Defensive Lines

1. Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
2. Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
3. Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
4. Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
5. Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
6. Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return.  Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

1. Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
2. Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
3. Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
4. Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
5. Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
6. Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference.  Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense.  Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam.  If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

1. Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
2. Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
3. Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
4. Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
5. Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
6. Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards.  The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma (17)
2. Texas (14)
3. Texas Tech (11)
4. Oklahoma State (9)
5. Baylor (8)
6. Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first.  ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

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Quarterbacks

1. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
2. Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
3. Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
4. Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
5. Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
6. Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here.  If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap.  If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

1. Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
2. Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
3. Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
4. Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
5. Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
6. Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine.  Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
2. Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
3. Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
4. Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
5. Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
6. Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)
   

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario.  He's gone.  As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South.  OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley.  OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them.  Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

1. Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
2. Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
3. Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
4. Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
5. Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
6. Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)
   

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09.  You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

1. Oklahoma State (21)
2. Texas (20)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (12)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will.  But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (17)
3. Oklahoma (15)
4. Texas Tech (13)
5. Texas A&M (9)
6. Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

1. Oklahoma State (22)
2. Texas (21)
3. Texas Tech (13)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

1. Oklahoma State (23)
2. Texas (18)
3. Texas Tech (14)
4. Oklahoma (10)
5. Texas A&M (10)
6. Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Yesterday, it was North Offenses.  Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

1. Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
2. Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
3. Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
4. Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
5. Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
6. Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers.  KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable.  Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

1. Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
2. Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
   
3. Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
4. Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
5. Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
6. Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong.  If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009.  Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has.  Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average.  NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

1. Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
2. Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
3. Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
4. Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
5. Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
6. Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy.  If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary.  I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs.  Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson.  But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

1. Nebraska (15)
2. Missouri (12)
3. Kansas State (11)
4. Iowa State (10)
5. Kansas (9)
6. Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths.  Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters.  Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense.  Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here.  Big-time tossup.  A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

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Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football.  Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season.  Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons.  Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers.  Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge.  Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs.  Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility.  While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened.  And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected.  Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived.  Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen.  Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous.  Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009.  Daniel and Harrell?  Gone.  Crabtree and Maclin?  Almost certainly gone.  McCoy, Bradford, Freeman?  Possibly gone.  Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris?  Gone.  Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility.  So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus.  Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion."  For '09?  "New"  Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009.  We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009.  We'll start with the North Division.  To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers.  There will certainly be a time and place for that.  Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings.  And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits.  Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy.  Plus, you'll probably be wrong.  Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Continue reading this post »

BIG 12 GAMES

 VS. 

Iowa State at Kansas State (-10)
2:30 p.m., FCS Central

 VS. 

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7)
7:00 p.m., ABC (HD)

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST

Michigan at Ohio State
11:00 p.m., ABC (HD)

Syracuse at Notre Dame
1:30 p.m., NBC (HD)

Air Force at TCU
2:30 p.m., Versus

Michigan State at Penn State
2:30 p.m., ESPN2/ABC

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
6:15 p.m., ESPN2 (HD)

Away we go...

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Texas	--
4	Florida	1
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Utah	--
8	Penn State	1
9	Boise State	1
10	Oklahoma State	--
11	Missouri	1
12	Ohio State	1
13	Ball State	1
14	Georgia	1
15	Oregon State	4
16	Michigan State	1
17	TCU	1
18	Brigham Young	1
19	Pittsburgh	1
20	Cincinnati	2
21	Miami (Florida)	5
22	Northwestern	4
23	Oregon	3
24	Maryland	2
25	Central Michigan	1

• This ballot is yours to bury. I swear the Big East and the ACC are making it impossible for me to rank 15-25.
• Not a lot of movement at the top thanks to a rather dull week in college football. Florida may be playing some of the best football in the country, and gets a bump for thoroughly dismantling South Carolina.
• Oklahoma drops one spot as a result, but I feel comfortable doing so with the Sooners having an opportunity to catapult themselves up the ballot with a win over Tech next week.
• At some point, I've got to punish Boise for being in a mediocre conference, right? At least Utah will have gone through TCU and BYU if they go undefeated.
• I think Missouri is starting to find its final sweet spot in the 9-11 range. As disappointing as the OSU and Texas games were, Missouri could very well finish as a Top 10 team once again.
• Oregon State is quietly playing some great football right now, and could really screw with the BCS for qualifying for the Rose Bowl.
• The rest of the ballot? Take it for what it's worth. I'm in no way married to the bottom of the ballot, so if you have a convincing argument, hit me.

A late start for Mizzou means another morning/afternoon of national live threading from the RMN masses. Join us as we keep an eye on the game in Lawrence and phase one of the "Nov. 15 North Championship" plan.

BIG 12 GAMES

 VS. 

Texas  (-13.5) at Kansas
11:30 a.m., FSN (HD)

 VS. 

Nebraska (-6.5) at Kansas State
2:30 p.m., PPV

 VS.

Texas A&M at Baylor (-8.0)
3:05 p.m., no TV announced

 VS. 

Oklahoma State (-17) at Colorado
7:00 p.m., ABC

AND... don't forget: Mizzou basketball is back!

Who: Missouri Tigers vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Where: Mizzou Arena (Capacity 15,061)
When: 3:30 p.m. CST
TV: Mizzou Sports Network

BIG 12 GAMES

 VS. 

Baylor at Texas (-25.5)
11:00 a.m., FSN (HD)

 VS. 

Iowa State at Colorado (-10)
11:30 a.m., Versus

 VS.

Kansas (-1.5) at Nebraska
1:30 p.m., Pay Per View

 VS. 

Oklahoma at Texas A&M (-24.5)
2:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN (HD)

 VS. 

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3)
7:00 p.m., ABC (HD)

National games of interest after the jump

Continue reading this post »

Is it already November? Wow...

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	1
2	Texas Tech	3
3	Penn State	--
4	Texas	3
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Florida	--
7	Oklahoma State	--
8	Southern Cal	1
9	Utah	1
10	Boise State	1
11	Ohio State	1
12	TCU	1
13	Missouri	1
14	Georgia	6
15	Ball State	5
16	Brigham Young	1
17	Northwestern	9
18	Michigan State	6
19	Minnesota	1
20	Georgia Tech	5
21	LSU	6
22	Pittsburgh	1
23	Florida State	4
24	Tulsa	8
25	Air Force	1

One more week, one more ballot:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Penn State	--
4	Oklahoma	--
5	Texas Tech	1
6	Florida	1
7	Oklahoma State	2
8	Georgia	1
9	Southern Cal	1
10	Utah	--
11	Boise State	1
12	Ohio State	1
13	TCU	1
14	Missouri	7
15	LSU	2
16	Tulsa	8
17	Brigham Young	3
18	Minnesota	8
19	Florida State	7
20	Ball State	3
21	Pittsburgh	4
22	Connecticut	4
23	South Florida	5
24	Michigan State	2
25	Georgia Tech	6

Dropped Out: Boston College (#15), Virginia Tech (#16), Kansas (#22), Vanderbilt (#25)

Justifications (or at least the best I can do):

• Spots 1-3 explain themselves
• Oklahoma sticks at No. 4, as Texas Tech gets an audition for a top 4 spot this coming weekend depending on how tough it plays Texas
• I can't justify dropping OSU below 7. That is a damn good, well-coached football team who apparently gave the nation's top team hell
• Ohio State drops only one spot following hanging tough with No. 3 Penn State
• Mizzou comes in at No. 14, right ahead of an LSU team coming off a beatdown by Georgia
• I finally start to give Tulsa its due at No. 16
• Same for Minnesota, who ends up at No. 18
• I have no idea what to do with the Big East. As The Boy and I were discussing over the weekend, someone in that conference is going to go 4-3 in-conference and get spanked in a BCS Bowl
• I want so badly to be on the Georgia Tech bandwagon (Wooo Flexbone!), but Virginia pops up and bites another ACC team I find myself liking after beating North Carolina last week