WOW did Vegas violate me six ways to Sunday last week...a multitude of leads flipped at the last minute, and after fighting back from a 2-5 start to move to 13-9 mid-day, I finished on an amazing 6-24 run to end the day. SIX AND FREAKING TWENTY-FOUR. A freaking coin flip would have done better. As The Beef said when I was crying to him about it, Vegas is a fickle mistress. Come back to me, Vegas, come back to me. Let's finish strong.
Last Week: horrid start, decent middle, so-bad-I-checked-to-see-if-I-was-bleeding finish.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 19-33 (36.5%) |
325-274-8 (54.2%) |
| Big 12 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 45-35-2 (56.1%) |
| "LOCKS" | 2-4 (33.3%) | 29-29-2 (50.0%) |
As you'll see after the jump, a whopping 21 games are projected within three points of the spread, meaning there really aren't many smart bets at all at this point. Vegas really does have a good read on most teams right now, and I'm believing more and more that Bill Simmons was basically right -- that money is won at the beginning of the season before Vegas has everything figured out. After that, good luck. Here's my proof:
My Projections Versus the Spread
September: 141-91-2 (60.7%)
October: 104-104-4 (50.0%)
November Thus Far: 80-79-4 (50.3%)
I had something nice early on and have been treading water ever since. This is, again, my first stab at this, so I do think something more along the lines of 65%-55%-55% (Sept-Oct-Nov) might be attainable for next year, but ... Vegas is Vegas for a reason. To find a successful system, I think you need to a) make really good projections, AND b) pick your spots. I'm doubting I can do better than 60% ATS when picking all games.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 11/26 | 7:00pm | Texas at Texas A&M | UT by 26.6 | UT -21.5 | |
| Fri., 11/27 | 2:30pm | Nebraska at Colorado | NU by 12.8 | NU -10 | |
| Sat., 11/28 | 11:30am | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | OU by 24.3 | OU -9.5 | OU |
| 2:30pm | Missouri vs Kansas | Mizzou by 4.7 | Mizzou -3 | Mizzou | |
| 5:00pm | Texas Tech vs Baylor | Tech by 14.2 | Tech -20.5 | Baylor |
- Not a lot of upset potential here. The numbers have had a crush on OU all year, as evidenced by the fact that they're still supposed to win big (thank you, Owen Field home field adjustment) despite the rather pitiful showing against Tech last week. Meanwhile, Texas is supposed to handle ATM easily, NU is supposed to handle CU reasonably easy (though one should never underestimate the "Playing to save the coach" factor...just ask Missouri 2006 versus Iowa State...or potentially Missouri 2009 versus Kansas...wait, did I just say that out loud?). Baylor is expected to make it more of a game than the spread would suggest, but we'll see.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 11/26 | 7:00pm | Texas at Texas A&M | UT by 26.6 | UT -21.5 | |
| Fri., 11/27 | 10:00am! | Rutgers at Louisville | Louisville by 11.4 | Louisville +3 | |
| Temple at Ohio | Ohio by 2.9 | Ohio +3 |
Ohio (WIN) |
||
| 11:00am | Illinois at Cincinnati | Cincy by 29.6 | Cincy -20.5 | ||
| 12:00pm | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | CMU by 10.8 | CMU -13 | ||
| 1:00pm | Buffalo at Kent State | Buffalo by 1.3 | Buffalo -3 | Kent St. (TIE) |
|
| Eastern Michigan at Akron | Akron by 12.9 | Akron -16.5 |
EMU (WIN) |
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| Toledo at Bowling Green | BGSU by 13.0 | BGSU -7.5 |
BGSU (WIN) |
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| Wyoming at Colorado State | CSU by 13.9 | CSU -3 | |||
| 1:30pm | Alabama at Auburn | 'Bama by 19.4 | 'Bama -10 | ||
| 2:30pm | Memphis at Tulsa | Tulsa by 17.1 | Tulsa -16.5 | ||
| Nebraska at Colorado | NU by 12.8 | NU -10 | |||
| 6:00pm | Pittsburgh at West Virginia | WVU by 3.3 | PK |
WVU (WIN) |
|
| 9:00pm | Nevada at Boise State | Boise by 24.0 | Boise -13.5 | ||
| Sat., 11/28 | 11:00am | Clemson at South Carolina | SC by 4.5 | SC +3 | SC |
| North Carolina at N.C. State | UNC by 10.0 | UNC -5.5 | UNC | ||
| Syracuse at UConn | UConn by 15.4 | UConn -13.5 | UConn | ||
| Wake Forest at Duke | Wake by 7.7 | Wake -4.5 | Wake | ||
| 11:21am | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | Ole Miss by 0.3 | Ole Miss -8 | Miss. St. | |
| 11:30am | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | OU by 24.3 | OU -9.5 | OU | |
| 12:00pm | New Mexico at TCU | TCU by 46.5 | TCU -45 | TCU | |
| 12:30pm | Central Florida at UAB | UAB by 0.2 | UAB +3 | UAB | |
| Southern Miss at East Carolina | ECU by 10.3 | ECU -5.5 | ECU | ||
| 2:00pm | Marshall at UTEP | UTEP by 9.6 | UTEP -1.5 | UTEP | |
| North Texas at Arkansas State | ASU by 9.1 | ASU -7.5 | ASU | ||
| Tulane at SMU | SMU by 16.5 | SMU -17.5 | Tulane | ||
| 2:30pm | Arizona at Arizona State | Arizona by 1.3 | Arizona -2.5 | ASU | |
| Boston College at Maryland | BC by 7.3 | BC -6.5 | BC | ||
| Florida State at Florida | UF by 28.3 | UF -24 | UF | ||
| Miami-FL at South Florida | Miami by 4.6 | Miami -5.5 | USF | ||
| Missouri vs Kansas | Mizzou by 4.7 | Mizzou -3 | Mizzou | ||
| Virginia Tech at Virginia | VT by 18.3 | VT -16 | VT | ||
| 3:00pm | Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic | FAU by 16.1 | FAU -14 | FAU | |
| 3:30pm | Middle Tennessee at UL-Monroe | ULM by 2.0 | ULM +3.5 | ULM | |
| 4:00pm | Utah at BYU | BYU by 11.4 | BYU -7.5 | BYU | |
| Utah State at Idaho | Idaho by 13.3 | Idaho -2 | Idaho | ||
| 5:00pm | Texas Tech vs Baylor | Tech by 14.2 | Tech -20.5 | Baylor | |
| 5:30pm | Washington State at Washington | UW by 22.5 | UW -24.5 | Wazzu | |
| 6:00pm | Arkansas at LSU | Arkansas by 1.3 | Arkansas +3.5 | Arkansas | |
| Tennessee at Kentucky | Vols by 8.2 | Vols -3 | Vols | ||
| Troy at UL-Lafayette | Troy by 7.9 | Troy -9.5 | ULL | ||
| 7:00pm | Georgia at Georgia Tech | GT by 5.2 | GT -7 | UGa | |
| New Mexico St. at San Jose St. | SJSU by 19.9 | SJSU -10.5 | SJSU | ||
| Notre Dame at Stanford | Stanford by 3.3 | Stanford -10.5 | ND | ||
| Rice at Houston | Houston by 29.3 | Houston -30 | Rice | ||
| 8:00pm | San Diego State at UNLV | UNLV by 8.1 | UNLV -6 | UNLV | |
| 9:00pm | UCLA at USC | USC by 10.9 | USC -13 | UCLA | |
| 9:30pm | Navy at Hawaii | Hawaii by 4.0 | Hawaii +9.5 | Hawaii |
- 4-9-1 on Thursday/Friday. Missed Boise, Nebraska, Bama, and NIU by three points or less. Bitches, man.