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Early Saturday Live Thread and Week 10 BTBS Picks!

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I crashed to an epic degree last night, so my streak of weeks in which I got these picks out before Saturday ends at ... one.

Last Week's Results

Week 9 Season
24-26-3 .472
213-226-9 .485
Big 12 Games
3-3 .500 31-36 .463
Upset Picks
0-2-1 .167 15-25-2 .381
0-1 .000 5-7 .417
"Feeling Safe"
3-2 .600 23-22 .511
"Feeling Queasy"
2-2-1 .500 24-18-1 .570
0-5 point spread
2-5-2 .333 56-55-1 .504
5-10 points
12-11-1 .521 62-68-3 .477
10-20 points 4-8 .333 42-71-1 .373
20-30 points
4-2 .667
37-25 .597
30+ points
1-1 .500 11-13 .458

After nice progress, last week was a water-treading week of sorts ... an 5-12-2 start doomed me, but a 10-5 finish made things respectable.  Most categories hovered right around .500, but the 10-20 point range continued its massacre of my 2010 season.  Take the 10-20 point spread out of my results, and I'm sitting at 171-155-8 (.524) ... which, considering my horrible job of phasing out projections and phasing in real numbers, isn't terrible.  My struggle in that range tells me I still haven't pinpointed the best way to estimate just how much better Team A is than Team B -- my head-to-head numbers are just fine, but the range is still a struggle.  We'll see I'm able to actually figure out in the offseason.

This week's picks after the jump.

Your notes:

  • "LOCKS" signify games where the spread and projection are more than 17 points apart.  At this point, LOCKS are rare, as Vegas seems to have hacked into my damn computer.
  • If there is a "(!)" next to the spread, that means the projection and spread are within 2 points of each other ... and you should probably lay off of these picks if you are the betting type.  There are far too many of these this week.
  • Verdicts in all caps signify games where the underdog is picked to win straight up.
Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
11/2 6:00pm Middle Tennessee at Arkansas St. Ark. St. by 12.6 Ark. St. -1.5 Ark. St. (W)
11/3 6:00pm Rutgers at S. Florida S. Fla. by 13.5 S. Fla. -10 Rutgers (L)
11/4 6:30pm Buffalo at Ohio Ohio by 12.2 Ohio -15.5 Buffalo (L)
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech Va Tech by 27.5 Va. Tech -13 Va Tech (L)
11/5 5:00pm W. Michigan at C. Michigan C. Mich by 2.5 C. Mich -3.5 (!) W. Mich (L)
7:00pm C. Florida at Houston C. Florida by 9.8 C. Florida -2 C. Florida (W)
11/6 11:00am Iowa at Indiana Iowa by 31.2 Iowa -17 Iowa
Minnesota at Michigan St. Mich. St. by 31.3 Mich. St. -24 Mich. St.
Illinois at Michigan Michigan by 0.02 Michigan -3 Illinois
Virginia at Duke Duke by 1.9 Duke +1 DUKE
Louisville at Syracuse 'Cuse by 6.5 'Cuse -6 (!) Syracuse
N.C. State at Clemson N.C. St. by 1.8 N.C. St. +3.5 N.C. STATE
Air Force at Army AFA by 2.6 AFA -7 Army
Maryland at Miami Miami by 19.9 Miami -8 Miami
Wisconsin at Purdue Wiscy by 30.2 Wiscy -20 Wisconsin
11:21am Florida at Vanderbilt Florida by 14.6 Florida -14 (!) Florida
11:30am Baylor at Oklahoma St. OSU by 16.0 OSU -7 Okla St.
12:00pm Akron at Ball State Ball St. by 8.1 Ball St. -13.5 Akron
1:00pm Rice at Tulsa Tulsa by 18.0 Tulsa -17.5 (!) Tulsa
UNLV at BYU BYU by 19.1 BYU -18 (!) BYU
Colorado at Kansas Buffs by 21.0 Buffs -8.5 Colorado
Temple at Kent State Temple by 10.4 Temple -3 Temple
2:00pm New Mexico St. at Utah St. Utah St. by 27.3 Utah St. -18 Utah State
2:30pm Washington at Oregon Oregon by 24.1 Oregon -35 Washington
N. Carolina at Florida St. Fla. St. by 9.6 Fla. St. -10.5 N .Carolina
Nebraska at Iowa State Nebraska by 29.4 Nebraska -18 Nebraska
Hawaii at Boise State Boise St. by 22.3 Boise St. -21 (!) Boise St.
Alabama at LSU Alabama by 5.4 Alabama -6.5 (!) LSU
Navy at E. Carolina E. Carolina by 3.8 E. Carolina -3 (!) E. Carolina
Boston College at Wake Forest BC by 10.3 BC -3 BC
Northwestern at Penn State Penn St. by 10.5 Penn St. -6 Penn State
TCU at Utah TCU by 3.9 TCU -5 (!) Utah
Southern Miss at Tulane So Miss by 4.9 So Miss -9.5 Tulane
3:00pm California at Washington State Cal by 13.3 Cal -14.5 (!) Wazzu
Fresno State at Louisiana Tech La Tech by 4.3 PICK La Tech
3:15pm Marshall at UAB UAB by 14.4 UAB -9.5 Uab
3:30pm Florida Atlantic at W. Kentucky FAU by 5.5 FAU -2.5 Fla. Atlantic
4:00pm Nevada at Idaho Nevada by 16.5 Nevada -11 Nevada
5:00pm Wyoming at New Mexico Wyoming by 9.6 Wyoming -9 (!) Wyoming
6:00pm Oregon State at UCLA Oregon St by 15.7 Oregon St -5 Ore. St.
UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss Ole Miss by 21.9 Ole Miss -28 UL-Lafayette
Oklahoma at Texas A&M OU by 9.4 OU -3 Oklahoma
Troy at North Texas Troy by 7.9 Troy -11.5 N. Texas
Arkansas at S. Carolina S. Carolina by 10.9 S. Carolina -3 S. Carolina
6:30pm UL-Monroe at Florida Int'l FIU by 17.1 FIU -9.5 Fla Int'l
7:00pm Missouri at Texas Tech Missouri by 21.2 Missouri -4 Mizzou (LOCK)
Arizona at Stanford Stanford by 8.0 Stanford -9.5 (!) Arizona
Tennessee at Memphis Tennessee by 19.1 Tennessee -20 (!) Memphis
Texas at Kansas State K-State by 1.8 K-State +3.5 K-STATE
8:05pm SMU at UTEP SMU by 16.9 SMU -7 Smu
9:00pm Colorado St. at San Diego St. SDSU by 20.1 SDSU -17.5 Sdsu
9:30pm Arizona State at USC USC by 14.4 USC -5.5 Usc

Picks I am Feeling Safest About:

  1. BC -3 Wake Forest.  No idea why anybody wouldn't be favored by at least 10 over Wake right now.

  2. Boise State -21 Hawaii.  I like Hawaii a lot, but Boise eventually pulls away.

  3. Miami -8 Maryland.  I have no idea why, but I think Miami still handles this without Jacory Harris.

  4. Oklahoma State -7 Baylor.  OSU's offense is good, and their defense is mediocre.  Baylor's offense is good, and their defense is god-awful.  I'm rooting for Hot Tub Griffin ... but he's going to have to be pretty incredible today.

  5. SMU -7 UTEP.  UTEP's defense is ... not good enough to keep them close in this one.

Picks I am Feeling Queasiest About:

  1. Washington +35 Oregon.  Not that Jake Locker is that great, but let's just say I'd be queasy about this pick with Jake Locker playing.

  2. Tulane +9.5 Southern Miss.  Southern Miss is pretty hot right now, and Tulane's not good enough to stay within 10 unless USM regresses.

  3. Washington State +14.5 California.  If Cal is better than their opponent, they win by 50.  If they are worse, they lose by 50.  (Slight exaggeration.)  Cal's better than Wazzu, so...

  4. Mizzou (LOCK) +4 Texas Tech.  I was completely okay with this pick until it reached "LOCK" status.  Now I'm petrified.

  5. Memphis +20 Tennesse.  I mean ... Tennessee's not good ... but Memphis is turrrrible.