Look at me! Technically getting this post out before Saturday!
Last Week's Results
| Week 7 | Season | |||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
28-23 | .549 | 189-200-6 | .486 |
| Big 12 Games |
3-3 | .500 | 28-33 | .459 |
| Upset Picks |
4-4 | .500 | 15-23-1 | .397 |
| "LOCKS" |
1-0 | 1.000 | 5-6 | .455 |
| "Feeling Safe" |
2-3 | .400 | 20-20 | .500 |
| "Feeling Queasy" |
4-1 | .800 | 22-16-1 | .577 |
| 0-5 point spread |
5-4 | .556 | 54-50-1 | .519 |
| 5-10 points |
11-8 | .579 | 50-57-2 | .468 |
| 10-20 points | 7-6 | .538 | 38-63-1 | .377 |
| 20-30 points |
4-4 | .500 | 33-23 | .589 |
| 30+ points |
1-1 | .500 | 10-12 | .455 |
At some point soon, I'm going to put up a graph of my week-to-week win percentages for this season. I was a complete and total disaster as the preseason projections were being phased out and the real data phased in, but this is 3-4 straight high-quality weeks. Hopefully it continues, and I'm actually able to get back to .500 at some point.
This week's picks after the jump.
Your notes:
- "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart. At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
- If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type. There are far too many of these this week.
- Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| 10/26 | 7:00pm | Louisiana Tech at Boise State | Boise by 37.4 | Boise -38 | Louisiana Tech (W) |
| 10/28 | 6:30pm | Florida State at N.C. State | N.C. St. by 5.0 | N.C. St. -4 | NC STATE (T) |
| 10/29 | 7:00pm | West Virginia at Connecticut | WVU by 14.3 | WVU -6.5 | Wvu (L) |
| 10/30 | 11:00am | Northwestern at Indiana | NW'ern by 2.9 | NW'ern -3 (!) | Indiana (T) |
| Clemson at Boston College | Clemson by 13.4 | Clemson -7 | Clemson (L) |
||
| Louisville at Pittsburgh | Pitt by 16.6 | Pitt -9 | Pittsburgh (W) |
||
| Miami at Virginia | Miami by 27.5 | Miami -15 | Miami (L) |
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| Purdue at Illinois | Illinois by 27.7 | Illinois -17 | Illinois (L) | ||
| Syracuse at Cincinnati | Cincy by 7.7 | Cincy -5.5 | Cincy (L) | ||
| Oklahoma State at Kansas State | OSU by 9.6 | OSU -5.5 | Okla St (W) |
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| UAB at Southern Miss | So Miss by 4.6 | So Miss -10 | Uab (W) | ||
| N. Illinois at W. Michigan | NIU by 8.2 | NIU -8.5 (!) | W. Mich (W) | ||
| 11:21am | Tennessee at S. Carolina | S. Caro by 39.0! | S. Caro -17.5 | S. Caro (LOCK) (L) | |
| 12:00pm | Akron at Temple | Temple by 28.4 | Temple -29 (!) | Akron (L) | |
| 1:00pm | Kansas at Iowa State | Iowa St by 23.6 | Iowa St -19 | Iowa State (L) | |
| UL-Lafayette at Ohio | Ohio by 12.9 | Ohio -14.5 (!) | UL-Lafayette (W) | ||
| San Diego St. at Wyoming | SDSU by 17.5 | SDSU -10 | Sdsu (T) |
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| 1:30pm | Tulsa at Notre Dame | Irish by 15.9 | Irish by 8.5 | Notre Dame (L) | |
| 2:00pm | North Texas at W. Kentucky | WKU by 4.1 | WKU -5.5 (!) | N. Texas (W) | |
| UTEP at Marshall | Marshall by 10.7 | Marshall -2.5 | Marshall (W) | ||
| 2:30pm | Arizona at UCLA | Arizona by 17.3 | Arizona -9 | Arizona (L) | |
| Florida vs Georgia | Georgia by 6.3 | Georgia -3 | Georgia (L) | ||
| Missouri at Nebraska | Nebraska by 0.5 | Nebraska -7.5 | Mizzou (L) | ||
| Wake Forest at Maryland | Maryland by 17.5 | Maryland -5.5 | Maryland (W) | ||
| California at Oregon State | Ore St by 11.0 | Ore St -2.5 | Oregon St (W) | ||
| Texas Tech at Texas A&M | A&M by 8.8 | A&M -7 (!) | A&M (W) | ||
| Miami-OH at Buffalo | Buffalo by 5.5 | Buffalo +2.5 | BUFFALO (L) | ||
| E. Carolina at C. Florida | C. Florida by 6.2 | C. Florida -7.5 (!) | E. Carolina (L) | ||
| Bowling Green at C. Michigan | CMU by 9.5 | CMU -11.5 | Bowling Green (W) | ||
| Michigan State at Iowa | Iowa by 3.7 | Iowa -6.5 | Mich State (L) | ||
| Ball State at Kent State | Kent St by 10.5 | Kent St -10 (!) | Kent State (W) | ||
| Duke at Navy | Navy by 21.7 | Navy -14 | Navy (L) | ||
| Troy at UL-Monroe | Troy by 19.3 | Troy -16.5 | Troy (L) | ||
| SMU at Tulane | SMU by 11.8 | SMU -7.5 | Smu (W) | ||
| 3:00pm | San Jose St at New Mexico St | SJSU by 9.0 | SJSU -3.5 | Sjsu (L) | |
| Toledo at E. Michigan | Toledo by 3.1 | Toledo -10.5 | E. Michigan (L) | ||
| Florida Int'l at Florida Atlantic | FIU by 7.5 | FIU -4.5 | Fla Int'l (L) | ||
| 5:00pm | New Mexico at Colorado State | CSU by 12.0 | CSU -16 | New Mexico (L) | |
| Auburn at Ole Miss | Auburn by 22.3 | Auburn -7 | Auburn (W) | ||
| 6:00pm | Vanderbilt at Arkansas | Arkansas by 24.0 | Arkansas -20.5 | Arkansas (W) | |
| Washington St at Arizona St | ASU by 22.7 | ASU -21 (!) | Arizona St (W) | ||
| Houston at Memphis | Houston by 14.9 | Houston -13.5 (!) | Houston (W) | ||
| Baylor at Texas | Texas by 4.9 | Texas -7 | Baylor (W) | ||
| Stanford at Washington | Stanford by 11.0 | Stanford -7.5 | Stanford (W) | ||
| Kentucky at Mississippi State | Miss St by 3.0 | Miss St -6.5 | Kentucky (L) | ||
| 6:30pm | Utah at Air Force | Utah by 7.9 | Utah -7 (!) | Utah (L) | |
| 7:00pm | Oregon at USC | USC by 4.7 | USC +7 | USC (L) | |
| Ohio State at Minnesota | Ohio St by 34.0 | Ohio St -25.5 | Ohio State (W) | ||
| Michigan at Penn State | Michigan by 9.1 | Michigan -2.5 | Michigan (L) | ||
| 8:15pm | Colorado at Oklahoma | OU by 20.8 | OU -24 | Colorado (L) | |
| 9:30pm | Utah State at Nevada | Nevada by 23.9 | Nevada -26 | Utah State (W) | |
| 10:00pm | TCU at UNLV | TCU by 45.7 | TCU -35 | Tcu (W) | |
| 11:30pm | Idaho at Hawaii | Hawaii by 26.1 | Hawaii -14 | Hawaii (W) |
Picks I am Feeling Safest About:
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South Carolina -17.5 Tennessee. Tennessee gets a little worse each week, and my numbers love South Carolina.
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Miami -15 Virginia. Would have figured this would have been about a 22-23 point line, even in Charlottesville.
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Hawaii -14 Idaho. I have no idea why, but Idaho has been getting more love than it deserves from the Vegas lines all year. This should also be 22-23 points.
And yes, I realize I've now picked three games in the deadly "10-20 point line" range. It's like I'm going out of my way to make the "safe" picks suck.
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Maryland -5.5 Wake Forest. Really? 5.5 points? At home? Maryland's not great, but ... really?
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Ohio State -25.5 Minnesota. Ohio State has just been money on these big lines, and against teams with coaches, much less one without one...
Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:
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Mizzou +7.5 Nebraska. Why mess with tradition?
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Indiana +3 Northwestern. I don't love Northwestern, but ... well ... I don't love Indiana, to say the least.
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Colorado +24 Oklahoma. Oklahoma's pissed off, and I smell 52-10.
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Baylor +7 Texas. I really hope I'm wrong (come on, Hot Tub Griffin III!!!), but I think Pissed Off And Good Texas shows up in this one.
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Illinois -17 Purdue. I like Illinois quite a bit this year, but 17's just too high. Purdue's schizo, though, so anything between a Purdue win and Illinois by 25 won't be too surprising.