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Some BCS BTBS rankings for you...

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Since I finished both my Varsity Numbers column (due out later today!) and my play-by-play entry early this week, I have some time to spit out some rankings for you...I can just feel how excited you are.

Now, I've only kept up with entering play-by-play for the games involving BCS-conference teams, so that's all you'll see here.  Sorry, Tulsa.

And because the Big 12 vs SEC debate is still going on, I'll bold the Big 12 teams and italicize the SEC teams.

Offensive S&P (all plays) - Top 10 BCS Teams

  1. Missouri (1.098)
  2. Texas Tech (1.078)
  3. USC (1.048)
  4. Texas (1.030)
  5. Oklahoma State (1.026)
  6. Penn State (1.018)
  7. Oklahoma (0.990)
  8. Nebraska (0.921)
  9. Illinois (0.921)
  10. Arizona! (0.918)

Offensive S&P (all plays) - Bottom 5 BCS Teams

  1. Washington State (0.534)
  2. Auburn (0.580)
  3. Mississippi State (0.593)
  4. N.C. State (0.619)
  5. Wake Forest (0.624)

Just thought I'd point out that Missouri's defense has had to take on 4 of the Top 10 offenses on that list.  Now, in Illinois' case, part of the reason they cracked the Top 10 was because of the game they had against Missouri, but still...they wouldn't have gotten that high if Missouri was the only good game they had.  Mizzou's defense has faced a tough slate of teams so far.

Also: sucks to be Nebraska.  They're the #8 offense in the country...and #6 in their conference.

But this data was for all plays.  What about "close games" only?

Offensive S&P (close-game only) - Top 20

  1. Texas (1.131)
  2. USC (1.110)
  3. Texas Tech (1.101)
  4. Missouri (1.089)
  5. Oklahoma (1.078)
  6. Penn State (1.074)
  7. Oklahoma State (1.000)
  8. Nebraska (0.934)
  9. Oregon (0.920)
  10. LSU (?) (0.904)
  11. Florida (0.904)
  12. South Florida (0.893)
  13. Kansas (0.892)
  14. Arizona (0.888)
  15. Oregon State (0.887)
  16. Boston College (!) (0.869)
  17. Kansas State (0.863)
  18. Illinois (0.859)
  19. Iowa (!) (0.854)
  20. Georgia (0.854)

Baylor barely misses the cut at #21...so the Big 12 has to settle for only having 8 of the top 17 close-game offenses in the country.  Bummer.

Offensive S&P (close-game only) - Bottom 10

  1. Auburn (0.538)
  2. Mississippi State (0.542)
  3. Washington State (0.548)
  4. Michigan (0.596)
  5. Washington (0.604)
  6. Wake Forest (0.620)
  7. N.C. State (0.626)
  8. Kentucky (0.628)
  9. Colorado (0.631)
  10. Virginia (0.631)

Alright, so what about the defense?

Defensive S&P (all plays) - Top 10

  1. Florida State (0.485!)
  2. Tennessee (0.516)
  3. USC (0.526)
  4. Kentucky (0.537)
  5. Boston College (0.546)
  6. South Florida (0.560)
  7. Auburn (0.565)
  8. Penn State (0.577)
  9. Oregon (0.578)
  10. Alabama (0.578)

Defensive S&P (all plays) - Bottom 5

  1. Washington (1.049)
  2. Washington State (1.032)
  3. Syracuse (0.944)
  4. Texas A&M (0.912)
  5. N.C. State (0.854)

That the SEC has only 4 of the top 10 is almost a surprise.  And how about Florida State's sickening number there??

Alright, to close-game data...

Defensive S&P (close-game only) - Top 20

  1. Florida State (0.480)
  2. Tennessee (0.498)
  3. Alabama (0.502)
  4. Boston College (0.529)
  5. Georgia Tech (0.559)
  6. Auburn (0.559)
  7. Kentucky (0.574)
  8. Penn State (0.585)
  9. Florida (0.591)
  10. Iowa (0.598)
  11. Georgia (0.599)
  12. Ohio State (0.605)
  13. Louisville (0.612)
  14. South Carolina (0.614)
  15. Wake Forest (0.615)
  16. Texas (0.621)
  17. Oregon (0.622)
  18. Clemson (0.627)
  19. Mississippi State (0.636)
  20. South Florida (0.636)

Defensive S&P (close-game only) - Bottom 10

  1. Washington State (1.117)
  2. Washington (1.040)
  3. Syracuse (0.932)
  4. Texas A&M (0.893)
  5. Baylor (0.847)
  6. Iowa State (0.828)
  7. Indiana (0.818)
  8. N.C. State (0.815)
  9. UCLA (0.797)
  10. Purdue (0.792)

Alright, so what happens if we compare a team's close-game Offfensive S&P to its close-game Defensive S&P?  That wouldn't be a bad way to rank teams, would it?  Granted, we don't have a strength-of-schedule component here (that's where the '+' ratings come into play...once I get enough data), but it's still not bad.

Close-game S&P Differential (Offense minus Defense) - All BCS teams

  1. Texas (+0.510)
  2. Penn State (+0.490)
  3. USC (+0.420)
  4. Florida State? (+0.352)
  5. Oklahoma State (+0.349)
  6. Oklahoma (+0.349)
  7. Boston College (+0.340)
  8. Texas Tech (+0.334)
  9. Missouri (+0.333)
  10. Alabama (+0.318)
  11. Florida (+0.313)
  12. Oregon (+0.298)
  13. South Florida (+0.257)
  14. Iowa (+0.256)
  15. Georgia (+0.255)
  16. Oregon State (+0.217)
  17. LSU (+0.207)
  18. Louisville (+0.196)
  19. Kansas (+0.178)
  20. Arizona (+0.176)
  21. Ohio State (+0.174)
  22. Tennessee (+0.155)
  23. Nebraska (+0.153)
  24. Cincinnati (+0.151)
  25. Georgia Tech (+0.142)
  26. Clemson (+0.136)
  27. UConn (+0.114)
  28. South Carolina (+0.113)
  29. California (+0.109)
  30. West Virginia (+0.108)
  31. Notre Dame (+0.097)
  32. Illinois (+0.093)
  33. Kansas State (+0.092)
  34. Northwestern (+0.092)
  35. Maryland (+0.084)
  36. Minnesota (+0.075)
  37. Michigan State (+0.068)
  38. Ole Miss (+0.066)
  39. North Carolina (+0.064)
  40. Pittsburgh (+0.063)
  41. Kentucky (+0.053)
  42. Miami-FL (+0.036)
  43. Wisconsin (+0.027)
  44. Arizona State (+0.022)
  45. Baylor (+0.006)
  46. Wake Forest (+0.005)
  47. Stanford (-0.008)
  48. Virginia Tech (-0.017)
  49. Vanderbilt (-0.019)
  50. Duke (-0.021)
  51. Auburn (-0.022)
  52. Arkansas (-0.024)
  53. Rutgers (-0.025)
  54. Virginia (-0.045)
  55. Indiana (-0.050)
  56. Mississippi State (-0.094)
  57. Purdue (-0.097)
  58. Colorado (-0.097)
  59. Michigan (-0.108)
  60. UCLA (-0.113)
  61. Iowa State (-0.135)
  62. N.C. State (-0.188)
  63. Syracuse (-0.199)
  64. Texas A&M (-0.218)
  65. Washington (-0.437)
  66. Washington State (-0.569)

Now, you can see some issues here.  Florida State, playing mostly 1-AA and ACC competition (and Colorado), is a lot higher than they probably should be, and they'll inevitably fall in '+' ratings.  But some of the results here are interesting.  Tennessee is MUCH higher than I would have thought, due to their surprisingly stingy defense.

The Big 12 has five teams on the list before SEC gets its first.  Part of that has to do with the fact that seemingly every SEC team still has a cupcake game to play, but still...I do think that says something (of course, at the same time, the Big 12 has three teams lower on the list than any SEC team).  The Big 12's offenses, to date, have been better than the SEC's defenses (relatively speaking).

Finally the question has been answered: Washington State has been worse than Texas has been good.

So if we used this as the basis for a Big 12-SEC challenge, here would be the matchups (I'm bolding my predicted winner):

1 vs 1: Texas vs Alabama
2 vs 2: Oklahoma State vs Florida
3 vs 3: Oklahoma vs Georgia
4 vs 4: Texas Tech vs LSU
5 vs 5: Missouri vs Tennessee
6 vs 6: Kansas vs South Carolina
7 vs 7: Nebraska vs Ole Miss
8 vs 8: Kansas State vs Kentucky
9 vs 9: Baylor vs Vanderbilt
10 vs 10: Colorado vs Auburn
11 vs 11: Iowa State vs Arkansas
12 vs 12: Texas A&M vs Mississippi State

Once again, it ends up 6 to 6.  I was extremely torn on Tech/LSU and CU/Auburn.