A couple quick notes about additions before we launch into the stat orgy that is the BTBS Preview.

• I've added "Sack Rates" back into the mix now.  Not sure why I didn't earlier, but they're there now.  Sack Rate = Sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
• I've also added a "Run Rate" measure looking at Passing Downs and Non-Passing Downs.  Run Rate = Rushes / Total Plays.  Easy enough, right?  Among other things, this looks at how aggressive or conservative an offense is, and/or how much it tends to respect the defense it's opposing.  If your Run Rate is pretty high on Passing Downs, that suggests that you really don't trust that you can throw the ball downfield without a disaster.
• I changed "Total Turnover Points Margin" to "Turnover Points Margin per Game".  The numbers were getting pretty big, and it was easy to lose track of what the turnovers have meant on a game-to-game basis.

Alright...orgy time!  I should note that CUbuffs.com has a fantastic PDF of season stats as well.  I wish every school went into this much detail.

Thoughts after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

So hey...at least we're not the Dallas Cowboys right now...

For the first time ever, I'm starting The Links with a soccer link.  Why?  Because it's Positivity Week for Mizzou Links posts, and Mizzou Soccer just whooped #6 Texas A&M in College Station, 3-0, that's why.  With three conference games remaining, they sit at 5-2, just one game behind 6-1 Colorado.  The Missourian has more.

So before I wrote my "Day After" post yesterday, I guess I could have just saved some time and linked to this relatively similar piece posted hours earlier by Gabe from PowerMizzou.

Missouri is still, in my estimation and most others, the class of the Big 12 North. I realize some of you will say that's like winning a beauty contest for ugly women. I don't really agree, but that's neither here nor there.

We have heard for a long time how good the leadership is on this team. Players like Chase Daniel, Tommy Saunders and Ziggy Hood have been praised for their leadership. It's time for that to show up next week.

The Tigers lost any chance at the national title on Saturday. There is not one possible way Missouri gets back in that discussion. But other than that, they didn't lose much. Mizzou has five games left. Four of them are against Big 12 North teams. If Mizzou wins those four games, it is mathematically impossible for them not to win the Big 12 North. At that point, the Tigers will have a chance to become what has been the haunting of the Big 12 Conference for a decade: The ultimate spoiler in the league title game.

Listen, Missouri is better than Colorado. They are better than Iowa State and Kansas State. They have proven they are far better than Nebraska. They were better than Kansas last year and I still happen to think they're better than the Jayhawks again this year, no matter what yesterday might have said.

(Technically, if they win those four North games but lose to Baylor, it is indeed mathematically possible to not win the North...if Kansas wins all of their other games.  Won't happen, but I'm just sayin'...mathematically possible.)

Time for one last cleanse before we move on to Colorado: Dave Matter empties the notebook.

Classy gesture by ESPN’s Chris Fowler after the game. Between live interviews with McCoy and Texas Coach Mack Brown, Fowler ran halfway across the field during a commercial break to give Daniel a hug as the Tigers filed into the locker room. He probably needed it.

I confess I missed the offsetting personal foul penalty late in the fourth quarter while I was taking the elevator down to the field level, but at least Austin Wuebbels was showing some fight — something his teammates didn’t bother with in the first half.

There has been some speculation that redshirt freshman defensive end Chris Earnhardt has quit the team. A team official told me on Sunday that Earnhardt was a late scratch from the travel list, but nothing has been made official about his status with the team.

Don't know why Earnhardt would quite now...with major "give them a boost" depth chart changes on the horizon, but as I usually say when somebody (possibly) quits...if they didn't want to be here anymore, then it's not a very big loss.  But I'll hold off on saying more until we find out if it's true.

So in case anybody's forgotten, here's one thing we've got going for us: we've got the best tight end in the country, and to me it isn't even close.

Better days ahead!  Still a shot at the Big 12 Title game!  The KC Star and Post-Dispatch both going with the RMN-approved positive spin!  Positivity week, people!

And finally...to basketball!  Mike Anderson has his players running.

I doubt this one becomes as long as the typical BTBS usually is, simply because I wrote a BTBS on Illinois about three months ago, and it's not like any games have happened since then.  But I still have some things to talk about.

'+' Projections

For one thing, using '+' ratings, we can actually somewhat project some points.  How, you ask?  Simple.  The EqPts+ number simply compares a team's performance with the averages of their opponents.  So watch what we can do...

Mizzou Rushing

• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.06
• Projection #1: 16.20
• Illinois Rushing Defense EqPts+: 165.11
• Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 9.82

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.01

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 12.00 (I don't fear the loss of Tony Temple, but UI's D-line will be as good or better than last year's)

Mizzou Passing

• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 9.88
• Projection #1: 14.78
  
• Illinois Passing Defense EqPts+: 87.04
• Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 21.14
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 17.96

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 18.00

Illinois Rushing

• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts+: 171.78
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 14.24
• Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Illinois Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 17.78
• Projection #2: 11.70

Projected Illinois Rushing Output: 12.97

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 11.00 (Dufrene is decent, but he's no Mendenhall...and 6 of Mizzou's front 7 return)

Illinois Passing

• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts+: 72.33
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 8.78
• Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Illinois Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.37
• Projection #2: 5.22

Projected Illinois Passing Output: 7.00

Adjusted for 2008 personnel changes: 9.00 (Mizzou's secondary returns intact, but Benn is healthy)

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Illinois 20.0

Neat, huh?  So that gives us a jumping-off point for the game.  Turnovers and special teams can certainly make up an 11-point difference, plus if the offensive line is the last thing on a team to gel, that helps Illinois, as Mizzou's O-line has further to go to gel.

Continue reading this post »

 As always, we start with practice reports.  From PowerMizzou...

Del Howard did a nice job in coverage against Earl Goldsmith. I have some questions about Howard's hands, but he looks to be doing well in coverage.

Hardy Ricks stood out to me, particularly in coverage against Jeremy Maclin on one rep. Ricks said he feels more comfortable at safety than he was at corner and I think he's picked things up well. I'll have an audio interview with Hardy, and a couple others as well, later this afternoon.

From The Missourian...

In Monday's practice, Chase Coffman was noticeably favoring his right hand. The pinkie finger was broken in practice last week, and Coffman has had it heavily wrapped underneath his gloves in practice ever since. The senior tight end said he was running routes in practice late last week, and got it tangled up in a teammate's jersey.

"It hurts quite a bit," Coffman said, when asked how it felt when he tried to catch balls. "It's a little bit of a distraction, but I just need to get out there and get used to it in case it isn't better by the time season starts."

From the Post-Dispatch...

With so many players returning, there are few starting spots up for grabs, but the scrimmage will also be important as the staff makes decisions on which freshmen will play and which won’t.

“You start leaning, the percentages start going higher,” [Pinkel] said. “Right now if a guy’s got a 70 percent chance of playing some as a freshman, that might go up to 90. We very rarely say you’re in. We’re starting to make those decisions and by the beginning of next week, we’ll pretty much be locked in.”

From Dave Matter...

Safety Gilbert Moye got chewed out after the play … and then again when he walked off the field rather than jog. It's obvious Moye has struggled at times the last week, and the body language isn't going to help his cause. But he doesn't have to look further than William Moore for some guidance. In fact, I wouldn't leave Moore's shadow if I were Moye.

I have a pretty good "transfer radar", and Moye's been my biggest transfer concern for a while.  He was a highly-recruited Texas kid, he's stuck on the 3rd string, and he sometimes displays hints of an attitude problem.  As The Beef said via e-mail yesterday, this will be a good test of Willy Mo's leadership ability.  Here's to hoping it turns around for Moye, but he's certainly been having many more ups and downs than the other safeties.

Also: both Gabe and Matter mentioned that Austin Wuebbels was getting more and more snaps at 1st-string RG.

Woohoo, the videos are back!


Gary Pinkel Interview - Day 8 of Camp from Tribune Sports on Vimeo.

 So it sounds like Mizzou will be utilizing every ounce of Carl Gettis' talent (and taking advantage of the fact that we're deep at CB) in 2008.  Meanwhile, Willy Mo is free to roam.

 The Post-Dispatch is finally back to rolling with Mizzou articles...today's is about Lorenzo Williams' growing-ever-more-capable replacement, Jaron Baston.

 As was mentioned yesterday, Mizzou did in fact get a commit from PA WR Jaleel "Boo" Clark yesterday...Gabe at PowerMizzou dug up this link on him as well.  He's not Marlon Brown, but he sounds like a pretty damn solid pickup for the Tigers...

 Finally, I forgot to mention this yesterday, but...congrats to Mizzou's other other Olympian, Linas Kleiza...who made the game-winning 3-pointer to give Lithuania a win over Manu Ginobili's Argentina squad, the defending Olympic champs.

And speaking of Mizzou...apparently we made our presence felt on the Today Show...

So as we read practice report after practice report, we can start to see a few emerging battles that we can pay attention to as the rest of August progresses (three weeks till kickoff!!!).  I thought I'd walk through the major battles (at least, 'major' as I see them).  If nothing else, this will give you something else to think about when you're reading the multitude of reports from Matter, Gabe, et cetera.

Some of the questions I had at the beginning of practice seem to have resolved themselves:

• Which freshman WR will emerge?  Answer: Jerrell Jackson.
• Will anyone challenge Jake Harry at punter?  Answer: No.
• Who will emerge as the main backup defensive tackle?  Answer: Terrell Resonno.
• Will Derrick Washington hold onto his #1 RB gig?  Answer: a resounding yes.
• Will LB depth be a problem?  Answer: not really
• Will anybody challenge Castine Bridges for starting CB opposite Carl Gettis?  Answer: nope.
• Will Blaine Gabbert challenge Chase Patton for the backup QB gig?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Dan Hoch look as good from Day One as some thought he would?  Answer: not yet.
• Will Justin Garrett face a challenge at SS?  Answer: nope.  He may be close to making a junior-to-senior surge like Pig Brown did last year.  Okay, maybe not to that extent, but he seems to know what he's doing now.

Right Guard: Dain Wise vs Austin Wuebbels

This one's come out of nowhere.  Early on we were hearing that none of the right guards could block Ziggy Hood, and after yesterday's practice it sounds like the RSFr Wuebbels has gained some steam.  Wuebbels only gained notice in the spring when he was arrested for marijuana possession, and I had somewhat written off his chances of seeing too much of the field this year.  But Wise, who has been "the next star O-Lineman" for three years now but has never seized one of the starting jobs, has failed to separate himself so far in August.  The O-line always seems like the last unit to find a rhythm when practices start, so a lot will still work itself out here (and Dan Hoch could still catch on and insert himself into the 2-deep), but for now assumed-starter Wise has a battle on his hands.  My prediction: Wise retains the job.  But here's to hoping he actually wins it instead of being the default winner.

Main Backup Defensive End: Brian Coulter vs Michael Keck

At the end of spring, two redshirt freshmen--Michael Keck and Chris Earnhardt--had seized the backup DE roles, and when you've got two senior starters, that's a pretty damn nice situation.  However, that was before God Himself, Brian Coulter, made his way to campus, and folks started thinking that he might even overtake perpetually-underappreciated Tommy Chavis as the starter opposite Stryker Sulak.  But then Coulter went and tweaked his ankle.  He's not yet to full-speed, so the Coulter vs Keck (and maybe Earnhardt) battle is still waiting to come to fruition.  But Coulter has three weeks to show his stuff, and we'll all continue to assume he'll do just that.  However...My prediction: I'm skeptical of JUCOs as a whole (though top JUCO DEs usually work out relatively well), so I say Keck is the #3 DE at the start of the season.  We'll see what's developed by mid-season, however.

Nickel Back: Del Howard vs Hardy Ricks (vs Gilbert Moye)

I don't know what to do with Hardy Ricks.  He started last year as starting CB but quickly proved that he's more adept at hitting than covering.  I was advocating, as were many others, that Ricks move to safety, especially after he got injured and lost his starting job, and he did a pretty decent job with the position in the spring.  Howard made a similar transition about 12 months ago, having his redshirt ripped off to play CB in his freshman campaign, then moving to safety in the offseason.  When Pig Brown got hurt, it was a battle for playing time between Howard and Justin Garrett, and though Howard seems to have better ball skills, Garrett was more trustworthy and got the majority of playing time.  Mizzou safeties seem to make a surge between their sophomore and junior seasons--just ask William Moore, Justin Simpson, or David Overstreet--and I've been expecting something similar with Del.  At this point, he seems steady but not necessarily any better than Ricks.

Moye, meanwhile, has a sickening amount of athletic ability but is finding out that the safety position has a pretty slow learning curve.  He seems to make more good AND bad plays than either Howard or Ricks, but I have to figure he's going to stay behind both of them in '08.  By 2009, on the other hand...we'll see.

This battle is important for playing time, but it's quite possible that two of these three will be Mizzou's starting safeties in 2009, so I'd prefer to see all continue to get more and more experience.  My prediction: I say Ricks overtakes Howard and gives Mizzou yet another hard hitter in the nickel package.

Now...I'm doing a lot of speculating considering Mizzou's only one week into August practices, and it's quite possible I could write this exact same post next Sunday with three completely different positions up for grabs.  But this team has (knock on wood) so many certainties to it right now...barring injury (KNOCK ON WOOD), we're pretty much set, unless Jerrell Jackson continues to surge and threatens Jared Perry's starting spot.