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Bowling Green: 2009 Projections

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Alright, it's Friday, which means two things. 1) It's Front Page Friday, and 2) It's time for some projections! As with last week, I used my rough, to-be-tweaked-another-thousand-times projections system to figure out BGSU's likely record this year. Judging by what you've read this week--BGSU Links, Offensive Preview, Defensive Preview, Better Know an Opponent--what do you think?

Date Opponent Proj. W/L Margin Record Conf. Rec.
9/3 Troy L -1.0 0-1
9/12 at Missouri L -19.2 0-2
9/19 at Marshall L -7.7 0-3
9/26 Boise State L -15.1 0-4
10/3 Ohio W +8.4 1-4 1-0
10/10 at Kent State W +1.3 2-4 2-0
10/17 at Ball State L -1.4 2-5 2-1
10/24 Central Michigan W +1.3 3-5 3-1
11/3 at Buffalo W +1.8 4-5 4-1
11/12 at Miami-OH W +2.0 5-5 5-1
11/20 Akron W +7.2 6-5 6-1
11/27 Toledo L -1.0 6-6 6-2

The 6-2 record wins their division, and they lose by 2.7 to Central Michigan in the MAC title game.

Thoughts? From what you've read this week, would you expect more from them (like wins over Troy, Ball State, and/or Toledo) or less (like losses to Central Michigan, Buffalo, Miami-OH)?