This is not going to be pretty...
SSU: 5-11
| SSU | Opp |
|
| Points Per Minute |
1.34 | 1.49 |
| Points Per Possession (PPP) |
0.89 | 0.99 |
| Points Per Shot (PPS) |
1.08 | 1.32 |
| 2-PT FG% | 45.8% | 49.6% |
| 3-PT FG% | 25.9% | 36.4% |
| FT% | 65.3% | 66.1% |
| True Shooting % | 47.5% | 55.0% |
| SSU | Opp | |
| Assists/Gm | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| Steals/Gm | 7.3 | 6.6 |
| Turnovers/Gm | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO |
1.15 | 1.19 |
| SSU | Opp | |
| Expected Offensive Rebounds | 183 | 158 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 178 | 132 |
| Difference | -5 | -26 |
Ken Pomeroy Stats
| SSU Offense vs MU Defense Ranks |
|||
| SSU Offense | MU Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 318 | 12 | MU big |
| Effective FG% | 316 | 21 | MU big |
| Turnover % | 319 | 1 | MU big |
| Off. Reb. % | 156 | 285 | SSU big |
| FTA/FGA | 322 | 186 | MU big |
| MU Offense vs SSU Defense Ranks |
|||
| MU Offense | SSU Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 27 | 233 | MU big |
| Effective FG% | 27 | 255 | MU big |
| Turnover % | 70 | 58 | push |
| Off. Reb. % | 86 | 107 | push |
| FTA/FGA | 308 | 288 | push |
Where the Tigers from Savannah are weakest
This is the worst shooting team Mizzou will face all year. Five of SSU's top seven in the rotation shoot under 40%, they make one-fourth of their 3-pointers, and they don't get to the line. Bad, bad, bad. Plus, they turn the ball over way too much (uh oh), give up too many good shots, and foul too much.
Where they are best
Theirs is a high-risk defense that actually does a decent job of forcing turnovers, and they're a pretty solid defensive rebounding team, giving up almost two fewer offensive rebounds per game than expected. And they're at least average on the offensive glass. See? I can come up with something nice to say about anybody!
Oh yeah, and SSU plays at a sloooooooooooow pace. Their ridiculous 61(ish) possessions per game rank 331st in the country ... out of just 347 teams.
SSU's Season to Date
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Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)
#308 Western Illinois (52-48)
#313 Central Connecticut (53-45)
#336 Stetson (57-46)
Webber (65-51)
Virginia Wise (68-57)
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Losses
#14 Georgetown (44-63)
@ #107 St. Bonaventure (47-79)
@ #113 Creighton (62-77)
@ #124 Duquesne (44-58)
@ #126 Coastal Carolina (70-91)
@ #180 San Diego (56-63)
@ #200 The Citadel (47-54)
@ #223 Bowling Green (51-59)
@ #232 North Florida (46-57)
@ #307 Western Illinois (51-55)
vs #313 Central Connecticut (44-51)
The good news for SSU: if they score over 55, they're in great shape! Okay, maybe not. But they are 3-2 when scoring over 55 points. The only problem: they've only scored over 55 in five of 16 games. Yikes. But hey, they've only given up more than 60 five times! (Like I said, their games are played at a glacial pace ... and not 2010s-relatively-fast-moving-glaciers pace ... I'm talking about the speed of glaciers when that cliche actually came about.)
SSU Player Stats
| Player | AdjGS*/Gm | GmSc/Min | Line |
| Rashad Hassan (6'7, 215, So.) | 12.6 | 0.49 | 25.6 MPG, 10.5 PPG (50.8% FG), 5.0 RPG, 1.3 TOPG |
| Arnold Louis (6'7, 205, So.) | 11.6 | 0.46 | 25.4 MPG, 7.7 PPG (57.0% FG), 7.2 RPG, 1.7 TOPG |
| Tracy Rankins (5'10, 180, Sr.) | 9.7 | 0.29 | 33.1 MPG, 11.7 PPG (35.8% FG), 3.1 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.3 TOPG |
| Patrick Hardy (6'3, 185, Sr.) | 6.3 | 0.24 | 26.4 MPG, 4.9 PPG (36.9% FG), 3.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.7 TOPG |
| Preston Blackmon (6'0, 170, Fr.) | 5.6 | 0.20 | 28.6 MPG, 5.6 PPG (30.6% FG), 3.9 APG, 1.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 2.5 TOPG |
| Cedric Smith (6'3, 180, Fr.) | 3.2 | 0.24 | 13.5 MPG, 3.6 PPG (35.7% FG), 1.4 RPG |
| Darius Baugh (6'2, 180, Fr.) | 3.1 | 0.16 | 19.5 MPG, 6.1 PPG (30.3% FG), 2.5 RPG, 1.6 TOPG |
| Rod Mitchell (6'7, 205, Jr.) | 1.9 | 0.15 | 13.1 MPG, 2.8 PPG (57.6% FG), 1.8 RPG, 1.5 TOPG |
| Marius Chawa (6'3, 196, So.) | 0.8 | 0.08 | 9.8 MPG, 1.9 PPG (52.6% FG), 1.4 RPG |
| Glen Izevbigie (6'10, 230, Sr.) | 0.5 | 0.04 | 11.0 MPG, 1.8 PPG (50.0% FG), 1.4 RPG |
| Andrew Anderson (5'10, 170, Fr.) | -0.8 | -0.09 | 9.1 MPG, 1.1 PPG |
| Devin Stowers (6'4, 205, Sr.) | 23 minutes | ||
| Darnel Jones (6'1, 175, Fr.) | 5 minutes |
* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
- Thinking on a per-possession pace, SSU's two "bigs" (if you can call Laurence Bowers' size "big") are actually pretty good. Rashad Hassan and Arnold Louis combine for 18.2 PPG and 12.2 RPG. The problem is, aside from Georgetown, they've faced no team nearly as athletic as Mizzou, and that's an understatement.
- Another problem: their guards are horrendous, at least in terms of shooting. Preston Blackmon is a solid assists man (3.9 APG at a slow pace), but he shoots a god-awful 30.6%. That's Randy Pulley bad!
- Despite the slow pace, SSU goes 11 deep with their rotation. It would appear that fifth-year coach Horace Broadnax (what a great name!) is still trying to figure out what he's got with a relatively young overall roster (three seniors in the rotation).
- Speaking of Broadnax...
Broadnax made a name for himself during his college career by helping lead Georgetown University to the 1984 NCAA Men’s National Championship Title and as National Championship runner-ups in 1985. Horace’s Georgetown team was an incredible 115-25 over his four-year career, including 30 plus wins seasons in 1984 and 1985. After receiving his Finance degree from Georgetown in 1986, Horace continued on in his studies, obtaining his Juris Doctorate from Florida State University in 1991.
Keys to the Game
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Show Up. I always feel like the ignorant, stereotypical "big conference" fan when I say that, but it's true. This is not a good team. They have yet to beat somebody ranked better than #300 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, and they're only 3-2 against teams ranked WORSE than #300. Not good.
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Rebound!. This really is a decent rebounding team, particularly on the defensive glass. With a big, athletic team like Kansas State coming to town this weekend, this is Mizzou's last tune-up attempt to show some aggression and get their minds in the right place for the slog of Big 12 play that lies ahead.
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Pace. This is also Mizzou's last chance to show they can inflict their will and show that they can speed up a team that insists on playing as slow as humanly possible. Mizzou has shown major improvement in this regard over the last few weeks -- both Illinois and Georgia were sucked into playing how they didn't want to play, and that was very encouraging -- but ... I just cannot emphasize enough how freaking slow SSU plays. They play every game at the pace that ORU played against Mizzou. Even though this is as close to a likely win as you'll see, I still want to see a pace of at least 68-70 possessions in this game. Make them play your style.
Prediction
Mizzou speeds SSU up and makes this one pretty comfortable. The big question: who plays more, Tyler Stone or John Underwood. Another question: how many minutes does it take Steve Moore to foul out? Okay, that was mean. Sorry. Mizzou 79, SSU 51.