As you'll see, the game Iowa State played on Saturday was pretty much BTBS-proof. Putting yourself in one awkward 3rd-down situation after another doesn't usually end up too happy, and they did lose, but...looking at the numbers, you get the impression that they lost by much more.
And as always, feel free to consult the freshly updated BTBS Glossary at any time...
Success Rate by Quarter
Q1: Missouri 81.8%, Iowa State 37.5%
Q2: Iowa State 54.5%, Missouri 45.5%
Q3: Missouri 52.9%, Iowa State 33.3%
Q4: Iowa State 50.0%, Missouri 46.7%
TOTAL: Missouri 60.0%, Iowa State 44.8%
That Mizzou only outscored ISU 29-14 in Q1 and Q3 is pretty miraculous. Mizzou couldn't have dominated the action more, but that INT for TD really helped ISU out a bunch...
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Success Rate by Down
Here's one I was particularly interested in seeing...
1st: Missouri 60.0%, Iowa State 38.2%
2nd: Missouri 62.5%, Iowa State 43.3%
3rd: Iowa State 55.0%, Missouri 54.5%
4th: Iowa State 66.7% (2-for-3), Missouri N/A
TOT: Missouri 60.0%, Iowa State 44.8%
Sounds about right. Iowa State constantly managed 5 yards on 3rd-and-5. As I said after the game, they skated on thin ice for a really, really long time, and it didn't bit them as much as you would have figured.
QB Success Rate
Mizzou
Chase Daniel: 60.9%
-- Run: 55.6%
-- Pass: 64.9% (37 passes, 13.13 EqPts, 0.35 PPP)
Iowa State
Bret Meyer: 44.8%
-- Run: 41.7%
-- Pass: 47.1% (48 passes, 13.38 EqPts, 0.28 PPP)
Run Success Rate and Points Per Play
Mizzou
Tony Temple: 4-for-8 (50.0%) / 8 carries, 4.44 pts (0.56/carry)
Jeremy Maclin: 3-for-5 (60.0%) / 5 carries, 3.65 pts (0.73/carry)
Jimmy Jackson: 5-for-7 (71.4%) / 7 carries, 2.37 pts (0.34/carry)
Chase Daniel: 1-for-4 (25.0%) / 4 carries, 1.72 pts (0.43/carry)
Martin Rucker: 1-for-1 (100.0%) / 1 carry, 0.10 pts
Derrick Washington: 1-for-1 (100.0%) / 1 carry, 0.06 pts
Danario Alexander: 0-for-1 (0.0%) / 1 carry, 0.02 pts
TOTAL: 14-for-27 (51.9%) / 28 carries, 12.36 pts (0.44)
TOTAL, RBs: 10-for-16 (62.5%) / 16 carries, 6.87 pts (0.43)
Iowa State
Alexander Robinson: 11-for-21 (52.4%) / 21 carries, 10.24 pts (0.49/carry)
J.J. Bass: 1-for-7 (14.3%) / 7 carries, 1.06 pts (0.15/carry)
Jason Scales: 1-for-5 (20.0%) / 5 carries, 0.40 pts (0.08/carry)
R.J. Sumrall: 0-for-1 (0.0%) / 1 carry, minus-0.27 pts
Bret Meyer: 2-for-2 (100.0%) / 5 carries, minus-0.35 pts (minus-0.07/carry)
TOTAL: 15-for-36 (41.7%) / 39 carries, 11.08 pts (0.28/carry)
Receiver Success Rate
Mizzou
Martin Rucker: 6-for-7 (85.7%) / 7 catches, 5.21 pts (0.74/catch)
Jeremy Maclin: 6-for-7 (85.7%) / 7 catches, 3.31 pts (0.47/catch)
Danario Alexander: 3-for-4 (75.0%) / 4 catches, 1.31 pts (0.33/catch)
Jason Ray: 2-for-3 (66.7%) / 3 catches, 1.28 pts (0.43/catch)
Tommy Saunders: 3-for-3 (100.0%) / 3 catches, 1.18 pts (0.39/catch)
Chase Coffman: 2-for-2 (100.0%) / 2 catches, 0.42 pts (0.21/catch)
Tony Temple: 1-for-1 (100.0%) / 1 catch, 0.22 pts
Derrick Washington: 1-for-1 (100.0%) / 1 catch, 0.20 pts
TOTAL: 24-for-28 (85.7%) / 28 catches, 13.13 pts (0.47/catch)
Iowa State
Todd Blythe: 3-for-6 (50.0%) / 6 catches, 2.84 pts (0.47/catch)
R.J. Sumrall: 5-for-8 (62.5%) / 8 catches, 2.45 pts (0.31/catch)
Marquis Hamilton: 5-for-5 (100.0%) / 5 catches, 2.40 pts (0.48/catch)
Derrick Catlett: 3-for-5 (60.0%) / 5 catches, 2.00 pts (0.40/catch)
Alexander Robinson: 3-for-3 (100.0%) / 3 catches, 1.99 pts (0.66/catch)
Ben Barkema: 2-for-3 (66.7%) / 3 catches, 1.09 pts (0.36/catch)
Milan Moses: 2-for-2 (100.0%) / 2 catches, 0.31 pts (0.16/catch)
J.J. Bass: 1-for-1 (100.0%) / 1 catch, 0.30 pts
TOTAL: 24-for-33 (72.7%) / 33 catches, 13.38 pts (0.41/catch)
Line Yards and Sack Rate
Mizzou
Line Yards: 28 carries, 81.6 line yards (2.91/carry)
1st-2nd down sack rate: 28 pass attempts, 0 sacks (0.0%)
3rd-4th down sack rate: 9 pass attempts, 0 sacks (0.0%)
Iowa State
Line Yards: 36 carries, 90.9 line yards (2.53/carry)
1st-2nd down sack rate: 31 pass attempts, 0 sacks (0.0%)
3rd-4th down sack rate: 20 pass attempts, 3 sacks (15.0%)
Defensive Success Rates
Missouri
Defensive Line
Stryker Sulak: 3.5 tackles, 3.5 successful (100.0%)
John Stull: 1.5 tackles, 1.5 successful (100.0%)
Jaron Baston: 0.5 tackles, 0.5 successful (100.0%)
Jaysen Corbett: 0.5 tackles, 0.5 successful (100.0%)
Ziggy Hood: 5.0 tackles, 4.5 successful (90.0%)
Tommy Chavis: 2.5 tackles, 2.0 successful (80.0%)
Charles Gaines: 3.0 tackles, 1.5 successful (50.0%)
Lorenzo Williams: 1.5 tackles, 0.5 successful (33.3%)
TOTAL: 18.0 tackles, 14.5 successful (80.6%)
Linebackers
Van Alexander: 1.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (66.7%)
Sean Weatherspoon: 9.5 tackles, 4.5 successful (47.4%)
Brock Christopher: 6.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (41.7%)
Luke Lambert: 1.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 18.0 tackles, 8.0 successful (44.4%)
Defensive Backs
Del Howard: 5.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (50.0%)
Castine Bridges: 6.5 tackles, 3.0 successful (46.2%)
Darnell Terrell: 4.0 tackles, 1.5 successful (37.5%)
Pig Brown: 7.5 tackles, 2.0 successful (26.7%)
William Moore: 2.5 tackles, 0.5 successful (20.0%)
Carl Gettis: 1.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
Paul Simpson: 2.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 29.0 tackles, 9.5 successful (32.8%)
% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 18.0 of 65.0 (27.7%)
Linebackers: 18.0 of 65.0 (27.7%)
Defensive Backs: 29.0 of 65.0 (44.6%)
Lessons I've learned from doing these BTBS's for a while: 1) if your DL makes as many tackles as your LBs, that's probably not good; 2) if your DBs make more successful plays than your LBs, that's almost certainly not good. I just can't imagine the Mizzou D-line playing much better than it did on Saturday. That shows in both the DL success rate (80.6%) and ISU's line yards (2.53/carry). However, if a play got past the DL, the LBs were almost nowhere to be found. This is their second straight game with a sub-50% success rate. They have to make more plays for Mizzou to be effective...especially with Pig out.
These numbers also show what I was already thinking: I think Del Howard is up to the task when it comes to approximating Pig Brown's numbers. It's Pig's attitude that needs to be passed on to somebody. Sean Weatherspoon is a mean S.O.B., and after a couple of lackluster games, it's time for him to step up.
Iowa State
Defensive Line
Kurtis Taylor: 1.0 tackles, 1.0 successful (100.0%)
Nick Frere (yes, Nick...not Nate): 2.0 tackles, 1.5 successful (75.0%)
Rashawn Parker: 1.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (66.7%)
Bryce Braaksma: 2.0 tackles, 1.0 successful (50.0%)
Ahtyba Rubin: 3.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (28.6%)
TOTAL: 10.0 tackles, 5.5 successful (55.0%)
Linebackers
Jesse Smith: 4.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (62.5%)
Josh Raven: 1.5 tackles, 0.5 successful (33.3%)
Alvin Bowen: 5.0 tackles, 1.5 successful (30.0%)
Michael Bibbs: 1.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
Fred Garrin: 0.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 12.5 tackles, 4.5 successful (36.0%)
Defensive Backs
Devin McDowell: 2.0 tackles, 1.0 successful (50.0%)
Allen Bell: 2.0 tackles, 0.5 successful (25.0%)
Steve Johnson: 2.0 tackles, 0.5 successful (25.0%)
Jon Banks: 4.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (22.2%)
James Smith: 6.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (15.4%)
Chris Brown: 3.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
Chris Singleton: 1.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 21.5 tackles, 4.0 successful (18.6%)
% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 10.0 of 44.0 (22.7%)
Linebackers: 12.5 of 44.0 (28.4%)
Defensive Backs: 21.5 of 44.0 (48.9%)
I mentioned that the key to the game for Mizzou was the interior O-line shutting down Bryce Braaksma and Ahtyba Rubin. They made 2.0 successful plays between the two of them. Meanwhile, MU's backup DE, John Stull, made 1.5. I'd call that mission accomplished.
Turnover Costliness
Mizzou1 (McDowell INT for TD): 5.51 points
IowaSt1 (Williams FR for TD): 5.51 points
I'd call that pretty even.
Statistical MVPs
Offense: There's no clear-cut winner here, but Jeremy Maclin accounted for 6.96 points, scored the game-icing TD, and continues to make decent special teams plays despite getting fewer and fewer opportunities to do so. Runners-up: Martin Rucker (5.31 pts), Chase Daniel (64.9% success rate throwing the ball).
Defense: He caused the 5.5-pt turnover and registered a season-high 3.5 successful tackles (plus at least one pass deflection that I can think of). It's gotta be Stryker Sulak. Ziggy Hood and his 4.5 successful tackles are a close second.