Ho hum...another week, another Most Important Game in Mizzou History. Being that this game is a rematch, it's pretty easy to get stuck viewing this game as a repeat of that one, only with different players healthy. I've fallen into that trap many times this week. But it's still good to look at the overall picture to see what we might expect.
As always, let's start with the BCBS Glossary and go from there. And as always, I'll have Game Keys interspersed throughout.
Success Rates by Quarter
ALL PLAYS
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.0%, Opp 41.3%
Q2: MU 47.8%, Opp 40.7%
Q3: MU 56.4%, Opp 45.0%
Q4: MU 53.0%, Opp 47.3%
TOTAL: MU 51.8%, Opp 43.7% (+8.1%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 49.5%, Opp 35.9%
Q2: OU 54.9%, Opp 37.5%
Q3: OU 48.4%, Opp 40.7%
Q4: OU 42.1%, Opp 31.4%
TOTAL: OU 48.8%, Opp 36.7% (+12.1%)
Last Time
Q1: OU 62.5%, MU 35.7%
Q2: MU 40.0%, OU 37.5%
Q3: MU 61.5%, OU 46.7%
Q4: MU 52.6%, OU 50.0%
TOTAL: MU 49.4%, OU 49.3% (MU +0.1%)
Click 'Full Story' for more...much, much more...
CLOSE GAMES ONLY
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.0%, Opp 41.3%
Q2: MU 48.7%, Opp 38.0%
Q3: MU 62.9%, Opp 44.8%
Q4: MU 45.0%, Opp 45.0%
TOTAL: MU 51.3%, Opp 41.6% (+9.7%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 48.5%, Opp 36.3%
Q2: OU 53.9%, Opp 41.2%
Q3: OU 57.1%, Opp 50.0%
Q4: OU 40.4%, Opp 26.0%
TOTAL: OU 50.2%, Opp 38.2% (+12.0%)
CONFERENCE GAMES
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.6%, Opp 42.7%
Q2: MU 47.0%, Opp 37.2%
Q3: MU 58.4%, Opp 40.9%
Q4: MU 55.3%, Opp 47.0%
TOTAL: MU 52.7%, Opp 42.0% (+10.7%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 43.3%, Opp 39.7%
Q2: OU 53.1%, Opp 41.3%
Q3: OU 49.2%, Opp 47.2%
Q4: OU 40.4%, Opp 36.7%
TOTAL: OU 46.4%, Opp 41.6% (+4.8%)
CLOSE & CONFERENCE
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.6%, Opp 42.7%
Q2: MU 47.3%, Opp 38.0%
Q3: MU 63.0%, Opp 43.2%
Q4: Opp 49.3%, MU 48.2%
TOTAL: MU 52.0%, Opp 42.3% (+9.7%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 43.3%, Opp 39.7%
Q2: OU 52.7%, Opp 41.2%
Q3: OU 57.6%, Opp 53.7%
Q4: OU 40.4%, Opp 26.0%
TOTAL: OU 47.9%, Opp 40.0% (+7.9%)
Game Key #1: Fourth Quarter. If Mizzou is going to win, it would behoove them to be up more than 1 point heading into Q4 this time around. No matter which stats you look at, OU's defensive stats are best in the Q4 almost totally across the board. Q4 was also where the OU defense asserted itself once and for all in Norman on October 13. If the score is tight heading into the final 15 minutes, the Mizzou offense had better have it's A+ game ready.
RUN PLAYS (CONFERENCE)
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.8%, Opp 41.9%
Q2: MU 43.7%, Opp 31.3%
Q3: MU 53.8%, Opp 39.4%
Q4: Opp 57.5%, Opp 50.0%
TOTAL: MU 49.7%, Opp 41.7% (+8.0%)
Oklahoma
Q1: Opp 46.4%, OU 35.7%
Q2: OU 60.8%, Opp 35.1%
Q3: OU 54.4%, Opp 51.3%
Q4: OU 34.8%, Opp 26.4%
TOTAL: OU 46.1%, Opp 40.9% (+5.2%)
Last Time
Q1: OU 37.5%, MU 25.0%
Q2: OU 25.0%, MU 20.0%
Q3: MU 63.6%, OU 57.1%
Q4: OU 53.8%, MU 14.3%
TOTAL: OU 46.9%, MU 37.0% (OU +9.9%)
While a healthy Tony Temple could make a difference in the running game, I don't think he'll make that much of a difference. Mizzou's success will lie in the proficiency of a) Mizzou's passing game, and b) OU's pass rush. Anything we get from Temple will be icing. The bigger issue will be...
Game Key #2: OU Rushing Success Rate. As you'll see below, OU's passing game tends to tail off a bit after Q1, while the running game gets stronger. Mizzou's ability to defend the run saved them in the first half while the offense was trying to escape Auston English's clutches, but then the efficient power-running of Chris Brown carried OU home in the second half. The loss of Murray hurts OU, as you'll see in the numbers below, but Brown and Allen Patrick are more than capable of carrying a power-running attack. That style didn't work well for ATM or KU against Mizzou, and for Mizzou to be sitting pretty, it better not work well for OU either. If OU's run success rate is over 50%, Mizzou's in trouble.
PASS PLAYS (CONFERENCE)
Mizzou
Q1: MU 50.5%, Opp 43.5%
Q2: MU 49.5%, Opp 40.2%
Q3: MU 62.7%, Opp 42.2%
Q4: MU 63.3%, Opp 43.1%
TOTAL: MU 55.5%, Opp 42.2% (+13.3%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 52.6%, Opp 35.0%
Q2: Opp 45.7%, OU 43.9%
Q3: Opp 43.5%, OU 42.6%
Q4: OU 48.4%, Opp 44.0%
TOTAL: OU 48.7%, Opp 42.1% (+6.6%)
Last Time
Q1: OU 87.5%, MU 40.0%
Q2: MU 46.7%, OU 41.7%
Q3: MU 60.0%, OU 37.5%
Q4: MU 75.0%, OU 42.9%
TOTAL: MU 55.8%, OU 52.9% (MU +2.9%)
REDZONE
Mizzou
Q1: MU 61.8%, Opp 48.1%
Q2: MU 48.4%, Opp 38.2%
Q3: MU 58.3%, Opp 35.6%
Q4: MU 49.0%, Opp 45.3%
TOTAL: MU 54.2%, Opp 41.1% (+13.1%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 52.6%, Opp 39.1%
Q2: OU 59.6%, Opp 31.3%
Q3: OU 50.0%, Opp 50.0%
Q4: Opp 50.0%, OU 45.5%
TOTAL: OU 51.4%, Opp 41.4% (+10.0%)
Last Time
Q1: MU 100.0%, OU 62.5%
Q2: MU 100.0%, OU N/A
Q3: MU 80.0%, OU 50.0%
Q4: OU 83.3%, MU 66.7%
TOTAL: MU 81.8%, OU 68.8% (MU +13.0%)
VERSUS COMMON OPPONENTS
Mizzou
Q1: MU 51.8%, Opp 39.1%
Q2: MU 50.6%, Opp 36.8%
Q3: MU 52.2%, Opp 43.8%
Q4: MU 63.0%, Opp 43.7%
TOTAL: MU 54.2%, Opp 40.9% (+13.3%)
Oklahoma
Q1: Opp 35.5%, OU 32.2%
Q2: OU 49.3%, Opp 43.1%
Q3: OU 48.6%, Opp 41.3%
Q4: Opp 36.8%, OU 35.3%
TOTAL: OU 41.9%, Opp 39.1% (+2.8%)
This really is just baffling to me. The common opponents were Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Colorado. Some of the difference can be attributed to the fact that Mizzou played 3 of these 4 at home, while OU was on the road for 3 of 4. But that's still a strangely large differential.
PRESSURE SITUATIONS (i.e. 4th quarter and score within 8 points)
Mizzou
Q4: MU 52.1%, Opp 48.5% (+3.6%)
Oklahoma
Q4: OU 45.2%, Opp 30.6% (+14.6%)
Like I said, OU's got the Q4 advantage.
NON-PASSING DOWNS
Mizzou
Q1: MU 56.4%, Opp 47.4%
Q2: MU 46.4%, Opp 45.1%
Q3: MU 59.9%, Opp 49.4%
Q4: MU 59.4%, Opp 50.9%
TOTAL: MU 55.6%, Opp 48.3% (+7.3%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 55.8%, Opp 43.5%
Q2: OU 60.5%, Opp 39.6%
Q3: OU 51.9%, Opp 45.3%
Q4: OU 45.6%, Opp 40.2%
TOTAL: OU 53.7%, Opp 42.3% (+11.4%)
Last Time
Q1: OU 64.3%, MU 62.5%
Q2: OU 44.4%, MU 40.0%
Q3: MU 60.0%, OU 54.5%
Q4: MU 64.3%, OU 50.0%
TOTAL: MU 57.7%, OU 54.0% (MU +3.7%)
PASSING DOWNS
Mizzou
Q1: MU 31.7%, Opp 26.8%
Q2: MU 50.6%, Opp 31.5%
Q3: MU 46.9%, Opp 34.3%
Q4: Opp 39.7%, MU 36.9%
TOTAL: MU 42.3%, Opp 33.6% (+8.7%)
Oklahoma
Q1: OU 34.4%, Opp 23.0%
Q2: OU 38.6%, Opp 33.8%
Q3: OU 39.2%, Opp 31.2%
Q4: OU 34.3%, Opp 16.9%
TOTAL: OU 36.4%, Opp 26.6% (+9.8%)
Interesting splits here. The Mizzou offense is exceptional in passing downs (as I mentioned last week, I doubt there are too many teams in the country better), but they're pretty comparatively poor in defending passing downs. Meanwhile, OU's the opposite. Very average on offense in passing downs (which helps Mizzou's pass rush obviously), but very stout on defense.
Last Time
Q1: OU 50.0%, MU 0.0%
Q2: MU 40.0%, OU 28.6%
Q3: MU 66.7%, OU 25.0%
Q4: OU 50.0%, MU 20.0%
TOTAL: OU 35.3%, MU 33.3% (OU +2.0%)
NOVEMBER
Mizzou
Q1: MU 40.3%, Opp 37.5%
Q2: MU 46.5%, Opp 25.9%
Q3: MU 54.3%, Opp 46.6%
Q4: MU 59.0%, Opp 48.5%
TOTAL: MU 50.0%, Opp 40.1% (+9.9%)
Oklahoma
Q1: Opp 47.9%, OU 44.3%
Q2: OU 65.3%, Opp 41.3%
Q3: Opp 43.8%, OU 43.1%
Q4: OU 39.0%, Opp 34.5%
TOTAL: OU 48.1%, Opp 42.3% (+5.8%)
Success Rates by Down
ALL PLAYS
Mizzou
1st: MU 50.1%, Opp 44.4%
2nd: MU 52.3%, Opp 42.1%
3rd: MU 54.6%, Opp 43.2%
4th: MU 60.0%, Opp 56.5%
TOTAL: MU 51.8%, Opp 43.7%
Oklahoma
1st: OU 49.4%, Opp 38.0%
2nd: OU 47.4%, Opp 37.0%
3rd: OU 50.3%, Opp 32.1%
4th: Opp 55.6%, OU 43.8%
TOTAL: OU 48.8%, Opp 36.7%
Last Time
1st: OU 45.2%, MU 42.9%
2nd: MU 51.9%, OU 40.9%
3rd: OU 71.4%, MU 56.3%
4th: MU 100.0%, OU N/A
TOTAL: MU 49.4%, OU 49.3%
Last time, both teams did strangely well on third downs...made even more strange by the fact that they didn't do all that hot on 1st or 2nd downs...meaning both teams faced and converted some third-and-long's.
Now, one thing to notice in the below numbers is that Mizzou's defense improved across the board in November, while OU's regressed...due at least in part to Auston English's absence.
NOVEMBER
Mizzou
1st: MU 49.7%, Opp 37.5%
2nd: MU 51.3%, Opp 41.1%
3rd: MU 50.0%, Opp 40.6%
4th: Opp 100.0%, MU 33.3%
TOTAL: MU 50.0%, Opp 40.1%
Oklahoma
1st: OU 47.7%, Opp 42.4%
2nd: OU 48.9%, Opp 44.1%
3rd: OU 48.1%, Opp 37.9%
4th: Opp 60.0%, OU 42.9%
TOTAL: OU 48.1%, Opp 42.3%
QB Success Rates and PPP (CONFERENCE ONLY)
Chase Daniel
Run: 50.7%, 0.34 PPP
Pass: 56.2%, 0.51 PPP
Total: 53.7%, 0.43 PPP
Sam Bradford
Run: 46.2%, 0.33 PPP
Pass: 50.8%, 0.56 PPP
Total: 48.1%, 0.42 PPP
Run Success Rates and PPP
Mizzou
Tony Temple: 149 carries, 48.75 EqPts, 0.33 PPP, 41.6% SR
Chase Daniel: 75 carries, 27.97 EqPts, 0.37 PPP, 52.0%
Jimmy Jackson: 61 carries, 24.48 EqPts, 0.40 PPP, 57.4%
Jeremy Maclin: 42 carries, 23.14 EqPts, 0.55 PPP, 57.1%
Derrick Washington: 33 carries, 12.32 EqPts, 0.37 PPP, 60.6%
Martin Rucker: 14 carries, 5.30 EqPts, 0.38 PPP, 57.1%
TOTAL: 424 carries, 154.13 EqPts, 0.36 PPP, 50.9%
Oklahoma
Demarco Murray (inj.): 127 carries, 60.33 EqPts, 0.48 PPP, 52.8%
Allen Patrick: 145 carries, 51.56 EqPts, 0.36 PPP, 45.5%
Chris Brown: 119 carries, 35.01 EqPts, 0.29 PPP, 51.3%
Mossis Madu: 35 carries, 13.23 EqPts, 0.38 PPP, 31.4%
Juaquin Iglesias: 8 carries, 6.44 EqPts, 0.81 PPP, 62.5%
Jacob Gutierrez: 10 carries, 4.58 EqPts, 0.46 PPP, 60.0%
Sam Bradford: 15 carries, 4.01 EqPts, 0.27 PPP, 46.7%
TOTAL: 467 carries, 175.73 EqPts, 0.38 PPP, 48.0%
TOTAL (sans Murray): 340 carries, 115.40 EqPts, 0.34 PPP, 46.2%
Receiver Success Rates and PPP
Mizzou
Jeremy Maclin: 70 catches, 64.87 EqPts, 0.93 PPP, 82.9%
Martin Rucker: 75 catches, 50.82 EqPts, 0.68 PPP, 82.7%
Will Franklin: 42 catches, 39.46 EqPts, 0.94 PPP, 83.3%
Chase Coffman: 51 catches, 37.02 EqPts, 0.73 PPP, 88.2%
Danario Alexander: 37 catches, 23.15 EqPts, 0.63 PPP, 64.9%
Tommy Saunders: 35 catches, 19.32 EqPts, 0.55 PPP, 80.0%
Jared Perry: 13 catches, 9.63 EqPts, 0.74 PPP, 84.6%
Tony Temple: 7 catches, 6.19 EqPts, 0.88 PPP, 57.1%
Derrick Washington: 9 catches, 5.30 EqPts, 0.59 PPP, 66.7%
TOTAL: 360 catches, 265.76 EqPts, 0.74 PPP, 79.2%
Oklahoma
Malcolm Kelly: 45 catches, 55.19 EqPts, 1.23 PPP, 88.9%
Juaquin Iglesias: 57 catches, 46.91 EqPts, 0.82 PPP, 84.2%
Jermaine Gresham: 32 catches, 40.29 EqPts, 1.26 PPP, 81.3%
Manuel Johnson: 26 catches, 28.12 EqPts, 1.08 PPP, 84.6%
Joe Jon Finley: 17 catches, 18.40 EqPts, 1.08 PPP, 76.5%
Adron Tennell (inj.): 5 catches, 7.83 EqPts, 1.57 PPP, 80.0%
Quentin Chaney: 4 catches, 4.77 EqPts, 1.19 PPP, 75.0%
Chris Brown: 8 catches, 4.34 EqPts, 0.54 PPP, 75.0%
Allen Patrick: 8 catches, 4.18 EqPts, 0.52 PPP, 50.0%
TOTAL: 231 catches, 221.78 EqPts, 0.96 PPP, 78.8%
Game Key #3: Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson. Mizzou has been absolutely phenomenal at taking away a team's #1 receiving threat, and while Iglesias has more catches than Malcolm Kelly, there no doubt who the big play threat is. However, a team with solid #2 or #3 (or #4, for that matter) threats can do some damage. I guess I should throw the TEs in here too, but it hasn't been TEs doing damage against the Mizzou pass defense. Last time these two teams played, Iglesias and Johnson had a pretty strong day, Iglesias as a 'possession receiver' type (7 catches, 4.47 EqPts, 0.64 PPP) and Johnson as more of a downfield thread (2 catches, 1.99 EqPts, 1.00 PPP). OU will need them to keep the chains moving again on Saturday.
Line Yards and Sack Rates (OFFENSE)
Mizzou
Line Yards: 435 carries, 1307.4 line yards (3.01 LY/carry)
Sack Rates (Non-Passing Downs): 326 attempts, 10 sacks (3.1%)
Sack Rates (Passing Downs): 207 attempts, 9 sacks (4.3%)
Oklahoma
Line Yards: 479 carries, 1405.1 line yards (2.93 LY/carry)
Sack Rates (Non-Passing Downs): 199 attempts, 4 sacks (2.0%)
Sack Rates (Passing Downs): 154 attempts, 7 sacks (4.5%)
Lost amid the hubbub about Sam Bradford's concussion was how the concussion came to be. Bradford was handing the ball to Allen Patrick, but the OU O-line got blown up so badly on the play that Patrick was already trying to make a move before he had secured the ball. Patrick fumbled, Bradford got concussed, et cetera. That single play more-or-less knocked OU out of the running for the national title, and poor blocking was at the heart of it. While OU's offensive sack rate has been just fine, 2.93 LY/carry is not what I expected from this unit, especially with such capable RBs in the backfield. Actually, allow me to quote, uhh, myself, from my last OU-MU BTBS preview:
OU’s rushing attack relies on home runs. They average 200+ yards per game, and Allen Patrick and Demarco Murray both average well over 6 yards a carry...but they only average 2.63 line yards per carry.
...
In other words, limit the homeruns, and you severely handicap the OU offense. Make them drive the length of the field--their running game isn’t amazingly consistent, and they may find it hard to sustain drives. In my mind, this puts a lot of pressure on William Moore and Pig Brown to make sure that when an RB breaks through the line, he only gets 10 or 12 yards instead of 60.
Now, OU lost its best homerun hitter (Murray), but MU lost its best homerun stopper (Pig), and Deltin Garward* has left something to be desired so far. James Johnson and the KU WR's proved that it's possible to get big chunks of yards at once on the MU defense, and I'll be interested to see what (if any) scheme adjustments Matt Eberflus makes. Which, I guess, brings us to...
Game Key #4: Mizzou cannot allow the homerun. Short, sweet.
Line Yards and Sack Rates (DEFENSE)
Mizzou
Line Yards: 358 carries, 1036.4 line yards (2.89 LY/carry)
Sack Rates (Non-Passing Downs): 313 attempts, 13 sacks (4.2%)
Sack Rates (Passing Downs): 214 attempts, 14 sacks (6.5%)
Oklahoma
Line Yards: 362 carries, 852.7 line yards (2.36 LY/carry)
Sack Rates (Non-Passing Downs): 256 attempts, 9 sacks (3.5%)
Sack Rates (Passing Downs): 204 attempts, 20 sacks (9.8%)
Defensive Success Rates (Mizzou) (CONFERENCE PLAY)
Defensive Line
Stryker Sulak: 25.0 tackles, 16.5 successful (66.0%)
Tommy Chavis: 21.0 tackles, 15.5 successful (73.8%)
Ziggy Hood: 17.0 tackles, 11.5 successful (67.6%)
Lorenzo Williams: 11.0 tackles, 9.5 successful (86.4%)
Charles Gaines: 8.5 tackles, 6.5 successful (76.5%)
Jaron Baston: 6.0 tackles, 4.0 successful (66.7%)
TOTAL: 94.5 tackles, 67.5 successful (71.4%)
Linebackers
Sean Weatherspoon: 55.5 tackles, 29.5 successful (53.2%)
Brock Christopher: 35.5 tackles, 19.0 successful (53.5%)
Van Alexander: 20.5 tackles, 10.0 successful (48.8%)
TOTAL: 115.5 tackles, 60.5 successful (52.4%)
Defensive Backs
William Moore: 42.0 tackles, 19.0 successful (45.2%)
Pig Brown (inj.): 30.5 tackles, 11.5 successful (37.7%)
Castine Bridges: 33.5 tackles, 9.0 successful (26.9%)
Carl Gettis: 18.0 tackles, 8.5 successful (47.2%)
Justin Garrett: 18.0 tackles, 6.5 successful (36.1%)
Darnell Terrell: 20.5 tackles, 6.0 successful (29.3%)
Del Howard: 17.5 tackles, 5.5 successful (31.4%)
Paul Simpson: 6.5 tackles, 1.0 successful (15.4%)
TOTAL: 188.0 tackles, 67.0 successful (35.6%)
TOTAL (without Pig): 157.5 tackles, 55.5 successful (35.2%)
Game Key #5: Mizzou's DB success rate. William Moore has taken his game to a new level since Pig Brown got hurt, but even with Pig, Mizzou's DB success rate was 22.4% against OU the first time around. Be it Moore or anybody else, the secondary needs to make some plays. They succeeded in avoiding the long ball last time, but OU's 3rd-down conversion rate was through the roof.
Now, part of the DBs' poor success rate was the fact that OU's offense is based on more downfield throws than a lot of the spread offenses you see nowadays. That usually results in lower completion %'s and higher YPC (or PPP). In other words, when an OU receiver catches the ball, he's likely already past the 'success' marker. So chances are, MU's DB success rate will be lower than normal anyway. That's fine. It just needs to be in the 25-30% range instead of 22%.
% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 23.7%
Linebackers: 29.0%
Defensive Backs: 47.2%
Defensive Success Rates (Oklahoma) (CONFERENCE PLAY)
Defensive Line
Auston English (inj.): 16.0 tackles, 14.0 successful (87.5%)
Demarcus Granger: 13.5 tackles, 10.0 successful (74.1%)
Gerald McCoy: 11.0 tackles, 9.5 successful (86.4%)
Alonzo Dotson: 10.0 tackles, 8.0 successful (80.0%)
Jeremy Beal: 8.5 tackles, 7.0 successful (82.4%)
Alan Davis: 14.0 tackles, 6.0 successful (42.9%)
TOTAL: 80.5 tackles, 60.5 successful (75.2%)
TOTAL (without English): 64.5 tackles, 46.5 successful (72.1%)
Game Key #6: the OU DL's total successful plays. With as many times as I've mentioned English's name in the last week, you knew this one was coming. OU shut Mizzou out for about 25 minutes of the first half last time they played. They did it by rushing 3 and dropping 8...and (unlike any other Mizzou opponent) still getting pressure on Chase Daniel. English was in Daniel's face all evening, plus he tipped at least two passes that I can remember. He was a beast, and his status is uncertain. Whether he plays or not, he will be far from 100%, and OU will need to figure out how to avoid allowing Chase to get comfortable. When Chase is comfortable (as he was against KU), you could drop 18 guys into coverage, and he would still find an open receiver almost every time. The OU DL needs to make some plays, otherwise the DBs and LBs (who are phenomenal at stopping plodding, physical offenses but are less comfortable at defending a spread this season--see the numbers Tulsa, Mizzou, and Tech put up against them) will have too much responsibility and will eventually crumble.
Linebackers
Curtis Lofton: 70.5 tackles, 40.0 successful (56.7%)
Lewis Baker: 41.0 tackles, 16.5 successful (40.2%)
Ryan Reynolds: 25.0 tackles, 15.0 successful (60.0%)
TOTAL: 138.5 tackles, 73.5 successful (53.1%)
Defensive Backs
Nic Harris: 39.5 tackles, 21.0 successful (53.2%)
Reggie Smith: 42.5 tackles, 14.5 successful (34.1%)
D.J. Wolfe: 38.5 tackles, 13.0 successful (33.8%)
Lendy Holmes: 39.0 tackles, 10.5 successful (26.9%)
Marcus Walker: 20.5 tackles, 8.0 successful (39.0%)
TOTAL: 184.0 tackles, 68.0 successful (37.0%)
% of plays made by...
Defensive Line: 20.0%
Linebackers: 34.4%
Defensive Backs: 45.7%
Turnover Costliness
Mizzou Offense
Fumbles Lost: 4 for 15.10 'costliness points' (3.77 avg)
INTs: 11 for 39.83 points (3.62 avg)
TOTAL: 15 for 54.93 points (3.66 avg)
Mizzou Defense
Fumbles Recovered: 12 for 40.74 points (3.39 avg)
INTs: 15 for 51.09 points (3.41 avg)
TOTAL: 27 for 91.82 points (3.40 avg)
Mizzou is +12 in turnovers (+1.0 per game) and +36.89 in costliness points (+3.07 pts per game)
Oklahoma Offense
Fumbles Lost: 11 for 29.04 points (2.64 avg)
INTs: 8 for 22.88 points (2.86 avg)
TOTAL: 19 for 51.92 points (2.73 avg)
Oklahoma Defense
Fumbles Recovered: 9 for 33.38 points (3.71 avg)
INTs: 18 for 66.38 points (3.69 avg)
TOTAL: 27 for 99.76 points (3.69 avg)
Oklahoma is +8 in turnovers (+0.7 per game) and +47.84 in costliness points (+3.99 points per game).
Game Key #7: turnovers. Another no-brainer. I've talked about "EqPts Scores" a few times now. Basically this consists of two parts: 1) the tallied "scores" of each offense's plays according to the Points Per Play figures I've used many times, and 2) turnover costliness. On October 13, Mizzou tallied up 27.71 "points" to OU's 27.65. It was basically dead-even in that department. However, OU had a 9.32-point advantage in turnover costliness. That was ballgame. That absolutely cannot happen again.
Last week, I said that turnovers were important because KU lives off of them. This week it's important because MU died off of them against OU last time. OU can pretend to be offended by Mizzou saying that turnovers killed them and that they could have won the game otherwise, but...uhh, it's 100000% true. Power to OU for forcing those turnovers (granted, they didn't force the Daniel/Maclin fumble), but turnovers really were the difference.
Statistical MIPs
Mizzou Offense: Chase Coffman. Put as simply as possible, if OU's pass rush isn't strong, and Chase Daniel has all of his weapons at his disposal, you're going to have to put up an insane amount of points to beat Mizzou. Mizzou can win without Coffman (they did last week, for the most part), but here's to hoping they don't have to.
Mizzou Defense: Deltin Garward*. This two-headed Pig Brown replacement absolutely positively must play better than he/they did last week against Kansas. Almost every medium-range and long pass that KU completed went to whoever was matched up with Garward, and if KU was able to take advantage of it, you know OU will be ready to as well. If Garward is ineffective, then don't be surprised if Hardy Ricks works his way into the rotation...then again, I don't have any recent proof that Ricks is actually still on the team. Haven't heard his name since Illinois State.
Oklahoma Offense: Last time around, Chris Brown had a tremendously important game against Mizzou. Allen Patrick was hobbling and Demarco Murray was completely ineffective, so the Sooners turned to Brown. He's not much of a homerun threat, but he moves the chains, and his tough running (61.5% success rate...77.8% in the second half) carried the offense when the passing game trailed off (40.7% success rate after Q1). However, it's probably Patrick who will be carrying the load this time after his huge game against OSU last week. OU is average in passing downs, and the downfield passing game relies a lot on the running game eating up yards. Be it Patrick or Brown, somebody's got to run efficiently enough for the passing game to be totally effective, especially if OU isn't able to generate a pass rush and MU is putting some points on the board.
Oklahoma Defense: DEs Alan Davis and Jeremy Beal. With English limited at best, these two (Alemy Bevis?), along with Alonzo Dotson, will need to figure out how to generate pressure because, as has been proven in almost every game for the last two seasons, if you have to blitz Chase, you're probably going to get roasted.
*: Justin Garrett and Del Howard