Well...apparently I complained a little too much about consistency last week...definitely not a consistent week last time around...and there are some, uhh, interesting picks this time around. I'm a little scared.
Last Week: Can we just pretend last week didn't happen?
|All Games||25-28-1||194-139-4 (58.2%)|
|Big 12||2-4||30-20-2 (60.0%)|
UGH. Lost a large handful of games by 0.5 or 1 point. My redemption here is simply that it was a stupid week--I won last week's FO picks with a 5-5 record.
As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.
|Sat., 10/24||11:30am||Colorado at Kansas State||CU by 4.2||CU +4.5|
|Iowa State at Nebraska||NU by 25.4||NU -17.5|
|Oklahoma State at Baylor||OSU by 6.6||OSU -9.5|
|2:30pm||Oklahoma at Kansas||OU by 12.5||OU -7||
|6:00pm||Texas A&M at Texas Tech||Tech by 7.7||Tech -22.5||
|7:00pm||Texas at Missouri||UT by 0.3||UT -13|
The disclaimers are building here. As I've mentioned before, it does seem like NU's and MU's ratings both skewed upward a bit too much after the monsoon game, so their prowess is probably being overstated. Meanwhile, Baylor's performance with Hot Tub Griffin III is still taken into account, and Tech's early mediocre play is probably keeping them from getting too much credit for how good they've looked in the last two weeks (and how bad ATM has looked). Maybe ATM rebounds and makes it a game...I guess we'll see how much of an impact "two-week momentum" will make. At the NFL level, Aaron from Football Outsiders does take into account recent momentum, and I think that's something I will have to do at some point, but I'm not going to do it arbitrarily--we're going to find out how much of an impact it truly makes (and at what increment...2 weeks? 3? 5?) and adjust for next year.
All games after the jump.
|Wed., 10/21||7:00pm||Tulsa at UTEP||Tulsa by 9.4||Tulsa -7|
|Thurs., 10/22||7:00pm||Florida State at North Carolina||FSU by 2.7||FSU +2.5||
|Fri., 10/23||7:00pm||Rutgers at Army||Army by 8.2||Army +10|
|Sat., 10/24||11:00am||Central Michigan at Bowling Green||BGSU by 1.2||BGSU +7.5|
|Connecticut at West Virginia||UConn by 1.4||UConn +7||
|Georgia Tech at Virginia||UVa by 8.5||UVa +5.5|
|Illinois at Purdue||Purdue by 11.4||Purdue -10||Purdue (TIE)
|Indiana at Northwestern||Indiana by 3.9||Indiana +6||
|Minnesota at Ohio State||tOSU by 13.1||tOSU -18|
|South Florida at Pittsburgh||USF by 2.4||USF +6.5|
|UAB at Marshall||Marshall by 7.9||Marshall -7||
|11:21am||Arkansas at Ole Miss||Arky by 12.6||Arky +6|
|11:30am||Colorado at Kansas State||CU by 4.2||CU +4.5|
|Iowa State at Nebraska||NU by 25.4||NU -17.4|
|Oklahoma State at Baylor||OSU by 6.6||OSU -9.5|
|12:00pm||Ball State at Eastern Michigan||EMU by 4.3||EMU +3||
|Northern Ilinois at Miami-OH||NIU by 6.8||NIU -11||Miami-OH (TIE)
|12:30pm||Maryland at Duke||Maryland by 7.8||Maryland +5.5||MARYLAND (WIN)
|1:00pm||Buffalo at Western Michigan||WMU by 7.3||WMU -5|
|Kent State at Ohio||Ohio by 13.1||Ohio -10.5|
|Louisiana Tech at Utah State||USU by 7.8||USU -1.5||
|2:00pm||Akron at Syracuse||'Cuse by 7.0||'Cuse -10|
|2:30pm||Boston College at Notre Dame||ND by 0.7||ND -8.5|
|Central Florida at Rice||UCF by 0.8||UCF -10|
|Clemson at Miami-FL||Miami by 8.2||Miami -5|
|Louisville at Cincinnati||Cincy by 16.8||Cincy -18|
|North Texas at Troy||Troy by 13.8||Troy -17.5|
|Oklahoma at Kansas||OU by 12.5||OU -7||
|Oregon at Washington||Oregon by 1.9||Oregon -9|
|Penn State at Michigan||PSU by 12.4||PSU -4.5||
|Tennessee at Alabama||'Bama by 9.6||'Bama -15||
|Wake Forest at Navy||Navy by 3.8||Navy -2.5||
|W'ern Kentucky at Middle Tennessee||MTSU by 12.9||MTSU -18|
|3:00pm||Air Force at Utah||Utah by 10.3||Utah -9.5|
|San Diego State at Colorado State||CSU by 7.0||CSU -8||
|3:05pm||Idaho at Nevada||Nevada by 16.2||Nevada -15||
|3:30pm||Washington State at California||Cal by 14.9||Cal -35||WAZZU (WIN)
|4:00pm||Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette||FAU by 9.7||FAU +3||
|5:30pm||UCLA at Arizona||UCLA by 4.3||UCLA +8.5|
|6:00pm||Florida International at Arkansas State||ASU by 8.1||ASU -11|
|Iowa at Michigan State||Iowa by 4.6||PK||
|Temple at Toledo||Toledo by 10.0||Toledo -2.5|
|Texas A&M at Texas Tech||Tech by 7.7||Tech -22.5||
|Tulane at Southern Miss||USM by 10.4||USM -21.5|
|UL-Monroe at Kentucky||UK by 10.8||UK -16.5|
|Vanderbilt at South Carolina||SC by 19.7||SC -12.5|
|6:30pm||Auburn at LSU||LSU by 11.4||LSU -7.5||
|Florida at Mississippi State||Florida by 30.2||Florida -23||
|SMU at Houston||Houston by 18.8||Houston -16.5||
|TCU at BYU||TCU by 4.5||TCU -2.5||
|7:00pm||Oregon State at USC||USC by 6.3||USC -20.5||
|Texas at Missouri||Texas by 0.3||Texas -13|
|UNLV at New Mexico||UNLV by 1.1||UNLV -1||
|9:15pm||Arizona State at Stanford||Stanford by 4.7||Stanford -6.5|
|9:15pm||Fresno State at New Mexico State||FSU by 17.7||FSU -23.5|
|10:05pm||Boise State at Hawaii||Boise by 16.0||Boise -25|
- Once again, no conference is crazier than the Pac-10, where the bottom half just continues to shuffle around and make no sense. UCLA-Arizona is a complete mystery, as is Cal. Thanks to gigantic eggs laid against Oregon and USC, Cal's projections aren't that hot...but they've looked really, really good against everybody else. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they beat Wazzu by about 85, but again, the projections take the whole season into account. Numbers don't deal well with schizophrenia.
- The numbers have hitched their wagon to the Virginia turnaround, and so far they've been spot-on. Still, though...beating Georgia Tech? Huh.
- Rutgers disclaimer: why are they projected to lose to Army by 8? Because they've played two FCS teams (not just FCS teams, god-awful ones), and it's completely wrecked their SOS. They're not good, but they're probably not that bad. Buyer beware on that one.
Gotta say...the iffy week last week shook me up, and I'm wary about quite a few of these picks. Then again, if not for the closest of close misses, I'd have been right at the 60% I'm used to, so who knows...do beware of the disclaimers I missed above, and just for your own sanity, if you're betting, avoid the Pac-10 at all costs.