Good: Mizzou, Bad: SEMO."

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1 - We'll start with...A MAILBAG QUESTION!!!

We got the following e-mail yesterday: "Hi, I was wondering what you expect out of Derrick Washington and the Mizzou backfield, both this year and in the future?  Thank you for any insight."

(For the record, we'll gladly answer any e-mails in the roundtable or at any other time, so e-mail us about whatever.*)

2 - Okay, fine...Baylor.  Discuss.

3 - Baylor vs Mizzou.  Score, please.

4 - Baylor's schedule:

8/28: Wake Forest
9/6: Northwestern State
9/13: Washington State
9/19: at UConn
10/4: Oklahoma
10/11: Iowa State
10/18: at Oklahoma State
10/25: at Nebraska
11/1: Missouri
11/8: at Texas
11/15: Texas A&M
11/29: at Texas Tech

Give me a record, and tell me which team they're most likely to upset (Iowa State and NW'ern State do not count...and Wazzu probably shouldn't either).

5 - Tell me something good that's come out of Waco.  And no, "I-35 South" doesn't count.

* = 'Whatever' doesn't really mean WHATEVER...preferrably it stays Mizzou-related**...

** = Okay, whatever means whatever...music...relationship advice...restaurant recommendations...

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