Study Hall: Mizzou 88, Oklahoma State 70

Your Trifecta: English-Denmon-PPressey. Your winner: nobody. The only people who had English No. 1 also had Ratliffe No. 2, which I found interesting.

So that's pretty much the perfect way to start what you hope will be a three-games-in-three-days stretch: pound the living daylights out of your opponent in the opening 10-15 minutes, then coast. Missouri's defense did let up a bit, and as I commented on Twitter, Oklahoma State really does have the distinction of being easily the best team in the country when down 30; but this one still worked out just about perfectly.

Mizzou 88, Oklahoma State 70

	Mizzou	OSU
Pace (No. of Possessions)	65.8
Points Per Minute	2.20	1.75
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.34	1.06
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.49	1.25
2-PT FG%	66.7%	51.5%
3-PT FG%	41.2%	39.1%
FT%	73.3%	69.2%
True Shooting %	67.1%	56.7%
	Mizzou	OSU
Assists	22	15
Steals	8	5
Turnovers	10	9
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	3.00	2.22
	Mizzou	OSU
Expected Offensive Rebounds	9	11
Offensive Rebounds	10	4
Difference	+1	-7

A Lot To Like

Even with OSU shooting better in the second half (and posting a solid 56.7% True Shooting percentage for the game), there is still so much to like about this box score:

• An Expected Rebounding Margin of +8.
• 22 assists.
• 8 steals.
• 66.7% shooting on 2-pointers.
• 41.2% shooting on 3-pointers.
• 1.34 points per possession -- nobody in the country can hang with Missouri if they are scoring 1.34 points per possession.

And of course, there is even more to like about the first half box score...

FIRST HALF: Mizzou 49, Oklahoma State 24

	Mizzou	OSU
Pace (No. of Possessions)	34.6
Points Per Minute	2.45	1.20
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.42	0.69
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	0.96
2-PT FG%	61.5%	31.3%
3-PT FG%	41.7%	44.4%
FT%	50.0%	50.0%
True Shooting %	61.6%	44.8%
	Mizzou	OSU
Assists	13	4
Steals	7	2
Turnovers	3	8
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	6.67	0.75
	Mizzou	OSU
Expected Offensive Rebounds	6	6
Offensive Rebounds	8	0
Difference	+2	-6

That's Just ... Pretty

Aside from a couple of the shooting numbers (Mizzou's FT%, OSU's 3PT%), this is very nearly perfect. I want to frame this or something. OSU was completely cut off on the offensive glass, Mizzou's BCI was almost 9x better than OSU's, and Mizzou averaged a cool 1.42 points per possession. They were focused, they were intense, and they were merciless ... for 18 minutes or so, at least.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player	AdjGS	GmSc/Min	Line
Kim English	26.3	0.88	30 Min, 27 Pts (11-13 FG, 2-3 3PT, 3-4 FT), 6 Reb, 2 Stl
Marcus Denmon	19.0	0.61	31 Min, 24 Pts (9-14 FG, 3-6 3PT, 3-3 FT), 8 Reb, 2 TO
Phil Pressey	15.3	0.57	27 Min, 4 Pts (2-3 FG), 12 Ast, 5 Stl, 5 Reb, 3 TO
Mike Dixon	10.4	0.36	29 Min, 13 Pts (5-11 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT), 7 Ast, 3 TO
Ricardo Ratliffe	8.0	0.35	23 Min, 11 Pts (5-10 FG, 1-2 FT), 6 Reb (3 Off)
Matt Pressey	4.6	0.17	22 Min, 7 Pts (3-7 FG, 1-4 3PT), 4 Reb
Andrew Jones	2.2	0.54	4 Min, 2 Pts (2-4 FT), 3 Reb
Steve Moore	1.0	0.05	22 Min, 0 Pts (0-1 FG), 4 Reb (2 Off), 2 Blk, 2 TO
Jarrett Sutton	0.0	0.00	6 Min
Andy Rosburg	-0.4	-0.41	1 Min, 1 PF

• I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Marcus Denmon and Kim English combine for 51 points on 20-for-27 shooting (6-for-7 from the line) in each game the rest of the tournament, good things will happen. I know, a ballsy thing to say. That's just the way I am.
• Phil Pressey: 12 assists, five steals, three field goal attempts. 78% point guard.
• The refs just weren't calling charges yesterday, were they? Hopefully the conference was saving the charge-heavy refs for the semis and finals.

Player	Usage%	Floor%	Touches/ Poss.	%Pass	%Shoot	%Fouled	%T/O
English	26%	74%	2.3	26%	57%	17%	0%
Denmon	30%	52%	2.5	24%	56%	12%	8%
P. Pressey	12%	61%	8.7	92%	4%	0%	4%
Dixon	27%	44%	6.1	72%	19%	3%	5%
Ratliffe	25%	43%	1.6	0%	83%	17%	0%
M. Pressey	14%	37%	0.8	0%	100%	0%	0%
Moore	7%	11%	1.2	66%	11%	0%	23%

To the checklist!

Marcus Denmon's Usage% needs to be 23% or higher. (Very much so!)
Kim English's %T/O needs to be at 10% or lower. (Very much so!)
Kim English's Floor% should be at 35% or higher. (Very much so!)
Ricardo Ratliffe's %Fouled should be at least 10%. (Yes!)
Phil Pressey's Touches/Possession need to be 3.5 or better. (Very much so!)
Mike Dixon's %Pass should be 55% or higher. (Yes!)
Steve Moore's Touches/Possession should be at least 1.0. (Yes!)

A perfect seven-for-seven ... and unless it happened earlier this season and I forgot (always a possibility), this may be the first time it's happened all season. A good time for it. Now do it eight more times.

Three Keys Revisited

From yesterday's preview.

Don't Let Page Get Hot

If Keiton Page has a bad game tonight, the only way OSU can win is if either a) Mizzou hits an amazingly cold, and sustained, offensive rough patch or b) Brian Williams, Markel Brown or Cezar Guerrero get incredibly hot. Granted, (b) isn't out of the realm of possibility (Williams did have a fantastic game against Missouri in Stillwater, Brown is occasionally scary, and Guerrero is improving quickly), but you still have to like Mizzou's chances very much if Page is held to, say, fewer than 15 points.

Page made a 3-pointer on the very first possession of the game, but he missed his other three first-half attempts as OSU was falling down by 29. Then, naturally, he made five of eight in the second half with the game out of control. It's just what he does. Er, did.

'Cardo

We've been debating for a few weeks how much defense plays a role in poor 3-point shooting. All I know for sure is that Oklahoma State's defensive 3PT% for the season is pretty damn good, and that Missouri has only made 30 percent of its 3-pointers in two games against the 'Pokes. No need to get sucked into some "bombs away" game if you don't have to. Move the ball, dump it inside to Ricardo Ratliffe, and take as many shorter shots as possible. Force the inexperienced Soucek to defend without fouling. Cobbins and company will block some shots ... but not all of them. Ratliffe scored 40 points in 61 minutes versus the 'Pokes this year, and that was with Jurick involved. Make that about 60 points in 90 minutes, and Mizzou's in excellent shape.

Swing and a miss by me on this one. Ratliffe was just fine -- he pulled down a couple of second-chance opportunities early on, and he put up a decent 11 & 6, but he was not needed. My goal in this "Key" was to demonstrate how much Mizzou needed to attack the interior. They did, only with Kim English and company slashing (and getting numerous transition buckets).

Road Neutral Court Things

There will almost certainly be quite a few more Mizzou fans in attendance tonight than OSU fans (call it a hunch), but for this game, the effort stats will mean quite a bit. So we'll break out the Road Things™ template again: offensive rebounds, fouls and Phil Pressey. If these three things go in Mizzou's favor, odds are very good that the Tigers are playing again on Friday night.

Expected Offensive Rebounds: Mizzou +8
Fouls: OSU 15, Mizzou 12
Flip Pressey: 12 assists, five steals, five rebounds, four points (on three shots), three turnovers, 5.67 BCI.

That's one win (fouls) and two enormous wins (rebounds, Flip). The effort was there, the execution was there, and Flip Pressey was dominant. Do that again.

Summary

This game was fun, easy, and swift, just as an opening-round game should be for a high seed. Mizzou now gets Texas. As much as we feared a third matchup versus Iowa State, Texas competed just as well against Missouri this year, and Mizzou will need to put up a much better fight on the boards versus Clint Chapman and company if they want an easier go of it this time around.

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome. As you would expect, someone like Kim English has a high Usage%, while Steve Moore has an extremely low one.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For Steve Moore, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.