So here's where writing for SBN and Rock M gets a little awkward. You see, I already wrote a stat-heavy preview at the mothership. It posted a little while ago, and you should read it. So instead of starting from scratch, below I'll try to build off of what I've already written. That means two things: graphs and blockquotes.

Trends

Momentum doesn't tend to matter in bowl games; it is, I think, why the F/+ picks tend to do quite a bit better in bowl season than in the regular season -- with two to six weeks off between games, any sort of momentum pretty much dies by the time the bowl comes around. However, development and momentum are two different things. You may not be "hot" or "cold" when the bowl kicks off, but you can be better or worse than you were in September.

Any long-term trends worth noticing with either of these two teams? First, Missouri:

Mizzou was up and down all season, particularly on offense; they oscillated between a good offense and a great one, while their defense typically played at or slightly ahead of the national average. It is probably worth noting that two of Mizzou's three best defensive performances came in the last three weeks, but that might qualify as "momentum." In terms of style, however, Texas and Kansas were relatively similar to North Carolina, perhaps more than anybody else on the schedule. I mentioned in last week's In The Bleachers podcast that I wondered if Mizzou was more well-equipped to handle a pro-style attack than a spread; this potentially suggests good things in that regard.

The offense, meanwhile, had its issues post-Josey. As one would expect.

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And we finally catch up to what I've normally finished by Tuesday...

Field Position: A Boring And Effective Way To Stay In A Game

Average Starting Field Position (First Half): Kansas 48.4, Missouri 31.6.

(This counts the pick six as a starting field position of 100. Without this one, KU's average is 41.0.)

When your offense isn't producing, you can still win games with defense and special teams; that's what Kansas attempted to do in the first half. They took a seven-point lead into halftime despite the fact that they had gained just 60 yards in the first half, and it was due mostly to the effect three interceptions had on field position. For every possession in the first half, Mizzou had to gain 17 yards just to match Kansas. Eventually, they were able to turn the tables, but with the field position game, it sometimes takes a while.

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NOTE: Confused? See the quick glossary at the bottom.

Kansas at Missouri

One of the two teams meeting at Arrowhead on Saturday afternoon has overcome injuries, a brutal schedule, tight losses, worse injuries and a surprising coaching arrest to emerge with bowl eligibility intact. The other has figured out a way to get worse after finishing 113th in the F/+ rankings in 2010. While an upset is never an impossibility in a rivalry game like this one -- especially if it is the last in the series for at least a while -- the numbers suggest that a Missouri loss to Middle Tennessee or New Mexico State would be less surprising than a Kansas win. Now Mizzou has to go out and back the numbers up.

In my Kansas preview for SBN this summer, I said the following:

Teams don't collapse out of nowhere like this and immediately rebound with much velocity. While Gill figures out what he has (and preferably begins to think about a new pair of coordinators with an actual underdog mentality), it's not hard to see Kansas improving a bit and at least showing occasional saltiness in the fall; but it's also not hard to see the Jayhawks bottoming out. Kansas fans should look for individual progress from some of the youngsters -- Jordan Webb at quarterback, James Sims, Deshaun Sands and Darrian Miller at running back, et cetera -- in the hopes of building for 2012-13, but 2011 is most likely not going to be too pleasant an experience in Lawrence, especially not with their most winnable conference game (Iowa State) coming on the road.

To say the least, Kansas hasn't rebounded. The offense showed signs of life, mostly in first halves, in September and early October, but the Jayhawks have no reliable receivers and no quarterback capable of making middling receivers look reliable. KU has an interesting ground game at times, but once the scripted plays have run out, so have the Jayhawks' chances.

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NOTE: Confused? See the quick glossary at the bottom.

After this morning's news of Gary Pinkel's DWI arrest, we are in an unusual position of previewing a game in which we don't officially know who will be coaching Missouri. We will find out this afternoon if Pinkel is going to be fined, suspended, or worse (early indications are that he will serve a suspension), but for now we will press forward as if whoever is coaching Missouri will produce the same quality product, be it PInkel or a temporary interim (Dave Steckel, I assume).

Texas Tech at Missouri

We begin the analysis with three graphs. Because graphs make everything better. First up: Tech's Adj. Score trends. Though "trend" is a bit inaccurate, as Tech has been all over the place.

Tech's Adj. Score Trend

So basically, Tech's offense has played at a better-than-average level six times in ten games; their defense has done so just once. The defense has trended toward poor, but their offense has almost literally gone up and down, then up again, each week. Their last two road games, however, have seen two of their best (opponent-adjusted) offensive performances, so the trip to Columbia does not automatically mean they will lay an egg. (Evidently this is the year to play them at Jones-AT&T Stadium, eh?)

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Rarely does a defense manage to improve their yardage allowed by 450 yards in a single week, but that's exactly what Mizzou pulled off against a wounded Texas unit.

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NOTE: Confused? See the quick glossary at the bottom.

I told a friend of mine on Sunday that, if the goal was to up the ante for F*** Texas Week, Mizzou certainly started it with a bang on Sunday. But it won't mean much without a win on Saturday morning, eh?

Texas at Missouri

(I also told that same friend that I really wish Missouri had played Texas in September and Oklahoma in November, and not the other way around. Alas.)

Texas and Missouri are two young teams at interesting places in their development. Texas is limited but quickly becoming adept in their one area of offensive proficiency (rushing); their defense, meanwhile, has trended toward average since September, sans one perfect performance versus Kansas. Missouri, on the other hand, has shown more glimpses of great all-around play, but they have rarely put all the pieces together at one time. The teams are developing in different ways, at different rates, and I honestly cannot figure out what I think will happen when they take the field on Saturday. Do home field advantage and a more well-rounded offense swing the game toward Mizzou? Does a still-stellar defense and an improving offense give the edge to the Horns? (Spoiler alert: the numbers really don't know what to do with this game either.)

Gary Pinkel has yet to actually defeat Mack Brown, partially because he has never actually gotten to face any of the more 'down' Texas teams -- the five teams Pinkel has faced have gone a combined 60-5; the five he missed went 46-18; that's a nice tidbit, but as Mizzou gets ready to change conferences, this is Pinkel's last, and best, opportunity.

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Somehow, it's already Wednesday. Better late than never when revisiting a particularly frustrating loss, right? Right?

In Which I (Sort Of) Compliment A Torched Secondary

I hate to break out the "tale of two halves" cliche more than necessary, but we really did seem to experience two different games on Saturday evening. The first saw a Missouri defense scrapping; they avoided big plays, they forced Baylor to drive the length of the field to score, they took advantage of some shoddy Baylor place-kicking, and they hit the break up 14-13. They managed the explosive Baylor offense as well as just about anybody had all season, and the target numbers prove it.

It truly is difficult to see any defense handling the Baylor passing game much better than that. Wright struggled, then tweaked his ankle, and Griffin actually had to check down to his rarely-used tight end to move the ball downfield. He's a fantastic, elusive quarterback, so he was able to check down and find open men sometimes, but Mizzou made him work. The Bears moved Williams around the field a bit and bought him some favorable matchups -- he caught his first six passes and drew an (incredibly, ridiculously dicey) pass interference call on a seventh, but when Kendall Wright got shaken up, Mizzou moved E.J. Gaines to Williams, and Williams' final three targets of the half all fell incomplete.

(Gaines was somewhat directly responsible for the fact that the first three passes to Wright also fell incomplete -- he is a complete and total badass at this point.)

But then, in my estimation, two things happened to derail the Mizzou defense:

1) Baylor hit the 50-play mark awfully quickly.
2) Braylon Webb got hurt on the first drive of the second half.

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NOTE: Confused? See the quick glossary at the bottom. It feels really weird having to hate Hot Tub Griffin III for a week.

Missouri at Baylor

We probably generalize too much in this regard -- I know I do -- but it is impossible not to get caught up comparing coaches to coaches based on a tiny sample of results. Mike Gundy owns Gary Pinkel. Gary Pinkel owned Mike Leach. Gary Pinkel owns Mike Sherman. Mark Mangino owned Gary Pinkel, then Pinkel owned Mangino. Of course, with the same sample size, we could also say that Mizzou owns the SEC, so this is probably indeed a fruitless exercise.

This is good, as when it comes to Gary Pinkel versus Art Briles, the advantage has gone one specific direction. Pinkel and Briles have faced off twice since Briles took the Baylor job. In 2008, a strong, superior, ten-win Mizzou team needed Baylor's Jordan Lake to drop an interception (one that would have probably been taken back for a touchdown) just so Jeff Wolfert could take (and make) the game-winning field goal in the final minutes and escape, 31-28. In 2009, a Baylor squad lacking an injured Robert Griffin III came to Columbia and still passed for approximately 1,143 yards in a 40-32 Baylor win. Baylor is not incredibly deep, and they can be pushed around a bit on the interior, but they dominated Missouri in 2009 with speed on the edges; in 2011, they have even more speed.

The matchup advantages might go in both directions, but Mizzou does have one thing on its side: momentum. Not necessarily their own -- in terms of opponent-adjusted Adj. Points, their Adj. Scoring Margin for their past five games has been all over the place: +17.1, +1.6, +19.9, +0.1, +13.5 -- but Baylor's.

I like to say that improvement (or regression) tends not to be linear -- it is more likely to come in the form of two steps forward and one step back. That said ... Baylor's trend this year has been pretty damn linear. Their offense has gone from other-worldly to merely good, and their defense has trended from average to awful. If this continues, Mizzou is in great shape to move to 5-4 and continue what they hope is a late-season surge. But if Good Baylor shows up (to the extent that the Good Baylor that existed in September is still available), then this is a dogfight.

To the matchups!

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