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Week 9 BTBS Picks

Look at me!  Technically getting this post out before Saturday!

Last Week's Results

Week 7 Season
28-23 .549 189-200-6 .486
Big 12 Games
3-3 .500 28-33 .459
Upset Picks
4-4 .500 15-23-1 .397
1-0 1.000 5-6 .455
"Feeling Safe"
2-3 .400 20-20 .500
"Feeling Queasy"
4-1 .800 22-16-1 .577
0-5 point spread
5-4 .556 54-50-1 .519
5-10 points
11-8 .579 50-57-2 .468
10-20 points 7-6 .538 38-63-1 .377
20-30 points
4-4 .500 33-23 .589
30+ points
1-1 .500 10-12 .455

At some point soon, I'm going to put up a graph of my week-to-week win percentages for this season.  I was a complete and total disaster as the preseason projections were being phased out and the real data phased in, but this is 3-4 straight high-quality weeks.  Hopefully it continues, and I'm actually able to get back to .500 at some point.

This week's picks after the jump.

Your notes:

  • "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart.  At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
  • If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type.  There are far too many of these this week.
  • Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
10/26 7:00pm Louisiana Tech at Boise State Boise by 37.4 Boise -38 Louisiana Tech (W)
10/28 6:30pm Florida State at N.C. State N.C. St. by 5.0 N.C. St. -4 NC STATE (T)
10/29 7:00pm West Virginia at Connecticut WVU by 14.3 WVU -6.5 Wvu (L)
10/30 11:00am Northwestern at Indiana NW'ern by 2.9 NW'ern -3 (!) Indiana (T)
Clemson at Boston College Clemson by 13.4 Clemson -7 Clemson (L)
Louisville at Pittsburgh Pitt by 16.6 Pitt -9 Pittsburgh (W)
Miami at Virginia Miami by 27.5 Miami -15 Miami (L)
Purdue at Illinois Illinois by 27.7 Illinois -17 Illinois (L)
Syracuse at Cincinnati Cincy by 7.7 Cincy -5.5 Cincy (L)
Oklahoma State at Kansas State OSU by 9.6 OSU -5.5 Okla St (W)
UAB at Southern Miss So Miss by 4.6 So Miss -10 Uab (W)
N. Illinois at W. Michigan NIU by 8.2 NIU -8.5 (!) W. Mich (W)
11:21am Tennessee at S. Carolina S. Caro by 39.0! S. Caro -17.5 S. Caro (LOCK) (L)
12:00pm Akron at Temple Temple by 28.4 Temple -29 (!) Akron (L)
1:00pm Kansas at Iowa State Iowa St by 23.6 Iowa St -19 Iowa State (L)
UL-Lafayette at Ohio Ohio by 12.9 Ohio -14.5 (!) UL-Lafayette (W)
San Diego St. at Wyoming SDSU by 17.5 SDSU -10 Sdsu (T)
1:30pm Tulsa at Notre Dame Irish by 15.9 Irish by 8.5 Notre Dame (L)
2:00pm North Texas at W. Kentucky WKU by 4.1 WKU -5.5 (!) N. Texas (W)
UTEP at Marshall Marshall by 10.7 Marshall -2.5 Marshall (W)
2:30pm Arizona at UCLA Arizona by 17.3 Arizona -9 Arizona (L)
Florida vs Georgia Georgia by 6.3 Georgia -3 Georgia (L)
Missouri at Nebraska Nebraska by 0.5 Nebraska -7.5 Mizzou (L)
Wake Forest at Maryland Maryland by 17.5 Maryland -5.5 Maryland (W)
California at Oregon State Ore St by 11.0 Ore St -2.5 Oregon St (W)
Texas Tech at Texas A&M A&M by 8.8 A&M -7 (!) A&M (W)
Miami-OH at Buffalo Buffalo by 5.5 Buffalo +2.5 BUFFALO (L)
E. Carolina at C. Florida C. Florida by 6.2 C. Florida -7.5 (!) E. Carolina (L)
Bowling Green at C. Michigan CMU by 9.5 CMU -11.5 Bowling Green (W)
Michigan State at Iowa Iowa by 3.7 Iowa -6.5 Mich State (L)
Ball State at Kent State Kent St by 10.5 Kent St -10 (!) Kent State (W)
Duke at Navy Navy by 21.7 Navy -14 Navy (L)
Troy at UL-Monroe Troy by 19.3 Troy -16.5 Troy (L)
SMU at Tulane SMU by 11.8 SMU -7.5 Smu (W)
3:00pm San Jose St at New Mexico St SJSU by 9.0 SJSU -3.5 Sjsu (L)
Toledo at E. Michigan Toledo by 3.1 Toledo -10.5 E. Michigan (L)
Florida Int'l at Florida Atlantic FIU by 7.5 FIU -4.5 Fla Int'l (L)
5:00pm New Mexico at Colorado State CSU by 12.0 CSU -16 New Mexico (L)
Auburn at Ole Miss Auburn by 22.3 Auburn -7 Auburn (W)
6:00pm Vanderbilt at Arkansas Arkansas by 24.0 Arkansas -20.5 Arkansas (W)
Washington St at Arizona St ASU by 22.7 ASU -21 (!) Arizona St (W)
Houston at Memphis Houston by 14.9 Houston -13.5 (!) Houston (W)
Baylor at Texas Texas by 4.9 Texas -7 Baylor (W)
Stanford at Washington Stanford by 11.0 Stanford -7.5 Stanford (W)
Kentucky at Mississippi State Miss St by 3.0 Miss St -6.5 Kentucky (L)
6:30pm Utah at Air Force Utah by 7.9 Utah -7 (!) Utah (L)
7:00pm Oregon at USC USC by 4.7 USC +7 USC (L)
Ohio State at Minnesota Ohio St by 34.0 Ohio St -25.5 Ohio State (W)
Michigan at Penn State Michigan by 9.1 Michigan -2.5 Michigan (L)
8:15pm Colorado at Oklahoma OU by 20.8 OU -24 Colorado (L)
9:30pm Utah State at Nevada Nevada by 23.9 Nevada -26 Utah State (W)
10:00pm TCU at UNLV TCU by 45.7 TCU -35 Tcu (W)
11:30pm Idaho at Hawaii Hawaii by 26.1 Hawaii -14 Hawaii (W)

Picks I am Feeling Safest About:

  1. South Carolina -17.5 Tennessee.  Tennessee gets a little worse each week, and my numbers love South Carolina.

  2. Miami -15 Virginia.  Would have figured this would have been about a 22-23 point line, even in Charlottesville.

  3. Hawaii -14 Idaho.  I have no idea why, but Idaho has been getting more love than it deserves from the Vegas lines all year.  This should also be 22-23 points.

    And yes, I realize I've now picked three games in the deadly "10-20 point line" range.  It's like I'm going out of my way to make the "safe" picks suck.

  4. Maryland -5.5 Wake Forest.  Really?  5.5 points?  At home?  Maryland's not great, but ... really?

  5. Ohio State -25.5 Minnesota.  Ohio State has just been money on these big lines, and against teams with coaches, much less one without one...

Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:

  1. Mizzou +7.5 Nebraska.  Why mess with tradition?

  2. Indiana +3 Northwestern.  I don't love Northwestern, but ... well ... I don't love Indiana, to say the least.

  3. Colorado +24 Oklahoma.  Oklahoma's pissed off, and I smell 52-10.

  4. Baylor +7 Texas.  I really hope I'm wrong (come on, Hot Tub Griffin III!!!), but I think Pissed Off And Good Texas shows up in this one.

  5. Illinois -17 Purdue.  I like Illinois quite a bit this year, but 17's just too high.  Purdue's schizo, though, so anything between a Purdue win and Illinois by 25 won't be too surprising.