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BTBS Week 6 Picks!

I wanted to make sure tigers and chiefs fan got what was needed before the big trip to Vegas, so you get this post on a Tuesday for once!  Don't get used to it!

Last Week: Last week was...well, it was a strangely consistent week.  If reliability made you extra money in Vegas, then back-to-back weeks of 31-18-1 and 31-19 would make you a millionaire, I guess.  Anyway, quite a few near-misses on last week's dance card made for another 60% week.  We'll see if what is basically the first week of full-on conference play changes things.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 31-19 (62.0%) 141-91-2 (60.7%)
Big 12 6-0 (100.0%)
25-14-1 (63.8%)
"LOCKS" 3-1 (75.0%)
15-9-1 (62.0%)

Some ship-righting there with the Big 12 every category--All, Big 12, and LOCKS--are between 57% and 60%.  We'll just ignore that "Locks" are, in theory, supposed to be more successful than the others.

As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thursday, 10/8 8:00pm Nebraska at Missouri Missouri by 0.4 Missouri +3! Missouri
Saturday, 10/10 11:30am Oklahoma State at Texas A&M OSU by 3.1 OSU -5
11:30am Iowa State at Kansas KU by 18.2 KU -20 ISU (WIN)
2:30pm Baylor at Oklahoma OU by 32.1 OU -24.5 OU (WIN)
6:00pm Kansas State at Texas Tech Tech by 16.4 Tech -16.5! K-State
6:15pm Colorado at Texas Texas by 28.2 Texas -32 CU (WIN)
  • The underdog is picked against the spread in four of five games there, which always makes me a bit uncomfortable, but every time I express said discomfort, it works out fine, so...I'm uncomfortable!

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thursday, 10/8 8:00pm Nebraska at Missouri Missouri by 0.4 Missouri +3 Missouri
Friday, 10/9 8:00pm Louisiana Tech at Nevada Nevada by 17.6 Nevada -10.5 Nevada (WIN)
Saturday, 10/10 11:00am Auburn at Arkansas Arkansas by 4.9 Arky +2.5 Arky (WIN)
Boston College at Virginia Tech VT by 12.2 VT -13.5 BC
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU by 13.2 CMU -23 EMU
Eastern Illinois at Penn State Penn State by 63.3 N/A
Miami-OH at Northwestern NW'ern by 9.6 NW'ern -19.5 Miami (WIN)
Michigan State at Illinois MSU by 1.5 MSU -4.5 Illinois
Purdue at Minnesota Minnesota by 2.5 Minnesota -3.5 Purdue
Vanderbilt at Army Vandy by 2.9 Vandy -10.5 Army (WIN)
West Virginia at Syracuse WVU by 7.2 WVU -10 Syracuse
11:21am Georgia at Tennessee Vols by 8.6 Vols -1.5 Vols (WIN)
11:30am Houston at Mississippi State Houston by 8.0 Houston -1.5 Houston (WIN)
Iowa State at Kansas Kansas by 18.2 Kansas -20 ISU (WIN)
Kentucky at South Carolina S. Caro. by 3.1 S. Caro. -10.5 UK (WIN)
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M OSU by 3.1 OSU -5
12:00pm Ball State at Temple Temple by 7.6 Temple -13.5 BSU (WIN)
1:00pm New Mexico at Wyoming Wyoming by 7.8 Wyoming -10.5 UNM
2:30pm Alabama at Ole Miss 'Bama by 13.9 'Bama -6.5 'Bama (WIN)
Baylor at Oklahoma OU by 32.1 OU -24.5 OU (WIN)
Bowling Green at Kent State BGSU by 3.3 BGSU -4 KSU (WIN)
Connecticut at Pittsburgh Pitt by 0.3 Pitt -8 UConn (WIN)
Georgia Southern at North Carolina UNC by 33.7 N/A
Gardner-Webb at Buffalo Buffalo by 29.4 N/A
Texas Southern at Rutgers Rutgers by 46.0 N/A
Indiana at Virginia UVa by 15.9 UVa -6.5 UVa (WIN)
Marshall at Tulane Tulane by 1.2 Tulane +1.2 Tulane
Navy at Rice Navy by 5.3 Navy -11.5 Rice
Oregon at UCLA Oregon by 3.3 Oregon -6.5 UCLA
Wisconsin at Ohio State tOSU by 13.7 tOSU -16 Wisconsin
3:00pm Duke at N.C. State NC State by 22.7 NC State -14.5 NC State
4:00pm Arizona State at Washington State Wazzu by 2.4 Wazzu +20.5 WAZZU (WIN)
5:00pm Ohio at Akron Akron by 0.3 Akron +4 Akron
Utah at Colorado State Utah by 5.2 Utah -7.5 CSU (WIN)
5:30pm Maryland at Wake Forest Wake by 8.4 Wake -11 Maryland (WIN)
6:00pm Florida A&M at Miami-FL Miami by 65.2 N/A
Florida International at W. Kentucky FIU by 0.2 FIU -3.5 WKU
Kansas State at Texas Tech Tech by 16.4 Tech -16.5 KSU
North Texas at UL-Lafayette ULL by 5.1 ULL -5.5 UNT (WIN)
Stanford at Oregon State Ore. St. by 15.3 Ore. St. +2 Ore. St. (WIN)
Western Michigan at Toledo Toledo by 15.7 Toledo -8.5 Toledo
6:15pm Colorado at Texas Texas by 28.2 Texas -32 CU (WIN)
6:30pm Southern Miss at Louisville Louisville by 0.3 USM -2.5
Louisville (WIN)
TCU at Air Force TCU by 16.0 TCU -10 TCU
7:00pm East Carolina at SMU ECU by 4.3 ECU -6.5 SMU (WIN)
Florida at LSU Florida by 17.7 Florida -7 Florida (WIN)
Georgia Tech at Florida State FSU by 5.6 FSU -2.5 FSU
Idaho at San Jose State SJSU by 7.7 SJSU -4 SJSU
Utah State at New Mexico State USU by 9.9 USU -12 NMSU (WIN)
UTEP at Memphis Memphis by 0.7 Memphis +2.5 Memphis (WIN)
7:05pm Michigan at Iowa Iowa by 12.7 Iowa -8 Iowa
9:00pm Arizona at Washington UW by 6.1 UW +3 UW (WIN)
BYU at UNLV BYU by 20.5 BYU -16.5 BYU (WIN)
10:05pm Fresno State at Hawaii Fresno by 12.5 Fresno -9.5 Fresno (WIN)
Tuesday, 10/13 7:00pm Arkansas State at UL-Monroe ULM by 8.0 ? ?
  • Some mighty big blowouts predicted in the Penn State and Miami games, huh?
  • Army picked to cover against Vanderbilt...I don't really like that pick, but that makes sense considering I haven't gotten a Vandy game right yet this year.
  • The numbers REALLY seem to think Stanford is a house of cards right now...not giving them any love.  Meanwhile, Arizona State is now projected to go 0-9 in the Pac-10.  Needless to say, the trip to Pullman should pretty well establish who's the team to beat in the "last in the Pac-10" race.
  • Here's a good to mention again that anybody who has played Florida has seen their strength-of-schedule numbers disproportionally skew upward because of how far Florida is ranked ahead of everybody else.  That is likely skewing Tennessee's and Kentucky's numbers too positively.  (That's a big "Don't bet on the UGa-UT or UK-SC games!!!" hint, t&c fan.)
  • What kind of effect do you think the "Bowden needs to retire!" talk will have on FSU this weekend?  Clearly the cold, emotionless projections have nothing to say about that, but you do figure that's worth at least a touchdown whether they band together or fall apart.
  • As soon as I find spreads for the OSU-ATM, USM-Louisville, and ASU-ULM games, I will add them to the list.