On we roll...
Last Week: We crept back over .500 last week, which is good I guess. Sometime last week, I started reaching a conclusion that Bill Simmons reinforced in his weekend NFL picks column. The fact is, the spreads are a whole lot tougher in late-October and November than in September and early-October. I really want to be doing better than 50%, and I think 55%-60% is still possible, for the rest of this year (until I can update my methods) I'll take anything over 50% as victory. And just looking at how tight a lot of my projections are compared to the spread, some good or bad breaks could make a pretty humongous difference this week.
(Meanwhile, knock on wood, but my overall struggles haven't translated to my ten-per-week FO picks, in which I've gone 14-6 over the last two weeks. Again, KNOCK ON WOOD. In fact, why did I even bring this up with my amazing jinx power?? I suck.)
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 27-26 (50.9%) | 245-195-6 (55.6%) |
| Big 12 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 34-28-2 (54.7%) |
| "LOCKS" | 6-4 (60.0%) | 26-22-1 (54.1%) |
Yep, the "LOCKS" are still anything but.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Sat., 11/7 | 11:00am | Central Florida at Texas | UT by 32.2 | UT -34.5 |
UCF (WIN) |
| 11:30am | Kansas at Kansas State | KU by 4 | KU -3 | ||
| 12:30pm | Texas A&M at Colorado | ATM by 3.5 | ATM -5 |
CU (WIN) |
|
| 1:00pm | Baylor at Missouri | Mizzou by 16.5 | Mizzou -17 |
Baylor (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | ISU by 3.0 (?) | ISU +7.5 | ||
| 7:00pm | Oklahoma at Nebraska | NU by 6.1 | NU +6 |
NU (WIN) |
- My professional recommendation: lay off of all of these games, particularly the first four. It makes me feel pretty confident in the quality of my picks with how close they are to the spread in most cases, but...those first four are TOO close to the spread.
- Meanwhile, the last two picks are interesting to say the least.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 11/5 | 6:30pm | Virginia Tech at East Carolina | VT by 24.0 | VT -11.5 |
VT (WIN) |
| Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois | NIU by 17.1 | NIU -21 | |||
| Miami-OH at Temple | Temple by 7.0 | Temple -14 |
M-OH (WIN) |
||
| Fri., 11/6 | 7:00pm | Boise State at Louisiana Tech | Boise by 11.7 | Boise -21 |
La Tech (WIN) |
| Sat., 11/7 | 11:00am | Central Florida at Texas | UT by 32.2 | UT -34.5 |
UCF (WIN) |
| Illinois at Minnesota | Minny by 17.8 | Minny -6 | |||
| Louisville at West Virginia | WVU by 18.2 | WVU -19.5 |
L'ville (WIN) |
||
| Northwestern at Iowa | Iowa by 31.8 | Iowa -17.5 | |||
| Purdue at Michigan | UM by 2.5 | UM -4 |
Purdue (WIN) |
||
| Syracuse at Pittsburgh | Pitt by 13.4 | Pitt -20.5 | |||
| Virginia at Miami-FL | Miami by 21.8 | Miami -13.5 |
Miami (WIN) |
||
| W'ern Michigan at Michigan State | MSU by 25.2 | MSU -18 |
MSU (WIN) |
||
| Wisconsin at Indiana | Wiscy by 15.8 | Wiscy -11 | |||
| 11:21am | South Carolina at Arkansas | Hogs by 8.8 | Hogs -5.5 |
Hogs (WIN) |
|
| 11:30am | Kansas at Kansas State | KU by 4.0 | KU -3 | ||
| 12:00pm | Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky | UK by 23.8 | N/A | ||
| Tennessee Tech at Georgia | UGa by 46.2 | N/A | |||
| Maryland at N.C. State | NC St by 2.2 | NC St -7 | Maryland (TIE) |
||
| 12:30pm | Furman at Auburn | Auburn by 29.4 | N/A | ||
| 12:30pm | Texas A&M at Colorado | ATM by 3.5 | ATM -5 |
CU (WIN) |
|
| 1:00pm | Baylor at Missouri | Mizzou by 16.5 | Mizzou -17 |
Baylor (WIN) |
|
| BYU at Wyoming | BYU by 7.6 | BYU -13 | |||
| Florida Atlantic at UAB | FAU by 2.2 | FAU +5 | |||
| 1:30pm | Navy at Notre Dame | ND by 8.8 | ND -11 |
Navy (WIN) |
|
| 2:00pm | Rice at SMU | SMU by 20.8 | SMU -18 | ||
| 2:30pm | Army at Air Force | AFA by 28.1 | AFA -17 |
AFA (WIN) |
|
| Duke at North Carolina | UNC by 13.2 | UNC -8.5 |
UNC (WIN) |
||
| Kent State at Akron | Akron by 4.9 | Akron +3 |
Akron (WIN) |
||
| LSU at Alabama | 'Bama by 23.4 | 'Bama -9 | 'BAMA (TIE) |
||
| Ohio State at Penn State | PSU by 15.9 | PSU -4 | |||
| Oklahoma State at Iowa State | ISU by 3.0 | ISU +7.5 | |||
| Oregon at Stanford | Ducks by 17.7 | Ducks -5 | |||
| UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State | ASU by 17.9 | ASU -12 | |||
| UTEP at Tulane | Tulane by 1.7 | Tulane +7 |
Tulane (WIN) |
||
| Wake Forest at Georgia Tech | GT by 11.1 | GT -15 |
Wake (WIN) |
||
| Washington at UCLA | UCLA by 9.1 | UCLA -4 | |||
| Washington State at Arizona | Arizona by 31.7 | Arizona -31 |
Arizona (WIN) |
||
| 3:00pm | TCU at San Diego State | TCU by 20.2 | TCU -24.5 | ||
| 3:30pm | Florida Int'l at Middle Tennessee | MTSU by 20.8 | MTSU -12.5 |
MTSU (WIN) |
|
| 4:00pm | Troy at Western Kentucky | Troy by 15.9 | Troy -24 |
WKU (WIN) |
|
| 5:00pm | New Mexico at Utah | Utah by 30.9 | Utah -27 |
Utah (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Memphis at Tennessee | Vols by 37.3 | Vols -26 |
Vols (WIN) |
|
| Oregon State at California | Cal by 4.6 | Cal -7 |
OSU (WIN) |
||
| 6:15pm | Vanderbilt at Florida | UF by 50.4 | UF -32.5 | ||
| 6:30pm | Northern Arizona at Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 32.1 | N/A | ||
| Houston at Tulsa | Tulsa by 3.9 | Tulsa +1.5 |
Tulsa (WIN) |
||
| 6:45pm | Florida State at Clemson | Clemson by 14.7 | Clemson -8.5 |
Clemson (WIN) |
|
| 7:00pm | Connecticut at Cincinnati | Cincy by 22.4 | Cincy -16.5 |
||
| Oklahoma at Nebraska | NU by 6.1 | NU +6 |
NU (WIN) |
||
| USC at Arizona State | USC by 7.9 | USC -11 |
ASU (WIN) |
||
| 9:00pm | Colorado State at UNLV | CSU by 7.1 | CSU -1.5 | ||
| 9:05pm | Utah State at Hawaii | Hawaii by 11.7 | Hawaii -3 |
Hawaii (WIN) |
|
| 9:30pm | Fresno State at Idaho | Fresno by 4.7 | Fresno -7 | ||
| Sun., 11/8 | 7:30pm | Nevada at San Jose State | SJSU by 2.7 | SJSU +13 | SJSU |
- Not a ton of "LOCKS" this week, though I'm sure I've missed a couple. Loved the "Florida by 50" projection. I know Florida's catching some crap for not living up to expectations, but again...they and Alabama are so far ahead of everybody else in the rankings. The only reason they've seemed disappointing is that they were supposed to be the most recent G.O.A.T., and they're only really good instead.
- 28-18-2 for the week.
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