It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!!  At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
• Projection #1: 19.27
• Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
• Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
• Projection #1: 17.06
  
• Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
• Projection #2: 14.58
  

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends.  Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
• Projection #1: 11.08
• 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
• Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
• Projection #2: 9.53
  

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
• Projection #1: 15.32
• 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
• Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
• Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball.  Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

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Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

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