And now, a review of last week's "key players"...
Key Players: Iowa State
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Key Players: Mizzou
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MU-ISU Summary
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Other Big 12 Games
Okla St
|
Tech
|
|
% Close = 64.8% | ||
32.8% | Field Position % |
67.2% |
71.0% | Leverage % |
86.3% |
TOTAL | ||
62 | Plays | 80 |
21.73 | EqPts | 46.65 |
48.4% | Success Rate | 70.0% |
0.35 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.58 |
0.834 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 1.283 |
CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
34 | Plays | 58 |
11.73 | EqPts | 33.59 |
44.1% | Success Rate | 65.5% |
0.34 | PPP | 0.58 |
0.786 | S&P | 1.234 |
RUSHING | ||
13.80 | EqPts | 6.84 |
56.3% | Success Rate | 60.0% |
0.43 | PPP | 0.27 |
0.994 | S&P | 0.874 |
4.09 | Line Yards/carry |
2.78 |
PASSING | ||
7.93 | EqPts | 39.81 |
40.0% | Success Rate | 74.6% |
0.26 | PPP | 0.72 |
0.664 | S&P | 1.469 |
NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
52.3% | Success Rate | 65.2% |
0.41 | PPP | 0.55 |
0.931 | S&P | 1.207 |
PASSING DOWNS | ||
38.9% | Success Rate | 100.0% |
0.21 | PPP | 0.76 |
0.599 | S&P | 1.763 |
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TURNOVERS | ||
2 | Number | 2 |
5.35 | Points Lost | 5.13 |
3.05 | Points Given | 4.82 |
8.40 | Total T/O Pts | 9.95 |
+1.55 | Turnover Pts Margin | -1.55 |
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0.721 | Q1 S&P | 1.092 |
0.844 | Q2 S&P | 1.418 |
1.223 | Q3 S&P | 1.271 |
0.420 | Q4 S&P | 1.412 |
0.854 | 1st Down S&P | 1.395 |
0.887 | 2nd Down S&P | 1.140 |
0.661 | 3rd Down S&P | 1.135 |
- Most amazing stat of the year: Texas Tech was 11-for-11 on Passing Downs on Saturday night. ELEVEN FOR ELEVEN. ON PASSING DOWNS. Okie State beat Mizzou because they were actually able to shut Mizzou down in those opportunities, but Tech was having none of it. They could not be stopped.
- Really, this one almost qualifies for second most amazing stat of the year: Tech only faced 11 Passing Downs in 80 plays. Their leverage rate of 86% is, I think, the highest I've seen. There's efficiency, and then there's efficiency.
- This is the perfect example of how Tech's offense puts pressure on the other team's offense to succeed. OSU was able to run the ball very effectively (4.09 line yards per carry is quite high, and a 0.994 S&P is good), but they failed in the big-play moments early on, failure begot more failure, and suddenly they were down big. You have to hit the ground running against Tech, and you can't let up. I'll use my old "It's like playing Pete Sampras--he breaks your serve once, and you're toast" analogy here... only (*sniff*) I don't get to use it in reference to Mizzou anymore.
Kansas
|
Nebraska
|
|
% Close = 93.5% | ||
31.9% | Field Position % |
68.1% |
63.8% | Leverage % |
68.6% |
TOTAL | ||
69 | Plays | 70 |
29.83 | EqPts | 37.41 |
46.4% | Success Rate | 54.3% |
0.43 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.53 |
0.896 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 1.077 |
CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
60 | Plays | 70 |
24.07 | EqPts | 37.41 |
46.7% | Success Rate | 54.3% |
0.40 | PPP | 0.53 |
0.868 | S&P | 1.077 |
RUSHING | ||
10.23 | EqPts | 14.44 |
52.9% | Success Rate | 50.0% |
0.30 | PPP | 0.48 |
0.830 | S&P | 0.981 |
3.41 | Line Yards/carry |
3.14 |
PASSING | ||
19.60 | EqPts | 22.97 |
40.0% | Success Rate | 57.5% |
0.56 | PPP | 0.57 |
0.960 | S&P | 1.149 |
NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
52.3% | Success Rate | 58.3% |
0.41 | PPP | 0.52 |
0.932 | S&P | 1.100 |
PASSING DOWNS | ||
36.0% | Success Rate | 45.5% |
0.47 | PPP | 0.57 |
0.833 | S&P | 1.028 |
TURNOVERS | ||
1 | Number | 3 |
1.18 | Points Lost | 9.13 |
3.84 | Points Given | 6.34 |
5.02 | Total T/O Pts | 15.47 |
+10.45 | Turnover Pts Margin | -10.45 |
1.091 | Q1 S&P | 1.000 |
0.743 | Q2 S&P | 0.937 |
0.878 | Q3 S&P | 1.029 |
0.931 | Q4 S&P | 1.421 |
1.054 | 1st Down S&P | 1.084 |
0.970 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.936 |
0.388 | 3rd Down S&P | 1.299 |
- Turnovers almost did Nebraska in big-time here. Without turnovers, this was a blowout.
- Really, this game came down to two things: success rates and 3rd downs. Both teams had equal big-play ability in the passing game, but KU's 40.0% success rate throwing the ball hurt them...and NU's 57.5% success rate passing allowed the Huskers to control the ball. That, and NU was beyond dominant on 3rd downs.
- These pass defense numbers from KU have to have Colt McCoy and Chase Daniel licking their lips.
- I'm glad we played Nebraska when we did. Not saying we couldn't still beat them, but there's no question that they're playing better and we're playing worse than we were on October 4.
OU
|
ATM
|
|
% Close = 20.5% | ||
62.1% | Field Position % |
37.9% |
63.4% | Leverage % |
65.0% |
TOTAL | ||
71 | Plays | 80 |
48.92 | EqPts | 18.56 |
47.9% | Success Rate | 30.0% |
0.69 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.23 |
1.168 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.532 |
CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
25 | Plays | 6 |
22.15 | EqPts | 0.02 |
64.0% | Success Rate | 16.7% |
0.89 | PPP | 0.00 |
1.526 | S&P | 0.170 |
RUSHING | ||
24.66 | EqPts | 5.24 |
44.4% | Success Rate | 36.0% |
0.68 | PPP | 0.21 |
1.129 | S&P | 0.570 |
3.76 | Line Yards/carry |
1.82 |
PASSING | ||
24.26 | EqPts | 13.32 |
51.4% | Success Rate | 27.3% |
0.69 | PPP | 0.24 |
1.207 | S&P | 0.515 |
NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
48.9% | Success Rate | 32.7% |
0.58 | PPP | 0.29 |
1.065 | S&P | 0.619 |
PASSING DOWNS | ||
46.2% | Success Rate | 25.0% |
0.89 | PPP | 0.12 |
1.347 | S&P | 0.370 |
TURNOVERS | ||
0 | Number | 4 |
0.00 | Points Lost | 6.58 |
0.00 | Points Given | 15.19 |
0.00 | Total T/O Pts | 21.77 |
+21.77 | Turnover Pts Margin | -21.77 |
1.329 | Q1 S&P | 0.185 |
1.274 | Q2 S&P | 0.730 |
1.291 | Q3 S&P | 0.418 |
0.574 | Q4 S&P | 0.702 |
1.023 | 1st Down S&P | 0.540 |
1.423 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.401 |
1.147 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.465 |
- Once again, it's hard to get a read on how OU will respond to a close game because once again, they made ridiculously short work of an inferior opponent. A&M ran 6 plays, and the game was over.
- Note to ATM: if you're going to give up a 30-point deficit in EqPts, it's not a good idea to also give up a 22-point deficit in turnover points. Good god...they're lucky to have only lost by 34. Lucky for them, OU can't cover kickoffs to save their lives, and ATM got some cheap points that way.
Baylor
|
Texas
|
|
% Close = 63.2% | ||
33.8% | Field Position % |
66.2% |
55.1% | Leverage % |
77.4% |
TOTAL | ||
49 | Plays | 84 |
17.97 | EqPts | 36.02 |
16.3% | Success Rate | 52.4% |
0.37 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.43 |
0.530 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.953 |
CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
36 | Plays | 48 |
10.25 | EqPts | 25.09 |
16.7% | Success Rate | 52.1% |
0.28 | PPP | 0.52 |
0.451 | S&P | 1.044 |
RUSHING | ||
13.85 | EqPts | 11.88 |
26.9% | Success Rate | 54.4% |
0.53 | PPP | 0.26 |
0.802 | S&P | 0.802 |
2.54 | Line Yards/carry |
3.10 |
PASSING | ||
4.12 | EqPts | 24.14 |
4.4% | Success Rate | 50.0% |
0.18 | PPP | 0.64 |
0.223 | S&P | 1.135 |
NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
25.9% | Success Rate | 52.3% |
0.60 | PPP | 0.35 |
0.861 | S&P | 0.876 |
PASSING DOWNS | ||
4.6% | Success Rate | 52.6% |
0.08 | PPP | 0.69 |
0.125 | S&P | 1.214 |
TURNOVERS | ||
1 | Number | 2 |
1.31 | Points Lost | 3.38 |
7.00 | Points Given | 7.67 |
8.31 | Total T/O Pts | 11.05 |
+2.74 | Turnover Pts Margin | -2.74 |
0.316 | Q1 S&P | 1.030 |
0.612 | Q2 S&P | 0.862 |
0.415 | Q3 S&P | 1.154 |
1.072 | Q4 S&P | 0.699 |
0.404 | 1st Down S&P | 0.983 |
0.574 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.946 |
0.555 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.861 |
- Power to Baylor for figuring out how to keep this one relatively respectable without being able to complete a worthwhile pass (other than the one to Kendall Wright to tie the game at 14-14...that was literally their only even medium-sized pass play. It's actually pretty hard to manage a 4.4% passing success rate. You'd have figured they'd have gotten 2-3 decent passes just by accident.
- The 4.6% success rate on Passing Downs is almost as impressive.
- Not too sure what else to say about this one. Robert Griffin is to the point where he's as good as he's going to be this year. Mizzou's defense isn't as fast as Texas', and Baylor moved the ball with the thinnest of margins for error against the Tigers last weekend. Against UT, the short passing just isn't going to work.
Iowa St
|
Colorado
|
|
% Close = 100.0% | ||
49.3% | Field Position % |
50.7% |
71.8% | Leverage % |
72.6% |
TOTAL | ||
71 | Plays | 73 |
26.17 | EqPts | 39.98 |
40.9% | Success Rate | 45.2% |
0.37 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.55 |
0.777 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 1.000 |
CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
same | Plays | same |
same | EqPts | same |
same | Success Rate | same |
same | PPP | same |
same | S&P | same |
RUSHING | ||
15.61 | EqPts | 15.64 |
40.5% | Success Rate | 41.9% |
0.37 | PPP | 0.50 |
0.777 | S&P | 0.924 |
2.86 | Line Yards/carry |
3.17 |
PASSING | ||
10.56 | EqPts | 24.35 |
41.4% | Success Rate | 47.6% |
0.36 | PPP | 0.58 |
0.778 | S&P | 1.056 |
NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
49.0% | Success Rate | 49.1% |
0.43 | PPP | 0.67 |
0.920 | S&P | 1.158 |
PASSING DOWNS | ||
20.0% | Success Rate | 35.0% |
0.21 | PPP | 0.23 |
0.412 | S&P | 0.580 |
TURNOVERS | ||
0 | Number | 1 |
0.00 | Points Lost | 4.41 |
0.00 | Points Given | 1.58 |
0.00 | Total T/O Pts | 5.99 |
+5.99 | Turnover Pts Margin | -5.99 |
0.524 | Q1 S&P | 0.708 |
0.710 | Q2 S&P | 0.430 |
0.917 | Q3 S&P | 1.238 |
0.962 | Q4 S&P | 1.347 |
0.944 | 1st Down S&P | 0.986 |
0.669 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.832 |
0.540 | 3rd Down S&P | 1.058 |
- I am still having trouble believing that this game was on (regular cable) TV, and KU-NU was not. Not sure the thought process on that one, but I can say that the first half of this game was horrendous. Lucky for CU, Cody Nolte-Hawkins is good for at least one rescue per season. Against the Cyclones' putrid secondary, Coach's Son Hawkins was able to sub in in the second half and move the ball at will after Tyler "Don't Call Me Taylor" Hansen was unable to find a rhythm in the first 30 minutes.
- This was another game that came down to third downs, and the fact that CU managed to almost lose this game despite dominating 3rd downs to this level is just absurd. Every single one of Colorado's six penalties, however, seemed to come at ridiculously inopportune times (including a Q2 ISU drive where CU ran into or roughed the kicker not once, but twice...), and ISU was able to hold on to the lead for dear life much longer than they deserved.
- If Chase Daniel doesn't rediscover his rhythm at Jack Trice Stadium this weekend, he may never find it.