clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

It's that time of week...time for me to stop ignoring that we have a game this weekend.  As I said earlier this week, I wish I could just fast forward to next Saturday afternoon...pretend this game is past us.  To some degree, each of the last four games has been called a "trap game".  Texas Tech because we were coming off the OU loss.  Iowa State because we were getting hyped and they had played OU well.  Colorado because it was a November road test.  ATM because we were looking ahead to KU.  Now comes the only true 'trap game' of the bunch--a trip to a place where we haven't won since I was in fifth grade.  Now, I don't believe that any of the last nine (it's nine, right?) losses in Manhattan mean anything to this team or this moment.  However...I just have a lot of bad memories of the place, and while I think we'll win, until we actually do win, there will be at least a smidge of doubt/worry.

All that said...on to the stats!  Here's the BTBS Glossary (which, as you'll see below, needs to be updated slightly now).

Success Rate by Quarter


Q1: MU 51.5%, Opp 41.9%
Q2: MU 48.1%, Opp 41.5%
Q3: MU 54.3%, Opp 45.9%
Q4: MU 55.6%, Opp 46.2%
TOTAL: MU 52.4%, Opp 44.0%

Kansas State
Q1: KSU 49.5%, Opp 36.2%
Q2: Opp 42.3%, KSU 36.2%
Q3: KSU 53.1%, Opp 41.5%
Q4: KSU 46.2%, Opp 38.1%
TOTAL: KSU 46.3%, Opp 39.8%

Click 'Full Story' for more.  Don't be scared.


Q1: MU 51.5%, Opp 41.9%
Q2: MU 49.2%, Opp 38.5%
Q3: MU 60.0%, Opp 46.2%
Q4: MU 47.9%, Opp 45.7%
TOTAL: MU 51.7%, Opp 42.4%

Kansas State
Q1: KSU 47.2%, Opp 36.2%
Q2: Opp 41.1%, KSU 34.8%
Q3: KSU 52.6%, Opp 35.4%
Q4: KSU 42.9%, Opp 38.8%
TOTAL: KSU 45.4%, Opp 38.0%


Q1: MU 53.3%, Opp 44.3%
Q2: MU 47.2%, Opp 37.7%
Q3: MU 57.0%, Opp 41.2%
Q4: MU 60.4%, Opp 44.8%
TOTAL: MU 54.3%, Opp 41.9%

Kansas State
Q1: KSU 47.8%, Opp 41.0%
Q2: Opp 44.4%, KSU 33.6%
Q3: KSU 49.6%, Opp 42.8%
Q4: KSU 48.5%, Opp 41.6%
TOTAL: KSU 44.8%, Opp 42.6%

C&C (Close and Conference) ONLY

Q1: MU 53.3%, Opp 44.3%
Q2: MU 47.5%, Opp 38.7%
Q3: MU 59.0%, Opp 44.6%
Q4: MU 55.8%, Opp 51.9%
TOTAL: MU 52.9%, Opp 43.8%

Kansas State
Q1: KSU 47.8%, Opp 41.0%
Q2: Opp 43.9%, KSU 31.7%
Q3: KSU 50.0%, Opp 35.1%
Q4: KSU 48.6%, Opp 38.2%
TOTAL: KSU 44.1%, Opp 40.2%

I haven't made any comments yet because the next one throws everything for a loop.


Q1: MU 39.0%, Opp 36.8%
Q2: MU 46.3%, Opp 14.8%
Q3: Opp 52.6%, MU 44.1%
Q4: MU 76.2%, Opp 40.9%
TOTAL: MU 51.5%, Opp 37.6%

Kansas State
Q1: Opp 58.6%, KSU 42.4%
Q2: Opp 54.1%, KSU 30.0%
Q3: KSU 44.1%, Opp 41.9%
Q4: KSU 48.7%, Opp 43.2%
TOTAL: Opp 48.6%, KSU 41.1%

When the calendar flipped to November, all hell broke loose.  Suddenly Mizzou is a Q2 & Q4 team instead of a Q1 & Q3 one.  Suddenly K-State can't stop anybody, and really can't move the ball all that well either.

Game Key #1: First Quarter.  It's a no-brainer to say that Q1 is important, but...well, it is.  And here's why: neither team has done a solid job of establishing itself in Q1 recently (i.e. in November).  Mizzou treads water, while K-State just gets blown out of said water.  As you'll see below in the Home/Road splits, KSU has done a good job of dictating the tempo and taking control early at home, but it's yet to be seen just how much the debacle of the last two weeks (both road games) will affect them.  They can't let this game get away from them early.


Mizzou (Road)
Q1: Opp 45.9%, MU 32.4%
Q2: MU 40.4%, Opp 24.1%
Q3: MU 53.1%, Opp 40.0%
Q4: MU 63.9%, Opp 41.4%
TOTAL: MU 47.6%, Opp 38.4%

Kansas State (Home)
Q1: KSU 43.3%, Opp 22.2%
Q2: Opp 48.2%, KSU 36.4%
Q3: KSU 47.8%, Opp 45.5%
Q4: KSU 40.4%, Opp 38.2%
TOTAL: KSU 41.7%, Opp 39.3%

Game Key #2: Second Quarter.  Right now, you're saying "Lemme guess, Game Key #3 is the third quarter, right?  And Game Key #4 is the fourth quarter.  Why am I reading this?"  Fair point.  I'm not sure why anybody reads these (actually, I don't know if anybody does or not).  But as you'll see in the home/road splits, the tide begins to turn in Q2.  

Mizzou doesn't get its footing very quickly on the road (and the emotion of Senior Day might continue that in Manhattan), but when it does, it doesn't really let go of it.  KSU must not only establish itself in Q1, it must avoid letting go in Q2.

Success Rate by Down

1st: MU 50.7%, Opp 46.4%
2nd: MU 51.7%, Opp 41.2%
3rd: MU 57.4%, Opp 42.9%
4th: MU 80.0%, Opp 50.0%
TOTAL: MU 52.4%, Opp 44.0%

Kansas State
1st: KSU 49.1%, Opp 41.9%
2nd: KSU 44.8%, Opp 42.0%
3rd: KSU 38.3%, Opp 34.7%
4th: Opp 50.0%, KSU 40.0%
TOTAL: KSU 45.4%, Opp 40.7%

Game Key #3: Third Quarter.  Just kidding.  It's actually third downs.  Pretty sure this is a key every week, but that makes sense, doesn't it?  KSU has a good third-down defense, but Mizzou is devastatingly effective in third the tune of "best in the country".  ATM was good at stopping third downs, but Mizzou still converted 60%.

But third downs are key on the flipside too--it's KSU's worst offensive down.  Put Josh Freeman in positions where he needs to make a play, and he struggles.  And if they go three-and-out a couple times, this game's over fast.

QB Success Rate


Total: 52.5%
Run: 50.6%
Pass: 53.9%

CHASE PATTON (in mop-up)
Total: 63.0%
Run: 69.7%
Pass: 46.2%

Kansas State

Total: 46.5%
Run: 46.7%
Pass: 46.4%

CARSON COFFMAN (in mop-up)
Total: 44.4%
Run: 41.9%
Pass: 60.0%

Run Success Rates and PPP

Tony Temple: 111 carries, 38.64 EqPts, 0.35 PPP, 42.3%
Chase Daniel: 65 carries, 26.67 EqPts, 0.41 PPP, 56.9%
Jeremy Maclin: 36 carries, 21.54 EqPts, 0.60 PPP, 55.6%
Jimmy Jackson: 51 carries, 21.50 EqPts, 0.42 PPP, 56.9%
Derrick Washington: 29 carries, 11.21 EqPts, 0.39 PPP, 58.6%
Martin Rucker: 13 carries, 5.24 EqPts, 0.40 PPP, 61.5%
Marcus Woods: 19 carries, 4.88 EqPts, 0.26 PPP, 57.9%
Earl Goldsmith: 18 carries, 3.72 EqPts, 0.21 PPP, 61.1%
Chase Patton: 4 carries, 3.26 EqPts, 0.82 PPP, 75.0%
Tommy Saunders: 1 carry, 0.43 EqPts, 100.0%
Danario Alexander: 3 carries, minus-0.11 EqPts, minus-0.04 PPP, 0.0%
Jared Perry: 1 carry, minus-0.40 EqPts, 0.0%
TOTAL: 351 carries, 136.59 EqPts, 0.39 PPP, 52.4%

Kansas State
James Johnson: 143 carries, 64.38 EqPts, 0.45 PPP, 53.8%
Leon Patton: 77 carries, 22.24 EqPts, 0.29 PPP, 33.8%
Josh Freeman: 30 carries, 9.64 EqPts, 0.32 PPP, 43.3%
Deon Murphy: 14 carries, 8.42 EqPts, 0.60 PPP, 64.3%
Terry Petrie: 12 carries, 6.52 EqPts, 0.54 PPP, 41.7%
Jeremy Reed: 5 carries, 1.19 EqPts, 0.24 PPP, 60.0%
Carson Coffman: 2 carries, minus-0.06 EqPts, minus-0.03 PPP, 0.0%
Jordy Nelson: 3 carries, minus-0.58 EqPts, minus-0.19 PPP, 0.0%
TOTAL: 286 carries, 111.74 EqPts, 0.39 PPP, 46.5%

While no single Tiger has accounted for even one-third of Mizzou's overall carries, James Johnson has accounted for half of K-State's.  That's pretty much the definition of "workhorse".

Game Key #4: James Johnson.  Jordy Nelson's going to get his catches and yards (he's averaging damn near 10 catches a game)--it's inevitable.  What is at least somewhat, uhh, evitable, is KSU's success running the ball.  I do not have much faith in Josh Freeman's arm, even with a stud receiver like Nelson; my strategy would be to do whatever possible to stuff the run and force the pass.  Again, three-and-outs will be deadly for KSU.  A couple nice stuffs early, and Mizzou could be cruising.  We know how well KSU can run the ball at times if it wants to--both Johnson and Patton went over 100 yards against us last year.  Granted, Patton's been rendered ineffective, but Johnson's been sturdy and dependable, and if you listen to K-State fans, he hasn't touched the ball enough.

Receiver Success Rates and PPP

Jeremy Maclin: 51 catches, 49.84 EqPts, 0.98 PPP, 86.3%
Martin Rucker: 66 catches, 43.79 EqPts, 0.66 PPP, 81.8%
Will Franklin: 36 catches, 36.16 EqPts, 1.00 PPP, 88.9%
Chase Coffman: 47 catches, 35.34 EqPts, 0.75 PPP, 89.4%
Danario Alexander: 26 catches, 15.29 EqPts, 0.59 PPP, 61.5%
Tommy Saunders: 22 catches, 11.11 EqPts, 0.51 PPP, 86.4%
Jared Perry: 11 catches, 7.98 EqPts, 0.73 PPP, 81.8%
Tony Temple: 6 catches, 4.89 EqPts, 0.82 PPP, 66.7%
Greg Bracey: 3 catches, 4.47 EqPts, 1.49 PPP, 66.7%
Derrick Washington: 7 catches, 3.35 EqPts, 0.48 PPP, 71.4%
Jason Ray: 6 catches, 2.12 EqPts, 0.35 PPP, 50.0%
Jimmy Jackson: 6 catches, 1.62 EqPts, 0.27 PPP, 66.7%
Earl Goldsmith: 4 catches, 0.81 EqPts, 0.20 PPP, 25.0%
TOTAL: 291 catches, 216.78 EqPts, 0.74 PPP, 80.8%
WR: 155 catches, 126.97 EqPts, 0.82 PPP, 80.6%
TE: 113 catches, 79.13 EqPts, 0.70 PPP, 85.0%
RB: 23 catches, 10.67 EqPts, 0.46 PPP, 60.9%

Kansas State
Jordy Nelson: 97 catches, 84.06 EqPts, 0.87 PPP, 81.4%
Deon Murphy: 47 catches, 37.54 EqPts, 0.80 PPP, 74.5%
Daniel Gonzalez: 26 catches, 17.59 EqPts, 0.68 PPP, 88.5%
Jeron Mastrud: 24 catches, 11.68 EqPts, 0.49 PPP, 83.3%
Michael Pooschke: 17 catches, 6.09 EqPts, 0.36 PPP, 64.7%
Lamark Brown: 3 catches, 2.11 EqPts, 0.70 PPP, 100.0%
Cedric Wilson: 5 catches, 1.67 EqPts, 0.33 PPP, 80.0%
Brett Alstatt: 1 catch, 1.00 EqPts, 100.0%
Ernie Pierce: 2 catches, 0.82 EqPts, 0.41 PPP, 100.0%
Terry Petrie: 1 catch, 0.12 EqPts, 0.0%
Tony Purvis: 1 catch, 0.07 EqPts, 100.0%
TOTAL: 268 catches, 176.12 EqPts, 0.66 PPP, 75.7%
WR: 181 catches, 143.86 EqPts, 0.79 PPP, 81.2%
TE: 42 catches, 18.77 EqPts, 0.45 PPP, 76.2%
RB: 45 catches, 13.49 EqPts, 0.30 PPP, 53.3%

K-State's only completed 23 fewer passes than Mizzou.  They pass the ball more than I thought they did, and I think that's good for Mizzou, even with a shaky safety.  Whatever prevents them from grinding the clock with James Johnson is fine by me.

Line Yards and Sack Rates (Offense)

I've made a tweak to this one.  Previously, I was breaking the sack rates out between 1st-2nd downs and 3rd-4th downs.  I played with the numbers and have now divided the sacks out between passing downs and non-passing downs.

Going by the % of times pass plays are run on given downs and distances (and going by the sack rates for those downs), here are the downs that are deemed "passing downs":

2nd-and-8 (or more)
3rd-and-5 (or more)
4th-and-5 (or more)

On 'passing downs', 70.0% of plays are passes, and they result in sacks 5.0% of the time.  On 'non-passing downs', only 45.4% of plays are passes, and they result in sacks only 3.4% of the time.

So with that in mind...

Line Yards: 360 carries, 1112.6 line yards, 3.09 LY/carry
Sack Rate (Non-Passing Downs): 272 pass attempts, 8 sacks, 2.94%
Sack Rate (Passing Downs): 167 pass attempts, 7 sacks 4.19%

Kansas State
Line Yards: 290 carries, 839.9 line yards, 2.90 LY/carry
Sack Rate (Non-Passing Downs): 277 pass attempts, 5 sacks, 1.81%
Sack Rate (Passing Downs): 161 pass attempts, 7 sacks, 4.35%

Line Yards and Sack Rates (Defense)

Line Yards: 310 carries, 887.8 line yards, 2.86 LY/carry
Sack Rate (Non-Passing Downs): 255 pass attempts, 9 sacks, 3.53%
Sack Rate (Passing Downs): 176 pass attempts, 12 sacks, 6.82%

Kansas State
Line Yards: 350 carries, 980.8 line yards, 2.80 LY/carry
Sack Rate (Non-Passing Downs): 221 pass attempts, 17 sacks, 7.69%
Sack Rate (Passing Downs): 148 pass attempts, 10 sacks, 6.76%

Game Key #5: Sacks.  It's the only way K-State stays in the game.  The Mizzou O-line had two breakdowns last week.  Overall, two isn't a bad number, but one of them was on third down, and the other caused a fumble.  KSU's DE corps is better than ATM's, so the MU OL had better come to play.

Defensive Success Rates (Mizzou)

Defensive Line
Tommy Chavis: 27.0 tackles, 19.0 successful (70.4%)
Stryker Sulak: 28.0 tackles, 18.5 successful (66.1%)
Ziggy Hood: 24.0 tackles, 17.0 successful (70.8%)
Lorenzo Williams: 16.0 tackles, 14.5 successful (90.6%)
Charles Gaines: 9.5 tackles, 7.5 successful (78.9%)
Jaron Baston: 6.0 tackles, 4.0 successful (66.7%)
Jaysen Corbett: 4.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (62.5%)
John Stull: 4.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (62.5%)
Tyler Crane: 1.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 120.0 tackles, 85.5 successful (71.3%)

Each week there's a new 'successful plays' leader here.  It was 'Zo, then it was Ziggy, now it's Chavis.  Mizzou now has four pretty-much-equal contributors on the line, and the impact on the defense has been quite noticeable.

Sean Weatherspoon: 65.5 tackles, 33.5 successful (51.1%)
Brock Christopher: 57.5 tackles, 31.5 successful (54.8%)
Van Alexander: 27.5 tackles, 14.5 successful (52.7%)
Luke Lambert: 5.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (50.0%)
Connell Davis: 1.0 tackles, 1.0 successful (100.0%)
Steve Redmond: 2.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 158.5 tackles, 83.0 successful (52.4%)

I realize part of the reason the LBs' success rate has gone down is because the DL is eating up a lot more of the tackles.  They played okay against ATM--Weatherspoon's "hold on and don't let go" tackle of Goodson was one of the two biggest plays of the game--but they'll need to play a bit better over the last 3-4 games of the season, especially since Pig Brown's absence in the secondary was so noticeable last week.

Defensive Backs
William Moore: 55.0 tackles, 23.0 successful (41.8%)
Pig Brown: 56.0 tackles, 19.5 successful (34.8%)
Castine Bridges: 28.0 tackles, 9.0 successful (32.1%)
Carl Gettis: 26.0 tackles, 8.0 successful (30.8%)
Justin Garrett: 18.0 tackles, 6.5 successful (36.1%)
Del Howard: 19.5 tackles, 5.0 successful (25.6%)
Hardy Ricks: 16.0 tackles, 4.5 successful (28.1%)
Darnell Terrell: 23.0 tackles, 3.5 successful (15.2%)
Paul Simpson: 8.0 tackles, 1.5 successful (18.8%)
TOTAL: 249.5 tackles, 80.5 successful (32.3%)

Game Key #6: Pig Brown's replacements.  Justin Garrett played pretty well against the run last week, but Del Howard had probably his worst performance as a Tiger.  He had a silly late hit penalty on McGee and missed at least two tackles that resulted in big gains.  KSU throws too much, but they throw better than ATM does, and Howard/Garrett (Deltin Garward?) will be tested again.

% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 22.7%
Linebackers: 30.0%
Defensive Backs: 47.3%

Defensive Success Rates (Kansas State)

Defensive Line
Eric Childs: 26.5 tackles, 17.5 successful (66.0%)
Ian Campbell: 24.5 tackles, 17.0 successful (69.4%)
Steven Cline: 18.5 tackles, 16.0 successful (86.5%)
Rob Jackson: 14.5 tackles, 13.0 successful (89.7%)
Moses Manu: 21.0 tackles, 12.5 successful (59.5%)
Brandon Balkcom: 13.0 tackles, 8.5 successful (65.4%)
Clayton Cox: 10.0 tackles, 8.0 successful (80.0%)
Chidubamu Abana: 2.0 tackles, 2.0 successful (100.0%)
Gabriel Crews: 1.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 131.0 tackles, 94.5 successful (72.1%)

Cline is out with a torn ACL, so Brandon Balkcom is carrying more of the load.  That's a good thing for Mizzou.

Justin Roland: 47.0 tackles, 30.5 successful (64.9%)
Reggie Walker: 40.5 tackles, 27.0 successful (66.7%)
John Houlik: 38.5 tackles, 21.0 successful (54.5%)
Marcus Perry: 8.5 tackles, 7.5 successful (88.2%)
Chris Patterson: 13.5 tackles, 5.5 successful (40.7%)
Ross Diehl: 3.0 tackles, 3.0 successful (100.0%)
Davyon McGhee: 3.0 tackles, 2.0 successful (66.7%)
Kevin Rohleder: 3.0 tackles, 1.0 successful (33.3%)
Chris Bamberger: 1.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 158.0 tackles, 97.5 successful (61.7%)

Defensive Backs
Justin McKinney: 50.0 tackles, 15.0 successful (30.0%)
Byron Garvin: 24.5 tackles, 13.5 successful (55.1%)
Gary Chandler: 24.0 tackles, 11.0 successful (45.8%)
Marcus Watts: 33.0 tackles, 10.5 successful (31.8%)
Courtney Herndon: 16.0 tackles, 10.0 successful (62.5%)
Chris Carney: 31.5 tackles, 9.0 successful (28.6%)
Antwon Moore: 4.5 tackles, 4.5 successful (100.0%)
Bryan Baldwin: 12.0 tackles, 4.0 successful (33.3%)
Ray Cheatham: 16.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (15.6%)
Andrew Erker: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 successful (22.7%)
Otis Johnson: 1.5 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
Kendrick Matthews: 1.0 tackles, 0.0 successful (0.0%)
TOTAL: 225.0 tackles, 82.5 successful (36.7%)

% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 25.5%
Linebackers: 30.7%
Defensive Backs: 43.8%

Turnover Costliness

Mizzou Offense
Total: 15 turnovers, 54.93 'costliness points' (3.66 avg)
Fumbles: 4 for 15.10 (3.78)
INTs: 11 for 39.83 (3.62)

Mizzou Defense
Total: 22 takeaways, 76.13 'costliness points' (3.46 avg)
Fumbles: 10 for 35.51 (3.55)
INTs: 12 for 40.62 (3.39)

Mizzou is +7 on turnovers and +21.20 in costliness.

K-State Offense
Total: 16 turnovers, 52.02 'costliness points' (3.25 avg)
Fumbles: 6 for 19.57 (3.26)
INTs: 10 for 32.45 (3.25)

K-State Defense
Total: 23 takeaways, 64.90 'costliness points' (2.82 avg)
Fumbles: 7 for 20.74 (2.96)
INTs: 16 for 44.16 (2.76)

K-State is +7 on turnovers and +12.88 in costliness.

Game Key #7: Since I don't have special teams listed on here, I'll just create a space for this one.  By my count, KSU has four kick/punt return TDs this year.  Their offense seems to get less explosive by the week, but their return game is all sorts of dangerous.  Be it Leon Patton or James Johnson returning kickoffs, or Jordy Nelson/Deon Murphy returning punts, they can all take it to the house.  Hopefully Nelson's minor injury last week means Murphy has PR duties.  He's dangerous, but he's also much more likely go have a return gone awry.  

Maybe KSU can't keep up with Mizzou offensively, but if they get free points from the return game, it could swing momentum pretty well.

Statistical MIPs

Mizzou Offense: I'm gonna go with the Heisman candidate this time.  It's all about Chase Daniel.  Senior Day means KSU will likely come out guns blazing, but they've been so ineffective recently that, as Bring On the Cats' TB said on RMN this morning, "if Mizzou can withstand the initial attempt at a haymaker we'll throw, it will probably be all over but the shouting."  In a tighter-than-expected game last week, Chase had the Mizzou offense unbelievably calm and collected in the fourth quarter.  As I mentioned yesterday, in the face of pressure, Mizzou had two 80-yard TD drives in the fourth quarter, facing only one third down in the process.  That's insane.  The offense has taken on his persona, and if he stays cool and minimizes the mistakes, this game is ours.

Mizzou Defense: Del Howard.  I mentioned how important it is to stop James Johnson, but it's more important to just stop the big play, period.  Whether it's a Johnson run or a Nelson reception, if Mizzou's last line of defense is sturdy (as it was with Pig Brown the first 2/3 of the season) and KSU has to make repeated quality plays to move down the field, Mizzou is in good shape.  If Howard misses a couple more tackles like he did last week, KSU could strike fast and make things interesting.

K-State Offense: I've alluded to it already, but it's gotta be James Johnson.  He's a solid kick returner and a pretty decent homerun threat, but it will be his ability to not only work the chains but also keep the pressure off of Josh Freeman, that could keep KSU in the game.

K-State Defense: Eric Childs and Ian Campbell share this one.  ATM's Alton Dixon single-handedly kept ATM in the game last week from a defensive perspective, and part of that success came from when he lit up Daniel and forced a fumble.  Meanwhile, K-State managed only two offensive TD's against Mizzou last year (despite roughly 900 rushing yards) but stayed in the game because Rob Jackson (honorable mention for MIP) nailed Daniel from behind on the first play of the game, and Zach Diles returned the resulting fumble for a TD.  The KSU LBs will likely be in coverage most of the game, so KSU and its likely 3-man front will need to generate pressure from the DE position to be successful.  Good luck with that.

Picks tomorrow!