Still a day behind...you'll see picks below from the Thursday and Friday games, but...well, you'll pretty easily be able to tell that I didn't cheat. Not a good start this week.
Week Three Results: Went a mild 26-23-1 last week, but judging by how others did, maybe going a smidge over .500 this week was really a decent victory. Sometimes you'll just see crazy weeks where the best projections system in the world isn't going to do too well.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 26-23-1 (53.0%) |
79-54-1 (59.3%) |
| Big 12 | 6-4-0 (60.0%) | 17-10 (63.0%) |
| "LOCKS" | 3-3-1 (50.0%) | 8-7-1 (53.1%) |
In all, I'm perfectly happy with 59.3% overall, considering this was the first stab at both a projections system and a method for slowly phasing out the projections, week-to-week.
First, the Big 12 games.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Friday, 9/25 | 8:00pm | Missouri at Nevada | Missouri by 5.6 | Missouri -7 | |
| Saturday, 9/26 | 11:00am | Southern Miss at Kansas | KU by 3.5 (?) | KU -14 | Southern Miss (WIN) |
| 1:10pm | Tennessee Tech at Kansas State | KSU by 29.9 | N/A | ||
| 2:30pm | UTEP at Texas | Texas by 35.7 | Texas -35 |
Texas (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Army at Iowa State | ISU by 4.2 | ISU -9 | ||
| Grambling State at Oklahoma State | OSU by 37.8 | N/A | |||
| Northwestern State at Baylor | Baylor by 30.4 | N/A | |||
| UAB at Texas A&M | ATM by 3.8 | ATM -15.5 | |||
| UL-Lafayette at Nebraska | NU by 23.8 | NU -26.5 | |||
| 8:15pm | Texas Tech at Houston | Tech by 3.3 | Tech +1 |
Tech |
- I'm worried that my system is favoring the underdog too much. The Big 12 games will be a good test, as the underdog gets the nod in six of seven games. Not optimistic here.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Yesterday | 6:30pm | Ole Miss at South Carolina | Ole Miss by 4.0 | Ole Miss -3 | |
| Friday, 9/25 | 8:00pm | Missouri at Nevada | Mizzou by 5.6 | Mizzou -7 | |
| Saturday, 9/26 | 11:00am | Buffalo at Temple | Temple by 7.8 | Temple -2.5 |
Temple (WIN) |
| Rhode Island at UConn | UConn by 44.3 | N/A | |||
| Fresno State at Cincinnati | Cincy by 14.6 | Cincy -16.5 |
FSU (WIN) |
||
| Indiana at Michigan | Michigan by 17.1 | Michigan -21 |
Indiana (WIN) |
||
| LSU at Mississippi State | LSU by 22.2 | LSU -12.5 | |||
| Michigan State at Wisconsin | Wiscy by 7.2 | Wiscy -3 |
Wisconsin (WIN) |
||
| Minnesota at Northwestern | NW'ern by 0.9 | NW'ern -2.5 |
Minnesota (WIN) |
||
| North Carolina at Georgia Tech | GT by 8.8 | GT -2.5 |
Ga Tech (WIN) |
||
| South Florida at Florida State | FSU by 5.5 | FSU -14.5 | USF (WIN) | ||
| Southern Miss at Kansas | KU by 3.5 | KU -14 |
So. Miss (WIN) |
||
| 12:00pm | Marshall at Memphis | Memphis by 4.5 | Memphis -3 | ||
| 1:00pm | San Diego State at Air Force | AFA by 1.3 | AFA -16.5 |
SDSU (WIN) |
|
| Wake Forest at Boston College | BC by 6.7 | BC +2 |
BC (WIN) |
||
| 1:10pm | Tennessee Tech at Kansas State | KSU by 29.9 | N/A | ||
| 2:00pm | UNLV at Wyoming | Wyoming by 7.5 | Wyoming +5 | WYOMING (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm | Akron at Central Michigan | CMU by 4.1 | CMU -16.5 | ||
| Arkansas at Alabama | 'Bama by 12.4 | 'Bama -15.5 | |||
| California at Oregon | Oregon by 6.4 | Cal -7 | OREGON (WIN) |
||
| Central Florida at East Carolina | ECU by 9.1 | ECU -10.5 |
UCF (WIN) |
||
| McNeese State at Tulane | Tulane by 6.0 | N/A | |||
| Idaho at Northern Illinois | NIU by 14.0 | NIU -16.5 |
Idaho (WIN) |
||
| Illinois at Ohio State | tOSU by 26.8 | tOSU -14 | Ohio State (WIN) | ||
| Miami-FL at Virginia Tech | Miami by 2.0 | Miami -2.5 |
Va Tech (WIN) |
||
| Pittsburgh at N.C. State | Pitt by 3.7 | Pitt +1.5 | |||
| Rutgers at Maryland | Maryland by 6.5 | Maryland +2.5 | |||
| TCU at Clemson | Clemson by 3.9 | Clemson -3 | |||
| UTEP at Texas | Texas by 35.7 | Texas -35 |
Texas (WIN) |
||
| Western Kentucky at Navy | Navy by 24.1 | Navy -28.5 |
WKU (WIN) |
||
| 3:00pm | UL-Monroe at Florida Atlantic | FAU by 2.4 | FAU -4 |
UL-Monroe (WIN) |
|
| 3:30pm | Troy at Arkansas State | Troy by 17.7 | Troy +2 (??) | TROY (WIN) |
|
| 5:00pm | Colorado State at BYU | BYU by 21.0 | BYU -15 |
BYU (WIN) |
|
| Florida at Kentucky | Florida by 33.0 | Florida -22 |
Florida (WIN) |
||
| 6:00pm | Arizona State at Georgia | Georgia by 26.9 | Georgia -12.5 | ||
| Army at Iowa State | ISU by 4.2 | ISU -9 | |||
| Ball State at Auburn | Auburn by 27.6 | Auburn -33 |
Ball State (WIN) |
||
| Boise State at Bowling Green | Boise by 17.6 | Boise -16.5 |
Boise State (WIN) |
||
| Grambling State at Oklahoma State | OSU by 37.8 | N/A | |||
| Maine at Syracuse | 'Cuse by 19.2 | N/A | |||
| Northwestern State at Baylor | Baylor by 30.4 | N/A | |||
| Sam Houston at Tulsa | Tulsa by 34.6 | N/A | |||
| Hofstra at Western Michigan | WMU by 14.9 | N/A | |||
| N.C. Central at Duke | Duke by 27.3 | N/A | |||
| Miami-OH at Kent State | Kent by 9.0 | Kent -7 |
Kent State (WIN) |
||
| Middle Tennessee at North Texas | MTSU by 7.5 | MTSU -6.5 |
MTSU (WIN) |
||
| Ohio at Tennessee | Vols by 29.4 | Vols -21.5 | |||
| Toledo at Florida International | Toledo by 1.4 | Toledo -1 |
Toledo (WIN) |
||
| UAB at Texas A&M | ATM by 3.8 | ATM -15.5 | |||
| UL-Lafayette at Nebraska | NU by 23.8 | NU -26.5 | |||
| 6:30pm | Louisville at Utah | Utah by 14.8 | Utah -14 |
Utah (WIN) |
|
| 6:35pm | Arizona at Oregon State | OSU by 10.9 | OSU -2 | ||
| 7:00pm | Cal Poly at San Jose State | SJSU by 12.1 | N/A | ||
| Southern Utah at Utah State | USU by 23.7 | N/A | |||
| Iowa at Penn State | PSU by 13.2 | PSU -10 | |||
| Notre Dame at Purdue | Purdue by 3.4 (??) | Purdue +7 | PURDUE (WIN) |
||
| Vanderbilt at Rice | Rice by 1.7 | Rice +7.5 | |||
| 8:00pm | Washington at Stanford | Stanford by 5.5 | Stanford -7 | ||
| 8:15pm | Texas Tech at Houston | Tech by 3.3 | Tech +1 | Texas Tech (TIE) |
|
| 9:00pm | New Mexico St. at New Mexico | UNM by 9.1 | UNM -9.5 |
NMSU (WIN) |
|
| 9:15pm | Washington State at USC | USC by 37.3 | USC -45 |
Wazzu (WIN) |