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Your Trifecta: Oriakhi-Bowers-Jankovic
First 3:45: Tennessee State 10, Mizzou 8
Next 16:15: Mizzou 15, Tennessee State 10
Next 7:30: Mizzou 14, Tennessee State 3
Next 4:30: Mizzou 8, Tennessee State 5
Next 3:15: Mizzou 15, Tennessee State 3
This was a weird game. Yes, it followed the typical "Mizzou hits a first-half funk, then lays the hammer down in the second half" script; beyond that, though, the pace seemed to change constantly, as did the effectiveness of the offenses, the physicality ... the personality of the game changed with each TV timeout. But I think we've learned by now that this long, physical, deep and, yes, sloppy Mizzou team can thrive with this type of style. Hope you enjoyed last year's aesthetics because they aren't coming back anytime soon.
Mizzou 68, Tennessee State 38
| Mizzou |
TSU | |
| Pace (No. of Possessions) | 65.3 | |
| Points Per Possession (PPP) | 1.04 | 0.58 |
| Points Per Shot (PPS) | 1.28 | 0.60 |
| 2-PT FG% | 55.9% | 23.1% |
| 3-PT FG% | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| FT% | 78.9% | 40.0% |
| True Shooting % | 55.4% | 29.1% |
| Mizzou | TSU | |
| Assists | 15 | 8 |
| Steals | 4 | 7 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 12 |
|
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO |
1.00 | 1.25 |
| Mizzou | TSU | |
| Expected Offensive Rebounds | 11 | 17 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 14 | 11 |
| Difference | +3 | -6 |
I Still Don't Know What To Think About This Defense
Unless Jabari Brown is ready to immediately become something pretty impressive -- and it would be unfair of us to expect that -- this offense is what it is: a team with quite a few players who could get hot but only who probably will (Laurence Bowers). The defense is going to have to be stout for Mizzou to live up to its current poll ranking, and right now it is ... and isn't. Inside the arc, Mizzou is one of the best FG% defenses in the country. They proved that once again yesterday. But whether you gauge 3-point defense with attempts or percentage (and yes, Ken Pomeroy, you have swung me over to the "attempts" side), Mizzou both allows a ton of 3-point attempts and a decent percentage. Mizzou rebounds wonderfully but forces minimal turnovers. Great, iffy, great, iffy. But one thing is nearing certainty: If you aren't making your 3-pointers (no matter how many you attempt), you are really going to struggle to beat Missouri. This says different things about Mizzou's two big upcoming games -- Illinois can take, and make 3-pointers all night, while UCLA really does neither.
Mizzou Player Stats
(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)
| Player |
AdjGS | GmSc/Min | Line |
| Alex Oriakhi | 19.7 | 0.73 | 27 Min, 15 Pts (5-7 FG, 5-6 FT), 10 Reb (2 Off), 3 Blk, 2 TO |
| Laurence Bowers | 19.3 | 0.71 | 27 Min, 18 Pts (8-15 FG, 1-3 3PT, 1-2 FT), 10 Reb (4 Off), 2 Blk, 2 TO |
| Stefan Jankovic | 15.9 | 1.00 | 16 Min, 14 Pts (4-7 FG, 2-5 3PT, 4-4 FT), 5 Reb (2 Off) |
| Negus Webster-Chan | 7.8 | 0.25 | 31 Min, 7 Pts (2-5 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT), 8 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 TO |
| Phil Pressey | 3.2 | 0.11 | 29 Min, 5 Pts (1-4 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT), 3 Ast, 2 TO |
| Keion Bell | 2.1 | 0.14 | 15 Min, 4 Pts (2-2 FG), 3 Ast, 2 Reb, 4 TO |
| Tony Criswell | 0.7 | 0.04 | 17 Min, 2 Pts (1-4 FG, 0-1 3PT, 0-1 FT), 4 Reb (2 Off), 2 Ast, 2 TO |
| Danny Feldmann | 0.4 | 0.19 | 2 Min, 0 Pts |
| Ryan Rosburg | 0.2 | 0.04 | 7 Min, 2 Pts (1-3 FG) |
| Dominique Bull | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1 Min |
| Corey Haith | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1 Min |
| Earnest Ross | -3.8 | -0.14 | 27 Min, 1 Pts (0-6 FG, 0-4 3PT, 1-2 FT), 4 Reb, 3 Stl, 4 TO |
| Player | Usage% | Floor% | Touches/ Poss. |
%Pass | %Shoot | %Fouled | %T/O |
| Oriakhi | 21% | 51% | 2.2 | 30% | 36% | 24% | 10% |
| Bowers | 33% | 42% | 2.8 | 24% | 61% | 6% | 8% |
| Jankovic | 27% | 52% | 1.9 | 0% | 69% | 31% | 0% |
| Webster-Chan | 13% | 41% | 3.2 | 73% | 16% | 5% | 6% |
| Pressey | 12% | 33% | 2.7 | 70% | 16% | 6% | 8% |
| Bell | 20% | 41% | 4.8 | 75% | 8% | 0% | 17% |
| Criswell | 19% | 22% | 3.4 | 63% | 22% | 4% | 11% |
| Rosburg | 21% | 28% | 1.3 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Ross | 20% | 7% | 2.0 | 34% | 34% | 9% | 23% |
- Goodness, Earnest Ross is lost right now.
- Goodness, Laurence Bowers is playing some consistent ball right now.
- Goodness, Stefan Jankovic is a fun wrecking ball. You can tell he just makes Frank Haith nervous (and for very good reason -- he is deliciously out of control sometimes), but Haith still put him in to try to light a spark in the second half, and he very much did.
- Nice game from NWC. Not a great game, but he's figuring out more and more ways to contribute without scoring. That will be even better when, uh, the scoring comes.
- Haith really does have a lot of options. He only really knows that Laurence Bowers is going to show up in any given games, but he seems to know who is capable of what. In the last game, Mizzou needed better energy, so Haith turned to Keion Bell and Tony Criswell. Yesterday, Mizzou needed another offensive weapon, so he gave Jankovic an extended look. For better and for worse, this team really is the polar opposite of last year's squad.
- And yes, I am giving Phil Pressey a bit of a free pass right now. His jumper is off, and like Haith, he really doesn't know who he can rely on from game to game.
Summary
So ends the Jabari Brown-less portion of the Missouri basketball schedule. At some point this week, we'll take a look at Mizzou's season averages and what we can learn from them. And a week from tomorrow, Brown will make his debut. It's the slow part of the season, but starting next Monday things get rolling.
---
AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.
Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.
Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For Steve Moore, 1.30. You get the idea.
Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.