Remembering the Alamo Bowl
Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.
Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.
Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.
Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.
The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).
More rambling after the jump.
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Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW
You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?
KU
|
Opp. |
Mizzou |
Opp. |
|
| 68.8% | % Close | 52.5% | ||
| 49.7% | 50.3% | Field Position % | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 71.3% | 65.9% | Leverage % | 76.8% | 68.5% |
| Total | ||||
| 795 | 780 | Plays | 762 | 826 |
| 313.43 | 292.05 | EqPts | 392.41 | 265.57 |
| 47.6% | 41.8% | Success Rate | 56.8% | 42.1% |
| 0.39 | 0.37 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| 0.870 | 0.792 | S&P | 1.083 | 0.743 |
| Close Games | ||||
| 528 | 555 | Plays | 453. | 381 |
| 218.59 | 212.79 | EqPts | 228.79 | 119.84 |
| 47.9% | 43.1% | Success Rate | 57.6% | 42.8% |
| 0.41 | 0.38 | PPP | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| 0.893 | 0.814 | S&P | 1.081 | 0.742 |
| Rushing | ||||
| 115.92 | 105.62 | EqPts | 145.56 | 91.46 |
| 49.4% | 39.4% | Success Rate | 52.0% | 40.6% |
| 0.33 | 0.33 | PPP | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| 0.820 | 0.728 | S&P | 0.977 | 0.659 |
| 3.35 | 2.71 | Line Yds/carry | 3.13 | 2.73 |
| Passing | ||||
| 197.51 | 186.44 | EqPts | 246.84 | 174.12 |
| 46.0% | 43.4% | Success Rate | 60.3% | 43.3% |
| 0.45 | 0.40 | PPP | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| 0.910 | 0.837 | S&P | 1.160 | 0.809 |
| 5.9% | 4.3% | Sack Rate | 2.2% | 5.4% |
| Non-Passing Downs | ||||
| 51.7% | 46.5% | Success Rate | 61.5% | 47.1% |
| 0.38 | 0.37 | PPP | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| 0.895 | 0.831 | S&P | 1.162 | 0.794 |
| 5.3% | 3.9% | Sack Rate | 1.6% | 4.1% |
| 53.8% | 50.4% | Run Rate | 47.9% | 52.8% |
| Passing Downs | ||||
| 37.4% | 33.0% | Success Rate | 41.7% | 31.6% |
| 0.43 | 0.39 | PPP | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| 0.807 | 0.720 | S&P | 0.830 | 0.636 |
| 6.8% | 4.8% | Sack Rate | 3.6% | 7.1% |
| 23.4% | 23.5% | Run Rate | 23.5% | 26.7% |
| Turnovers | ||||
| 19 | 21 | Total | 17 | 19 |
| 43.19 | 61.28 | Points Lost | 48.11 | 45.63 |
| 46.04 | 50.30 | Points Given | 34.23 | 71.73 |
| 89.23 | 111.58 | Total T/O Pts | 82.34 | 117.36 |
| +22.35 | -22.35 | T/O Pts Margin/Gm | +35.02 | -35.02 |
Thoughts after the jump...
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The Fog of '09 - North Defenses
Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.
Defensive Lines
- Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
- Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
- Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
- Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
- Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
- Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)
That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.
Linebackers
- Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
- Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
- Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
- Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
- Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
- Kansas (?)
I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.
Defensive Backs
- Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
- Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
- Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
- Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
- Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
- Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)
Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.
Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.
North Defenses, 2009
- Nebraska (15)
- Missouri (12)
- Kansas State (11)
- Iowa State (10)
- Kansas (9)
- Colorado (6)
As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.
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Rock M Roundtable!
We got to questions eventually, I promise. But let's just pick up where the action began...
The Beef: So…while The Boy is in a morning meeting…anyone want to attempt to make this the earliest a Roundtable has ever gone careening off of the tracks? Who wants to fire the first salvo?
rptgwb: Ron Prince.
Go, Beef, go!
The Beef: No no...am not falling for that trap right there...I cursed all I wanted to the other day.
I did however see an article where the Gator Bowl is on record saying they would basically want a 7-5 Notre Dame or an 8-4 Nebraska over a 10-3 Mizzou squad....
rptgwb: Gator Bowl: Wrong for America.
Michael Atchison: What does this have to do with how hot Dave's sister is?
The Beef: Dave's Sister: Right for Everyone
Doug: And, boom goes the dynamite.
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Mizzou Links, 11-5-08
It's...Cut to the Chase! And this news...
Looks like the entire senior class will be the honorary senior captain for Saturday’s home finale against Kansas State. As I understand it, Aaron O’Neal’s father, Lonnie O’Neal, will be introduced during the pregame ceremony wearing Aaron’s No. 25.
Awesome.
It's...Tuesday's Top Tigers!
It's...the Trib Podcast! And while we're at it...it's Mike Dearmond's vlog!
It's...THE BAZOOKA FIELD GOAL!!!
K-State Links!
- The Trib: Coffman eyeing playing despite toe still hurting
- KC Star: Prince has hand in Wildcats' offense, defense and special teams (not something I'd be admitting right about now)
Aaaaaaaand that's about it. Nobody's talking about this game.
So we obviously go out of our way to not mention politics much here, but I must say...this Missourian article is pretty funny.
Don't expect to find a pair of podiums tucked in a back corner of the Missouri locker room, stored for the team's weekly debates. Make no mistake though, when it comes to politics, the team is hardly apathetic.
"(Junior punter) Jake Harry tends to read up on a lot of stuff, so he tends to think he knows a lot," said junior linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. "He doesn't really have a problem expressing himself."
He's not the only one. Junior defensive tackle Jaron Baston was tagged as one of the most boisterous political mouths by several Tigers.
"Jaron, though, he'll argue about anything," linebacker Brock Christopher said.
Brian "God" Coulter: starting to thrive.
Finally, to basketball...and a nice Missourian article about freshman forward Laurence Bowers.
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Mizzou-Baylor (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score
Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...
Mizzou
|
Baylor
|
|
| % Close = 100.0% | ||
| 51.4% | Field Position % |
48.6% |
| 80.8% | Leverage % |
75.9% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 73 | Plays | 79 |
| 31.56 | EqPts | 29.73 |
| 63.0% | Success Rate | 53.2% |
| 0.43 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.38 |
| 1.062 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.908 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | same |
| same | EqPts | same |
| same | Success Rate | same |
| same | PPP | same |
| same | S&P | same |
| RUSHING | ||
| 9.45 | EqPts | 11.85 |
| 57.6% | Success Rate | 57.5% |
| 0.29 | PPP | 0.30 |
| 0.862 | S&P | 0.871 |
| 3.43 | Line Yards/carry |
3.20 |
| PASSING | ||
| 22.10 | EqPts | 17.88 |
| 67.5% | Success Rate | 48.7% |
| 0.55 | PPP | 0.46 |
| 1.228 | S&P | 0.946 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 69.5% | Success Rate | 56.7% |
| 0.43 | PPP | 0.29 |
| 1.120 | S&P | 0.856 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 35.7% | Success Rate | 42.1% |
| 0.46 | PPP | 0.65 |
| 0.820 | S&P | 1.073 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 2 |
| 9.39 | Points Lost | 5.50 |
| 4.93 | Points Given | 4.27 |
| 14.32 | Total T/O Pts | 9.77 |
| -4.55 | Turnover Pts Margin | +4.55 |
| 1.315 | Q1 S&P | 0.842 |
| 1.183 | Q2 S&P | 0.953 |
| 0.790 | Q3 S&P | 1.041 |
| 0.807 | Q4 S&P | 0.702 |
| 0.970 | 1st Down S&P | 0.739 |
| 1.158 | 2nd Down S&P | 1.066 |
| 1.156 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.741 |
- How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday? Success on 2nd downs. They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
- How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday? It appears the answer is in the trenches. Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed. This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples). While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
- It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected. Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P. And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear. Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)? While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play). Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou. Is that coaching? Execution? Luck? No idea.
- Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor. OUCH. Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance! The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.
Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...
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Mizzou Links, 10-28-08
Press conference quotes! "5:30 on Saturday" was not a gimmick, you hear me? Now where was I? Oh yeah...2:00 on Saturday.
"('5:30 Saturday') wasn't a gimmick. It was probably my frustration. We didn't play very well and we played a great team (Texas). You're not giving your best effort, we weren't a very focused team. My concern was that they would lose focus. We had to put an abrupt stop to that. So we took it very, very seriously. We don't ever talk about a future opponent around here ever ... All that's out there now with watching themselves on ESPN, and walking around campus, my big thing was working with the seniors and the staff that we need every ounce of your focus on that moment. We're going to try and do the same thing this week. I didn't ask the players to win. I asked them to play hard, with a great effort. It wasn't a gimmick in any way, it was to get everyone on my staff and the team focused on one moment in time and put all our attention on that. "
PowerMizzou's got audio.
Brian Coulter: related to Robert Griffin. Seriously? Is it possible to have that much sheer greatness in one family?
[Griffin's] arrival has gained their attention.
Especially that of Missouri junior defensive end Brian Coulter, who just recently found out that he’s a distant cousin of the Baylor quarterback. Coulter got a phone call from Griffin’s dad earlier this week and plans to get in touch with Griffin sometime this week before the game.
“Now what I’d really like is for someone to get a really good picture of me sacking him in the game,” he said, laughing. (Note to Baylor, that wasn’t bulletin board material. Coulter was obviously kidding.)
Baylor Links!
- Mutigers.com: Official Release ("[Jeff] Wolfert is on pace to break an NCAA career record for best accuracy for combined field goals and PATs. Wolfert’s combined career mark of 95.5% is currently ahead of the record of 93.3% set by UCLA’s John Lee from 1982-85 (116-of-117 PATs, 79-of-92 FGs).")
- The Missourian: Tigers blocking out distractions
- Waco Tribune-Herald: Baylor OL Jordan Hearvey to miss rest of season
- Dallas Morning News: Injuries leave Baylor defense backed into a corner
As always Monday meant Dave Matter's Big 12 Notes and Like Father, Unlike Son...
Luke Lambert: NOT a baby daddy.
Jeremy Maclin: better than last year.
The Missourian has a nice article on two Mizzou pitchers who have separate rooting interests in the World Series...Kyle "Drafted by Phillies" Gibson and Brad "Drafted by Rays" Buehler.
Finally, a shoutout to some pretty impressive investors who are helping to make SB Nation the most financially sturdy of the sports blog networks...thank you much...
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Mizzou Links, 10-15-08
It's time for Cut to the Chase (with your very own Unitas Award finalist)!
Who's the culprit for Jeremy Maclin's bruised knee? Brian Coulter. Not sure why Mizzou's very own God would do something like that...
Texas Links!
- Dallas Morning News: Texas' Brown understands Sooners hangover
- PowerMizzou: Texas offensive preview
- The Missourian: Texas faces stiff tests in Missouri, upcoming games
- Post-Dispatch: Tigers must give Daniel time
- Post-Dispatch: Longhorns' 'D' has applied the pressure
- Mizzourah: Good, Bad & Sleezy
- Austin American-Statesman: Four wideout-package was a big hit for UT against Sooners
- Stewart Mandel: Texas new #1 in power rankings
Danario Alexander: still recovering, and still ridiculously athletic. Chase Coffman: best TE in the country.
Somebody's writing about Mizzou basketball? Interesting...
And finally...Border War Showdown. Hearnes Center. Tonight. Go.
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Michael Keck leaves Mizzou football program
Dave Matter, Gabe Dearmond and others have confirmed yesterday's rumor--RSFr Michael Keck has quit the football team for "personal reasons". From most accounts, it appears that it was just a case of "this isn't as easy as it used to be". Maybe there's more to it than that, maybe not. I wish him well.
In all, this appears to be a "hurts our depth" problem more than a "hurts our immediate product on the field" problem. Keck seemed competent out there, but he wasn't a big playmaker, and true freshman Jacquies Smith seemed to have already surpassed him for PT. It hurts because you always want the big-time in-state kids to succeed here so that other big-time in-state kids see them succeeding, but I can't get myself too worked up about this one. Defensive End is a position of decent young depth for Mizzou, so we should be okay there. Next year we'll be choosing a starter from a pool of Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, Marcus Malbrough, Chris Earnhardt, Aldon Smith, and whatever other recruits we sign (Sheldon Richardson, etc.). No matter what, there will probably be a dropoff from what we're accustomed to this year--Stryker Sulak and Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis have served us quite well, and Keck was not going to change that whether he was in uniform or not. But again, I wish him well.
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Big 12 Roundtable: Preseason Edition
The "Week of Roundtables" continues! The first edition of the Big 12 Roundtable is once again being spearheaded by Matt over at Crimson and Cream Machine.
1. There has been lots of talk this pre-season about scheduling. Colorado has arguably the strongest schedule but who do you think has the weakest and which cream puff on your teamʼs schedule do you wish wasnʼt there?
RMN: I don't think there's much question that Colorado has the toughest slate, but everyone is overlooking solid non-conference tests for Baylor and Oklahoma. The Bears will have their hands full with Wake Forest, Washington State and UConn in what could be a very rough intro to Baylor life for Art Briles. Oklahoma, after its cupcake date with Tennessee-Chattanooga, could be tested by either Cincy or TCU, and gets a front row seat to the Jake Locker experience on the road in Washington in between. Kansas State's slate would have been up with the best, but the dumping of Fresno State in favor of Montana State plummets their schedule near that conference cellar.
The weakest schedule, outside of a small argument for Kansas State, is far and away Texas Tech. Now, I'm not about to go condemning them for the schedule, as it seems most outlets ripping Tech completely ignored the extenuating circumstances. The Red Raiders slate of Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMass should provide little to no threat to Leach and Co.
As for Missouri, I'm in the process of pretending that the Southeast Missouri State isn't going to happen. Feel free to join me.
2. As a whole the Big 12 has the best quarterbacks in the country. Make a case for your quarterback being one of the conferenceʼs top signal callers and tell us which other conference quarterback you would pick to replace him if you had to.
RMN: I shouldn't have to make too much of a case for Chase Booger "Great Watermelon Balls of Fury" Daniel. You can start with his Heisman invite last year. You can continue with his 62 career touchdowns, 143.82 passer rating and nearly 9,000 total yards. You can look past the stats and go on intangibles alone. You can end with the short, undervalued gunslinger from Southlake leading Mizzou to heights not seen in a generation. There's no doubt the Big 12 is stacked with a ridiculous amount of talent at the quarterback position, but in my humble yet biased opinion, the controversy starts at No. 2 behind Daniel.
Replacing Daniel is a tough task, but that has a lot to do with personal biases. Graham Harrell puts up huge numbers and has a gun of an arm, but he is neither mentally nor physically tough. Ditto for Colt McCoy. Sam Bradford is extremely efficient, but I wonder what he would do if he wasn't behind the impenetrable force known as the Sooner O-Line. I love Todd Reesing's grittiness, but, come on, this is a Missouri site - I'm NOT taking Reesing to replace Daniel. Can I cop out and make a hybrid? I'll take the leadership of Reesing, the arm of Harrell, the composure of Bradford, the legs of Texas backup John Chiles and the cojones of Stephen McGee. I just created the Tim Tebow of the Big 12.
More questions after the jump...
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