With Kansas State Week wrapping up, it looks like the Unholy Alliance goes on hiatus for a while...oh who am I kidding, the Unholy Alliance never goes on hiatus.
I'm not going to lie: K-State's BTBS projections are potentially the most surprising of anybody's (well...then again, CU's 2-10 projection was rather surprising too). Here's a reminder of how the projections are determined: I start with last year's Offensive and Defensive S&P+, I apply percentage increases or decreases based on the projections of my FO colleague Brian Fremeau, I boil things down to a relative point value, and I project the games. It's still very much in an inexact stage because I clearly don't know if certain factors (returning starters, 5-year history, etc.) will affect my S&P+ ratings in the same way as Fremeau's FEI numbers, but it's a start. And it should be, at the very least, at least a hint that Colorado might be worse than expected and K-State better.
Before we get to the BTBS projections, here's K-State Week in review:
- Monday: K-State Links
- Tuesday: Beyond the Box Score Offensive Preview
- Wednesday: Beyond the Box Score Defensive Preview
- Wednesday: One of the greatest Rock M Roundtables ever...EVER
- Friday: Video love
2009 BTBS Projections
| Date | Opponent | Proj. W/L | Margin | Record | Conf. Rec. |
| 9/5 | UMass | W | +22.6 | 1-0 | |
| 9/12 | at UL-Lafayette | W | +6.5 | 2-0 | |
| 9/19 | at UCLA | L | -9.9 | 2-1 | |
| 9/26 | Tennessee Tech | W | +36.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10/3 | vs Iowa State | W | +7.1 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| 10/10 | at Texas Tech | L | -9.8 | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| 10/17 | Texas A&M | W | +2.1 | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| 10/24 | Colorado | W | +8.9 | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| 10/31 | at Oklahoma | L | -22.6 | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| 11/7 | Kansas | L | -5.4 | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| 11/14 | Missouri | W | +0.5 | 7-4 | 4-3 |
| 11/21 | at Nebraska | L | -9.0 | 7-5 | 4-4 |
So there you go. With two 1-AA games, a probably winnable game at UL-Lafayette, and a VERY favorable conference home slate, K-State could go 3-1 at home in conference and probably get to six wins just like that. Of course, six wins won't get them bowling because of the two 1-AA FCS teams, but seven will, and potentially tight rivalry games against Kansas and Missouri could get them there.
One thing I like to do is add or subtract 6-7 points to/from the projection to see what the impact is if a team is better or worse than expected. If KSU is better than expected, it really only brings one more win into the mix--Kansas. If they're worse than the numbers project, they could lose to ULL, ATM, Missouri, and maybe Iowa State. So we're looking at a range of 3-9 to 8-4 for 2009. I'd say 6-6 is more likely than 7-5, but there's still a very clear path to a .500 record for Bill Snyder this year despite a glaring lack of depth at the skill positions, and that has to excite K-State fans at least a little bit. Even if the team is only marginally improved, there is a defined path to bowl eligibility. Of course, lose to UL-Lafayette, and this projection gets altered just a wee bit.
Starting Monday: Iowa State Week!