Study Hall: Mizzou 79, Georgia 62

Your Trifecta: Oriakhi-Bell-Ross. Your winner: nobody.

Aesthetically, that was ... well ... pretty much what one should have expected. But Mizzou eventually got the tempo up just enough to score some easy points. And Earnest Ross and Jabari Brown shot 9-for-18 from the field. Remember how I said Mizzou is a total hostage to their FG%? Mizzou is a total hostage to their FG%.

Mizzou 79, Georgia 62

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Mizzou	UGa
Pace (No. of Possessions)	62.6
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.29	1.02
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.46	1.35
2-PT FG%	53.1%	37.9%
3-PT FG%	40.9%	58.8%
FT%	72.0%	83.3%
True Shooting %	60.8%	60.5%
	Mizzou	UGa
Assists	14	9
Steals	9	19
Turnovers	9	4
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.56	0.68
	Mizzou	UGa
Expected Offensive Rebounds	11	9
Offensive Rebounds	13	9
Difference	+2	+0

BCI! BCI!

I realize ball-handling isn't going to be a consistent strength for this team. I realize that there's really not a No. 2 PG (though Keion Bell did have four assists last night). But I also know that, in the four games in which Missouri has beaten a "real" opponent in BCI, the average score is Mizzou 76.8, Opponent 66.5. The Tigers can win without winning the ball control battle; but when they do win that battle, they are almost guaranteed not to lose.

Hooray, Rebounding!

After three consecutive games in which Mizzou either tied or lost the rebounding battle (in terms of expected rebounds), the Tigers won again last night. Good to see. And eventually both Tony Criswell and Laurence Bowers will be available to play at the same time again. Eventually.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

College Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS	GmSc/Min	Line
Alex Oriahki	18.9	0.61	31 Min, 13 Pts (5-5 FG, 3-4 FT), 8 Reb (4 Off), 4 Blk, 2 Ast, 2 TO
Keion Bell	15.7	0.54	29 Min, 14 Pts (5-8 FG, 0-1 3PT, 4-4 FT), 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 Reb
Earnest Ross	14.0	0.54	26 Min, 15 Pts (5-10 FG, 3-5 3PT, 2-3 FT), 4 Reb (2 Off), 2 Stl
Jabari Brown	10.5	0.48	22 Min, 15 Pts (4-8 FG, 3-6 3PT, 4-6 FT), 2 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 TO
Phil Pressey	9.0	0.30	30 Min, 5 Pts (2-6 FG, 1-3 3PT), 6 Ast, 4 Stl
Tony Criswell	7.4	0.25	30 Min, 10 Pts (3-10 FG, 1-1 3PT, 3-6 FT), 6 Reb (3 Off)
Stefan Jankovic	3.9	0.36	11 Min, 7 Pts (2-5 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT), 2 Reb (2 Off), 3 PF
Ryan Rosburg	0.3	0.03	10 Min, 0 Pts
Danny Feldmann	0.0	0.00	1 Min
Negus Webster-Chan	-1.7	-0.17	10 Min, 0 Pts (0-2 3PT)

Player	Usage%	Floor%	Touches/ Poss.	%Pass	%Shoot	%Fouled	%T/O
Oriakhi	15%	64%	2.2	56%	24%	11%	10%
Bell	20%	58%	3.8	68%	23%	6%	3%
Ross	26%	41%	1.5	0%	79%	13%	8%
Brown	31%	42%	3.6	47%	32%	13%	8%
Pressey	13%	44%	4.5	83%	14%	0%	2%
Criswell	23%	29%	1.4	0%	75%	25%	0%
Jankovic	34%	35%	2.1	0%	70%	16%	14%
NWC	11%	0%	0.6	0%	100%	0%	0%

• Hell of a performance by Alex Oriakhi. When his AdjGS total is higher than his point total, Mizzou is a much, much bette team. When it isn't (as it wasn't against UCLA and SEMO), Mizzou's overall success is seriously hindered.
• Jabari Brown & Earnest Ross FG Shooting, Last 5 Games: 10-for-21 (48%), 2-for-18 (11%), 14-for-23 (61%), 5-for-20 (25%), 9-for-18 (50%). Stability!
• Stefan Jankovic in the first half: four minutes, five points, two offensive rebounds, one turnover, three fouls. That's efficient in about 19 different ways, both good and bad. Jank can only be an energy guy this season -- there is just no reliable stability there -- but he is one hell of an energy guy.
• The last time NWC had a positive AdjGS total: December 17. One month ago. Against S.C. State. He was -2.2 versus Illinois, -1.0 versus UCLA, 0.0 versus Bucknell, -0.6 versus Alabama, -9.7 versus Ole Miss and -1.7 versus Georgia. He is 1-for-10 from the floor in that time, with zero assists and six turnovers.

Three Keys Revisited

From Wednesday's preview.

Limit Caldwell-Pope

Obviously. It might seem too obvious, but it obviously stands to reason that if a player that valuable to the box score has a bad night, the team will probably struggle to make up the difference.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 15 points on 5-for-12 shooting, two rebounds, three assists, three steals, two turnovers. He's good. But he was still held below his season scoring and rebounding averages. Vincent Williams more than picked up the scoring slack -- his 23 points were the primary reason why Georgia crossed the 60-point barrier ... hell, he's the reason they crossed 50 points -- but you still typically need more than two scorers to keep up as a road underdog. KCP and Williams scored 38 points ... and the rest of the team scored 24.

Stay out of foul trouble

Without Laurence Bowers, Mizzou is still limited offensively. The Tigers need their full legion of potential scorers (namely, Jabari Brown and Earnest Ross) to avoid fouls and stay in the game, but both players might spend a decent amount of time guarding Caldwell-Pope (though my first guess is that Keion Bell gets the first shot at him). If Georgia can hinder Mizzou's lineup in this regard, the Dawgs could stay close in a really, really low-scoring affair.

Mizzou committed 16 fouls for the game (which is odd, since it felt like they were whistled that many times in the first 10 dreadful, slogging minutes of the game), and only Jankovic and Jabari Brown were called for even three. Granted, Earnest Ross was limited a bit by two different tough-looking injuries (he turned an ankle and was down for a while in the first half, and he hit the ground hard and awkwardly in the second half), but Mizzou did stay out of foul trouble.

Hit the glass, dammit

Mizzou broke even on the glass after losing the rebounding battle to both Bucknell and Alabama without Tony Criswell. With Criswell back in the lineup, things may be looking up in this regard (though losing Bowers still hurts quite a bit), but Mizzou's core identity this year is in rebounding and rather physical play. Hammer Georgia with that identity.

Mizzou: +2 in expected rebounds. Hooray!

Summary

I picked 76-59, and the score was 79-62. Excuse me while I pound my chest and drop the mic.

Okay, that was fun. Anyway, this game was about what I expected: a whistle-happy, sloooooooow affair in which Mizzou struggles to develop a rhythm but eventually pulls away to win with ease. Let's just say that I hope Mizzou very much exceeds my expectations on Saturday.

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AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For Steve Moore, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.