We've been justifiably veering toward football talk as the summer has approached, but for one day, we're flipping the switch back to basketball.

I wrapped up our 2009-10 basketball season wrap-up series in late-March and early-April with a pair of early looks at the Big 12 in 2010-11 (North, South -- the South piece also contains info on the methods I use for these projections), posting a couple of updates throughout April and promising to revisit the subject once teams had more-or-less filled their remaining scholarships and early-entry players had committed to staying in the draft or coming back to school.

At this point, I think we know what most players' intentions are, and while there might still be another signee or two coming (Iowa State still only has ten scholarship players lined up for next year), they probably won't be impressive enough signings to make a difference in one way or another.  So, aside from the drama that might be following Matt Pilgrim around this summer, I think the rosters are set enough for us to take one final, uh, future look at how the Big 12 might play out next year.

Teams are listed in order of their projected finish.

Kansas (14-2)

What I said a month ago:

So KU loses their all-time winningest guard and two likely Lottery picks ... and they lose less overall statistical production than anybody else in the conference so far?  That hardly seems fair.  But it's pretty easy to see how it will come about.  Collins is replaced, in part, by former 5-star recruit Elijah Johnson, and the lawfirm of Morris, Robinson and Morris man the frontcourt.  Add a potential breakout season from Taylor (if he's got one in him) and nice production from Little, who was a solid chemistry guy in 2008-09, and that's a pretty disgustingly good team.  Maybe their overall team defense struggles without Aldrich, and maybe that's worth another couple of points to the overall "loss" total, but ... that's still a smaller loss than most other teams are suffering.  Ridiculous.

Since then, Kansas has locked up the commitment of their next big freshman All-America type, Josh Selby.  A Baltimore native, Selby was Rivals.com's #1 player in the country, and I'm sliding him into the starting lineup.  Most star freshmen struggle at times no matter their recruiting ranking (think Avery Bradley), but KU will have enough depth they can account for that.

Really, the more I look at this team, the more impressed I am by the mix of young talent and experience.  You've got potentially great role players like Mario Little, Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, Travis Releford, and Jeff Withey to go alongside former and current 5-star guards (Selby, Elijah Johnson) and major hosses in the paint (the lawfirm of Morris, Morris and Johnson).  Most people are going to pick Kansas State to win the conference this coming season, and while that's absolutely a possibility, I'm still going with Kansas because a) you never bet against a streak, and b) they really could be outstanding.  And, of course, because the numbers tell me to.

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I've seen quite a bit of consternation among Mizzou fans, not necessarily on RMN, but elsewhere, about how Mike Anderson clearly flirted with Oregon, and how he's more about the money than Mizzou fans thought, and that he's almost certainly going to leave soon.  One fan on another site even went so far as to say (paraphrased) "Part of me wants us to fire him so we at least have some control over the process."

As Mizzou fans, we are extremely spoiled in terms of loyalty -- Norm Stewart coached in Columbia for 32 years, and the last coach of a revenue sport we lost to a bigger job was Dan Devine ... who left to replace Vince Lombardi in Green Bay, a move I would think most of us would understand.  But as RPT said on last night's podcast (which I'm sure you ALL listened to ... possibly twice), welcome to big-time college basketball.  It's always been this way to an extent -- big-time coaches are always getting wooed toward bigger-time jobs -- but it is even more the case today.  If we want a big-time coach, we've got to pay up.  If we can't (and we're pretty much maxed out at the moment), we might lose him.

Maybe we'll have enough money to keep Anderson forever (clearly we don't need the most money to keep him, but we at least have to be semi-competitive), or maybe somebody (cough cough Arkansas) will scrounge around and put together just a stupid offer, to the extent that he has to consider it heavily.  But to make the big-time, you probably have to have a big-time coach ... and big-time coaches get big-time money.  Maybe Anderson will continue to turn down the offers coming his way, but they'll never stop coming at him as long as he's successful.

What drives me the craziest about some fans' reactions, though, is that I'm pretty sure he never actually considered the Oregon job as much as they thought.  Let's parse his official statement from last night.  Obviously official statements are going to have a certain amount of spin to them, but I take this one at least 75-80% at face value.

It’s certainly flattering any time another university notices what your program is accomplishing. And when I was approached by Oregon, I decided to listen, but it was simply with my family in mind.

I said this on Friday in comments, and I'll say it again now: I think about this from a family perspective. Obviously his kids are set for life, but if you can make $10 million over the next five years, or if you can make $25 million over the next five years, eventually you have to start to take stock in your kids’ kids, or kids’ kids’ kids, and how you could pretty much set them up too. It’s all a lot of money, and it’s clear that Anderson isn’t an "I’ll go to the highest bidder" guy, but … at some point, a ridiculous, giant increase is a ridiculous, giant increase, and it would be silly and almost irresponsible not to consider it.  If some company with a bad reputation (Oregon clearly doesn't have a bad reputation -- just makes for a better analogy) came in and offered me a huge raise, I would probably turn it down eventually, but I'd have to think about what my family and I could do with that extra money, right?

Because I said this on Friday, clearly I believed it when Anderson said it Saturday night.

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There are times when recruiting junior college players seems like going for the quick fix.  You have a hole in your program that you haven't properly addressed with four-year players, and you need to plug it.  Some coaches manage to consistently find breakthrough talent at the JUCO level -- Bob Huggins at Cincy obviously comes to mind, not to mention Bill Snyder if we're veering into football -- but for the most part, it's not a very successful long-term strategy.

But when you're 1-2 pieces away, you have two high school All Americans (or at least near All-Americans), and you have a large foundation of four-year talent ready to break through as upperclassmen?  That's the perfect time to bring in a JUCO or two to shore up previous weaknesses.  Mizzou needed more of a scoring presence on the inside, and for depth purposes, they needed potentially one more combo guard who was strong on defense ... and this weekend, in Ricardo Ratliffe and Matt Pressey, they got both.

Today we're going to both update my ongoing Big 12 2010-11 projections and take a further look into Pressey's and Ratliffe's stats to figure out reasonable expectations for next season.  (And to be sure, the updated projections are far from reasonable.  They're downright over-exuberant.)

Minutes and Updated Projections

For debate purposes, below I'm including the projected minutes per game I used to determine the overall scoring.  Players in bold averaged 20+ MPG in 2009-10, and this is my best stab at how minute distribution might look.  Suddenly there is major competition for the post minutes, with Steve Moore now potentially drawing no more minutes than he did last season, but I guess that's a good problem to have, eh?

(For visitors, in this post is an explanation of what the heck "AdjGS" is and how it is used here.)

Previous Projected Difference: -0.7 the first time, -3.7 the second time.

As a whole, I tried to give the projected starters 20+ minutes, but the overall distribution was rather difficult considering Mizzou has 12 interesting pieces next year.  I gave John Underwood 5.1 MPG and Ricky Kreklow 4.3.  Let me know if something seems entirely incorrect about somebody's minutes.

Oh, and Mizzou now has eight players projected at 0.35 AdjGS/Min. or higher.  Oklahoma has zero.  Just thought I'd throw that in there.

As you remember from previous projections posts, I stayed extremely conservative with the per-minute projections, to the point where every team in the conference was projected to regress.  No longer.  While a dropoff in team defense is still likely, the offense and rebounding now look to improve to enough of a degree that Mizzou is projected to improve by 2.6 points.  Yikes.

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It's only been a week or so since we took a stab at some Big 12 projections (South, North), but things have changed a little bit.  Avery Bradley has declared for the draft (though he hasn't hired an agent, and I think there's a decent chance he returns), Willie Warren has declared for the draft (and will quite likely hire an agent), and Mizzou's transfer rumors, while still not at full fruition, certainly appear to be taking shape.  It appears all but certain that both Miguel Paul and Tyler Stone will not be in Mizzou uniforms next year (never say never, but the rumors are twelve steps beyond rampant).  What does that do to last week's projections?  Let's take a look.

Missouri

It's a big recruiting weekend for Mizzou, with two high-profile JUCOs -- Matt Pressey (brother of Phil) and Rivals' #1 JUCO Ricardo Ratliffe -- in town.  (Initial word from open scrimmages is that they're both as good as advertised or better ... though this comes from open scrimmages, and I guess we know how impressions from them should be taken with a grain of salt).  Regardless, with any luck, I'll be having to update these projections again in the next week after a couple of commitments roll in, but for now we'll stay conservative and pretend that nobody else is coming to campus.  Here are the new projections, assuming Paul and Stone are indeed gone.

Previous Projected Difference: -0.7.

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Part One: The Team Stats
Part Two: The Player Stats and Style Doppelgangers
Part Three: More Doppelgangers - The Scorers
Part Four: More Doppelgangers - The Distributors
Part Five: Final Doppelgangers - The Backup Bigs (and Sutton)
Part Six: What Mattered Most?
Part Seven: Mike Anderson vs Nolan Richardson
Part Eight: Homework
Part Nine: The Big 12 South in 2010-11

Yesterday, we looked at the Big 12 South and how most teams seem to be ready to regress by a step or two (or in Oklahoma State's case, potentially three or four).  Today's let's move North, to a division that appears ready to continue moving forward.

Colorado

I've got to say, I have no idea what to expect from Colorado's two stars, Cory Higgins and Alec Burks, in 2010-11.  Their per-minute production was off the charts in 2009-10, particularly that of Burks, a freshman from Grandview passed over in recruitment (at least until it was too late) by Kansas and Missouri.  As a 3-star freshman, Burks could have been expected to produce at about a 0.23 AdjGS/minute rate ... and he almost tripled that.  Unexpected star freshmen often suffer sophomore slumps, and I would at least somewhat expect that from Burks, but how much of one?  The projections say he'll fall back to around the 0.50-0.52 level ... but the projections also missed wildly on him this season.

Regardless of what Burks and Higgins (now seemingly the forgotten man) produce, one thing is certain: CU's bigs are still ... shall we say, less than adequate.  The Buffs just got destroyed on the interior this season, and since they return almost exactly the same roster next year, there's really not a lot of opportunity for improvement.  After Higgins and Burks, no Buff is projected to produce at higher than a 0.33/min level, which ... is pretty bad.  The backcourt could get even better, as Nate Tomlinson will now be a junior, and they'll bring Shannon Sharper (no, not that one) into the mix after he redshirted in 2009-10 due to injury.  But if they're still relying on the Austin Dufaults and Shane Harris Tunkses of the world to eat up major minutes, they will still be quite limited.

This really will be a pretty experienced team in 2010-11, but I just don't know if the talent is there. Based on projections, they lose less than anybody in the South, and maybe they can throw a challenge in for the #7 spot in conference (or if all goes perfectly, #6), but I worry that this team was already pretty close to their ceiling this year, and I'm not sure that the ceiling gets much higher next year.

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Part One: The Team Stats
Part Two: The Player Stats and Style Doppelgangers
Part Three: More Doppelgangers - The Scorers
Part Four: More Doppelgangers - The Distributors
Part Five: Final Doppelgangers - The Backup Bigs (and Sutton)
Part Six: What Mattered Most?
Part Seven: Mike Anderson vs Nolan Richardson
Part Eight: Homework

In 2009-10, the Big 12 was resurgent.  Not for a few years had this many programs looked to make noise on a national level, and that was with Oklahoma unexpectedly (for some) going into the tank.  Kansas may have once again run away with the conference title, but K-State looked better than it had since the 1980s, Baylor and Texas A&M were downright scary-good at times, Missouri maintained after losing three tough seniors, Texas reached #1 in January before sliding, and Oklahoma State did something none of the others could do -- beat Kansas.  Plus, Texas Tech looked great in the NIT, Colorado came on strong, and even last-place Nebraska looked rock solid at times (including both games they played in the Big 12 Tournament).

What will the conference do for an encore in 2010-11?  How's a six-way title race sound?  Good?

Actually, I shouldn't go there.  As we'll see with the data below, the likely result of the 2010-11 race has a rather familiar tone to it.  But in theory, we could be in for some fun.  Kansas, defenders of their 26th (or so) straight conference title, lose their leader (Sherron Collins), their tree (Cole Aldrich), and almost certainly their precocious freshman (Xavier Henry).  They likely return the Morris twins (there are rumblings that Marcus will test the pro waters, but I'll believe it when I see it), Tyrady Morningreed, and others, but it wouldn't surprise anybody should they take a step backwards in 2010-11.  Meanwhile...

KSU really only loses Denis Clemente.

Mizzou returns most of its core (including the three sophomores who were their biggest contributors in 2009-10).

A&M's got experience and length.

Baylor is (barring an unforeseen leap to the pros by LaceDarius Dunn) returning their best player and has a ridiculous amount of size, even without Ekpe Udoh (who I assume is going pro).

Texas still has as much blue-chip talent as anybody, and a change in chemistry might do them well.

It seems that KU will have some serious challengers for the throne next year, doesn't it?  Well let's apply some data to the matter and see what happens.

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Part One: The Team Stats
Part Two: The Player Stats and Style Doppelgangers
Part Three: More Doppelgangers - The Scorers
Part Four: More Doppelgangers - The Distributors
Part Five: Final Doppelgangers - The Backup Bigs (and Sutton)
Part Six: What Mattered Most?
Part Seven: Mike Anderson vs Nolan Richardson

We've reviewed the stats, we've made comparisons, and we've dropped some hints.  As our season wrap-up series draws to a close, it's time to assign some homework. As we bid adieu to everybody for the summer and switch our focus to football, here's what we want to see developing from each player between now and when they re-enter our lives in late-October.

(All images below come from the lovely photo archives at The Missourian unless otherwise noted.)

Kim English

Bill C.: Tap Into Your Chievous

In one of the more entertaining SI profiles ever written, Derrick Chievous said the following:

"It's all tricks in college," he says. "As you can see, I'm not the biggest dude in the world. If they throw your ass down a couple of times, you've gotta pop the J. I find a way to get fouled. It's the easiest points you'll get. Three pointers? I don't bomb 'em from way out. I score, go to the line for a little rest, then shoot the free throw."

Thanks to Twitter (#FollowKimmie!), we know what Kim English's main area of focus is for this summer -- mid-range and ball-handling.  Sounds good.  However, do not underestimate the importance of free points and a little body control.  Along with a nice mid-range jumper, if you can master the art of drawing contact as you go up, you can quite easily up your scoring average by 2-3 points per game while improving nothing else.  Easier said than done, obviously, but all I'll say is this: you have complete access to virtually any film the athletic program has, and I bet there's quite a bit of Derrick Chievous film lying around some where.  Watch it, watch it again, then have Tyler Stone ride your hip every day in pick-up games and start experimenting.

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Part One: The Team Stats
Part Two: The Player Stats and Style Doppelgangers
Part Three: More Doppelgangers - The Scorers
Part Four: More Doppelgangers - The Distributors
Part Five: Final Doppelgangers - The Backup Bigs (and Sutton)
Part Six: What Mattered Most?

vs

One of my favorite pieces I've written on Rock M was last year's two-part series comparing Mike Anderson to Nolan Richardson after three years (Part One, Part Two).  Most of the conclusions I reached then are still valid now, but I thought it would be interesting to update things for the year that just finished.  Below, we will take a look at each coach's program stats after four seasons and dip our toes into the recruiting waters, just like we did last year.

Nolan vs Anderson: First Four Years

It bears repeating that Richardson took over a program in much greater health than the one Anderson took over, and he landed a McDonald's All-American (Ron Heury) in his first full recruiting class.  After two years of treading water (it happened for both coaches at both schools), Anderson has gone 54-18 (0.750 win%) the last two years, with four NCAA Tourney wins.  Richardson, meanwhile, managed a slightly lesser record (46-16, 0.742) and only one NCAA Tourney win in Years 3-4.  The health of each program was obvious in both cases, but one can still make a damn strong case that Anderson's program is in better shape moving forward than Richardson's was after four seasons.

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