Remember the other day, when I said that a handful of schools hog all the big-time recruits?  Well, we're getting to see that process in action.  Florida called Mizzou soft commit Sheldon Richardson the other day, relatively out-of-the-blue, and...

"I said, 'Well, yeah, of course,'" Richardson said. "It's Florida, man. I said, 'You stand a great chance.'"

So now Richardson, the top-rated defensive tackle and the fourth-best player in the 2009 class by Rivals.com, is looking at re-arranging his visit schedule to make it to Gainesville. There is no official date set, though.

Just the way it works, I guess.  He does also reaffirm that he really does like Mizzou, though, so I guess that's something...we'll see.

Also from PowerMizzou: a decent "hot board" of remaining potential recruits and when they might be coming for a visit.

It's a Dave Matter...MAILBAG!!!

Q: Dave, do you see Gahn McGaffey [sic] being a playmaker for us next year? Any chance Kemp grows into a TE? Thanks. - Brian

A: I was impressed with McGaffie's hands and elusiveness during preseason camp. If Maclin leaves, he's a guy I'd think can make plays out of the slot both running and receiving. Could be a nice returnman, too.

As for Kemp, I think he's fine at receiver, especially considering Jones and Egnew are in place at tight end. It's all semantics anyway. Of MU's three receiver spots and tight end position, all four are interchangeable and can line up anywhere on the field.

If Mizzou does manage to ink Richardson one year after landing Blaine Gabbert, they might be in the running for a third-straight recruiting season with a 5-star recruit: they're in the running for Bishop Miege's Justin McCay, and McCay's in the running for 5 stars, at least from Scout.com...

I realize we haven't moved past the inimitable Stetson Hatters yet, but it's probably time to start getting geared up for Braggin' Rights...so we'll start by visiting the fantastic YouTube channel of dbooker34 (the ZouDave of basketball, only without the funny pics and, uhh, hot sister nevermind) for highlights of the best Braggin' Rights game ever...1993.  The audio's choppy, but a) the emotion is awesome and b) god bless the Checkerdome.

Finally, The Trib's Steve Walentik takes a look at how the change in the distance of the 3-point stripe has...not really changed too much.

I just can't tell you how much I was hoping to write a Mizzou-Texas Tech preview this week.  But instead of moping around about it, it's on to the numbers!

Thoughts after the jump...

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Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

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Atch is out today...he sent in his contribution below...

1 - Three teams remain in the running for the Big 12 South--Texas, OU, and Texas Tech.  Of the three, who would you most rather face in title game, and who would you least rather face?

2 - Wants aside, who do you think we will face?  (And since your answer will be directly impacted by this game, who wins OU-TT this weekend?)

3 - Favorite moment from the 2008 season thus far?

4 - A week later, I'll ask it again: Any thoughts about your local basketball club yet?

5 - Both Missouri and Kansas have ridiculous numbers of freshmen on this year's basketball team...just a week into their respective careers, who's your favorite to this point?

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Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

• The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
• After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge.  Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones.  Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
• For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark.  Good to see.  We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
• ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
• It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

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Hmmm...I just do not see that getting old any time soon...Big XII North Champions.  Not saying it is my destination, but saying it is nice to see this team accomplish it in back to back seasons when other seasons have had the same expectation. 

At any rate, this was a REALLY busy weekend for Mizzou sports, as the winter sports are geared up and the fall sports are winding down.  Lots of stuff to cover and some random thoughts on football and NASCAR.

Football:

Thanks to DirecTV (all the more ironic since I work for a competitor),I was only able to see that last three quarters of action.  At any rate, I have not read or heard enough to know if the team knew the fate of the UT/kU game when they took the field.  In all honesty, I kind of hope they did know and were able to go out there and take care of business like they did.  Chase looked comfortable again, save for the two interceptions (one which did not count, and the one that did.  Speaking of the one that did not count, I think it is funny that a roughing the passer can negate an INT. To me, the ball is gone, it should be change of possession and 15 yards off...but that is just me).  What I hope happened this past week was that while we continued to pay lip service to the fact that Chase Coffman COULD play, we went ahead and game planned that he would not.  I am not entirely sure we did that for the kSU game, and I think it showed in the offense's efficiency.  This time around, Jones looked more than ready to step in and things clicked better.  As it pertains to Coffman, all the more reason he is the most important cog (except for Daniel) out there and why he needs to be 100 percent for the Championship game.  I will be honest, I think we can beat kU without him, but we do not likely stand a chance against any of the four from the south without him.

On defense...gosh..I wish we could just wrap up and tackle.  WAY too many shoulder tackles which do not work at this level. Saw one from Willy Mo, another from Lambert and others where I do not remember the people specifically.  Nice game by Chavis (even if the announcer could not say his name correctly) and nice to see Gettis further earn his rep as a lock-down corner with an interception.  And I am still looking for the superior effort on D. Wash's long TD run, but the more I see it, the more it just seems to be a product of the system and Washington's really wonderful vision.  He just glided around and took the correct angles which resulted in ISU guys getting naturally sealed off of him and went from there.

As for "hate" week and what-not, you will find I will probably not participate too much in it.  To me, these next two weeks are just a long two weeks without Mizzou playing, with a stop-over for the OU/TTech game next Saturday.  As for some perspective on the season and this accomplishment...maybe next week...we'll see.  I think I am of the opinion that if I do not talk about the closing of this season, it just wont end :-)

Soccer:

Not too much left to cover on this one, as it was pretty well hashed out on the pages of Rock M over this past weekend.  The ladies went right out and stomped on the throat of Evansville on a terrible Friday night with goals in the 3rd minute and the 33rd minute.  A win of 2-0, along with a 2OT thriller between Memphis and Illinois (which Illinois won) figured to have the Tigers in a good spot.  But, after a scoreless 1st half, Illinois got on the board early in the 2nd.  The Tigers fought back on a goal from freshman Mallory Stipetech and evened it at one.  They went all the way to penalty kicks (some would argue a terrible way to finish a game) and were even at 4 goals each on the 5th kick when back-up goalie and occasional field player Mallory Forst stepped up to take the kick.. She was unsuccessful, and the Tigers finished their season with another 2nd round of the NCAA tourney loss, again in 2OT (or more).

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Ross mentioned it yesterday, but we start today's Links with some Mizzou soccer links...they lost a heartbreaker in PKs to Illinois yesterday.

• Mutigers.com: Soccer ends season in Penalty Kick Shootout
• The Missourian: Tigers eliminated in NCAA Tournament
• Post-Dispatch: Missouri loses NCAA women's soccer playoff to Illinois
• FightingIllini.com: Illinois Cages Tigers in PKs, Advances to NCAA Round of 16
• NCAAsports.com: Tourney Bracket--Illinois will now play North Carolina, who outscored their weekend opponents, 9-0

On to happier news...we've got your Big 12 Championship ticket info right here!!!

Iowa State wrap-up links!

• KC Star: It's a championship, so enjoy it, Mizzou
• Post-Dispatch: Tigers are focused on return to Big 12 Championship game
• Post-Dispatch: Tigers setting priorities, taking schedule one game at a time
• The Trib: Tigers celebrate with eye on bigger game
• The Trib: Storm erasers
• PowerMizzou: Sunday Grade Card
• The Trib: Game Notes ("Mr. Jones makes his mark)
• The Missourian: Jones plays while Coffman heals
• The Missourian: MU football wants more than Big 12 North crown
• The Missourian: Things go Missouri's way
• Des Moines Register: Missouri proves to be the king of the North
• Ames Tribune: Tiger offense overwhelms Cyclones

The P-D's Vahe Gregorian talks about how Missouri is now the team to beat in the North.

The win was MU's 10th in a row against a North opponent, going back to their last game here in 2006. Moreover, only twice in that span have North teams come closer than 14 points away from Mizzou.

But that's just the exclamation point on a trend that began six years ago. Since then, MU leads all Big 12 North teams in conference victories with 27. Nebraska is second with 24, Kansas third with 21.

Of course, being labeled the best of the North is a dubious achievement in contrast with the Big 12 South, which currently has four top 10 teams. MU will have much to prove when it meets either Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Texas in the Big 12 title game on Dec. 6.

Finally, since we're all about the bullet points today, here are some basketball links!

• KC Star: MU's Denmon shows poise early
• The Trib: Dynamic debut ("On a day when senior forwards Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll combined to score 40 points and pull down 17 rebounds and Marcus Denmon dumped in 15 more off the bench, [Miguel] Paul’s contributions might have been as important as any for Missouri, which won for the 35th time in its last 36 home openers.")
• The Missourian: MU guard shares some things with all-star cousin (Did you know Miguel Paul's cousin is Chris Paul???  I had no idea!)
• Steve Walentik: Postgame thoughts
• KC Star: Missouri's newcomers shine in romp over Prairie View A&M

So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step.  I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing.  Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week.  Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs.  You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently?  If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

• So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
• They split in turnover margin...
• They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
• They won the field-position battle...
• They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
• They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
• They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
• And they lost.  Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
• There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge.  Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin).  OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers).  Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
• Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled.  They were fast, and they didn't miss.  That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

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Another commit for the 2009 Mizzou recruiting class!  This time it's, to the surprise of nobody, JUCO safety Jasper Simmons.  He held offers from teams like K-State, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, which is impressive considering we haven't had great luck recruiting against the Right Reverend Nutt over the years.

Meanwhile, the best LB (that we know of) left on the Mizzou's recruiting board is visiting Nebraska this weekend.

Media day quotes!  Pinkel gives us some personnel updates...

To give you update on personnel, (junior OL) Kurtis Gregory had turned his ankle in the 1st quarter against Buffalo, but he practiced full on Saturday and Sunday and he's certainly probable. (Senior strong safety) William Moore also practiced both of those days and we expect him to play also. Otherwise, I think we're in pretty good shape. (Junior WR) Danario Alexander continues to work with his knee and get better. I think his confidence grows as he does that. We moved (freshman) Michael Egnew, he was a wide receiver, but he came in at tight end. We knew eventually he was going to play tight end, and we moved him back there. We think with Danario Alexander coming back, that's a good move and he's doing a good job there.

It's the official release for the Nebraska game!  We've got McDonough, Spielman and Stoner, who aren't the best crew out there, but they're one of the more entertaining, so we've got that going for us.  Good live-blogging material, I'm sure.

If Nebraska wants to beat Mizzou, they might want to start fast...

Getting out to a good start has not been a problem for Mizzou thus far in 2008. The Tigers have scored a TD on every game-opening possession in 2008, and the Mizzou defense has held opponents scoreless in their opening possessions, as well. That 28-0 advantage in opening drives has certainly played a big part in explaining why Mizzou has trailed only once this season - and that lasted for just :13 seconds against Illinois, when, after the Illini took a 13-10 2nd-quarter lead in the season opener, Jeremy Maclin returned the ensuing kickoff 99 yards for a TD to regain the lead.

While it's no surprise that Mizzou's high-flying offense has scored early and often, the Tiger defense has also been stingy to open ballgames, holding its first four foes to a total of 2 combined first downs and 12 combined total yards in the four game-opening drives. The Tiger defense has also started the 2nd half strong, allowing opponents no points on their initial drives in the 3rd quarter, while the Tiger offense has scored twice.

Nebraska links!

• The Missourian: MU defense hears Lucky's words ("You can't get caught up in the bulletin board material, but we appreciate the bulletin board material," linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said, grinning. "It gives us a little more confidence. It gives us an edge, because we know guys are out there talking smack about us, and we just want to show guys what we can do.)
• KC Star: Mizzou's Jones went from recruit to recruiter ("Jones used a different tactic to recruit Gabbert, the No. 1-rated quarterback in the state, out of Parkway West High School. Jones, already friends with Gabbert from their days attending Nebraska and Missouri football camps, called Gabbert every name in the book. And a few that might not be listed.")
• Lincoln Journal-Star: Huskers hoping to win red-zone battles
• Dave Matter: Monday notes
• The Missourian: Nebraska braces for Missouri offense
• Omaha World-Herald: [DB Coach Marvin] Sanders expects NU defense to improve
• Post-Dispatch: Tigers, Huskers reverse roles
• Post-Dispatch: Mizzou knows how mighty can fall
• Omaha World-Herald: Will Missouri's QB have a big game against Huskers this Saturday?  (What a strange headline...like nobody's heard of "Missouri's QB" or something)
• Lincoln Journal-Star: Husker defenders know they need to sharpen their focus

Dave Matter's got his weekly Big 12 football notes...

And finally, SI's Gene Menez talks about the Heisman contenders "Chasing Chase" in his latest Heisman Watch column...

Oh yeah, and be sure to watch tonight's E:60 on ESPN for the Jeremy Maclin feature...

We're trying out a couple of new figures today...please try to contain your excitement...

* Field Position % = an attempt to get at the field position battle.  This basically says that there were a total of 74 plays run in opponents' field position, and Mizzou ran 63.5% of them (47) to Buffalo's 36.5% (27).

** Leverage % = the % of a team's total plays that were Non-Passing Downs.  Mizzou ran 74 total plays, and 61 of them were Non-Passing Downs.  61/74 = 82.4%.  The higher the number, the better an offense was at staying out of Passing Downs and awkward situations.

So what do these numbers tell us?  Basically the same thing that our eyes did--that Mizzou statistically dominated, but Buffalo was good at a) holding onto the ball (75 plays was more than I thought they ran...especially considering how generally unsuccessful they were) and b) ripping the ball out of Mizzou's hands.  Kenji Jackson's game-ending INT helped Mizzou in the Turnover Points Margin, but in the end turnovers kept the Fightin' Turner Gills in the game.

One thing our eyes may not have seen was just how unsuccessful Buffalo was at running the ball.  They had some success with the toss sweeps at times, but let's just say that anytime Mizzou allows a 0.400 S&P on the ground, I'll take it.  Buffalo was just good enough at passing to move the chains, but their lack of big-play potential (sans the one long TD on the double-move) killed them.  To beat Mizzou you have to a) force turnovers and b) put up as many easy points as possible.  Buffalo succeeded at (a), but not at (b), and that's why they still lost by 21.

One more thing: a 67.6% success rate is just sick.  To date, Mizzou's been both efficient and explosive.  Buffalo tackled wonderfully, and that limited Mizzou's explosiveness (even Mizzou's biggest gain--the bomb to Tommy Saunders--was shorter than it could have been because of good tackling), but they could do nothing to Mizzou's efficiency.  Efficiency was why Tim Tebow ran away with the Heisman last year, and it's why Chase Daniel is threatening to do the same (though granted, we're only one-third through the regular season).

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