Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...

• How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday?  Success on 2nd downs.  They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
• How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday?  It appears the answer is in the trenches.  Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed.  This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples).  While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
• It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected.  Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P.  And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear.  Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)?  While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play).  Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou.  Is that coaching?  Execution?  Luck?  No idea.
• Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor.  OUCH.  Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance!  The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.

Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...

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A few quick Big 12 recaps and comments for you...

• Nebraska 35, San Jose State 12 - SJSU got it to 14-12 early in Q4 until NU finally kicked it into gear.  Marlon Lucky's Heisman campaign isn't going well.  Nor is his All-Conference campaign.  Corn Nation looks at the goods and bads.
  
• Colorado 31, Eastern Washington 24 - Well...I guess almost losing to EWU is better than losing to EWU.  Darrell Scott struggled to get going, but I'm wondering how much of that is the O-line.  Ralphie Report looks at CU's first-down struggles.
  
• Iowa State 48, Kent State 28 - REVENGE!!!  Though for the second straight week, ISU's scoreboard blowout didn't match the stats.  Clone Chronicles analyzes what's up.
  
• Kansas 29, Louisiana Tech 0 - If I'm a KU fan (and I'm very much not), I'm starting to get really, really worried about the running game.  3rd-stringer Angus Quigley did well after Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford combined for 39 yards on 14 carries.  But the defense is obviously looking good.  A nice recap at Rock Chalk Talk.
  
• Kansas State 69, Montana State 10 - Three return TDs + really bad opponent = 59-point win.
• Oklahoma 52, Cincinnati 26 - Cincy acquitted themselves relatively well, but my buddy's predictions of greatness for Ryan Broyles turned out to be pretty accurate.  CC Machine has some initial reactions...
  
• Texas Tech 35, Nevada 19 - Graham Harrell was only 19-for-46, and Colin Kaepernick had 350+ total yards, which means I'm looking forward to next week.  I'm not scared of a loss, but I'm looking forward to an interesting challenge.  Double T with thoughts and links.
  
• Texas 42, UTEP 13 - Watched some of this one.  Colt McCoy is at his best when he's running around and improvising, and he looked good last night (as did Quan Cosby).  The defense still has some improving to do, but they continuously came up with big hits when they needed to.  Nothing postgame-ish at BON yet, but I'm sure it's coming...
• Oklahoma State 56, Houston 37 - Nothing like putting up 42 points in the second half to blow open a tight game.  Kendall Hunter (210 yards rushing) and Dez Bryant (236 receiving) looked, shall we say, solid.
• Texas A&M 28, New Mexico 22 - The Jerrod Johnson era begins.  A&M's defense confused UNM's QB (Porterie) pretty well, making up for the injuries to Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson.
  
• Baylor 51, Northwestern State 6 - Check out Robert Griffin's numbers.  Even against a 1-AA opponent, he looked pretty outstanding for a true freshman.  I'm not saying Baylor's an emerging threat or anything, but they might at least resemble a real team soon.

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough.  I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Defensive Points Per Play
• Redzone Defense
• Q4 Rushing Offense
  
• 3rd Down Defense
  

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team?  Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+.  On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+.  After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season.  And the rushing offense was solid too.  They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008?  Defensively, good things.  Lots of good things.  Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon.  Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4.  If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou.  But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there.  Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance.  Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone.  Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field. 

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot.  Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas.  Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State).  They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert).  Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule.  They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

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