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Week 8 BTBS Picks!

Well...apparently I complained a little too much about consistency last week...definitely not a consistent week last time around...and there are some, uhh, interesting picks this time around.  I'm a little scared.

Last Week: Can we just pretend last week didn't happen?

Category Last Week Season
All Games 25-28-1 194-139-4 (58.2%)
Big 12 2-4 30-20-2 (60.0%)
"LOCKS" 1-5!! 18-14-1 (56.1%)

UGH.  Lost a large handful of games by 0.5 or 1 point.  My redemption here is simply that it was a stupid week--I won last week's FO picks with a 5-5 record.

As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., 10/24 11:30am Colorado at Kansas State CU by 4.2 CU +4.5 CU
Iowa State at Nebraska NU by 25.4 NU -17.5 NU
Oklahoma State at Baylor OSU by 6.6 OSU -9.5 Baylor
2:30pm Oklahoma at Kansas OU by 12.5 OU -7 OU (WIN)
6:00pm Texas A&M at Texas Tech Tech by 7.7 Tech -22.5 ATM (WIN)
7:00pm Texas at Missouri UT by 0.3 UT -13 Mizzou

The disclaimers are building here.  As I've mentioned before, it does seem like NU's and MU's ratings both skewed upward a bit too much after the monsoon game, so their prowess is probably being overstated.  Meanwhile, Baylor's performance with Hot Tub Griffin III is still taken into account, and Tech's early mediocre play is probably keeping them from getting too much credit for how good they've looked in the last two weeks (and how bad ATM has looked).  Maybe ATM rebounds and makes it a game...I guess we'll see how much of an impact "two-week momentum" will make.  At the NFL level, Aaron from Football Outsiders does take into account recent momentum, and I think that's something I will have to do at some point, but I'm not going to do it arbitrarily--we're going to find out how much of an impact it truly makes (and at what increment...2 weeks? 3? 5?) and adjust for next year.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Wed., 10/21 7:00pm Tulsa at UTEP Tulsa by 9.4 Tulsa -7 Tulsa
Thurs., 10/22 7:00pm Florida State at North Carolina FSU by 2.7 FSU +2.5 FSU (WIN)
Fri., 10/23 7:00pm Rutgers at Army Army by 8.2 Army +10 ARMY
Sat., 10/24 11:00am Central Michigan at Bowling Green BGSU by 1.2 BGSU +7.5 BGSU
Connecticut at West Virginia UConn by 1.4 UConn +7 UConn (WIN)
Georgia Tech at Virginia UVa by 8.5 UVa +5.5 UVa
Illinois at Purdue Purdue by 11.4 Purdue -10 Purdue (TIE)
Indiana at Northwestern Indiana by 3.9 Indiana +6 Indiana (WIN)
Minnesota at Ohio State tOSU by 13.1 tOSU -18 Minny
South Florida at Pittsburgh USF by 2.4 USF +6.5 USF
UAB at Marshall Marshall by 7.9 Marshall -7 Marshall (WIN)
11:21am Arkansas at Ole Miss Arky by 12.6 Arky +6 Arky
11:30am Colorado at Kansas State CU by 4.2 CU +4.5 CU
Iowa State at Nebraska NU by 25.4 NU -17.4 NU
Oklahoma State at Baylor OSU by 6.6 OSU -9.5 Baylor
12:00pm Ball State at Eastern Michigan EMU by 4.3 EMU +3 EMU (WIN)
Northern Ilinois at Miami-OH NIU by 6.8 NIU -11 Miami-OH (TIE)
12:30pm Maryland at Duke Maryland by 7.8 Maryland +5.5 MARYLAND (WIN)
1:00pm Buffalo at Western Michigan WMU by 7.3 WMU -5 WMU
Kent State at Ohio Ohio by 13.1 Ohio -10.5 Ohio
Louisiana Tech at Utah State USU by 7.8 USU -1.5 USU (WIN)
2:00pm Akron at Syracuse 'Cuse by 7.0 'Cuse -10 Akron
2:30pm Boston College at Notre Dame ND by 0.7 ND -8.5 ND
Central Florida at Rice UCF by 0.8 UCF -10 Rice
Clemson at Miami-FL Miami by 8.2 Miami -5 Miami
Louisville at Cincinnati Cincy by 16.8 Cincy -18 Louisville
North Texas at Troy Troy by 13.8 Troy -17.5 UNT
Oklahoma at Kansas OU by 12.5 OU -7 OU (WIN)
Oregon at Washington Oregon by 1.9 Oregon -9 U-Dub
Penn State at Michigan PSU by 12.4 PSU -4.5 PSU (WIN)
Tennessee at Alabama 'Bama by 9.6 'Bama -15 Tennessee (WIN)
Wake Forest at Navy Navy by 3.8 Navy -2.5 Navy (WIN)
W'ern Kentucky at Middle Tennessee MTSU by 12.9 MTSU -18 WKU
3:00pm Air Force at Utah Utah by 10.3 Utah -9.5 Utah
San Diego State at Colorado State CSU by 7.0 CSU -8 SDSU (WIN)
3:05pm Idaho at Nevada Nevada by 16.2 Nevada -15 Nevada (WIN)
3:30pm Washington State at California Cal by 14.9 Cal -35 WAZZU (WIN)
4:00pm Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette FAU by 9.7 FAU +3 FAU (WIN)
5:30pm UCLA at Arizona UCLA by 4.3 UCLA +8.5 UCLA
6:00pm Florida International at Arkansas State ASU by 8.1 ASU -11 FIU
Iowa at Michigan State Iowa by 4.6 PK Iowa (WIN)
Temple at Toledo Toledo by 10.0 Toledo -2.5 Toledo
Texas A&M at Texas Tech Tech by 7.7  Tech -22.5 ATM (WIN)
Tulane at Southern Miss USM by 10.4 USM -21.5 Tulane
UL-Monroe at Kentucky UK by 10.8 UK -16.5 ULM
Vanderbilt at South Carolina SC by 19.7 SC -12.5 SC
6:30pm Auburn at LSU LSU by 11.4 LSU -7.5 LSU (WIN)
Florida at Mississippi State Florida by 30.2 Florida -23 Florida
SMU at Houston Houston by 18.8 Houston -16.5 Houston (WIN)
TCU at BYU TCU by 4.5 TCU -2.5 TCU (WIN)
7:00pm Oregon State at USC USC by 6.3 USC -20.5 OSU (WIN)
Texas at Missouri Texas by 0.3 Texas -13 Missouri
UNLV at New Mexico UNLV by 1.1 UNLV -1 UNLV (WIN)
9:15pm Arizona State at Stanford Stanford by 4.7 Stanford -6.5 ASU
9:15pm Fresno State at New Mexico State FSU by 17.7 FSU -23.5 NMSU
10:05pm Boise State at Hawaii Boise by 16.0 Boise -25 Hawaii
  • Once again, no conference is crazier than the Pac-10, where the bottom half just continues to shuffle around and make no sense.  UCLA-Arizona is a complete mystery, as is Cal.  Thanks to gigantic eggs laid against Oregon and USC, Cal's projections aren't that hot...but they've looked really, really good against everybody else.  I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they beat Wazzu by about 85, but again, the projections take the whole season into account.  Numbers don't deal well with schizophrenia.
  • The numbers have hitched their wagon to the Virginia turnaround, and so far they've been spot-on.  Still, though...beating Georgia Tech?  Huh.
  • Rutgers disclaimer: why are they projected to lose to Army by 8?  Because they've played two FCS teams (not just FCS teams, god-awful ones), and it's completely wrecked their SOS.  They're not good, but they're probably not that bad.  Buyer beware on that one.

Gotta say...the iffy week last week shook me up, and I'm wary about quite a few of these picks.  Then again, if not for the closest of close misses, I'd have been right at the 60% I'm used to, so who beware of the disclaimers I missed above, and just for your own sanity, if you're betting, avoid the Pac-10 at all costs.