Oklahoma State: Know Your Rival

Once again, a fast run-through...

vs Big 12
Oklahoma State: 11-7

• Where OSU's good: Free Throw Shooting, Defensive Rebounding, 3-point shooting
  
• Where OSU's not as good: 3-point defense, Offensive Rebounding
• You do NOT want to get into a free throw shooting contest with them.  Especially when you're Missouri.
• Solid BCI for OSU, average BCI allowed.

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

• This is a strict 8-man rotation with the "is that really how you spell his name" Malcoln Kirkland filling in as a 9th man if absolutely necessary.  Do the math.  Eight guys, 400 minutes of basketball played in the last two nights.  They play fast, and they try to wear you down, only that's Missouri's strength too.
• Marshall Moses has really done well down the stretch (last night's 0-point, 5-foul implosion aside).  In the six games before last night, he was averaging 11.5 PPG and 10.3 RPG.  He's short (6'6) but beefy (235), and he's learning how to use his size.  He's EXTREMELY foul-prone, however, and if I'm Mike Anderson, I'm sending Leo Lyons, who draws three fouls simply going to the bathroom, at him early and often.

Keys to the Game

1. Penetration and free throws.  If OSU starts falling back on the 3-point shot, I don't think their legs will be with them enough down the stretch, and they will falter.  But if they're getting into the lane, drawing fouls and making mid-range jumpers (an Eaton specialty), they can not only get Mizzou into foul trouble and rack up points, but they can get more rest periods in.  The more fouls and stoppages, the better for OSU.
   
   
2. Rebounding.  If Marshall Moses can hold his own (and stay on the court) inside, and OSU can stay close in the rebounding department (as they did at Gallagher-Iba), they'll stay in the game, as I expect there to be quite a few missed shots on both sides of the court.  But if Moses is in foul trouble, or he's just getting dominated by Lyons/Carroll/etc., then OSU can't keep up unless somebody gets scorching hot from outside.
   
   
3. Turnovers.  Always.  No explanation needed.  OSU had 19 of them when these two teams played in Stillwater, and they very nearly got run off the court in their own building before very nearly coming all the way back to steal a win.  It was hard to get a feel for the matchups in that game because Mizzou was ridiculously hot for a while, and then OSU was ridiculously hot at the end, but OSU's guards seem high-risk, high-reward.  Depending on the level of risk and reward, this could be a very interesting game.
   

Prediction

No prediction.  I suck at them.  Just know that OSU will likely come out hot and lively, and the game might end up being determined by how hot they're allowed to get, and whether they're able to build a cushion.  I do not think their legs will be under them in the second half, but if they can build a lead and Mizzou misses some shots, OSU will have a solid shot of winning.

And by now, you know how Mizzou games unfold.  As was mentioned in other threads, Mizzou is 1-5 when trailing by double digits at half, 25-1 when not.  That's as telling a differential as you're ever going to see.  If OSU can get hot early and make Mizzou play from behind, they're a good enough free throw shooting team that they might pull off the win.  But if Mizzou's up heading toward halftime, OSU's got a MONSTROUS hike ahead of them, and weary legs carrying them up the hill.