Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

South Division

Game-Changing Stats

• Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
• Q1 Offense
• Offensive Points Per Play
• Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster?  Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup.  The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable.  Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country.  They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford.  As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy.  He was sacked all of once a game last year.  I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone.  Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat.  Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost.  If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer?  Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently.  I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles.  He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug.  You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him.  If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there.  DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?"  There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks).  Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown?  They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen.  Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses.  Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps.  If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country.  The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus.  Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better).  And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT.  Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy.  I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now.  They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.).  But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07?  I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado?  OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington).  Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those?  I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Game-Changing Stats

• Q1 Defense
• 1st Down Pass Offense
• 2nd Down Defense
• Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends.  As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P).  However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head.  His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18).  But those INTs are kinda sorta important.  If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter.  Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P).  Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be).  Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley.  They need to find some new blood.  Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes.  They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes.  Yes, they will improve.  How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South.  They're a lot closer than people want to think.  Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South.  Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder.  But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South.  Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.