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Beyond the Box Score: Rankings and Predictions

This is a follow-up of last week's VOA/EqPts discussion, as I tinkered with ways to rank Big 12 teams and make predictions.  After a week of a) major overachievement by Kansas, b) major overachievement by Missouri, and c) major underachievement by Kansas State, the rankings have changed.

Click 'Full Story' for more.

I'm going to roll through this pretty quickly.  If you have any questions, leave a comment, and I'll respond with far more words than you wish to read.

Last Week's Games

Kansas State at Iowa State
EqPts: ISU 25.38, KSU 21.90
Actual: ISU 31, KSU 20
Prediction: KSU 34, ISU 17 (whoops)

Missouri at Colorado
EqPts: MU 47.14, CU 6.28
Actual: MU 45, CU 10
Prediction: MU 28, CU 23 (double whoops)

Nebraska at Kansas
EqPts: KU 59.78, NU 26.13
Actual: KU 76, NU 39
Prediction: KU 34, NU 17 (whoops)

Texas A&M at Oklahoma
EqPts: OU 35.22, A&M 16.03
Actual: OU 42, A&M 14
Prediction: OU 24, A&M 17 (whoops)

Texas at Oklahoma State
EqPts: OSU 39.62, UT 30.89
Actual: UT 38, OSU 35
Prediction: OSU 31, UT 30 (not awful)

Texas Tech at Baylor
EqPts: Tech 40.10, BU 14.29
Actual: Tech 38, BU 7
Prediction: Tech 36, BU 17 (not bad)

Okay, so I'm still working on the 'predictions' aspect of all this.

Conference Averages

Baylor
EqPts: Opponents 35.6, Baylor 13.2
Actual: Opponents 42.5, Baylor 12.2

Colorado
EqPts: Opponents 29.0, Colorado 19.8
Actual: Opponents 30.7, Colorado 24.2

Iowa State
EqPts: Opponents 29.0, Iowa State 18.0
Actual: Opponents 35.3, Iowa State 17.2

Kansas
EqPts: Kansas 34.8, Opponents 17.2
Actual: Kansas 40.4, Opponents 19.6

Kansas State
EqPts: K-State 29.6, Opponents 22.3
Actual: K-State 37.0, Opponents 26.0

Missouri
EqPts: Missouri 33.9, Opponents 18.3
Actual: Missouri 40.0, Opponents 19.0

Nebraska
EqPts: Opponents 37.5, Nebraska 21.9
Actual: Opponents 40.5, Nebraska 22.2

Oklahoma
EqPts: Oklahoma 26.6, Opponents 18.9
Actual: Oklahoma 30.4, Opponents 20.0

Oklahoma State
EqPts: Oklahoma State 36.9, Opponents 30.3
Actual: Oklahoma State 38.6, Opponents 32.0

Texas
EqPts: Texas 29.0, Opponents 22.5
Actual: Texas 32.5, Opponents 23.7

Texas A&M
EqPts: Opponents 24.9, Texas A&M 24.1
Actual: Opponents 23.8, Texas A&M 21.0

Texas Tech
EqPts: Texas Tech 31.5, Opponents 26.1
Actual: Texas Tech 32.7, Opponents 25.3

Offensive VOA Rankings
Oklahoma State (141.6)
Missouri (122.2)
Kansas (114.7)
Oklahoma (114.5)
Texas Tech (112.4)
Kansas State (109.6)
Texas (100.9)
Nebraska (95.6)
Texas A&M (86.4)
Colorado (85.5)
Iowa State (78.7)
Baylor (53.5...ugh)

Defensive VOA Rankings
Kansas (131.2)
Oklahoma (127.9)
Missouri (126.9)
Kansas State (110.0)
Texas (110.0)
Texas A&M (108.9)
Iowa State (97.3)
Texas Tech (93.6)
Oklahoma State (92.0)
Colorado (90.7)
Nebraska (79.1)
Baylor (77.8)

COMBINED RANKINGS
Missouri (249.1)
Kansas (245.9)
Oklahoma (242.5)
Oklahoma State (233.6)
Kansas State (219.6)
Texas (210.9)
Texas Tech (206.0)
Texas A&M (195.3)
Colorado (176.2)
Iowa State (176.0)
Nebraska (174.7)
Baylor (131.2)

OSU's obviously too high here--though their performances have dictated a pretty high standing...it's just their finishing that leaves something to be desired--but the rest looks pretty decent.  Kansas State fell from #2 to #5, and a mediocre performance in Lincoln could drop them down to about where they belong.  This system definitely likes the "scores in bunches" teams like MU, OSU, and KSU...that's for sure.

This Week's Predictions

Oklahoma 35, Baylor 9
Iowa State 23, Colorado 21
Kansas 34, Oklahoma State 31
Kansas State 34, Nebraska 24
Missouri 35, Texas A&M 17
Texas 31, Texas Tech 26