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Mizzou-ORU: Be...side the Box Score

I plan on doing a little stat analysis for each Mizzou game, but it's not to the play-by-play level, so we won't be using the "Beyond the Box Score" moniker.  Instead, we'll just hang out beside the box score for a bit.

(Here's the official box score.)

Mizzou 92, Oral Roberts 83

Mizzou ORU
Points Per Minute
2.30 2.08
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.29 1.17
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.42 1.54
2-PT FG% 55.8% 42.5%
3-PT FG% 46.2% 57.1%
FT% 66.7% 78.1%
Mizzou ORU
Assists 18 10
Steals 10 6
Turnovers 10 12
(Assists + Steals) / TO 2.80 1.33
Mizzou ORU
Expected Offensive Rebounds* 12 12
Offensive Rebounds 13 11
Eq. Rebound Margin +1 -1

* This is an idea discussed last week.  Depending on the number of 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and FTs shot, you can generate a number of expected offensive rebounds and compare that to the actual number.

  • Mizzou won this game on offense.  They forced only 12 turnovers, but 1.29 points per possession is very high.  They shot well and passed well, and though Oral Roberts is not a Big 12 caliber team, they're at least a solid mid-major, and 1.29 PPP is high against even that level of team.  And as we'll see in the player analysis, I'm giving DeMarre Carroll and Miguel Paul a lot of credit for that offensive efficiency.
  • ORU's Robert Jarvis scored 34 points on just 18 shots, accounting for a large % of ORU's offensive success.  Jarvis aside, the Golden Eagles averaged just 1.36 points per shot (39% FG)...which is still pretty high, but better.
  • Thanks to Leo Lyons' 8-for-10 performance from the FT line, Mizzou actually approached 70% as a team.  Of course, 70% still isn't very good.  Mizzou's guards went 6-for-9 from the line...67% isn't great, but it's also a small sample size, so we'll allow it for now.

Player analysis after the jump.

Player EqPts* EqPts/Min Line
Leo Lyons 22.73 0.81 26 Pts, 8-for-10 FTs, 8 Reb, 4 OffReb
DeMarre Carroll 21.64 0.72 16 Pts, 8 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
Miguel Paul 12.92 0.68 9 Pts, 5 Ast, 1 Stl
Matt Lawrence 10.43 0.40 8 Pts, 2 Ast, 2 Reb
Zaire Taylor 7.94 0.38 11 Pts, 3-for-6 FGs, 3 Reb, 2 Stl
Kim English 5.76 0.58 4 Pts, 2-for-3 FGs, 2 Ast
Marcus Denmon 4.67 0.27 2 Pts 1-for-2 FGs, 2 Reb, 2 Stl
Keith Ramsey 2.02 0.22 4 Pts, 1 Stl, 1 Blk
Justin Safford 1.87 0.23 5 Pts, 2-for-3 FGs, 3 Reb, 4 PF
Laurence Bowers 1.25 0.25 1 Reb, 1 Blk
J.T. Tiller -0.47 -0.02 7 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 TO, 4 PF
Steve Moore DNP
Michael Anderson Jr. DNP
Jarrett Sutton DNP

EqPts = a take-off of the Net Equivalent Points idea discussed last week.  Taking points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account, the team's points are re-distributed to figure out who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.  I can go into detail on the formula if anybody asks, but for now just know that that was the intent.

  • Best game yet from Miguel Paul, who managed 5 assists and a steal in just 19 minutes.  Zaire Taylor played well, but Paul played better.
  • Four assists from DeMarre Carroll.  Nice.  DeMarre and Leo switched roles, as Leo took the shots and DeMarre found the open man.
  • I order these by EqPts scored.  In theory, you'd like to see the EqPts/Min figure go from highest-to-lowest on this list as well, as that would suggest that Mike Anderson played the best performers the most.  That said, Anderson did a pretty good job here.  The only area that could have been better was at SF, where Matt Lawrence's 26 minutes were probably a bit much, and Kim English's 10 minutes were not quite enough.
  • JT Tiller's 3 turnovers and 4 fouls put him in the negative.  He wasn't needed much yesterday, so instead of saying he had a bad game, we'll say he was saving himself for more important occasions.
  • At some point, we need to just start considering Safford, Ramsey and Bowers all one player.  What was that one player's (Jaureth Bamford) line?  22 minutes, 9 points on 5 shots, 5 rebounds (1 offensive), 1 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks.  Not bad.  Oh yeah, and 5 fouls.

Season to Date

Player EqPts/Gm EqPts/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 20.39 0.72 19.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 APG
Leo Lyons 16.81 0.69 18.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.56 PPS
Zaire Taylor 8.81 0.33 5.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.8 APG
J.T. Tiller 8.34 0.37 8.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon 6.97 0.40 5.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG
Matt Lawrence 6.28 0.31 8.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 39.5% FG
Miguel Paul 6.08 0.39 6.2 PPG, 2.3 APG, 0.15 APM
Keith Ramsey 3.78 0.36 4.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.5 OffRPG
Justin Safford 3.02 0.25 4.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.8 FoulsPG
Kim English 2.90 0.24 5.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Laurence Bowers 1.95 0.24 1.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG
Jarrett Sutton 1.77 0.59 3.0 PPG, 1 Point Per Minute!
Michael Anderson Jr. 1.08 0.20 1.0 PPG, 1 Coach's son
Steve Moore -0.34 -0.07 1.7 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.3 BPG
  • Clearly we need to play Jarrett Sutton 20 minutes per game, he'd average 20 points, right?  Ri...right?  That's how stats work, right?
  • Sutton's greatness aside, the minutes distribution is pretty strong.  I do think Paul will slowly overtake Taylor for PT...don't really care who starts, but Paul will start getting more and more of the key minutes.
  • I also like how Marcus Denmon continues to figure out ways to contribute despite his shot not falling.  He only took two shots against ORU but still contributed.  He and English should continue to overtake Matt Lawrence as least in games where Lawrence's shot isn't falling.
  • Jaureth Bamford: 28.0 MPG, 9.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.7 SPG.  Not bad at all.

I'm cranking through this quickly, so if I need to explain something in the stats, just ask in comments...