Last Week: 30-20-2. Hooray! Now that the outdated preseason projections were removed from the equation, we got back on the winning track.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 30-20-2 (59.6%) | 275-215-8 (56.0%) |
| Big 12 | 4-2 (66.7%) | 38-30-2 (55.7%) |
| "LOCKS" | 0-2-1 (16.7%) | 26-24-2 (51.9%) |
I've come up with a theory on why the "LOCKS" are doing so terribly. At this point in the season, the projections and the lines are agreeing with each other quite a bit (see my response to the picks at the bottom of this post). The Vegas line is going to take into account things like injuries and suspensions, while this year my numbers do not (one of about 14,000 offseason projects is to figure out the best way to assign at least an approximate point value to different injuries). Therefore, at this point in the season, the large disagreements are going to most likely be caused by some change in the space-time continuum that I did not account for.
At least that's what I'm saying right now.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Sat., 11/14 | 11:00am | Texas at Baylor | Texas by 17.1 | Texas -24 | |
| 11:30am | Missouri at Kansas State | Missouri by 7.2 | Missouri +1 |
Missouri (WIN) |
|
| 1:00pm | Colorado at Iowa State | ISU by 8.5 | ISU -5.5 |
ISU (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm | Nebraska at Kansas | NU by 6.0 | NU -3.5 |
NU (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Texas A&M at Oklahoma | OU by 27.6 | OU -20 |
OU (WIN) |
|
| 7:00pm | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | OSU by 14.7 | OSU -4 |
OSU (WIN) |
- I believe the MU-KSU projection last week was Mizzou by about 9 or so, so Mizzou's loss to Baylor and KSU's win over KU closed the gap by a couple of points. As we'll discuss in the BTBS preview tomorrow, KSU is clearly trending upward while...well, Mizzou is trending down, but not as much as one would think. Still, if I were to take momentum into account (I don't), the projection would likely be closer. That said, Mizzou is still statistically the better team, so the projection doesn't surprise me all that much.
- Nothing else here really jumps out as altogether surprising. You'd figure UT would be projected to win by more than 17, really, and OSU's projection is a bit high, but nothing crazy.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Wed., 11/11 | 7:00pm | Toledo at Central Michigan | CMU by 16.2 | CMU -17 | |
| Thurs., 11/12 | 5:00pm | Ball State at Northern Illinois | NIU by 16.0 | NIU -17 |
BSU (WIN) |
| Bowling Green at Miami-OH | M-OH by 0.3 | M-OH +3.5 | |||
| 6:30pm | South Florida at Rutgers | USF by 8.0 | USF -1 | ||
| Fri., 11/13 | 7:00pm | West Virginia at Cincinnati | Cincy by 15.1 | Cincy -9 | |
| 7:30pm | Temple at Akron | Akron by 1.6 | Akron +4 | ||
| Sat., 11/14 | 11:00am | Clemson at N.C. State | Clemson by 19.2 | Clemson -8 |
Clemson (WIN) |
| South Dakota St. at Minnesota | Minny by 27.5 | N/A | |||
| VMI at Army | Army by 19.9 | N/A | |||
| Florida State at Wake Forest | Wake by 5.5 | Wake -5 | |||
| Georgia Tech at Duke | GT by 16.7 | GT -13 |
GT (WIN) |
||
| Houston at Central Florida | Houston by 1.0 | Houston -5 |
UCF (WIN) |
||
| Indiana at Penn State | PSU by 35.9 | PSU -25.5 | |||
| Michigan at Wisconsin | Wiscy by 20.5 | Wiscy -8.5 |
Wiscy (WIN) |
||
| Michigan State at Purdue | Purdue by 8.7 | Purdue +2.5 |
|
||
| Northwestern at Illinois | Illinois by 9.8 | Illinois -4.5 | |||
| Syracuse at Louisville | Louisville by 8.4 | Louisville -7.5 | |||
| Tennessee at Ole Miss | Vols by 10.0 | Vols +4.5 | |||
| Texas at Baylor | Texas by 17.1 | Texas -24 | |||
| 11:21am | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | UK by 4.7 | UK -3 |
UK (WIN) |
|
| 11:30am | Missouri at Kansas State | Mizzou by 7.2 | Mizzou +1 |
Mizzou (WIN) |
|
| 12:00pm | Virginia Tech at Maryland | VT by 23.6 | VT -17.5 |
VT (WIN) |
|
| Western Mich. at Eastern Mich. | WMU by 2.2 | WMU -12.5 | |||
| 1:00pm | BYU at New Mexico | BYU by 17.0 | BYU -26.5 |
UNM (WIN) |
|
| Colorado at Iowa State | ISU by 8.5 | ISU -5.5 |
ISU (WIN) |
||
| UAB at Memphis | Memphis by 1.9 | Memphis +1 | Memphis | ||
| 2:00pm | San Jose State at Utah State | USU by 12.4 | USU -12.5 | ||
| UTEP at SMU | SMU by 1.0 | SMU -8 |
UTEP (WIN) |
||
| 2:30pm | Boston College at Virginia | UVa by 5.6 (?) | UVa +4.5 |
UVa (WIN) |
|
| Delaware at Navy | Navy by 21.1 | N/A | |||
| Florida at South Carolina | Florida by 16.3 | Florida -15.5 | |||
| Idaho at Boise State | Boise by 34.9 | Boise -31 |
Boise (WIN) |
||
| Iowa at Ohio State | tOSU by 11.7 | tOSU -16.5 |
Iowa (WIN) |
||
| Miami-FL at North Carolina | Miami by 9.5 | Miami -3 |
|
||
| Nebraska at Kansas | NU by 6.0 | NU -3.5 |
NU (WIN) |
||
| Stanford at USC | USC by 10.7 | USC -11 |
Stanford (WIN) |
||
| Tulane at Rice | Rice by 1.7 | Rice -2.5 | |||
| Washington at Oregon State | OSU by 12.8 | OSU -12 |
OSU (WIN) |
||
| 3:00pm | Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic | FAU by 13.1 | FAU +3.5 | FAU (WIN) |
|
| Fresno State at Nevada | Nevada by 8.5 | Nevada -7 |
Nevada (WIN) |
||
| W'ern Kentucky at UL-Monroe | ULM by 12.7 | ULM -21.5 |
WKU (WIN) |
||
| 3:15pm | UL-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee | MTSU by 19.7 | MTSU -13 |
MTSU (WIN) |
|
| 3:30pm | Southern Miss at Marshall | Marshall by 7.4 | Marshall +3 | ||
| 4:00pm | UCLA at Washington State | UCLA by 24.0 | UCLA -17 |
UCLA (WIN) |
|
| 5:00pm | UNLV at Air Force | AFA by 18.2 | AFA -17 |
AFA (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Alabama at Mississippi State | 'Bama by 21.5 | 'Bama -12.5 |
'Bama (WIN) |
|
| Auburn at Georgia | Auburn by 1.4 | Auburn +4 | |||
| Louisiana Tech at LSU | LSU by 25.6 | LSU -24.5 | |||
| North Texas at Florida International | FIU by 0.7 | FIU -2 | |||
| Texas A&M at Oklahoma | OU by 27.6 | OU -20 |
OU (WIN) |
||
| 6:30pm | Troy at Arkansas | Arkansas by 15.1 | Arkansas -13.5 |
Arkansas (WIN) |
|
| Utah at TCU | TCU by 27.0 (!) | TCU -19.5 |
TCU (WIN) |
||
| 7:00pm | Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | Pitt by 2.4 | Pitt -7 |
ND (WIN) |
|
| Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | OSU by 14.7 | OSU -4 | OSU (WIN) | ||
| 9:00pm | Wyoming at San Diego State | SDSU by 7.3 | SDSU -7.5 |
Wyoming (WIN) |
|
| 9:05pm | New Mexico State at Hawaii | Hawaii by 26.5 | Hawaii -20 | ||
| 9:20pm | Arizona at California | Arizona by 1.1 | Arizona +1 | ||
| Arizona State at Oregon | Oregon by 29.2 | Oregon -17 | Oregon | ||
| Sun., 11/15 | 7:15pm | East Carolina at Tulsa | Tulsa by 17.0 | Tulsa -5 | Tulsa |
- Man oh MAN are the projections and lines agreeing with each other a lot. Only two "LOCKS" (which means the projections and spread disagree by 13 or more), and 17 games where projection and spread disagree by 2 points or less? That makes me feel good about the straight-up picks and quite shaky about the ATS picks. One field goal either way could decide which way the pick goes.
- Needless to say, this will be an interesting test of my numbers' love of all things Tennessee. And...really? Virginia getting love again? I thought we'd moved past that...
- Sitting at 30-23 after a ROUGH (5-12) start...