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Rock M-tology

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Alright, Championship Week is upon us, and for years I've been creating mock brackets down the stretch.  Being that I have my very own blog now, I figure I might as well publish my predictions!  I won't be doing this every day this week, but I'll have to do it at least a couple more times...I figure one on about Thursday, when the major conf tourneys have kicked up, and again on Sunday before the brackets are announced.

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First things first...

Last 8 In...
Texas A&M (21-9)
Kentucky (18-11)
Kansas State (19-10)
VCU (24-7)
St. Joe’s (18-11)
Villanova (19-11)
Ohio State (19-12)
Virginia Tech (18-12)

First 8 out...
Western Kentucky (23-6)
Dayton (20-9)
UAB (22-9)
Ole Miss (21-9)
New Mexico (24-7)
Syracuse (19-12)
Creighton (20-10)
Oregon (18-12)

VCU and St. Mary's blew up the bubble a bit by both losing yesterday (both are still relatively safely in), but that may be a good thing, as there are some entirely undeserving teams creeping awfully close to the final 65...as exemplified by the presence of St. Joe's...

CHARLOTTE REGION

1 Tennessee vs 16 Play-in Winner (Sacred Heart vs Alabama State)
8 Miami-FL vs 9 Illinois State
(in Birmingham)

5 Notre Dame vs 12 Stephen F. Austin
4 Indiana vs 13 George Mason (I know who I'm picking...)
(in N. Little Rock)

6 Gonzaga vs 11 Davidson
3 Xavier vs 14 Siena (the mid-major quadrant...)
(in Omaha)

7 Pittsburgh vs 10 Arizona
2 Kansas vs UC-Santa Barbara
(in Omaha)

PHOENIX REGION

1 UCLA vs 16 Portland State (a #1 seed for UCLA has been pre-ordained)
8 Kent State vs 9 West Virginia
(in Anaheim)

5 BYU vs 12 Kansas State (BYU gets a horrid draw)
4 Drake vs 13 Ohio State
(in Denver)

6 Marquette vs 11 Texas A&M
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Cornell
(in Tampa)

7 South Alabama vs 10 Mississippi State
2 Duke vs 15 UMBC
(in Raleigh)

DETROIT REGION

1 North Carolina vs 16 Morgan State
8 UNLV vs 9 St. Mary's
(in Raleigh)

5 Michigan State vs 12 Villanova
4 Vanderbilt vs 13 Oral Roberts (upset alert!)
(in Tampa)

6 Purdue vs 11 VCU (upset alert!)
3 Stanford vs 14 Utah State
(in Anaheim)

7 Oklahoma vs 10 Arkansas
2 Georgetown vs 15 Winthrop (upset alert!  Okay, probably not, but maybe...)
(in Washington DC...unless G'town the official host...not sure)

HOUSTON REGION

1 Memphis vs 16 American
8 USC vs 9 Baylor (though USC's probably played themselves into a higher seed now)
(in N. Little Rock)

5 Butler vs 12 St. Joseph's
4 UConn vs 13 Virginia Tech
(in Washington DC)

6 Washington State vs 11 Kentucky
3 Louisville vs 14 Belmont
(in Birmingham)

7 Clemson vs 10 UMass
2 Texas vs 15 Austin Peay
(in Denver)

Thoughts...

  • The Big East gets EIGHT teams in at the moment...'Nova is obviously pretty iffy, but the other 7 are relatively safe...and you have to figure the winner of Wed's Nova/Cuse matchup gets in...
  • The Big 12 gets 6 in, though KSU and ATM aren't entirely safe...
  • Gonzaga, Davidson and South Alabama could totally screw somebody over if they lose in their conf tourney.  Davidson plays 7th-seed Elon in tonight's Southern Conf final, so that's highly unlikely.  However, USA will still probably need to get by WKU tomorrow night (assuming both win their semis), and Gonzaga has to win AT San Diego in tonight's WCC finals...both are stiff tests.  Ohio State fans better be rooting hard for the Zags and...uhh...whatever USA's mascot is...am going totally blank at the moment...
  • I'm very torn about St. Joe's.  They have a decent resume, but they got the five seed in the A10 tourney, below Richmond and Temple...that doesn't help them...
  • Arizona State vs Arizona is an interesting test for the committee.  ASU swept Arizona and finished two seeds higher in the conference standings...but they beat nobody.  I have ASU very much out at the moment, but I really don't take head-to-head into account at all...aside from maybe the conf tournament...
  • According to my calculations, Mizzou is officially the 41st team out...just sayin'...