What else happened last Saturday?
Kansas
|
|
Oklahoma
|
|
% Close = 85.2%
|
|
37.3% |
Field Position % *
|
62.7% |
73.6% |
Leverage % **
|
71.1% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
72 |
Plays |
97 |
31.36 |
EqPts |
44.31 |
48.6% |
Success Rate |
49.5% |
0.44 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.46 |
0.922 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.952 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
58 |
Plays |
86 |
25.30 |
EqPts |
43.34 |
53.4% |
Success Rate |
52.3% |
0.44 |
PPP |
0.50 |
0.971 |
S&P |
1.027 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
10.86 |
EqPts |
15.07 |
60.0% |
Success Rate |
43.2% |
0.43 |
PPP |
0.34 |
1.034 |
S&P |
0.774 |
3.74 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.81 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
20.51 |
EqPts |
29.24 |
42.6% |
Success Rate |
54.7% |
0.44 |
PPP |
0.55 |
0.862 |
S&P |
1.099 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
62.3% |
Success Rate |
53.6% |
0.56 |
PPP |
0.52 |
1.181 |
S&P |
1.060 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
10.5% |
Success Rate |
39.3% |
0.09 |
PPP |
0.29 |
0.198 |
S&P |
0.684 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
2 |
Number |
0 |
6.49 |
Points Lost |
0.00 |
1.92 |
Points Given |
0.00 |
8.41 |
Total T/O Pts |
0.00 |
-8.41 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+8.41 |
|
|
|
1.029 |
Q1 S&P |
1.034 |
0.134 |
Q2 S&P |
0.932 |
0.805 |
Q3 S&P |
1.208 |
0.719 |
Q4 S&P |
0.606 |
|
|
|
1.244 |
1st Down S&P |
1.205 |
0.617 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.739 |
0.513 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.648 |
- I think if Mizzou and Kansas played this Saturday, Kansas would win. There, I said it. But I'm confident that Mizzou will rediscover its mojo in the next month. Now, if we beat Colorado something like 17-16, that all changes.
- Kansas did a strong job of keeping the OU defense on its heels, doing quite well on Non-Passing Downs (particularly 1st downs), both running and throwing; but they had almost no success whatsoever in Passing Downs.
- OU's offense was by all means solid, but their prodigious output had as much to do with running 97 plays as anything else. They too were not tremendous on Passing Downs, but the game was decided by the fact that they still converted 39% of Passing Downs, to KU's 10%.
- 3.74 line yards per carry for Kansas? Really? The Kansas that couldn't run the ball? Against the OU defense that doesn't allow you to run the ball? Ryan Reynolds = OU's most valuable player. Luckily for them, they were still able to out-athlete KU.
Baylor
|
|
Okla St
|
|
% Close = 53.7%
|
|
29.6% |
Field Position % *
|
70.4% |
55.2% |
Leverage % **
|
80.8% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
58 |
Plays |
78 |
11.15 |
EqPts |
34.38 |
31.0% |
Success Rate |
51.3% |
0.19 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.44 |
0.503 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.954 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
28 |
Plays |
45 |
6.76 |
EqPts |
22.13 |
25.0% |
Success Rate |
60.0% |
0.24 |
PPP |
0.49 |
0.491 |
S&P |
1.092 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
3.79 |
EqPts |
18.52 |
24.1% |
Success Rate |
49.1% |
0.13 |
PPP |
0.32 |
0.372 |
S&P |
0.816 |
1.30 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.98 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
7.36 |
EqPts |
15.87 |
37.9% |
Success Rate |
57.1% |
0.25 |
PPP |
0.76 |
0.633 |
S&P |
1.327 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
34.4% |
Success Rate |
58.7% |
0.17 |
PPP |
0.43 |
0.518 |
S&P |
1.019 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
26.9% |
Success Rate |
20.0% |
0.22 |
PPP |
0.48 |
0.484 |
S&P |
0.678 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
1 |
2.38 |
Points Lost |
3.78 |
1.61 |
Points Given |
1.58 |
3.99 |
Total T/O Pts |
5.36 |
-1.37 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+1.37 |
|
|
|
0.648 |
Q1 S&P |
0.882 |
0.089 |
Q2 S&P |
1.231 |
0.624 |
Q3 S&P |
0.769 |
0.495 |
Q4 S&P |
0.761 |
|
|
|
0.297 |
1st Down S&P |
1.040 |
0.787 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.948 |
0.578 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.711 |
- Another fantastic defensive gameplan from the Cowboys. OSU loaded up against the run, neutralized Robert Griffin's legs, and continuously forced Baylor into Passing Downs. That's easier said than done. With five games remaining, this guy gets my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Seriously, a 55% leverage rate is about as bad as it gets. Well done, Tim Beckman.
- It appears that Baylor loaded up against the run as well, allowing Dez Bryant to go off.
Tech
|
|
ATM
|
|
% Close = 98.6%
|
|
61.1% |
Field Position % *
|
38.9% |
81.0% |
Leverage % **
|
71.4% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
79 |
Plays |
63 |
39.29 |
EqPts |
18.43 |
63.3% |
Success Rate |
44.4% |
0.50 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.29 |
1.130 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.737 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
same |
Plays |
61 |
same |
EqPts |
18.00 |
same |
Success Rate |
44.3% |
same |
PPP |
0.30 |
same |
S&P |
0.738 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
10.74 |
EqPts |
5.01 |
65.2% |
Success Rate |
36.8% |
0.47 |
PPP |
0.26 |
1.119 |
S&P |
0.632 |
3.40 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.23 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
28.55 |
EqPts |
13.42 |
62.5% |
Success Rate |
47.7% |
0.51 |
PPP |
0.31 |
1.135 |
S&P |
0.782 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
65.6% |
Success Rate |
46.7% |
0.48 |
PPP |
0.29 |
1.140 |
S&P |
0.754 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
53.3% |
Success Rate |
38.9% |
0.56 |
PPP |
0.30 |
1.091 |
S&P |
0.693 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
3 |
Number |
1 |
6.93
|
Points Lost |
0.00 |
7.08 |
Points Given |
3.89 |
14.01 |
Total T/O Pts |
3.89 |
-10.12 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+10.12 |
|
|
|
1.101 |
Q1 S&P |
0.918 |
1.372 |
Q2 S&P |
0.846 |
1.018 |
Q3 S&P |
0.368 |
1.100 |
Q4 S&P |
0.401 |
|
|
|
1.092 |
1st Down S&P |
0.707 |
0.986 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.801 |
1.554 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.694 |
- This was a 'close game' until the final two plays.
- Smoke, mirrors and turnovers kept ATM in this game. Even in the first half, when they were scoring in buckets, their S&P figures were only above average. Part of that has to do with good field position, part with the fact that they continuously struggled in the redzone.
- Consistency, thy name is the Texas Tech offense and its per-quarter stats.
- Ridiculousness, thy name is the Texas Tech offense on 3rd downs.
- Check out Tech's rushing stats. I've mentioned this many, many times now, but if Tech ran the ball for 19 straight plays, defenses would still be playing the pass on play #20. They have no excuse for ever having a rushing S&P under 1.000. It's like free money.
K-State
|
|
Colorado
|
|
% Close = 100.0%
|
|
41.5% |
Field Position % *
|
58.5% |
56.3% |
Leverage % **
|
63.4% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
64 |
Plays |
82 |
18.20 |
EqPts |
18.85 |
35.9% |
Success Rate |
36.6% |
0.28 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.23 |
0.644 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.596 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
same |
Plays |
same |
same |
EqPts |
same |
same |
Success Rate |
same |
same |
PPP |
same |
same |
S&P |
same |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
6.95 |
EqPts |
12.94 |
50.0% |
Success Rate |
40.0% |
0.32 |
PPP |
0.24 |
0.816 |
S&P |
0.635 |
3.01 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.79 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
11.24 |
EqPts |
5.90 |
28.6% |
Success Rate |
29.6% |
0.27 |
PPP |
0.22 |
0.553 |
S&P |
0.515 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
52.8% |
Success Rate |
42.3% |
0.39 |
PPP |
0.26 |
0.921 |
S&P |
0.684 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
14.3% |
Success Rate |
26.7% |
0.14 |
PPP |
0.18 |
0.287 |
S&P |
0.443 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
2 |
Number |
2 |
3.66 |
Points Lost |
4.18 |
5.35 |
Points Given |
3.10 |
9.01 |
Total T/O Pts |
7.28 |
-1.73 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+1.73 |
|
|
|
0.646 |
Q1 S&P |
0.544 |
0.270 |
Q2 S&P |
0.872 |
1.017 |
Q3 S&P |
0.460 |
0.713 |
Q4 S&P |
0.487 |
|
|
|
0.982 |
1st Down S&P |
0.657 |
0.324 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.538 |
0.365 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.551 |
- As TB so eloquently put it, there was really no silver lining for KSU in this game. They held a bad offense in check, which is technically better than the alternative, but the fact that 14 points was enough to get CU the win is embarrassing. CU played well offensively for two series in Q2, and that was enough to bring home the W.
- If you're that good on first downs (KSU had a 0.982 S&P) and that bad on 2nd and 3rd downs, to me that screams "BAD PLAYCALLING". You had makeable 2nd and 3rd downs all night, and you sucked at them. This guy most certainly will NOT get my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Something called a "Logan Dold" was KSU's main RB, and considering a) KSU's very solid Line Yard average and b) KSU's very average overall rushing statistics, I'm thinking the O-line blocked alright, but Mr. Dold did not pass the test. But you probably already gathered that from his "13 carries, 47 yards" line.
- Crapsistency, thy name is the Colorado offense by down.
Nebraska
|
|
Iowa State
|
|
% Close = 80.5%
|
|
67.2% |
Field Position % *
|
32.8% |
79.7% |
Leverage % **
|
57.4% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
79 |
Plays |
54 |
34.77 |
EqPts |
11.36 |
57.0% |
Success Rate |
31.5% |
0.44 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.21 |
1.010 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.525 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
67 |
Plays |
40 |
25.19 |
EqPts |
4.79 |
55.2% |
Success Rate |
35.0% |
0.38 |
PPP |
0.12 |
0.928 |
S&P |
0.470 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
17.19 |
EqPts |
7.28 |
51.3% |
Success Rate |
39.1% |
0.44 |
PPP |
0.32 |
0.954 |
S&P |
0.708 |
3.52 |
Line Yards/carry
|
1.85 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
17.58 |
EqPts |
4.08 |
62.5% |
Success Rate |
25.8% |
0.44 |
PPP |
0.13 |
1.065 |
S&P |
0.390 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
61.9% |
Success Rate |
38.7% |
0.49 |
PPP |
0.25 |
1.113 |
S&P |
0.633 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
37.5% |
Success Rate |
21.7% |
0.23 |
PPP |
0.16 |
0.601 |
S&P |
0.380 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
3 |
Number |
2 |
7.30 |
Points Lost |
5.03 |
5.79 |
Points Given |
4.34 |
13.09 |
Total T/O Pts |
9.37 |
-3.72 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+3.72 |
|
|
|
0.803 |
Q1 S&P |
0.453 |
1.390 |
Q2 S&P |
0.221 |
0.401 |
Q3 S&P |
0.893 |
1.156 |
Q4 S&P |
0.255 |
|
|
|
1.201 |
1st Down S&P |
0.625 |
0.745 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.528 |
0.902 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.296 |
- Yup, it's looking more and more like ISU shot its wad two weeks ago against Kansas. After laying an egg against Baylor, they followed that up with an equally eggy performance at home against the Huskers. Serves me right for picking ISU, I guess.
- Your stat of the game: 3rd Down S&P. NU = 0.902. ISU = 0.296. Ballgame.
- Your stat of the game runner-up: Passing S&P. NU = 1.065. ISU = 0.390.
- The only critique I have of Nebraska is simply that, with these dominant numbers, the game shouldn't have stayed 'close' for so long (it was 21-7 well into the second half). They should have put it away earlier.
Later in the week, we'll look at each team's overall conference averages.
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