87-88 wins. That is what I got using this fun, user friendly spreadsheet thingy Sky of BTB came up with.

I mostly went off Marcel projections or just my gut for the offense and pitchers ERA, so there may be a tinge of homer in there. But mostly, I tried to stick with the projections. Well, except for plate appearances and innings. Those were more an educated guess. I am admittedly optimistic on the amount of innings the Wagonmaker and Lohse will throw.

For fielding, I gave Yadi 1.1 wins and then mostly looked at Sean Smith's fielding projections for OF and IF. For base running, I docked half a win off of Yadi, Glaus I docked 1/5th of a win. Everyone else I left alone, but it's probably no big diff if I tried to get real technical with it.

You can find the spreadsheet here. I plan on doing more with it throughout the season, but wanted to run it by you VEBers, figuring the wisdom of the crowds may help.

I was thinking more like 85 wins, so the results surprised me. If it's true that they are in the 88 win range, they should be aggressive buyers when it comes to SP, as Chuck was saying this morning. I would hope around 90 wins could at least win the wild card. I need to run the projections on the Cubs, Phillies and Mets at some point.

Did you see that? Did you see that right there? I used a pun to title this diary. Bam. 

Buster Olney says that Brad Penny is "weighing an overture" from the Cardinals among other options. It would be for a one year deal. Quick show of hands - who didn't see this coming?

Penny was awful last season, throwing only 94.2 innings and had a 6.27 ERA. But in in 2007 he was pretty darn good, posting a 3.63 FIP over 33 starts. Penny pitched much better in the first half of the season than the second due to the fact that he was dealing with some shoulder soreness that he tried to pitch through, which could be a very big reason why he stunk last year. Some Dodger fans doubted how serious his injury was and didn't like the way he went AWOL before the season ended. He did not undergo surgery.

While his K/9 rate dipped down under 5, his pitch F/X card says he averaged about 94.5 MPH on his fastball last year, for what it's worth. Fangraphs has 92.5. Regardless, that's only a tick or so off from his normal velocity.

Penny graduated from Broken Arrow HS (just outside Tulsa) so he might prefer the  the Cardinals considering geography and the fact Oklahoma's considered "Cardinal Country", although I'm not sure how much that really will factor in his decision making. We know money will.

There is good chance he'll be this season's Matt Clement, but there's the hope that he gets healthy enough to pitch like the Brad Penny of old, at least for part of the season.  For just one year and most likely not  a ton of cash, seems like a worthwhile gamble to me. 

Just to speculate a little more, I've been halfway wondering if Mo doesn't also add Brandon Lyon just to give La Russa his precious cap-C closer, even though Lyon  wasn't able to hold down the job last year for Arizona and probably wouldn't pitch better than Motte or Perez. I'm not advocating it, but I have in inkling it'll happen.

UPDATE: The Red Sox signed him for a 1 year, $5M with incentives for innings pitched. Bah. Kawakami or bust!

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Jess Todd was a 2nd round pick in the 2007 draft, and pitched pretty well over three levels this year in the Cardinals system. A+, AA, and AAA. He also made the Futures Game. Looking at him, he doesn't quite look like a typical starting pitcher, but his success as a starter is tough to ignore. Can you take a look at him?

Thanks!

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Low hanging fruit! Get your low hanging fruit here!

• Jonny Gomes
• Takashi Saito
• Ty Wigginton
• Chris Capuano
• Willy Tavares
• Yhency Brazoban
• Tim Redding
• Chuck James
• Angel Berroa
• Scott Proctor
• Clay Hensley
• Daniel Cabrera
• Chris Burke
• Joe Nelson
• Charlie Haeger
• Denny Bautista
• Chris Britton
• Justin Christian
• Gary Majewski
• Matt Belisle
• Joe Nelson
• Jeff Salazar
• Robby Hammock
• Wilfredo Ledezma
• Doug Mathis
• Kevin Cash
• Joey Gathright
• Lance Cormier
• More on the way, no word on who the Cardinals will non-tender, if anyone. (FLORES! Cough!) update: Miles, Flores and TyJo were non-tendered
  

A couple of quick thoughts---

If Ty Wigginton can play 2B, is he worth $6-8M? He has an OPS+ of 105 for his career, and in 140 games at 2B has an UZR of -1.1

Daniel Cabrera was once all velocity and no control, but his velocity has been falling off a little bit every season and he struck out less than five per nine last season. Definitely a Dunc candidate if there ever has been one, but I'm not so sure if he's worth the frustration.

If healthy, perhaps the 39 yr. old Saito could fit the bill as the "proven closer" TLR is looking for, and at much less of a cost. I'd rather them have a stopgap guy like Saito then them spending gobs of $ on a type A free agent like Fuentes. But you have to think his arm is pretty much toast if the Dodgers aren't willing to pony up the $3.5M he's estimated to get in arbitration to retain him.

I have a soft spot in my heart for knuckeballers, so I would love to see them take a flyer on Charlie Haeger.

Tim Redding, here we come...

Here's the updated, complete list.

I'm sure I'm going to sound like some weird person who likes to spread internet gossip in order to get attention--but I assure you I'm not. I've been told by an insider in the DR that the Giants have signed 16 year old Dominican OF Rafael Rodriguez. He's been compared to Dave Winfield, at least for physicality. His power and speed are 70's on the 20-80 scale, but his ability to make consistent contact is questionable. He signed for $2.55 M, and I'm told the Cardinals were right there.

There's another rumor the Cards suprassed the Giants offer and are giving him $3.3 M, but I can't verify that yet. Anyway, take it fwiw.

Hey, I'm really sorry but I had some things come up and I'm not going to be able to oversee the Tigers draft. Would someone care to take it over for me? I would love to do it normally but I just can't.

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This is the Tigers MOD, so what does that mean? It means we will draft and sign the best player available, now matter their signability!!! Scott Boras, come on down! We will pay your players! The system has lots of needs after last winter's strip down, and I'm not sure a top player falls to us at 21, but I'm crossing my fingers for Eric Hosmer. If anyone would fall, it would be a high school 1B with a $7 M demand. If that doesn't work could also use a reliever who could have a quick impact, IE Josh Fields, Andrew Cashner and Ryan Perry immediately come to mind

First three

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Deputy duties are open.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=344052

$1 M contract + performance bonuses. $25,000 each for 15 starts or 100 innings, and 20 starts or 15 innings. $50,000 for 25 starts or 150 innings.

I say thee myeh. hopefully he doesn't have to make any starts.

Mr. Dramatic Homer himself of today's discussion signed a 4-year deal with an option for a 5th per the P-D. No word on how much. I like Yadier, who doesn't enjoy seeing him pick off a napping player at 1st or gun out Jose Reyes at 2nd? But I do feel for Bryan Anderson, who's likely going to become the superior player. I do think Yadier is probably a better hitter then his career line suggests, and last season we got a taste of it. 4-5 years seems like we're nailing him in for his peak and just maybe the very beginning of his decline, him playing the hardest position on the field and all.

I may have posted this here before, but are you a regular attendee at Mizzou baseball games? Would you like your opinions help influence a big league club on drafting a kid on your favorite team?

I'm an intern working on a knowledge-base project with a MLB club. We're trying to find savvy D1 baseball fans who are interested in sharing their evaluations of players defense with us. We've created a website that makes it extremely easy for you to share your opinions with us. The results of the collaboration are available and free to all that are interested.

If you would be interested in participating or helping in anyway, let me know at eriknmanning@gmail.com and I'll give you more details.