Rock M Nation

Mizzou opens as 14.5-point dogs

2008-12-01T18:08:20Z

Mizzou opens as 14.5-point dogs

Bettors wasted no time letting Vegas know what they thought of the opening line, as it's since been pushed into the 16.5-17.0 range pretty rapidly.

So, if I set the line at 16.5, what do you think?

Too high? Too low? Just right?

No Monday Musings today...

2008-12-01T13:30:06Z

I don't think it is any secret I do most of the Musings in whatever free time I have on Sundays. However, after a lengthy trip to MN and getting back Sunday night, there just is not enough time, especially given what I walked into at work this morning. Therefore, the Monday Musings will be pushed back a day, and I will still cover the FOUR dual meets (all wins by the way) Mizzou had in wrestling on Saturday. Until then...congrats to DC on his new position and I will see you all tomorrow.

Mizzou Links, 12-1-08

2008-12-01T12:00:06Z

A somewhat abbreviated Links today, as I'm off work today and sleeping in...and we're keeping this one positive, so...no KU links, and no soon-to-be-OU-destruction links...

Christensen-to-Wyoming Links!

First things first, Dave Matter reported late last night that Christensen will stick around for the Big 12 Championship and bowl game.
The Trib: Christensen headed to Wyoming
Wyoming has been the launching pad for several former head coaches who went on to have successful careers elsewhere, including Bob Devaney, Pat Dye, Dennis Erickson and Joe Tiller. Joe Glenn had been the Cowboys coach since 2003 but was fired last Sunday after compiling a 30-41 record in six seasons at the Mountain West Conference program. Wyoming had one winning season under Glenn, a 7-5 finish in 2004. Wyoming has been part of the Mountain West since 1999 and prior to that played in Western Athletic Conference since 1962.
Laramie Boomerang: Mizzou Asst. Head Coach Wyoming Bound
Christensen’s offense produced no fewer than three major national awards candidates. Then junior quarterback Chase Daniel was a Heisman Trophy finalist (finishing fourth in final Heisman voting), while senior tight end Martin Rucker and freshman wide receiver Jeremy Maclin were both consensus First Team All-Americans, marking the first time in MU history it has had two consensus first teamers in a single year.
Post-Dispatch: Christensen to Wyoming; Eberflus interviews at Toledo
It's unclear whether any MU assistants will leave with Christensen, nor or it evident who will ascend to his job. Insiders believe the most obvious candidates internally would be quarterbacks coach David Yost, who has been with Pinkel since 1996, and receivers coach Andy Hill, the former Tiger receiver who came aboard the coaching staff with Larry Smith and now is in his 13th season at MU.
And while we're at it...Toledo Blade: UT likely to interview Eberflus
Eberflus, 38, is a Whitmer High School graduate. UT athletic director Mike O'Brien hopes to make a hire by early December. Other possible candidates are thought to be Arizona defensive coordinator Mark Stoops and former Iowa State coach Dan McCarney.

Oral Roberts Links!

The Missourian: Lyons helps Tigers hold off Oral Roberts
The Trib: Lyons, Carroll too much for Oral Roberts
KC Star: Lyons & Carroll star in Mizzou win

Also, a quick programming note: I normally post a weekly Big 12 BTBS wrap-up on Mondays and MU game wrap-up on Tuesday...it's all getting bumped back a day. Expect an Oral Roberts box score wrap-up later today, though. I know you don't want to miss that!

Poll

Dave Christensen will remain Mizzou's offensive coordinator for the next month or so. Right move?

Apply today for a 2008 Big 12 Championship Fan Visa!

2008-12-01T00:04:16Z

Are you a lover of BCS chaos? A burnt orange aficionado disenfranchised by a computer algorithim? A Big 12 North fan tired of seeing the "big money" schools in Austin and Norman waltz away with conference supremacy?

Fear not, there IS room for you on the Missouri bandwagon. (And, yes, feel free to take a seat vacated by those who jumped off the edge after last Saturday's debacle in Kansas City)

For all non-Mizzou fans who will be cheering for the black and gold next Saturday, see below for Rock M Nation's official Big 12 Championship Fan Visa. Your visa permits you temporary Missouri fandom without any strings attached.

Apply today!

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP FAN VISA
(Answer in the comments section)

APPLICATION SECTION

Please state your SB Nation user name, and, if desired, your legal name.
Please state from where you will be viewing the 2008 Big 12 Championship.
Declare your primary college football allegiance.
What brings you to the Missouri bandwagon this weekend?

DISCLAIMERS

By applying for a temporary fan visa:

You will NOT be held liable for fandom once the visa expires on the morning of Dec. 7, 2008.
You accept the consequences of putting your hopes in Missouri athletics, including but not limited to severe depression, destroyed faith, damaged trust, nausea, and a desire to punch Matt Davison and Tyus Edney in the throat.
You promise not to mention any incidents involving nasal passages or mispronunciations. You also promise to pay proper respect to Professor Chaos by paying extra attention to correct spellings.

SIGN AND DATE

After answering the four questions listed above, type your name and today's date, officially securing your temporary visa for Missouri fandom.

Mizzou finally has its opponent

2008-11-30T21:45:04Z

Sure, the photo is old and Chris Simms isn't exactly at Texas anymore, but the sentiment from the BCS remains the same.

Missouri becomes America's team this week as it tries to set the BCS world aflame, taking on Oklahoma next Saturday at Arrowead for the Big 12 Title.

And, don't forget: 2003 Kansas State.

Poll

Match-ups with Mizzou aside, who do you feel SHOULD have won the Big 12 South?

Post-Dispatch reporting Christensen taking Wyoming Job

2008-11-30T17:10:59Z

Post-Dispatch reporting Christensen taking Wyoming Job

It looks like Missouri is going to lose offensive coordinator/assistant head coach Dave Christensen to Wyoming.

The Laramie Boomerang is reporting that Christensen has reached an agreement in principle to become the Cowboys head coach and was in Laramie Saturday night after Missouri’s loss to Kansas to work out the details.

Congratulations to Dave, he deserves a shot. Best of luck in the future with the Cowboys! Don't take it personally when we kick your ass in 2011 and 2012.

Quick thoughts on MU-KU...

2008-11-30T03:31:30Z

I'm sure Ross will post some thoughts at some point as well, but in the meantime...

* This just wasn't the season we thought it would be. Plain and simple. One thing I hate doing is determining blame, so I'll leave that to others. As a fan, all I can say is, the bounces didn't go our way in big moments this year, and while Mizzou fans should almost never be disappointed with 9-3, this was the one year where 9-3 felt like a bit of a failure.

* Of course, next week we get a chance to make everybody forget this moment by doing something amazing. It probably won't happen, but that is a good reminder of something else: we won our second straight North title this year. Bears mentioning.

* I don't know why our blitz hasn't worked this year, but...our blitz hasn't worked this year. Our defensive line generates a decent pass rush, but I can't think of many times where a big blitz produced a big play. Today was obviously no different. Strategically, I think blitzing on 4th-and-7 was the correct aggressive play. But it's hard to completely agree with the call since the blitz has been so ineffective. I'd like to think our blitz gets better next year with missiles like Ebner and Gachkar getting more familiar with the defense and more involved, but...we'll see.

* I've already seen other sites saying how Mizzou "choked" this game away. I just don't see it. We sucked in the first half, held it together, came back in the second half, and it became a "who gets the ball last?" situation. Todd Reesing outdueled Chase Daniel, KU played its best game of the year and won a big rivalry game at the last second...I guess I just reserve the word "choke" for more extreme situations than this.

* I can't give Todd Reesing enough credit for this effort. He was pretty damn mediocre the last couple of times I saw him play, but he was on tonight. What makes it more impressive is, we hit him...a lot.

* Chase Coffman = balls. A couple of times, instead of trying to slow down once he started running, he just fell down. He was clearly in pain...about half-speed...and he caught six balls and 2 TDs. I'm really gonna miss the Flying Nunchuk. Clearly he's not going to be 100% next week (for the second straight Big 12 title game), but I just hope he's healed for the bowl game...just so I get one last chance to watch him fly around.

* I wrote a lot about 2009 earlier this week, and I'm at least partially optimistic about Mizzou's chances thanks to the OL and Derrick Washington...but obviously Reesing/Briscoe/Meier (and Stuckey) will have something to say about that.

* Does this mean we can retire the gold jerseys?

Live Thread: Mizzou vs. Kansas

2008-11-29T13:30:06Z

Armageddon at Arrowhead, version 2.0 Let the Border War commence:

Who: No. 12 Missouri Tigers (9-2, 5-2) at Kansas Jayhawks (6-5, 3-4)
Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Capacity 77,038)
When: 11:40 a.m. CST
Line: Missouri by 16.0

VS.

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike "To The House" Kelly, John Kadlec, Chris Gervino)
TV: FSN (Bill Land, Dave Lapham, Jim Knox)
Weather: Hourly Forecast
Online trackers: CSTV, ESPN

Make Rock M Nation your base of operations tonight and weigh in with your predictions, questions, worries, bold statements and observations by signing up for a free account. No hyperbole, no jokes, no rhetorical questions...

M-I-Z, F-k-U.

Party like it's 1863.

Fight Tigers... Rock, Flag and Eagle!

Live Blog after the jump.

Next Game

Kansas Jayhawks
@ Missouri Tigers

Saturday, Nov 29, 2008, 11:30 AM CST
Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, MO

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

posted by The Boy about 13 hours ago

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Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #5)

posted by The Boy about 16 hours ago

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posted by rptgwb about 24 hours ago

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Complete Coverage >

Today's motivational video... What more do you need?

11:41 - Game hasn't kicked off yet, and I'm already tired of Dave Lapham, but...IT'S GAME TIME NOW!!

11:42 - Mizzou gets the ball to start the proceedings. Crazy. Maclin hemmed in around the 30.

11:43 - My wife: "Well, the gold isn't as bad as I thought it would be."

11:43 - First play is an out route to Perry off target, incomplete. Second play is a drop by Washington. Methinks the ball is a hair slick. Third down.

11:44 - Play #3 = interception by Stuckey, returned to the MU 20. Not exactly the start I was looking for. Another pick, and Mizzou better call timeout and take the whole team into the locker room to change into black jerseys.

11:45 - Quickly a third-and-long for KU from the MU 17...and KU drops a pass of their own. FG time.

11:46 - Branstetter's 34-yarder is good, and KU takes an early 3-0 lead.

11:49 - My wife is pleased to know that I actually <i>don't</i> know the shirtless dude they just showed on camera. It was 50/50.

11:50 - Decent kickoff return for Maclin, and Mizzou will start their second drive from the 35. Time to actually play well now.

11:51 - A couple small plays, and it's 3rd-and-6 for Mizzou. Come on guys...

...Daniel with a bomb on his back foot, dropped by Maclin. There was a little contact in there, but I'm not surprised there was no pass interference. Mizzou to punt. Ggh.

11:52 - Harry half-shanks the punt, but it gets a good roll, and KU will start around its own 35.

11:56 - Short run by Jake Sharp on first down...Mizzou has passed its first couple of tests against the run.

11:57 - After a short pass, it's 3rd-and-3 for KU from their 39...which they convert with another short pass. Dink and dunk for KU so far.

11:58 - Two more well-defended runs, and it's 3rd-and-9. PASSING DOWN!

11:59 - Reesing finds Briscoe...looked about a half-yard short, but he got a <i>very</i> generous spot. First down, KU. Coverage was decent at first, but there was no pass rush and Reesing found an open guy.

11:59 - Two nice runs by Sharp gives KU another first down. The grind-it-out style I predicted is working so far...but we'll see if they can keep this up for more than a quarter.

12:01 - Third-and-3 from the MU 27...and yet another by-the-skin-of-their-teeth first down. This won't last. Just continue not giving up the deep ball, and the dinky stuff will begin to fail.

12:02 - Timeout, KU.

12:06 - And we're back...KU runs the option for the third or fourth time this game, and it's failed to generate more than about three yards at a time. Sets up a 3rd-and-4.

12:07 - Six-yard gain on 3rd-and-4. Dink and dunk, dink and dunk. First-and-goal.

12:08 - Another short pass to Meier...he has like three catches for 10 yards. Second-and-goal.

12:09 - Great coverage once again, and Reesing forces a pass into the endzone...and it's picked off by Kenji Jackson! That's why it's hard to dink-and-dunk all the way down the field. Eventually you have to make a play, and sometimes you force it.

12:10 - Two attempted passes to Andrew Jones, two incompletions. Neither were really Jones' fault, but it does beg the question...where's Chase Coffman?

12:11 - Third-and-10 for Mizzou from their 9...Daniel finds a hole and runs for about 50 yards...and then is stripped by Darrell Stuckey. KU recovers. That was a really creative way to end up basically punting.

12:12 - Nice intermediate pass to Dexton Fields for a first down. First pass to travel more than about 7 yards in the air.

12:15 - First down from the Mizzou 34...and KU throws about its 17th sideline pass. This one goes for about 7.

12:15 - Poor tackling. Reesing was hemmed in in the backfield, but escapes for a first down. I'm going to keep preaching the "dink and dunk eventually won't work" thing, but this is definitely annoying.

12:16 - End of 1st quarter. I guess it could be a lot worse than 3-0 right now, so that's...something.

Second Quarter

12:20 - And we're back...first down from the Mizzou 21...pass to Briscoe for the first down. The deep routes were covered, but Briscoe was underneath with room to run.

12:21 - TD, Briscoe on a bubble screen. Dink, dunk, dink, dunk, TD. 10-0.

12:24 - Kickoff time...the bounceback starts here, right? Pooch kick is fielded by Jimmy Jackson, and Mizzou will start near its 40.

12:25 - First down to Tommy Saunders!

12:26 - Bubble screen to Jeremy Maclin who shoots downfield as if out of a cannon...first down Mizzou at the KU 22!

12:27 - Man oh man, Derrick Washington is so patient. It looked like he was pinned in in the backfield, but he put on the brakes, everybody went running by, and he got up field. First-and-goal from the 8.

12:28 - False start. First-and-goal from the 13. Lapham: "You do not want to take redzone penalties." True, but you don't want to take ANY penalties, do you?

12:29 - Washington makes up the penalty yardage and a couple more. Second-and-goal from the 7.

12:29 - Daniel does a FANTASTIC job of avoiding a pass rusher and gets into the open field...and then slips and falls at the 5. Stupid turf.

12:30 - Third-and-goal...Coffman in the game...and it goes to Coffman for the TD! Nunchuks all around! 10-7!

12:33 - That was a nice drive. Washington got his bearings and looked great, and we figured out how to get Maclin open in space.

12:34 - The announcer just pronounced Andrew Gachkar "Gacker". GACK! KU starts the series at the 31...I thought I saw a flag on the kick return, but I guess not.

12:35 - MU gets impatient and blitzes...and Reesing finds Briscoe deep. KU inside Mizzou's 35.

12:36 - Another blitz causes a bad pass, but Briscoe leaps up and snags it for an 8-yard gain. Third-and-4.

12:37 - Sulak gets to Reesing (while being held)! W00t! Forces a 4th-and-15, and KU will punt.

12:38 - Nice punt. Mizzou will start at the 1.

12:42 - Wow...Daniel play-faked in the endzone and nobody bit...intentional grounding. Safety. 12-7. That's a special teams safety right there.

12:45 - Free kick by Mizzou. Briscoe slides between blockers, and KU will start at about their 45. Hate that guy.

12:46 - Third-and-8 after another screen to Briscoe. Reesing avoids Ziggy Hood and fires one to Meier for a nice gain. KU inside Mizzou's 45.

12:48 - Quickly, it's another third down...this time 3rd-and-3. Dink, dunk, dink, dunk.

12:49 - Complete to Meier for 2 yards. Reesing got sooooooo lucky. He was pressured and fluttered one up there, but Meier came down with it.

12:50 - Fourth-and-1, and Reesing sneaks for just enough. Dink, dunk, dink, dunk.

12:50 - Dave Lapham: "Reesing should wear a capital C for 'competitive' on his chest. He does whatever it takes. Yes he does. He just threw a stupid pass and almost paid for it, then got a 1-yard gain on a QB sneak. COMPETITIVE.

12:52 - Third-and-2 from the Mizzou 27. MASSIVE coverage breakdown by Mizzou, and Dexton Fields is wide open in the endzone. Not sure how that happened, but whatever. 19-7. 1:54 left in the first half.

12:54 - Kickoff out of bounds, and Mizzou will start at the 40. Whatchu got, Chase Daniel?

12:55 - Deep out to Maclin, and Stuckey almost picked another one off...sheesh. Second down.

12:55 - Daniel finds the Flying Nunchuk for a first down. Coffman is limping big-time.

12:56 - Third-and-7 from the KU 45. Coffman is back in, but he's majorly hobbled. Daniel scrambles for a first down at the 32. Dude's almost got 100 yards rushing today.

12:57 - Saunders for 8 yards, out of bounds. 0:42 left.

12:58 - Sack by James Holt. Timeout. 0:35 left.

12:59 - 3rd-and-8 from the 30...nobody open, and Daniel has to throw it away. Almost superhuman coverage by KU so far in this game.

1:00 - Wolfert to try a 47-yarder...perfect. Of course it is. 19-10.

1:02 - Short kick, and KU will start at their 36. 0:18 left. They can get a couple plays off.

1:02 - Or not. Reesing kneels the ball. Halftime.

1:03 - I'll say this much: Mizzou can clearly come back and win this game, but KU's defense is playing better than I've seen them play this year, so we'll have to earn it. They haven't rushed the ball very well, though, so that does open the door for Mizzou if they can find an offensive rhythm.

1:06 - Oh yeah, and nothing would make me happier than if Mizzou came out in all-blacks after halftime. Shed the gold.

---

1:16 - Man...usually I find something to occupy myself during halftime. Instead, I'm just sitting here, stewing, and watching Georgia-Georgia Tech. Soooooooo ready for the second half to start.

Third quarter

1:23 - Alright, we're back (finally). The gold jerseys are still on. Boo.

1:24 - Briscoe returns the kickoff to the KU 25. I'll take that.

1:25 - Play action deep ball (great play call) is inaccurate and incomplete to Briscoe.

1:26 - Third-and-6 after a short pass...GREAT blocking buys Reesing time, and he eventually finds Johnathan Wilson for a first down. Lapham: "Reesing: Frank Tarkenton Jr." Ugh.

(Though I will say...that was a helluva play by Reesing. Just don't tell anybody I said that.)

1:27 - ARGH...William Moore baited Reesing into a pick, but dropped it. It's obvious to say this, but...he wouldn't have dropped that last year.

1:28 - 3rd-and-12 for KU...you HAVE to stop them here. Have to have to have to have to.

1:28 - Timeout, Reesing.

1:30 - Alright, here we go...3rd-and-12...Reesing finds Briscoe wide-open for a big gain. Burned Carl Gettis. Ugh. They've been a step ahead of us all game. I haven't seen Reesing play this well since the first half against OU.

1:32 - 3rd-and-2 after a decent pass to Fields. They never get a first down in a play or two...but they always get it on the third play.

1:33 - ...reverse jinx doesn't work. Reesing with the first down on a keeper. First down at the Mizzou 18.

1:34 - TD, Jake Sharp. Defense wore out, and Sharp went in untouched. Trouble brewing. 26-10. This must be how KU fans felt when we played way over our heads every year at Hearnes in the '90s.

1:37 - On an entirely unrelated note, here in OKC I just saw a commercial for an Oklahoma City Blazers vs New Mexico Scorpions minor league hockey game. Minor league hockey in New Mexico. It's a strange world we live in.

1:38 - Maclin upended by the kicker after a decent return. Mizzou will start at their 44. Dave Lapham is almost unbearable right now.

1:39 - Nice designed run by Chase Daniel, and Mizzou's inside the KU 40. Good. I was worried they'd abandon the run, but establishing the running game is EXACTLY what they want to do right now.

1:39 - Hmm...oopty-oop formation by Mizzou results in a very predictable backwards pass to Chase Patton...who fumbles. Elvis Fisher recovers after a 10-yard loss. That is exactly the opposite of establishing the running game.

1:41 - Third-and-12 after the disastrous oopty-oop...Daniel scrambles and finds Coffman at the first down marker. Love that guy.

1:42 - Underneath pass to Maclin, and he jogs untouched for a TD! Whew. 26-16, PAT pending.

1:42 - KU calls timeout as Mizzou is about to attempt an ill-advised 2-point conversion.

1:46 - We're back, and the ill-advised 2-point conversion is incomplete. 26-16. Hate that call.

1:47 - Jake Sharp is lit up on first down. If I'm KU, I abandon the run. Short passing works waaaaaay better for them.

1:48 - Jaron Baston with a HUGE deflection and interception! MOMENTUM! Let's go...

1:50 - TD, Tommy Saunders!!! MOMENTUM! 26-23!!

1:52 - And Dezmon Briscoe is the dagger man for KU. Huge return out past midfield...

1:53 - Reesing on the keeper...he's taken a LOT of hard hits tonight.

1:53 - No room for Sharp, and it's 3rd-and-11 for KU. This could shift the momentum right back to KU with a conversion here...

1:54 - Incomplete pass to Dexton Fields, but there was a hold anyway. KU to punt!

1:55 - Another rugby kick with a nice roll, and Mizzou will start at their 13. Six minutes left in Q3.

1:56 - Nice defense by KU, and it's 3rd-and-10.

1:57 - Pass to Maclin for 13 yards. First down Mizzou!

1:58 - More good defense, and it's 3rd-and-10 again. Really hard to keep converting these.

1:59 - My reverse jinx failed again...pass to Maclin, but he's shy of the first down. Mizzou to punt.

2:00 - ARGH!!! Mizzou faked the punt, and Jake Sharp had the first down on the ground...only Mizzou didn't get the snap off in time. Delay of game. Mizzou to REALLY punt this time...and it rolls to the KU 26.

2:02 - Good lord, no commercial breaks! I didn't even have time to pee! Holding penalty on KU. 1st-and-20.

2:03 - GREAT play call and blocking on a shovel pass...Sulak was left unabated to Reesing, who flipped to Sharp for 18 yards.

2:04 - 3rd-and-2 from the KU 33...slant pass incomplete to Briscoe! KU to punt...but first, Castine Bridges is hurt.

2:05 - Good god...Rojas punts it over Maclin's head, and it's downed near the Mizzou 10. Kansas MVP: Alonso Rojas.

2:06 - Maclin falls down in his route, and it's incomplete. I HATE the Arrowhead turf.

2:07 - After 5 yards by Derrick Washington, it'll be 3rd-and-5 as Q4 begins.

Fourth Quarter

2:11 - Here we go, 3rd-and-5...KU blitzes, and Chase dumps it to Maclin for the first down. Eighty yards to go.

2:12 - Reverse to Maclin, who is ALMOST eaten up in the backfield...but he escapes and busts loose...first down at the MU 47.

2:13 - ARGH! Deep ball to an open Saunders, but he drops it as he's hit. Saunders! Drops it! Has NOT been our day to this point...

2:14 - Ugh...Stuckey picks off another one. Don't know when this guy turned into Ed Reed, but...yeah.

2:15 - Quickly, it's 3rd-and-3 for KU. Reesing scrambles for 4 yards and gets ROCKED by Brock Christopher. Once again, they get a first down by the skin of their teeth.

2:16 - Reesing gets rocked again by Sulak as he throws, and it's 3rd-and-10. Care to make another stop, guys?

2:18 - Incomplete to Meier! KU to punt again...but the punt has been KU's biggest weapon today. I'm sure we'll get pinned deep again.

2:18 - Actually, this rugby kick wasn't all that great. Mizzou will start outside of their own redzone, which is a nice change.

2:21 - Two touches for Washington, and Mizzou's to the 35.

2:23 - Two touches for Maclin, and Mizzou's to the 48.

2:24 - First down, Maclin! Mizzou to the KU 39, and GOD I WISH DAVE LAPHAM WOULD JUST SHUT UP. HE JUST KEEPS TALKING.

2:25 - Washington bulls forward to the 25!

2:26 - Coffman with a drop...he and Saunders have both dropped balls in this quarter.

2:26 - Third-and-10...it would be a 44-yarder right now...and Chase calls timeout with 7:47 left. Have I mentioned just how thrilled I am that Mizzou has already clinched the North?

2:30 - WOW, WHAT A CATCH BY MACLIN! First down, Mizzou, but both Maclin AND the guy who hit him are still down. They both landed awkwardly. Maclin either hurt his hip or got the wind knocked out of him. Looks like he's limping, so...hip. First down from the 15...no Maclin, no Coffman. Hand to Washington then!

2:32 - Or bring back Coffman for a 9-yard gain! Mizzou to the 6.

2:33 - Screen to The Flying Limping Nunchuk for a BALLSY touchdown!! 30-26, with 6:52 left! Hoo boy...buckle up...

2:35 - And the sleet has picked up...

2:36 - Kick to Briscoe, who once again busts a nice return. Dude is all balls. KU will start at the 50, but Briscoe is at least shaken up...so that's something...

2:37 - First down, Dexton Fields. KU to MU's 40.

2:38 - Good god, Jim Knox has had so much work done on his face.

2:39 - Reesing is stripped by Sulak...KU recovers, but that was HORRIBLE officiating. They were all just looking at each other. Nobody knew if it was a fumble or forward pass, nobody blew a whistle, nothing. Turns out it was indeed a fumble, and KU did indeed recover, but...make a call!

2:40 - Third-and-11 for KU...Reesing finds Marcus Herford inside the 10. Oy. Horrible zone defense by Carl Gettis.

2:40 - TD, Meier. But at least they scored fast. 4:26 left. 33-30.

2:44 - I shouldn't share this, but I do not at ALL feel good about this drive.

2:45 - Tremane Vaughns with a decent little return...but that verifies that Maclin is unavailable. Mizzou to start at their 27.

2:45 - First down, Danario. First catch of the game for him. Mizzou to the MU 40.

2:45 - Maclin back on the field...Washington slips, and the pass bounces off his helmet incomplete. I hate this turf so much.

2:46 - Pass to Coffman for 8 yards. Third-and-2. Shoot me.

2:46 - Daniel on the keeper...breaks into the open field. Just as I start to scream "HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL", he puts two hands on the ball and gets to the KU 31.

2:47 - Maclin breaks a tackle and breaks free to the 17! FG range! 2:30 left AND PLEASE GOD MAKE DAVE LAPHAM SHUT THE HELL UP!

2:48 - Pass is deflected, but caught by Perry at the 6! First-and-goal...2:00 left...

2:49 - TD, Derrick Washington! Two guys got their hands on him, and it didn't matter. 34-30! 1:50 left, and at least KU has to score a touchdown.

2:50 - Briscoe's back to return the kick. You almost have to kick to him because you don't want to pooch it and hand them the ball at the 40. Kick is short, but Briscoe is wrapped up at the 30. Here we go...

2:51 - Pass complete for 10 yards to Sharp, who is crushed by Carl Gettis. KU to their 45.

2:52 - Shovel pass is eaten up and dropped by Sharp. 1:30 left. That actually might have been complete and fumbled by Sharp...he would have recovered it, but it would have taken 20 seconds off the clock.

2:52 - Pass to Meier for 10, out of bounds. 1:24 left.

2:53 - Underneath pass to Meier for 7...clock ticking...

2:53 - Reesing fakes out two pass rushers and gets them up in the air, then finds Meier for another first down to the MU 28. They're going to review this, but he caught it. 0:51 left. Clock is really not a factor now...it's just a matter of holding KU to a FG.

2:55 - Review says: complete. Have I mentioned that I'm glad we've already clinched the North?

2:55 - Five yards to Meier out of bounds. 0:44 left. Timeout, Mizzou, and I've finally had to hit mute on Dave Lapham. Good god this guy won't stop talking.

2:57 - A ha! Mizzou was actually challenging the call...Meier's knee was down when he caught the ball, meaning he didn't get out of bounds. So...what happens now? Meier was definitively down, and another 15 seconds would have run off the clock (unless KU called timeout). But...we're going to be screwed here because KU will just line up and run another play now.

2:59 - Back to the game...2nd-and-7 from the MU 27...deep ball to Briscoe, and Gettis ALMOST picked it off.

3:00 - 3rd-and-7...incomplete to Briscoe. Timeout.

3:01 - Here we go. Oy. Reesing scrambles...and finds Meier deep for the TD. Oy...we blitzed and didn't get there. I wouldn't have blitzed...especially since it ended up Meier-on-Justin Garrett one-on-one. 40-37 KU.

3:04 - Maclin with a nice return to the MU 40. 0:19 left. Mizzou needs to get at least 25 yards for Wolfert.

2:04 - Complete to Perry for a big gain! Daniel spikes the ball with 0:10 left...Mizzou at the KU 37.

3:05 - Out route dropped by Alexander. 0:05 left.

3:06 - Wolfert out to try a game-tying 55-yarder in the snow. Partially blocked by KU. Ballgame. They earned it.

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

2008-11-28T16:03:46Z

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
68.8%		% Close	52.5%
49.7%	50.3%	Field Position %	55.1%	44.9%
71.3%	65.9%	Leverage %	76.8%	68.5%

		Total
795	780	Plays	762	826
313.43	292.05	EqPts	392.41	265.57
47.6%	41.8%	Success Rate	56.8%	42.1%
0.39	0.37	PPP	0.51	0.32
0.870	0.792	S&P	1.083	0.743

		Close Games
528	555	Plays	453.	381
218.59	212.79	EqPts	228.79	119.84
47.9%	43.1%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.8%
0.41	0.38	PPP	0.51	0.31
0.893	0.814	S&P	1.081	0.742

		Rushing
115.92	105.62	EqPts	145.56	91.46
49.4%	39.4%	Success Rate	52.0%	40.6%
0.33	0.33	PPP	0.46	0.25
0.820	0.728	S&P	0.977	0.659
3.35	2.71	Line Yds/carry	3.13	2.73

		Passing
197.51	186.44	EqPts	246.84	174.12
46.0%	43.4%	Success Rate	60.3%	43.3%
0.45	0.40	PPP	0.56	0.38
0.910	0.837	S&P	1.160	0.809
5.9%	4.3%	Sack Rate	2.2%	5.4%

		Non-Passing Downs
51.7%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	47.1%
0.38	0.37	PPP	0.55	0.32
0.895	0.831	S&P	1.162	0.794
5.3%	3.9%	Sack Rate	1.6%	4.1%
53.8%	50.4%	Run Rate	47.9%	52.8%

		Passing Downs
37.4%	33.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	31.6%
0.43	0.39	PPP	0.41	0.32
0.807	0.720	S&P	0.830	0.636
6.8%	4.8%	Sack Rate	3.6%	7.1%
23.4%	23.5%	Run Rate	23.5%	26.7%

		Turnovers
19	21	Total	17	19
43.19	61.28	Points Lost	48.11	45.63
46.04	50.30	Points Given	34.23	71.73
89.23	111.58	Total T/O Pts	82.34	117.36
+22.35	-22.35	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+35.02	-35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

The first thing I notice on this large box score is just how average KU has been in a lot of areas. I'm still living a bit off of the KU '07 aura, I guess. But whereas MU is +0.339 in close-game S&P, KU is only +0.078. When they've been beaten, more often than not, they've been drubbed.
That said, their running game really has improved recently. Jake Sharp is not necessarily a big-play threat, but he's quite solid, and KU's 3.35 line yards per carry are much better than I thought they'd manage at the beginning of the season. Also, KU's 49.4% success rate running the ball opens up an avenue of ball control success for them. Their big-play potential (i.e. PPP) is pretty crappy, but they can potentially move the chains a bit.
Meanwhile, Mizzou's running game has the big-play threat that KU's lacks. Their 0.46 PPP rushing is over one-third better than KU's. They've been outstanding at preventing the big rushing play as well. It's a huge advantage to MU if KU can't manage at least a few healthy chunks of yards on the ground.
Next window of opportunity for Mizzou: sack rates. KU allows a few too many, and MU is pretty decent at racking them up. If there is no big-play threat from the running game, Mizzou's rush ends (Stryker Sulak, Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter) could have Todd Reesing running for his life. Reesing's a crafty SOB, and he can create the occasional out-of-nothing play...but he can only do that so many times.
Both teams have managed positive turnover point differentials, and while Mizzou's is higher, it's only by about a point a game.

On to the situational stats...

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
		Q1
51.1%	44.4%	Success Rate	57.9%	46.9%
0.39	0.35	PPP	0.53	0.28
0.903	0.794	S&P	1.110	0.751

		Q2
46.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	59.0%	40.1%
0.39	0.33	PPP	0.51	0.27
0.858	0.732	S&P	1.100	0.673

		Q3
40.1%	41.5%	Success Rate	55.8%	41.6%
0.43	0.44	PPP	0.55	0.35
0.832	0.855	S&P	1.107	0.770

		Q4
51.5%	41.7%	Success Rate	53.9%	40.8%
0.37	0.38	PPP	0.47	0.38
0.882	0.792	S&P	1.004	0.784

		1st Downs
49.0%	43.7%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.9%
0.40	0.38	PPP	0.53	0.32
0.892	0.814	S&P	1.103	0.753

		2nd Downs
45.3%	39.2%	Success Rate	57.9%	40.6%
0.34	0.38	PPP	0.48	0.33
0.796	0.770	S&P	1.061	0.731

		3rd Downs
48.4%	41.1%	Success Rate	54.3%	41.1%
0.38	0.32	PPP	0.56	0.27
0.866	0.728	S&P	1.107	0.679

KU's offense gets progressively worse as the game advances (for the first three quarters, anyway). Their success rate falls from a solid 51.1% in Q1 to a 46.4% in Q2, and to a 40.1% in Q3. Keep this in mind. As I said above, KU's running game has some grind-it-out potential, but without the big play it's only a matter of time before grind-it-out stops working. Mizzou's bend-don't-break defense will get a stop more often than not--you can't expect an 18-play drive. And as they slowly put the clamps on the run, the passing yards will get harder to come by as well.
Meanwhile, the KU defense gets better as a half progresses. They're better in Q2 than Q1 and better in Q4 than Q3. Overall, Q3 is their weakest quarter.
KU's good at coming up with 3rd-down stops, though, so first-down yardage could be key for Mizzou.
Sheesh. Mizzou's offensive numbers are staggeringly consistent down-to-down and quarter-to-quarter. That's ridiculous.
It appears that the best time for KU to strike will be in Q1. Mizzou doesn't give up big plays, but they allow a pretty healthy success rate. Expect KU to have some success early on, but as long as Mizzou doesn't allow an easy score or two early, they should have a strong window opportunity to seize the game in Q2 and Q3.

'+' Rankings

This is just a quick refresher from Monday's BTBS Rankings/Projections post. The following numbers are conference-only stats.

KU & MU '+' figures and conference ranking
Category	KU Off.	KU Def.	MU Off.	MU Def.
Success Rates+	103.3 (#6)	103.8 (#5)	117.3 (#2)	102.2 (#6)
PPP+	95.2 (#7)	100.0 (#8)	115.5 (#5)	109.3 (#5)
S&P+	99.2 (#7)	102.0 (#9)	116.5 (#2)	105.4 (#3)
Rushing S&P+	106.0 (#5)	104.4 (#7)	116.2 (#1)	111.8 (#2)
Passing S&P+	94.4 (#7)	101.5 (#7)	113.7 (#5)	101.1 (#8)
Close-Game S&P+	102.2 (#7)	102.9 (#6)	109.1 (#5)	109.1 (#3)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+	100.1 (#7)	103.6 (#6)	118.0 (#1)	107.1 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+	96.4 (#8)	97.2 (#8)	105.2 (#6)	96.9 (#9)
Redzone S&P+	113.4 (#2)	97.8 (#8)	107.7 (#5)	108.5 (#4)

Keep KU of the redzone, as they're pretty automatic once they get that far. Otherwise, as far as explosive Big 12 offenses go, they're pretty mediocre across the board.
The one advantage they have in comparison to Mizzou's defensive numbers comes in the Success Rate figures. As I mentioned earlier, they probably won't be able to generate many huge plays, but they can potentially work the clock and keep the Mizzou offense off the field somewhat.
Meanwhile, the line of thought from Mizzou's players and coaches this week has been that, while KU's defensive numbers aren't amazing, that has to do with all the good offenses they've played against. That's partially true, but as the '+' numbers suggest, this is still an average to above-average defense at best. And like the offense, they're not particularly great at any one thing.

Key Players: Kansas

RB Jake Sharp

He's hurt, but he's still by far KU's best and most consistent back, particularly between the tackles. If he can't go, the onus falls onto disappointing JUCO transfer Jocques Crawford, and I think that spells doom for KU. If KU's going to win, it's because Sharp was able to get some tough yards and take the pressure off of Todd Reesing.

WR Kerry Meier

He's also hurt. But here's the deal: a team has to have a secondary receiving threat to move the ball on Mizzou. Dezmon Briscoe is outstanding, and he'll probably get some yards, but he'll be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment™, and somebody else will have to step up on key plays. Meier has 73 catches and Briscoe has 69; after those two, the production falls considerably to Johnathan Wilson (38 catches). Wilson could be something of a secret weapon, but if KU's going to win, chances are it's because Meier had 4-5 third-down catches.

LB James Holt

While KU's defense hasn't performed as well as it did last year overall, and while fellow LBs Joe Mortensen and Mike Rivera have been solid but not spectacular, James Holt's play has been outstanding. He leads KU with 14.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and six forced fumbles. He plays well in pass coverage, he plays well close to the line, he blitzes well, and he was also the best defensive player on the field the last time Mizzou and Kansas played at Arrowhead. If KU's going to win, it's because they were coming up with third-down stops...and Holt was probably the guy making them.

K Jacob Branstetter

Last year at Arrowhead, KU kicker Scott Webb missed two first-half FGs and prevented the Jayhawks from getting any momentum whatsoever until the the scoring margin was too big to make up. He makes those two kicks, and it's a completely different ballgame down the stretch. Branstetter has been fine in the kicking game this year, but he hasn't been asked to do much--he's just 2-for-4 in conference play. If KU's going to win, Branstetter will not be able to take points off the board with shaky play.

Even if Branstetter isn't asked to do much, this spot on the Key Players list signifies special teams as a whole--if Marcus Herford can bust a big return, or if Branstetter makes a big kick, or if anything really good happens to KU in the special teams game, the outlook of the game as a whole could change instantly.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

In two starts against Kansas, Chase Daniel is 66-for-87 (76%) for 719 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. Insane. From a completions and yards perspective, Daniel is even better this year than he was in 2006 or 2007, so in theory that means his numbers will be better this year, right?

Well, if they are, KU will get absolutely smoked. Kansas would like nothing more than to finally get to Daniel, and they better figure out how...fast.

FS William Moore

Willy Mo finally began playing like Willy Mo 2007 two weeks ago in Ames. No other player on Mizzou's defense can demoralize an opposing offense in a millisecond like Moore, and honestly...he's always the key player on the Mizzou defense.

LB Brock Christopher, DTs Ziggy Hood & Jaron Baston

While KU has somewhat forgotten how to pass block in recent weeks, their run blocking has gotten much better in conference play. Against OU, they had a ton of success running the ball because OU had a new middle linebacker, and the interior of KU's line took advantage. If the middle triangle of Mizzou's defense--Christopher, Hood, Baston--thrives, the game's over. Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford don't have the jets to consistently succeed running outside. They're going to have to be able to move the chains running between the tackles, and if they can't, it's open season on Todd Reesing.

William Clarke Quantrill

Quite simply, the main reason KU has a shot to win this game is because it's the Border War, and weird things happen. Just ask Brad Smith. Or Paul Pierce. Mizzou players and coaches have done a very convincing job this week of saying the right things--KU has a great team, this is a big game, we're not focused on the Big 12 title game, etc. Mizzou has the better team in this game, and if they come out with Quantrill fire to match KU's Jennison rage, they win this game.

Summary & Prediction

Things to pay attention to early in Saturday's game: 1) if KU is struggling to create holes for Jake Sharp, that's very bad for KU; 2) if KU can't generate any Q1 offense (like last year), that's very bad for KU; 3) if MU is only getting 2-4 yards on first down instead of 5-7, that's potentially bad for MU; 4) if Chase Daniel isn't knocked off his feet in Q1 (not even by a sack--just by any pressure of any kind), it's very bad for KU.

Oh yeah, and 5) if Jeremy Maclin is running free in the KU secondary (or on kick returns), it's very very bad for KU.

My Monday BTBS projections predicted a 34-25 win for Mizzou. That sounds about right. Mizzou has a special teams advantage, plus the slightest of edges in turnover margin. My gut is saying this will be about a 38-17 win for Mizzou. So in the end, we'll say that after an even Q1, Mizzou makes a move some time in Q2 and Q3 and withstands the Reesing Surge in Q4. Mizzou 35, Kansas 21.

If KU is able to work the clock and come up with some third-down stops, then this game can shift into "Rivalry Game--throw out the records/stats" mode, which would be very bad for Mizzou. But if stats and talent matter, Mizzou has a healthy edge. There are a lot more avenues to success for Missouri, and in the end they will likely win comfortably.

Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #5)

2008-11-28T13:00:08Z

Naturally, Armageddon at Arrowhead I.

Thanksgiving may be over, but hopefully you left some extra room for another feast... Let's play...

2008-11-28T05:10:37Z

Thanksgiving may be over, but hopefully you left some extra room for another feast...

Let's play some football.

A Thanksgiving Special with rptgwb...

2008-11-27T15:00:08Z

It's unequivocally my favorite holiday of the year, and it's one where I'd like to take this opportunity to wish every single RMN reader a happy, healthy and prosperous Thanksgiving.

In the spirit of giving thanks, here's a list of things I'm thankful for, dating back to last Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for...

... the chance to bear hug everyone in my family as Todd Reesing came up with the Arrowhead Stadium endzone stuck in his facemask.

... The chance to attend the world's greatest journalism school while cheering for the nation's No. 1 football team, even though the duration at No. 1 was so brief.

... A bittersweet thanks to the BCS for screwing Mizzou over, allowing me the opportunity to host several great friends for the Cotton Bowl in my hometown.

... Watching the Mizzou defense absolutely shutout Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, giving Tony Temple the chance to be the best back on the Cotton Bowl field that morning.

... William Moore, Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman, Ziggy Hood and Stryker Sulak all opting to return for 2008.

... the chance to respond "Wait, what?!?" every time I heard score updates of Mizzou basketball's whooping of Texas at Mizzou Arena last January.

... the chance to attend my first MU/KU basketball game, score not withstanding.

... the outpouring of support from Mizzou fans at the news of Larry Smith's passing.

... Mike Anderson suspending nearly his entire senior class following the incident at Athena.

... Mizzou nearly beating Nebraska with only seven players, the most likable roster the team fielded all year.

... Watching J.T. Tiller lead Mizzou to an upset of Michael Beasley and K-State that no one saw coming.

Rest of the list after the jump

... the honor of having Rock M be nominated for a 2007 College Football Blogger Award for Best Big 12 Blog

... the very legit Chase Daniel vs. Ben Askren Mizzou 25 Final.

... the far less legit and far more contested Mizzou 25 Coaches Final, which I still find shady.

... the chance to watch Aarow Crow pitch in person, as well as see Mizzou baseball climb as high as No. 2.

... watching online scoreboards break as Mizzou and Texas' baseball teams played to a 31-12 MU win at a howling and freezing Taylor Stadium.

... attending a freezing cold Black and Gold football game even though I could have watched it on ESPNU.

... the chance to see Martin Rucker and Will Franklin's names on NFL merchandise.

... watching the Rabble! Rabble! unfold between bloggers and Buzz Bissinger.

... following as Mizzou softball won its regional.

... the greatness that was the launching of SB Nation 2.0, the platform you know and love today.

... an entire summer of scratching and clawing for content (Everyone remember "Buffalo Week" around these parts?!?).

... the wonderful thoughts and prayers shared on our site upon word of the passing of Mizzou photographer and fan Sarah Becking.

... seeing Mizzou athletes like Askren and Christian Cantwell at the Beijing Olympics.

... Sean Weatherspoon's grinding celebration and his "give me the damn ball" pick six against Illinois.

... seeing Brock Christopher in No. 25 against SEMO.

... having the Mizzou football players come sing "Fight Tigers" in front of the Tiger's Lair after destroying Nevada in horrible weather.

... a football team that raised expectations so high that a 42-21 win over Buffalo was a major disappointment to many.

... the discovery that Robert Griffin would henceforth be known as "Hot Tub."

... everything that happened in Lincoln on Oct. 4, from Maclin's catch and run to Brock's pick six to Danario's touchdown catch to the greatest postgame thread ever.

... the chance to celebrate the first birthday of Rock M Nation.

... every Chase Coffman hurdle or catch we've seen this year.

... the chance to salute this senior class at Faurot Field, and the chance to explode when Chase Patton threw his first career TD pass in his last home game.

... celebrating with random people at the Hearnes Center, as we crowded around my SlingBox on press row as Bryan Blitz's women's soccer team brought the Big 12 title to Columbia.

... every chance I've had to work with Wayne Kreklow and Mike Anderson this year, two genuinely great, wonderful people.

... the chance to watch this Mizzou volleyball team grow, including the outstanding play of Caitlyn Vann, the redemption of Lauren Nuckolls, and the cannon attached to Julianna Klein's arm.

... the revelation that I (along with the rest of campus) was actually genuinely excited for basketball season this year.

... the opportunity to send my deepest thanks to all my friends here at Rock M Nation. I hope you and your families have a wonderful holiday, and here's to hoping for another great year in store between now and next Thanksgiving.

Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #4)

2008-11-27T13:00:06Z

Mizzou vs Kansas, 2006

Mizzou Basketball: Beyond the Box Score?

2008-11-26T17:34:23Z

That's right...in the absence of a football game to review from last weekend (I could just review OU-TT instead, but...I think you know what the stats say about that one), I'm going to dip my toe back into basketball stats...see what Mizzou's stats say about the team's prospects after five games...

With all the stats here, there is obviously a 'strength of schedule' qualifier. 60% of Mizzou's games thus far have been against complete and total cupcakes (Prairie View A&M, Chattanooga, THE STAGS OF FAIRFIELD). But the other two games have been against a) a team that was ranked at the time (but isn't as good as their then-ranking) and b) a team that became ranked the week after they played (and has proven quite a bit now). In other words, real teams.But all in all, the stats are obviously going to be inflated a bit, so keep that in mind.

Offense

For the season, Mizzou's averaging 86.0 PPG on 47% shooting. Against the two "real" teams on the schedule, that's 77.0 PPG on 49% shooting. Taking DeMarre Carroll's ridiculously hot shooting against USC out of the equation, those numbers obviously go down quite a bit. We're obviously still dealing with small sample size here, but there is a WIDE range of FG %'s on this team right now.

Mizzou FG% and Points Per Shot
	All Games			vs XU, USC
Player	FG%	PPS	PPG	FG%	PPS	PPG
DeMarre Carroll	61.2	1.51	20.2	60.0	1.53	23.0
Leo Lyons	56.4	1.56	17.2	52.6	1.47	14.0
Matt Lawrence	37.8	1.14	8.4	20.0	0.60	4.5
J.T. Tiller	48.4	1.32	8.2	52.6	1.59	13.5
Marcus Denmon	34.4	0.97	6.2	25.0	0.75	3.0
Miguel Paul	41.7	1.17	5.6	42.9	1.00	3.5
Kim English	29.0	0.84	5.2	75.0	1.50	3.0
Keith Ramsey	57.1	1.50	4.2	50.0	1.38	5.5
Justin Safford	63.6	1.73	3.8	66.7	2.00	3.0
Zaire Taylor	30.0	0.95	3.8	50.0	1.33	4.0
ALL	47.0	1.28	86.0	48.7	1.32	77.0

Just think how good those numbers could be if we hadn't shot only 54% from the free-throw line against USC and XU! DeMarre and Leo would both be up toward 1.75 points per shot.

Overall, Mizzou is averaging 1.17 points per possession right now, 1.15 in the two real games. As a reference point...

Mizzou Points Per Possession, recent history

2007-08: 1.07
2006-07: 1.06
2005-06: 0.99
2004-05: 0.99
2003-04: 1.08

The last time Mizzou averaged as much as 1.10 points per possession was 1989-90, and we will obviously see this number fall as the season progresses. It is, however, at least encouraging to see the per-possession numbers that high against the two real teams, especially considering that a) Xavier's a good defensive team, and b) we shot FTs like crap.

Now, because I'm me, we're going to look at another figure that I enjoy: Net Equivalent Points (NEP). Really, it's the basketball version of the EqPts figure I love for my BTBS pieces in football. It's an old-school Tigerboard measurement that I've been using for all the basketball data I can find. The idea is simple enough: combine all basketball stats--rebounds, assists, turnovers, missed shots, etc.--into a useful point value. Simple enough, right?

Just FYI: I've made some adjustments to the formula in the Tigerboard link to more closely match actual points scored.

Mizzou Net Equivalent Points
	All Games		*vs XU, USC*
Player	NEP/Gm	NEP/Min	NEP/Gm	NEP/Min
DeMarre Carroll	23.9	0.85	24.5	0.73
Leo Lyons	18.6	0.79	13.4	0.54
Matt Lawrence	6.5	0.34	0.7	0.04
J.T. Tiller	11.9	0.55	20.9	0.87
Marcus Denmon	8.8	0.50	5.6	0.30
Miguel Paul	5.7	0.39	3.8	0.28
Kim English	2.8	0.23	0.5	0.04
Keith Ramsey	4.9	0.45	5.7	0.57
Justin Safford	3.8	0.30	3.6	0.30
Zaire Taylor	10.67	0.38	8.2	0.26
Laurence Bowers	2.6	0.29	N/A	N/A
Steve Moore	-0.4	-0.09	N/A	N/A

We'll return to this measure in a bit.

Defense

Let's use the same numbers to look at the defense.

PPS = Points Per Shot
PPP = Points Per Possession
PPG = Points Per Game

Opponents' offensive numbers
Season	FG%	PPS	PPP	PPG
2008-09 (USC, XU)	46.9	1.53	1.05	73.5
2008-09 (all)	43.1	1.29	0.94	69.2
2007-08	43.8	1.27	1.00	72.4
2006-07	43.7	1.29	0.99	71.9
2005-06	45.8	1.25	1.06	70.4
2004-05	43.7	1.24	1.02	66.3
2003-04	44.0	1.27	1.06	72.6
2002-03	40.8	1.12	0.98	67.7
2001-02	44.7	1.23	1.03	72.5
2000-01	43.2	1.21	1.01	72.8
1999-00	45.0	1.24	0.98	69.9

Being that we aim for so many steals and turnovers, the PPP number is probably the best indicator for Mizzou success, and while the overall 0.94 number is great, the 1.05 against real teams is not. Then again, we always play a mixture of cupcakes and real teams, so over the course of the season, this number will probably end up close to the 1.00 that seems to be our Mike Anderson average. Combined with offensive progression, though, that's a net gain.

Rebounding

In the recently-released College Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009, there was an interesting look at rebounding. It said that on average, there's an offensive rebound 32% of the time on 3-pointers, 37% of the time on 2-pointers (surprising to me that offenses don't rebound 3-pointers more), and 18% of the time on free throws. So looking at the types of missed shots can give you and idea of how many rebounds a team should have expected to have.

Mizzou Offensive Rebounding vs Expected Rebounding
	All Opponents		vs XU, USC
Team	Exp. Off. Reb.	Off. Reb.	Exp. Off. Reb.	Off. Reb.
Mizzou	72	82	25	25
Opponents	63	66	22	28

So against real teams, Mizzou is getting as many offensive rebounds as expected (and therefore opponents are getting as many defensive rebounds). Meanwhile, the difference comes where opponents are grabbing 27% more offensive rebounds than they should be (and therefore Mizzou is getting 27% fewer defensive rebounds). Lack of size and a bit of inexperience (though not really in the frontcourt) are playing against Mizzou here, but obviously so is style of play. Mizzou will never be an amazing rebounding team, but if they can get to where they're rebounding at the expected/typical level, that will be lovely.

On an individual basis, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons are both averaging 0.12 defensive rebounds per minute, which isn't bad...but it also isn't great. Linas Kleiza averaged 0.17 his sophomore year, and Arthur Johnson never averaged below 0.15 (nor did Travon Bryant). Marcus Denmon is averaging a very encouraging and non-guardlike 0.11 against real teams, but otherwise this is clearly where the main deficiency lies. The big men need to do more big man stuff on the defensive side of the ball.

Meanwhile, Keith Ramsey is a (warning: small sample size) offensive rebounding machine at 0.17 per minute.

Passing

Let's play with assist and turnovers, shall we? I realize turnovers don't perfectly equate to passing, but here's where we're looking at them.

Here are the current Mizzou leaders in Assists Per Minute:

Zaire Taylor 0.16 (0.11 against real teams)
JT Tiller 0.15 (0.17)
Marcus Denmon 0.13 (0.08)
Miguel Paul 0.12 (0.11)
Laurence Bowers 0.11 (N/A)
DeMarre Carroll 0.09 (0.06)
Leo Lyons 0.09 (0.12!)
Justin Safford 0.09 (0.08)
Keith Ramsey 0.09 (0.10)
Kim English 0.07 (0.08)

Honestly, those are some well-rounded assist totals. Team passing has improved so far this year. And Leo has done an outstanding job of finding open teammates against real teams. He hasn't been as aggressive with his shot, but he's also probably the #1 weapon teams gameplan for--he's doing a good job of taking what the defense gives him.

Mizzou is averaging 0.11 assists per minute overall and 0.10 against real teams. Here is your recent history:

Mizzou Assists Per Minute
2008-09 (versus real teams): 0.10
2007-08: 0.08
2006-07: 0.08
2005-06: 0.06
2004-05: 0.06

Last time Mizzou averaged 0.10 assists per minute for an entire season: 1989-90. Good company.

Meanwhile, turnover numbers are down as well. Mizzou is averaging just 0.06 turnovers per minute overall, 0.05 against real teams. Recent history?

Mizzou Turnovers Per Minute
2008-09 (vs real teams): 0.05
2007-08: 0.07
2006-07: 0.07
2005-06: 0.08
2004-05: 0.07
2003-04: 0.07

Last time Mizzou averaged under 0.07 turnovers per minute for an entire season: once again, 1989-90 (0.06). So...yeah, good start.

40 Minutes of Hell

First of all, I want to start this section by pointing out that JT Tiller is averaging 0.19 steals per minute against major teams and 0.14 per minute overall. In English, that means that Tiller is averaging a steal for every FIVE MINUTES of playing time. Just what kind of defensive roll is he on? I have data for every Mizzou season since 1980-81, and only one Tiger has ever averaged even 0.10 steals per minute (SPM) in at least 10.0 minutes of play per game: Reggie Smith in 1990-91 averaged 0.10. So while I'm sure Tiller's run of theft won't last at this level, he could end up being Mizzou's steals king by the end of next year. Just ridiculous defense by Tiller at this point, and it's leading to a lot of fast breaks and easy looks.

As far as the team as a whole, they are averaging 0.05 Steals Per Minute and forcing 0.10 Turnovers Per Minute thus far (0.06 SPM and 0.10 TOPM against XU & USC). Where does that stand in comparison to recent history?

Mizzou Defense
2007-08: 0.04 SPM, 0.08 opp. TOPM
2006-07: 0.05 SPM, 0.09 opp. TOPM
2005-06: 0.03 SPM, 0.07 opp. TOPM
2004-05: 0.03 SPM, 0.07 opp. TOPM
2003-04: 0.03 SPM, 0.06 opp. TOPM

So they're right at the average for the Mike Anderson Years so far (a bit better). On an individual basis, Tiller has been insane, but otherwise...

Returnees
DeMarre Carroll: 0.07 SPM, 0.05 in 07-08
Leo Lyons: 0.04 SPM, 0.03 in 07-08
Matt Lawrence: 0.02 SPM, 0.03 in 07-08
Justin Safford: 0.03 SPM, 0.04 in 07-08

Newbies
Zaire Taylor: 0.04 SPM (Stefhon Hannah in 07-08: 0.07)
Marcus Denmon: 0.06 SPM (Keon Lawrence in 07-08: 0.03)
Miguel Paul: 0.03 SPM (Jason Horton in 07-08: 0.05)
Kim English: 0.05 SPM (Marshall Brown in 07-08: 0.03)
Keith Ramsey: 0.02 SPM (Darryl Butterfield in 07-08: 0.05)

So if Denmon and English continue to steal minutes from Matt Lawrence, the thefts will go up.

Meanwhile, in other defensive numbers, Mizzou is blocking shots at the same rate as last year (1 every 20 minutes or so) and fouling at a slightly higher rate (0.11 per minute instead of last year's 0.10).

Aside from turnovers, obviously the other way to prevent points is to prevent good shooting, and...well, Mizzou hasn't done that just yet (again, XU and USC averaged 1.53 points per shot. Last year opponents averaged 1.27.).

Who Should Be Playing?

Back to the NEP numbers for this part. Thus far, Mike Anderson has done a pretty decent job of maximizing his team's production. In other words, for the most part the guys getting the most minutes are the guys producing the most from an NEP perspective. Two things I expect to see happen:

1) Marcus Denmon and, to a lesser extent, Kim English will start to take more and more of Matt Lawrence's minutes. You don't necessarily need numbers to come to this conclusion. Lawrence has done almost nothing (0.04 NEP/minute) against real teams, and while Denmon (0.30) and English (0.04) haven't been world-beaters, it's clear that when Lawrence's shot isn't falling, he doesn't have a lot to offer. Denmon is finding a lot of different ways to contribute despite his shooting troubles. Lawrence does pretty well in rebounding and passing, but he's no better than Denmon in that regard.

2) Miguel Paul might not overtake Zaire Taylor, but he'll at least get to where they're evenly splitting the minutes. Against real teams, Taylor is averaging 0.26 NEP/minute, while Paul is at 0.28. Overall, it's Taylor 0.38, Paul 0.39. Obviously not a huge difference there, but it would behoove Anderson, clearly, to favor youth here, and eventually that will happen.

Also: Keith Ramsey should probably start playing more. His free throw shooting will keep him out of crunch time, but the dude has been fantastic at the "little things" thus far, like passing and putbacks. He's no better at the defensive rebounding than Carroll or Lyons, but like Safford he's an energy-and-hustle guy, and there will be minutes available for that in this system.

The Road Ahead

When Mizzou allows opponents to get a shot off, bad things happen for Mizzou. And when they don't, there's a decent chance the opponent will get the offensive rebound. Otherwise, Mizzou is beating expectations so far this season. They are passing wonderfully, they are forcing a ton of turnovers (while not giving up the ball themselves), and they are producing (FT issues aside). That is very encouraging considering how much freshmen are already playing. Zaire Taylor doesn't do much for me, and I know that JT Tiller and DeMarre Carroll are playing over their heads right now, but there is still a lot more potential on this squad than in previous years.

Looking at the upcoming slate of games, you figure these numbers will continue to look good. Of Mizzou's 10 remaining non-conference opponents, only three are from major conferences (California, vs Illinois, @ Georgia), and really only one of the non-major teams (Oral Roberts, MAYBE Murray State) has much of a pulse. At worst, Mizzou is looking at rounding out the non-conference slate at about 8-2, which would put them at 12-3 heading into conference season. I don't know what to think about the Big 12 yet--you have to know by now that when I know something, I'll be posting it here--but with a couple of iffy starters (Lawrence, Taylor) and a whole lotta youth on the bench, I'll take 12-3.

And if those assist-to-turnover numbers continue (unlikely, but possible), big things could be in store for this team.

Rock M Nation

Mizzou opens as 14.5-point dogs

Mizzou opens as 14.5-point dogs

No Monday Musings today...

Mizzou Links, 12-1-08

Dave Christensen will remain Mizzou's offensive coordinator for the next month or so. Right move?

Apply today for a 2008 Big 12 Championship Fan Visa!

Mizzou finally has its opponent

Match-ups with Mizzou aside, who do you feel SHOULD have won the Big 12 South?

Post-Dispatch reporting Christensen taking Wyoming Job

Post-Dispatch reporting Christensen taking Wyoming Job

Quick thoughts on MU-KU...

Live Thread: Mizzou vs. Kansas

Next Game

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #5)

Second Quarter

Third quarter

Fourth Quarter

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

'+' Rankings

Key Players: Kansas

Key Players: Mizzou

Summary & Prediction

Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #5)

Thanksgiving may be over, but hopefully you left some extra room for another feast... Let's play...

A Thanksgiving Special with rptgwb...

Hate Week: YouTube Edition (Day #4)

Mizzou Basketball: Beyond the Box Score?

Offense

Defense

Rebounding

Passing

40 Minutes of Hell

Who Should Be Playing?

The Road Ahead