Not that I'm encouraging gambling or anything, but I want to start measuring the effectiveness of the rough S&P+ projections I've come up with for 2009, so I'm going to try to look at how it does picking winners and ATS this year. With that in mind, below are the projections for every Week One FBS game. You can find spreads for the 1-AA games if you really want to, and I have included my picks for those games too, but...well, I think "Betting on 1-AA games" is Sign #6 that you're a degenerative gambler. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Big 12 picks here. All other games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs, 9/3 | 7:00pm | North Dakota State at Iowa State | Iowa State by 14.9 | N/A | |
| Saturday, 9/5 | 2:30pm | Georgia at Oklahoma State | OSU by 0.7 | OSU -5.5 | Georgia |
| Baylor at Wake Forest | Wake by 6.9 | Wake -2 | Wake Forest | ||
| 2:40pm | Illinois vs Missouri | Missouri by 10.8 | Missouri +6.5 | MISSOURI | |
| 6:00pm | Northern Colorado at Kansas | Kansas by 45.7 | N/A | ||
| Florida Atlantic at Nebraska | NU by 28.4 | NU -22 | Nebraska | ||
| BYU vs Oklahoma | OU by 16.9 | OU -22.5 | BYU | ||
| UL-Monroe at Texas | Texas by 40.9 | Texas -41! | UL-Monroe | ||
| New Mexico at Texas A&M | ATM by 8.1 | ATM -14 | New Mexico | ||
| North Dakota at Texas Tech | Tech by 35.9 | N/A | |||
| 6:10pm | UMass at Kansas State | K-State by 17.4 | N/A | ||
| Sunday, 9/6 | 6:00pm | Colorado State at Colorado | Colorado by 10.6 | CU -10.5! | Colorado |
Now's another good time to mention that I actually tamped down Mizzou's projection a little bit to account for the unique talent lost. The BTBS numbers still think underdog Mizzou wins outright, and the 17-point difference between spread and projection is about as big as there is this week. What's more impressive than that, to me, is how many of these projections are dead on with the spread. Don't know if that says good or bad things about these projections...we'll see.
Everything else after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thursday, 9/3 | 6:00pm | Troy at Bowling Green | Troy by 3.6 | Troy -7 | Bowling Green |
| Coastal Carolina at Kent State | Kent by 11.5 | N/A | |||
| South Carolina at N.C. State | N.C. State by 4.3 | NC State -5 | South Carolina | ||
| Villanova at Temple | Temple by 2.5 | N/A | |||
| 6:30pm | North Texas at Ball State | Ball State by 15.0 | Ball State -16.5 | North Texas | |
| 7:00pm | Eastern Kentucky at Indiana | Indiana by 15.0 | N/A | ||
| North Dakota State at Iowa State | Iowa State by 14.9 | N/A | |||
| 8:00pm | Utah State at Utah | Utah by 16.3 | Utah -20.5 | Utah State | |
| 9:15pm | Oregon at Boise State | Boise by 7.9 | Boise -4 | Bose State | |
| Friday, 9/4 | 7:00pm | Tulsa at Tulane | Tulsa by 18.1 | Tulsa -13.5 | Tulsa |
| 12:05am | Central Arkansas at Hawaii | Hawaii by 14.6 | N/A | ||
| Saturday, 9/5 | 11:00am | Appalachian State at East Carolina | ECU by 13.6 | N/A | |
| Miami-OH vs Kentucky | Kentucky by 16.9 | UK -15 | Kentucky | ||
| Montana State at Michigan State | State by 23.5 | N/A | |||
| Towson at Northwestern | NW'ern by 30.9 | N/A | |||
| Navy at Ohio State | tOSU by 30.9 | tOSU -21.5 | Ohio State | ||
| Akron at Penn State | PSU by 34.2 | PSU -26.5 | Penn State | ||
| Toledo at Purdue | Purdue by 8.4 | Purdue -10.5 | Toledo | ||
| Minnesota at Syracuse | Minny by 5.9 | Minny -7 | Syracuse | ||
| Liberty at West Virginia | WVU by 20.9 | N/A | |||
| 11:05am | Northern Iowa at Iowa | Iowa by 29.6 | N/A | ||
| 11:21am | Western Kentucky at Tennessee | UT by 35.4 | UT -29.5 | Tennessee | |
| 12:00pm | Jacksonville St. at Georgia Tech | Tech by 29.8 | N/A | ||
| Youngstown State at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 33.5 | N/A | |||
| 1:00pm | Nicholls State at Air Force | Air Force by 21.5 | N/A | ||
| Northeastern at Boston College | BC by 37.3 | N/A | |||
| 1:30pm | Portland State at Oregon State | OSU by 36.3 | N/A | ||
| 2:00pm | Weber State at Wyoming | Wyoming by 6.5 | N/A | ||
| 2:30pm | Western Michigan at Michigan | UM by 22.7 | UM -12.5 | MICHIGAN | |
| Jackson State at Mississippi St. | MSU by 17.8 | N/A | |||
| Nevada at Notre Dame | Nevada by 0.1 | Nevada +14 | NEVADA | ||
| Georgia at Oklahoma State | OSU by 0.7 | OSU -5.5 | Georgia | ||
| San Jose State at USC | USC by 41.2 | USC -33.5 | USC | ||
| Baylor at Wake Forest | Wake by 6.9 | Wake -2 | Wake Forest | ||
| 2:40pm | Illinois vs Missouri | Missouri by 10.8 | Missouri +6.5 | MISSOURI | |
| 3:00pm | Rice at UAB | UAB by 1.3 | UAB -6 | Rice | |
| 3:30pm | Southern Illinois at Marshall | Marshall by 11.8 | N/A | ||
| 5:00pm | Samford at UCF | UCF by 11.2 | N/A | ||
| Middle Tennessee at Clemson | Clemson by 20.5 | Clemson -18.5 | Clemson | ||
| The Citadel at North Carolina | UNC by 26.2 | N/A | |||
| William & Mary at Virginia | UVa by 21.5 | N/A | |||
| 6:00pm | Louisiana Tech at Auburn | Auburn by 14.3 | Auburn -13 | Auburn | |
| Richmond at Duke | Duke by 3.7 | N/A | |||
| Army at Eastern Michigan | EMU by 0.2 | EMU -6 | Army | ||
| Charleston S'ern at Florida | Florida by 55.1 | N/A | |||
| NW'ern State at Houston | Houston by 24.6 | N/A | |||
| Northern Colorado at Kansas | Kansas by 45.7 | N/A | |||
| Florida Atlantic at Nebraska | NU by 28.4 | NU -22 | Nebraska | ||
| UConn at Ohio | UConn by 13.1 | UConn -3.5 | UCONN | ||
| BYU vs Oklahoma | OU by 16.9 | OU -22.5 | BYU | ||
| Wofford at USF | USF by 23.9 | N/A | |||
| Alcorn State at Southern Miss | USM by 37.6 | N/A | |||
| UL-Monroe at Texas | Texas by 40.9 | Texas -41! | UL-Monroe | ||
| New Mexico at Texas A&M | ATM by 8.1 | ATM -14 | New Mexico | ||
| North Dakota at Texas Tech | Tech by 35.9 | N/A | |||
| Southern U. at UL-Lafayette | ULL by 17.0 | N/A | |||
| Northern Illinois at Wisconsin | Wiscy by 16.3 | Wiscy -16.5! | NIU | ||
| 6:05pm | Miss Valley St. at Arkansas State | ASU by 16.9 | N/A | ||
| 6:10pm | UMass at Kansas State | K-State by 17.4 | N/A | ||
| 6:30pm | Indiana State at Louisville | Louisville by 35.1 | N/A | ||
| San Diego State at UCLA | UCLA by 19.1 | UCLA -19! | UCLA | ||
| Western Carolina at Vanderbilt | Vandy by 33.4 | N/A | |||
| 7:00pm | Virginia Tech at Alabama | Bama by 11.2 | Bama -4 | Alabama | |
| Idaho at New Mexico State | NMSU by 3.2 | NMSU -2.5 | NMSU | ||
| Stephen F. Austin at SMU | SMU by 25.1 | N/A | |||
| Stanford at Washington State | Stanford by 8.0 | Stanford -16.5 | Wazzu | ||
| 8:00pm | Central Michigan at Arizona | Arizona by 12.9 | Arizona -14 | CMU | |
| Buffalo at UTEP | UTEP by 10.3 | UTEP -8 | UTEP | ||
| 9:00pm | Idaho State at Arizona State | ASU by 31.0 | N/A | ||
| Maryland at California | Cal by 11.9 | Cal -21.5 | MARYLAND | ||
| UC-Davis at Fresno State | Fresno by 27.9 | N/A | |||
| Sacramento State at UNLV | UNLV by 14.7 | N/A | |||
| 9:30pm | LSU at Washington | LSU by 22.3 | LSU -17 | LSU | |
| Sunday, 9/6 | 2:30pm | Ole Miss at Memphis | Ole Miss by 10.4 | Ole Miss -16 | Memphis |
| 6:00pm | Colorado State at Colorado | Colorado by 10.6 | CU -10.5! | Colorado | |
| Monday, 9/7 | 3:00pm | Cincinnati at Rutgers | Rutgers by 2.6 | Rutgers -6 | Cincy |
| 7:00pm | Miami-FL at Florida State | FSU by 6.2 | FSU -6.5 | Miami | |
Of the five seemingly "sure thing" games, one has a major question mark, and that is, of course, Michigan-WMU. The projections have nothing to say about the drama going on there right now, and there's absolutely no telling how Michigan's players and coaches will handle the soap opera. Of the other locks, I like Maryland quite a bit, but that's a really long road trip and there's at least a slight possibility that Cal is really, really good. Consider that much less locky than the others.