clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

It bears mentioning...

...that at this moment, three-fourths of the way through the conference season, Missouri controls its own destiny for the Big 12 title thanks to Texas' win over Oklahoma.  Now, "destiny" requires Mizzou to win in Allen Field House, where they haven't won since Jeff Hafer was blocking shots there, not to mention beating KSU and OU at home and winning in College Station, but the fact remains: Missouri controls its own destiny right now.  I have to let that sink in for a bit.

UPDATE, 11:08pm:  Based off of Ken Pom's game odds and my own understanding of the tie-breakers, here are the odds for each possible finish in the now-3-way race for the Big 12 title based on the nine remaining games that involve these three teams.

1) Missouri, 2) Kansas, 3) Oklahoma: 8.1%
1) Missouri, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Kansas: 14.6%
1) Kansas, 2) Missouri, 3) Oklahoma: 17.8%
1) Kansas, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Missouri: 15.8%
1) Oklahoma, 2) Missouri, 3) Kansas: 10.8%
1) Oklahoma, 2) Kansas, 3) Missouri: 32.8%

Or, put another way...

MU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 22.7%
KU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 33.6%
OU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 43.6%

Now, this is dependent on Blake Griffin (and everybody else) being healthy for all future games, and we'll see what happens with that.  If Griffin misses Monday night's OU-KU game (and I doubt it), obviously the odds shift a bit in KU's favor.  Uphill battle for Missouri, obviously, but...well...in most seasons, Mizzou's odds with four games remaining are somewhere between 0.1% and -11.0%.

(No, I don't know how you could have a negative percent chance, but if anybody could figure out how to do it, it would be Mizzou...)

Oh, and if you were wanting to know who to root for Monday night...

MU's odds of winning the Big 12 title if KU beats OU: 21.7%
OU's odds of winning the Big 12 title if OU beats KU: 23.3%.

Go OU!  We want that 1.6%!