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Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.
68.8% % Close 52.5%
49.7% 50.3% Field Position % 55.1% 44.9%
71.3% 65.9% Leverage % 76.8% 68.5%
Total
795 780 Plays 762 826
313.43 292.05 EqPts 392.41 265.57
47.6% 41.8% Success Rate 56.8% 42.1%
0.39 0.37 PPP 0.51 0.32
0.870 0.792 S&P 1.083 0.743
Close Games
528 555 Plays 453. 381
218.59 212.79 EqPts 228.79 119.84
47.9% 43.1% Success Rate 57.6% 42.8%
0.41 0.38 PPP 0.51 0.31
0.893 0.814 S&P 1.081 0.742
Rushing
115.92 105.62 EqPts 145.56 91.46
49.4% 39.4% Success Rate 52.0% 40.6%
0.33 0.33 PPP 0.46 0.25
0.820 0.728 S&P 0.977 0.659
3.35 2.71 Line Yds/carry 3.13 2.73
Passing
197.51 186.44 EqPts 246.84 174.12
46.0% 43.4% Success Rate 60.3% 43.3%
0.45 0.40 PPP 0.56 0.38
0.910 0.837 S&P 1.160 0.809
5.9% 4.3% Sack Rate 2.2% 5.4%
Non-Passing Downs
51.7% 46.5% Success Rate 61.5% 47.1%
0.38 0.37 PPP 0.55 0.32
0.895 0.831 S&P 1.162 0.794
5.3% 3.9% Sack Rate 1.6% 4.1%
53.8% 50.4% Run Rate 47.9% 52.8%
Passing Downs
37.4% 33.0% Success Rate 41.7% 31.6%
0.43 0.39 PPP 0.41 0.32
0.807 0.720 S&P 0.830 0.636
6.8% 4.8% Sack Rate 3.6% 7.1%
23.4% 23.5% Run Rate 23.5% 26.7%
Turnovers
19 21 Total 17 19
43.19 61.28 Points Lost 48.11 45.63
46.04 50.30 Points Given 34.23 71.73
89.23 111.58 Total T/O Pts 82.34 117.36
+22.35 -22.35 T/O Pts Margin/Gm +35.02 -35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

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Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (with 1 week to go)

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Only two games last week, but as I've stressed before, one game can affect all the rankings...

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 241.6
 1 242.0 -0.4
2 Oklahoma 240.9
 3 228.8 +12.1
3 Texas Tech 226.4
 2 233.1 -6.7
4 Missouri 218.1
 5 217.0 +1.1
5 Oklahoma State 217.7
 4 219.0 -1.3
6 Nebraska 209.5
 6 210.1 -0.6
7 Kansas 205.1
 7 203.7 +1.4
8 Baylor 188.5
 8 187.8 +0.7
9 Kansas State 179.9
 9 178.3 +1.6
10 Colorado 172.0
 10 170.1 +1.9
11 Texas A&M 169.9
 11 169.9 0.0
12 Iowa State 166.7
 12 164.4 +2.3

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

No surprises here.  Biggest positive mover: Oklahoma.  Biggest negative mover: Texas Tech.  Shocking.  Neither K-State nor Iowa State moved much, suggesting their contest pretty much went exactly as expected.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

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Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)

Iowa St. (20)
% Close = 35.5%
46.6% Field Position %
 53.4%
76.6% Leverage %
 67.5%
TOTAL
64 Plays 77
37.04 EqPts 25.81
62.5% Success Rate 45.5%
0.58 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.34
1.204 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.790
CLOSE GAME ONLY
36 Plays 14
16.52 EqPts 2.94
52.8% Success Rate 35.7%
0.46 PPP 0.21
0.987 S&P 0.567
RUSHING
15.57 EqPts 4.46
65.2% Success Rate 39.1%
0.68 PPP 0.19
1.329 S&P 0.585
2.90 Line Yards/carry
 3.06
PASSING
21.47 EqPts 21.34
61.0% Success Rate 48.2%
0.52 PPP 0.40
1.133 S&P 0.877
NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3% Success Rate 46.2%
0.63 PPP 0.24
1.264 S&P 0.706
PASSING DOWNS
60.0% Success Rate 44.0%
0.41 PPP 0.52
1.008 S&P 0.963
TURNOVERS
2 Number 2
6.39 Points Lost 6.06
1.82 Points Given 8.31
8.21 Total T/O Pts 14.37
+6.16 Turnover Pts Margin -6.16
0.915 Q1 S&P 0.839
1.245 Q2 S&P 0.704
1.251 Q3 S&P 0.766
1.645 Q4 S&P 0.896
0.787 1st Down S&P 0.649
1.281 2nd Down S&P 1.024
2.265 3rd Down S&P 0.840
  • The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
  • After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge.  Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones.  Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
  • For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark.  Good to see.  We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
  • ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
  • It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

 

Poll
Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

  69 votes | Results

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Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 7 weeks)

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

No big marquee game this week, but one thing's for certain regarding the BTBS numbers: if only one game is played, everybody's numbers change.  So let's see what happened with everybody winning easily and Texas Tech and Oklahoma watching on TV.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 242.0
 1 239.4 +2.4
2 Texas Tech 233.1
 3 230.4 +2.7
3 Oklahoma 228.8
 2 230.9 -2.1
4 Oklahoma State 219.0
 5 213.7 +5.3
5 Missouri 217.0
 4 214.7 +2.3
6 Nebraska 210.1
 7 202.9 +7.2
7 Kansas 203.7
 6 205.2 -1.5
8 Baylor 187.8
 9 182.1 +5.7
9 Kansas State 178.3
 8 187.4 -9.1
10 Colorado 170.1
 10 175.8 -5.7
11 Texas A&M 169.9
 11 173.5 -3.6
12 Iowa State 164.4
 12 161.8 +2.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

I should note that I've all but decided to change the "Close Game" parameters.  Currently, they are straight forward--if the scoring margin is within less than 17 points, it's a "close game".  If not, it's not.  I'm thinking about changing that to "within less than 21 or 24" for the first half, then maintaining "within less than 17" for the second half.

I guess Texas Tech's former opponents did better than Oklahoma's, as Tech managed to go up 2.7 points on bye while Oklahoma fell 2.1.  I can't say I understand how that happened--OU's only two opponents who haven't played Tech are Nebraska and Baylor, who both played well last week--but it did, and I'm going to live with it.  Needless to say, they're close enough that the winner of Saturday night's game in Norman will indeed be at least #2 next Monday...maybe #1.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

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Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way.  If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now.  If we don't...yikes.  Let's not think about that.  Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.
55.3%
% Close 73.9%
56.3%
 43.7%
 Field Position % 53.0%
 47.0%
79.7%
 67.8%
 Leverage % 64.3%
 71.3%






Total

669
 749
 Plays 698
 668
355.37
 239.77
 EqPts 227.72
 306.33
56.3%
 41.8%
 Success Rate 41.3%
 49.0%
0.53
 0.32
 PPP 0.33
 0.46
1.094
 0.738
 S&P 0.739
 0.948






Close Games

417
 367
 Plays 495
 514
212.27
 116.90
 EqPts 164.87
 231.79
58.0%
 43.1%
 Success Rate 40.6%
 47.9%
0.51
 0.32
 PPP 0.33
 0.45
1.089
 0.749
 S&P 0.739
 0.930






Rushing

74.85
 86.99
 EqPts 74.76
 126.61
53.3%
 40.7%
 Success Rate 39.4%
 47.4%
0.45
 0.26
 PPP 0.31
 0.36
0.987
 0.664
 S&P 0.706
 0.834
3.15
 2.71
 Line Yds/carry 2.73
 3.24






Passing

225.38
 152.78
 EqPts 123.74
 179.72
60.2%
 42.7%
 Success Rate 41.9%
 50.6%
0.56
 0.37
 PPP 0.36
 0.57
1.163
 0.799
 S&P 0.778
 1.075
2.2%
 6.1%
 Sack Rate 4.3%
 4.7%






Non-Passing Downs

61.4%
 47.2%
 Success Rate 48.3%
 53.2%
0.54
 0.33
 PPP 0.33
 0.45
1.152
 0.803
 S&P 0.812
 0.986
1.4%
 4.7%
 Sack Rate 4.0%
 3.2%
48.0%
 53.9%
 Run Rate 57.0%
 60.5%






Passing Downs

40.0%
 30.3%
 Success Rate 26.8%
 38.5%
0.41
 0.30
 PPP 0.36
 0.47
0.814
 0.602
 S&P 0.632
 0.855
4.0%
 8.0%
 Sack Rate 4.6%
 7.0%
24.2%
 27.0%
 Run Rate 31.4%
 33.3%






Turnovers

15
 17
 Total 17
 24
41.72
 39.57
 Points Lost 42.73
 61.30
32.41
 63.42
 Points Given 39.47
 63.66
74.13
 102.99
 Total T/O Pts 82.20
 124.96
+28.86
 -28.86
 T/O Pts Margin/Gm +42.76
 -42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

Poll
What scares you most about MU-ISU?
RB Alexander Robinson
3 votes
ISU's ability to force turnovers
6 votes
BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!
38 votes
Nothing
24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

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Mizzou-KSU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

K-State
(24)

Mizzou
(41)
% Close = 41.8%
34.6% Field Position %
 65.4%
59.5% Leverage %
 67.1%
TOTAL
74 Plays 79
21.60 EqPts 35.52
32.4% Success Rate 41.8%
0.29 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.45
.616 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.867
CLOSE GAME ONLY
32 Plays 32
2.53 EqPts 13.78
25.0% Success Rate 43.8%
0.08 PPP 0.43
0.329 S&P 0.868
RUSHING
12.86 EqPts 17.05
38.7% Success Rate 42.1%
0.41 PPP 0.45
0.802 S&P 0.870
2.84 Line Yards/carry
 2.97
PASSING
8.74 EqPts 18.47
27.9% Success Rate 41.5%
0.20 PPP 0.45
0.483 S&P 0.865
NON-PASSING DOWNS
40.9% Success Rate 45.3%
0.42 PPP 0.56
0.830 S&P 1.014
PASSING DOWNS
20.0% Success Rate 34.6%
0.10 PPP 0.22
0.304 S&P 0.568
TURNOVERS
2 Number 2
2.71 Points Lost 6.15
6.87 Points Given 2.41
9.58 Total T/O Pts 8.56
-1.02 Turnover Pts Margin +1.02
0.315 Q1 S&P 0.824
0.320 Q2 S&P 1.145
0.931 Q3 S&P 0.453
1.163 Q4 S&P 1.039
0.771 1st Down S&P 1.008
0.545 2nd Down S&P 0.810
0.451 3rd Down S&P 0.535
  • The Mizzou offense sputtered all night, as Chase Daniel seemed to have misplaced what arm strength he has in the locker-room before the game.  The defense, however, never gave K-State even a millisecond to breathe.  These are about the best close-game defensive stats that you'll ever see from a Mizzou defense.  Mizzou's 0.868 close-game S&P was a big disappointment considering the opponent, but K-State's 0.329 close-game S&P was amazingly low.
  • Mizzou's biggest defensive problems in '08: occasional Passing Down lapses, Passing PPP.  K-State's Passing Downs S&P: 0.304.  K-State's Passing PPP: 0.20.  The fact that KSU only managed an overall 0.29 PPP despite a 93-yard run against the Mizzou scrubs tells you all you need to know, really.  We're all quick to unleash fury when Mizzou's defense doesn't live up to standards (as against Baylor), but we should be just as quick to throw praise in their direction when they're this dominant.  K-State's problem hasn't been offense this year (they don't have a great offense, but it's certainly been solid, especially in the passing game), but Mizzou completely and totally shut them down.
  • Mizzou was as big an overachiever as you could find in the first half of the season when it came to success on Passing Downs.  But Chase Daniel has lost his mojo in this regard, and he knows it.  We can win the North even if he doesn't rediscover the magic, but we sure as hell won't have a chance in the Big 12 title game without it.
Poll
Who was the statistical MVP from Mizzou-Kansas State?
Jeremy Maclin (16.26 EqPts, 2.105 S&P)
63 votes
Derrick Washington (a tempo-setting 5.31 EqPts rushing, 5.87 overall)
0 votes
Sean Weatherspoon (8.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, an outstanding 0.736 Defensive S&P)
0 votes
Carl Gettis (4.5 tackles, a complete shutdown of Brandon Banks)
6 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

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Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 6 weeks)

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Tech whooped OSU, while Texas, OU and Missouri sleep-walked through easy wins...what's that do to the Big 12 Rankings?

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 239.4 2 227.0 +8.4
2 Oklahoma 230.9 1 226.2 +4.7
3 Texas Tech 230.4 3 222.6 +7.8
4 Missouri 214.7 5 218.3 -3.6
5 Oklahoma State 213.7 4 220.8 -7.1
6 Kansas 205.2 6 203.1 +2.1
7 Nebraska 202.9 7 198.1 +4.8
8 Kansas State 187.4 9 186.0 +1.4
9 Baylor 182.1 10 181.4 +0.7
10 Colorado 175.8 11 178.0 -2.2
11 Texas A&M 173.5 8 187.5 -14.0
12 Iowa State 161.8 12 163.3 -1.5

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

By not putting up a bazillion points against K-State, Missouri's score ended up dropping a smidge, but thanks to OSU's craptastic output against Texas Tech, Mizzou still managed to hop to #4 in the rankings.

The biggest positive mover this week was Texas.  The BTBS numbers were apparently quite impressed with the way they rediscovered their offensive rhythm, I guess.  Meanwhile, I guess ATM put up even less fight than most hapless opponents do against OU, and they were punished with a 14.0-point drop.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

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Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Well...between Senior Day and Ron Prince, there has been very little talk (or motivation to talk) about the actual game taking place this weekend.  And while I'm not finding a ton of motivation either, the numbers will do the talking!

KSU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.
53.7% % Close 55.7%
47.6% 52.4% Field Position % 55.5% 44.5%
66.1% 68.3% Leverage % 77.2% 68.6%
Total
632 682 Plays 624 684
255.78 269.74 EqPts 323.25 217.16
42.9% 44.6% Success Rate 57.9% 42.3%
0.40 0.40 PPP 0.52 0.32
0.831 0.841 S&P 1.097 0.740
Close Games
319 387 Plays 389 340
132.16 157.36 EqPts 198.12 114.10
45.8% 46.0% Success Rate 58.6% 44.1%
0.41 0.41 PPP 0.51 0.34
0.872 0.867 S&P 1.095 0.777
Rushing
96.97 135.21 EqPts 112.57 73.13
43.4% 44.8% Success Rate 51.7% 39.9%
0.33 0.38 PPP 0.43 0.23
0.761 0.825 S&P 0.949 0.630
2.72 3.14 Line Yds/carry 3.12 2.39
Passing
158.81 134.53 EqPts 200.69 144.03
42.4% 44.3% Success Rate 62.3% 44.3%
0.47 0.42 PPP 0.55 0.40
0.898 0.859 S&P 1.175 0.845
2.7% 4.6% Sack Rate 2.2% 6.5%
Non-Passing Downs
51.0% 49.6% Success Rate 62.9% 47.3%
0.44 0.42 PPP 0.53 0.32
0.950 0.920 S&P 1.162 0.790
2.2% 4.8% Sack Rate 1.6% 5.1%
56.5% 59.7% Run Rate 47.3% 54.4%
Passing Downs
27.1% 33.8% Success Rate 40.8% 31.2%
0.33 0.33 PPP 0.47 0.32
0.605 0.671 S&P 0.874 0.631
3.3% 4.4% Sack Rate 3.7% 8.4%
28.5% 37.5% Run Rate 23.2% 28.4%
Turnovers
20 10 Total 13 15
48.82 23.23 Points Lost 35.58 36.87
55.77 24.80 Points Given 30.00 56.55
104.59 48.03 Total T/O Pts 65.58 93.42
-56.56 +56.56 T/O Pts Margin/Gm +37.84 -37.84

Thoughts after the jump.

Poll
What scares you the most about the Mizzou-KSU game?
Josh Freeman looks great in a uniform
7 votes
We don't have a history of playing well against teams with lame duck coaches
13 votes
There's no way Mizzou will be sharp after the emotion of the Senior Day ceremonies
8 votes
Nothing
43 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

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Mizzou-Baylor (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...

Mizzou
(31)

Baylor
(28)
% Close = 100.0%
51.4% Field Position %
 48.6%
80.8% Leverage %
 75.9%
TOTAL
73 Plays 79
31.56 EqPts 29.73
63.0% Success Rate 53.2%
0.43 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.38
1.062 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.908
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
9.45 EqPts 11.85
57.6% Success Rate 57.5%
0.29 PPP 0.30
0.862 S&P 0.871
3.43 Line Yards/carry
 3.20
PASSING
22.10 EqPts 17.88
67.5% Success Rate 48.7%
0.55 PPP 0.46
1.228 S&P 0.946
NON-PASSING DOWNS
69.5% Success Rate 56.7%
0.43 PPP 0.29
1.120 S&P 0.856
PASSING DOWNS
35.7% Success Rate 42.1%
0.46 PPP 0.65
0.820 S&P 1.073
TURNOVERS
3 Number 2
9.39 Points Lost 5.50
4.93 Points Given 4.27
14.32 Total T/O Pts 9.77
-4.55 Turnover Pts Margin +4.55
1.315 Q1 S&P 0.842
1.183 Q2 S&P 0.953
0.790 Q3 S&P 1.041
0.807 Q4 S&P 0.702
0.970 1st Down S&P 0.739
1.158 2nd Down S&P 1.066
1.156 3rd Down S&P 0.741
  • How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday?  Success on 2nd downs.  They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
  • How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday?  It appears the answer is in the trenches.  Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed.  This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples).  While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
  • It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected.  Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P.  And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear.  Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)?  While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play).  Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou.  Is that coaching?  Execution?  Luck?  No idea.
  • Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor.  OUCH.  Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance!  The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.

Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...

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Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 5 weeks)

Rockmnation_tiny by The Boy on in Beyond the Box Score

We're switching up the order this week!  Instead of the 'BTBS Box Scores' piece, we're going to do the Rankings on Monday and the 'Box Scores' (combined with my MU-BU analysis) on Tuesday.  So there you go.  Onward!

We have a new leader in the overall rankings below.  Texas' performance on Saturday allowed OU to creep by them.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Oklahoma 227.0 2 226.3 +0.7
2 Texas 226.2 1 238.1 -11.9
3 Texas Tech 222.6 3 225.5 -2.9
4 Oklahoma State 220.8 5 218.0 +2.8
5 Missouri 218.3 4 224.8 -6.5
6 Kansas 203.1 7 194.9 +8.2
7 Nebraska 198.1 6 203.5 -5.4
8 Texas A&M 187.5 9 182.5 +5.0
9 Kansas State 186.0 8 189.0 -3.0
10 Baylor 181.4 10 178.2 +3.2
11 Colorado 178.0 11 167.3 +10.7
12 Iowa State 163.3 12 165.3 -2.0

    * Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

    Colorado had the week's best improvement, simply because they were not completely horrific.  Needless to say, CU's and ISU's scores are so low that they don't have to do much to improve a decent amount.  Meanwhile, Texas fell a decent amount due to the same reason.  Not only did they play like crap for most of the first half against Tech, but they were also so high last week that their numbers had almost no choice but to fall.

    The most confusing move is that of Texas Tech.  They stayed in the #3 slot, and they're much closer to #1 than they were last week, but while they caused Texas to fall a lot, their own score fell a smidge too.  I'd guess that has as much to do with the worthless performances of Kansas State and Nebraska (two former opponents) as much as anything.

    Category rankings and projections after the jump.

    Poll
    Who do you think will win the South?
    Oklahoma
    29 votes
    Oklahoma State
    13 votes
    Texas
    37 votes
    Texas Tech
    78 votes

    157 votes | Poll has closed

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